Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

The condensation and ordering of models of empty liquids

We consider a simple model consisting of particles with four bonding sites ("patches"), two of type A and two of type B, on the square lattice, and investigate its global phase behavior by simulations and theory. We set the interaction between B patches to zero and calculate the phase diagram as the ratio between the AB and the AA interactions, epsilon(AB)*, varies. In line with previous work, on three-dimensional off-lattice models, we show that the liquid-vapor phase diagram exhibits a re-entrant or "pinched" shape for the same range of epsilon(AB)*, suggesting that the ratio of the energy scales - and the corresponding empty fluid regime - is independent of the dimensionality of the system and of the lattice structure. In addition, the model exhibits an order-disorder transition that is ferromagnetic in the re-entrant regime. The use of low-dimensional lattice models allows the simulation of sufficiently large systems to establish the nature of the liquid-vapor critical points and to describe the structure of the liquid phase in the empty fluid regime, where the size of the "voids" increases as the temperature decreases. We have found that the liquid-vapor critical point is in the 2D Ising universality class, with a scaling region that decreases rapidly as the temperature decreases. The results of simulations and theoretical analysis suggest that the line of order-disorder transitions intersects the condensation line at a multi-critical point at zero temperature and density, for patchy particle models with a re-entrant, empty fluid, regime. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3657406]

Re-entrant phase behaviour of network fluids: A patchy particle model with temperature-dependent valence

We study a model consisting of particles with dissimilar bonding sites ("patches"), which exhibits self-assembly into chains connected by Y-junctions, and investigate its phase behaviour by both simulations and theory. We show that, as the energy cost epsilon(j) of forming Y-junctions increases, the extent of the liquid-vapour coexistence region at lower temperatures and densities is reduced. The phase diagram thus acquires a characteristic "pinched" shape in which the liquid branch density decreases as the temperature is lowered. To our knowledge, this is the first model in which the predicted topological phase transition between a fluid composed of short chains and a fluid rich in Y-junctions is actually observed. Above a certain threshold for epsilon(j), condensation ceases to exist because the entropy gain of forming Y-junctions can no longer offset their energy cost. We also show that the properties of these phase diagrams can be understood in terms of a temperature-dependent effective valence of the patchy particles. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3605703]

Three-dimensional patchy lattice model for empty fluids

The phase diagram of a simple model with two patches of type A and ten patches of type B (2A10B) on the face centred cubic lattice has been calculated by simulations and theory. Assuming that there is no interaction between the B patches the behavior of the system can be described in terms of the ratio of the AB and AA interactions, r. Our results show that, similarly to what happens for related off-lattice and two-dimensional lattice models, the liquid-vapor phase equilibria exhibit reentrant behavior for some values of the interaction parameters. However, for the model studied here the liquid-vapor phase equilibria occur for values of r lower than 1/3, a threshold value which was previously thought to be universal for 2AnB models. In addition, the theory predicts that below r = 1/3 (and above a new condensation threshold which is < 1/3) the reentrant liquid-vapor equilibria are so extreme that it exhibits a closed loop with a lower critical point, a very unusual behavior in single-component systems. An order-disorder transition is also observed at higher densities than the liquid-vapor equilibria, which shows that the liquid-vapor reentrancy occurs in an equilibrium region of the phase diagram. These findings may have implications in the understanding of the condensation of dipolar hard spheres given the analogy between that system and the 2AnB models considered here. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4771591]

Nonmonotonic Magnetic Susceptibility of Dipolar Hard-Spheres at Low Temperature and Density

We investigate, via numerical simulations, mean field, and density functional theories, the magnetic response of a dipolar hard sphere fluid at low temperatures and densities, in the region of strong association. The proposed parameter-free theory is able to capture both the density and temperature dependence of the ring-chain equilibrium and the contribution to the susceptibility of a chain of generic length. The theory predicts a nonmonotonic temperature dependence of the initial (zero field) magnetic susceptibility, arising from the competition between magnetically inert particle rings and magnetically active chains. Monte Carlo simulation results closely agree with the theoretical findings. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.110.148306

Oxorhenium Complexes Bearing the Water-Soluble Tris(pyrazol-1-yl)methanesulfonate, 1,3,5-Triaza-7-phosphaadamantane, or Related Ligands, as Catalysts for Baeyer-Villiger Oxidation of Ketones

New rhenium(VII or III) complexes [ReO3(PTA)(2)][ReO4] (1) (PTA = 1,3,5-triaza-7-phosphaadamantane), [ReO3(mPTA)][ReO4] (2) (mPTA = N-methyl-1,3,5-triaza-7-phosphaadamantane cation), [ReO3(HMT)(2)] [ReO4] (3) (HMT = hexamethylenetetramine), [ReO3(eta(2)-Tpm)(PTA)][ReO4] (4) [Tpm = hydrotris(pyrazol-1-yl)methane, HC(pz)(3), pz = pyrazolyl), [ReO3(Hpz)(HMT)][ReO4] (5) (Hpz = pyrazole), [ReO(Tpms)(HMT)] (6) [Tpms = tris(pyrazol-1-yl)methanesulfonate, O3SC(pz)(3)(-)] and [ReCl2{N2C(O)Ph} (PTA)(3)] (7) have been prepared from the Re(VII) oxide Re2O2 (1-6) or, in the case of 7, by ligand exchange from the benzoyldiazenido complex [ReCl2(N2C-(O)Ph}(Hpz)(PPh3)(2)], and characterized by IR and NMR spectroscopies, elemental analysis and electrochemical properties. Theoretical calculations at the density functional theory (DFT) level of theory indicated that the coordination of PTA to both Re(III) and Re(VII) centers by the P atom is preferable compared to the coordination by the N atom. This is interpreted in terms of the Re-PTA bond energy and hard-soft acid-base theory. The oxo-rhenium complexes 1-6 act as selective catalysts for the Baeyer-Villiger oxidation of cyclic and linear ketones (e.g., 2-methylcyclohexanone, 2-methylcyclopentanone, cyclohexanone, cyclopentanone, cyclobutanone, and 3,3-dimethyl-2-butanone or pinacolone) to the corresponding lactones or esters, in the presence of aqueous H2O2. The effects of a variety of factors are studied toward the optimization of the process.

Between theory and practice – teaching maths to elementary school students in Poland

The development of children's school achievements in mathematics is one of the most important aims of education in Poland. The results of research concerning monitoring of school achievements in maths is not optimistic. We can observe low levels of children’s understanding of the merits of maths, self-developed strategies in solving problems and practical usage of maths skills. This article frames the discussion of this problem in its psychological and didactic context and analyses the causes as they relate to school practice in teaching maths

Biaxial Nematic Order in the Hard-boomerang Fluid

We consider a fluid of hard boomerangs, each composed of two hard spherocylinders joined at their ends at an angle Psi. The resulting particle is nonconvex and biaxial. The occurence of nematic order in such a system has been investigated using Straley's theory, which is a simplificaton of Onsager's second-virial treatment of long hard rods, and by bifurcation analysis. The excluded volume of two hard boomerangs has been approximated by the sum of excluded volumes of pairs of constituent spherocylinders, and the angle-dependent second-virial coefficient has been replaced by a low-order interpolating function. At the so-called Landau point, Psi(Landau)approximate to 107.4 degrees, the fluid undergoes a continuous transition from the isotropic to a biaxial nematic (B) phase. For Psi not equal Psi(Landau) ordering is via a first-order transition into a rod-like uniaxial nematic phase (N(+)) if Psi > Psi(Landau), or a plate-like uniaxial nematic (N(-)) phase if Psi < Psi(Landau). The B phase is separated from the N(+) and N(-) phases by two lines of continuous transitions meeting at the Landau point. This topology of the phase diagram is in agreement with previous studies of spheroplatelets and biaxial ellipsoids. We have checked the accuracy of our theory by performing numerical calculations of the angle-dependent second virial coefficient, which yields Psi(Landau)approximate to 110 degrees for very long rods, and Psi(Landau)approximate to 90 degrees for short rods. In the latter case, the I-N transitions occur at unphysically high packing fractions, reflecting the inappropriateness of the second-virial approximation in this limit.

Microscopic Theory of Anchoring Transitions at the Surfaces of Pure Liquid-Crystals and their Mixtures .1. The Fowler Approximation

We have generalized earlier work on anchoring of nematic liquid crystals by Sullivan, and Sluckin and Poniewierski, in order to study transitions which may occur in binary mixtures of nematic liquid crystals as a function of composition. Microscopic expressions have been obtained for the anchoring energy of (i) a liquid crystal in contact with a solid aligning surface; (ii) a liquid crystal in contact with an immiscible isotropic medium; (iii) a liquid crystal mixture in contact with a solid aligning surface. For (iii), possible phase diagrams of anchoring angle versus dopant concentration have been calculated using a simple liquid crystal model. These exhibit some interesting features including re-entrant conical anchoring, for what are believed to be realistic values of the molecular parameters. A way of relaxing the most drastic approximation implicit in the above approach is also briefly discussed.

Simulation and theory of hybrid aligned liquid crystal films

We present a study of the effects of nanoconfinement on a system of hard Gaussian overlap particles interacting with planar substrates through the hard-needle-wall potential, extending earlier work by two of us [D. J. Cleaver and P. I. C. Teixeira, Chem. Phys. Lett. 338, 1 (2001)]. Here, we consider the case of hybrid films, where one of the substrates induces strongly homeotropic anchoring, while the other favors either weakly homeotropic or planar anchoring. These systems are investigated using both Monte Carlo simulation and density-functional theory, the latter implemented at the level of Onsager's second-virial approximation with Parsons-Lee rescaling. The orientational structure is found to change either continuously or discontinuously depending on substrate separation, in agreement with earlier predictions by others. The theory is seen to perform well in spite of its simplicity, predicting the positional and orientational structure seen in simulations even for small particle elongations.

How patchy can one get and still condense? The role of dissimilar patches in the interactions of colloidal particles

We investigate the influence of strong directional, or bonding, interactions on the phase diagram of complex fluids, and in particular on the liquid-vapour critical point. To this end we revisit a simple model and theory for associating fluids which consist of spherical particles having a hard-core repulsion, complemented by three short-ranged attractive sites on the surface (sticky spots). Two of the spots are of type A and one is of type B; the interactions between each pair of spots have strengths [image omitted], [image omitted] and [image omitted]. The theory is applied over the whole range of bonding strengths and results are interpreted in terms of the equilibrium cluster structures of the coexisting phases. In systems where unlike sites do not interact (i.e. where [image omitted]), the critical point exists all the way to [image omitted]. By contrast, when [image omitted], there is no critical point below a certain finite value of [image omitted]. These somewhat surprising results are rationalised in terms of the different network structures of the two systems: two long AA chains are linked by one BB bond (X-junction) in the former case, and by one AB bond (Y-junction) in the latter. The vapour-liquid transition may then be viewed as the condensation of these junctions and we find that X-junctions condense for any attractive [image omitted] (i.e. for any fraction of BB bonds), whereas condensation of the Y-junctions requires that [image omitted] be above a finite threshold (i.e. there must be a finite fraction of AB bonds).

Epidemiologic transition in northern Angola: discussion of cumulative results from CISA (Health Research Centre of Angola)

The 41 years of armed conflict (1961 to 2002) resulted in a poor development of the health care and education infrastructures, and forced the relocation of people to safer places, namely major urban cities like Luanda. This phase was characterized by typical demographic, nutritional and epidemiological profiles. With the end of this period Angola has been repeatedly ranked as one of the three fastest growing economies in the world, and along with the social stabilization and globalization, the country is facing the introduction of new medical technologies, improvement of health sys-tems and services, better access to them, and overall better quality of life. These changes could also be translating into socio-cultural, demographic and nutritional changes which in turn may leading to changes in the epidemiological profile of the country. Thus, the emergence of non-communicable diseases are likely to become an increasingly im-portant public health problem in Angola. Also, considering that several infectious diseases persist, our weakened health system will have to face a double burden. Thus, disease surveillance data on non-communicable diseases to determine their prevalence and impact, along with the major behavioural risk factors like consumption of tobacco, alcohol, diets and physical inactivity are urgently needed.

The Portuguese transition to democracy

On 25 April 1974 the Armed Forces Movement (MFA – Movimento das Forças Armadas) rose against the dictatorial regime that had governed Portugal for 48 years. This event was the beginning of a turbulent transition process that was to culminate in the approval of a new constitution in April 1976 and in the instauration of a Western style pluralist democracy. There are many political scientists and historians who note the original and unexpected nature of this transition; however, there are very many different interpretations with respect to the roles played by each of the actors in the process: the armed forces, the parties and political movements and the social forces/movements. The aim of this paper is to clarify this matter through an examination of the principal events of the revolution.

Mono(Eta(5)-cyclopentadienyl)metal(II) complexes with thienyl acetylide chromophores: synthesis, electrochemical studies, and first hyperpolarizabilities

A series of mono(eta(5)-cyclopentadienyl)metal-(II) complexes with nitro-substituted thienyl acetylide ligands of general formula [M(eta(5)-C5H5)(L)(C C{C4H2S}(n)NO2)] (M = Fe, L = kappa(2)-DPPE, n = 1,2; M = Ru, L = kappa(2)-DPPE, 2 PPh3, n = 1, 2; M = Ni, L = PPh3, n = 1, 2) has been synthesized and fully characterized by NMR, FT-IR, and UV-Vis spectroscopy. The electrochemical behavior of the complexes was explored by cyclic voltammetry. Quadratic hyperpolarizabilities (beta) of the complexes have been determined by hyper-Rayleigh scattering (HRS) measurements at 1500 nm. The effect of donor abilities of different organometallic fragments on the quadratic hyperpolarizabilities was studied and correlated with spectroscopic and electrochemical data. Density functional theory (DFT) and time-dependent DFT (TDDFT) calculations were employed to get a better understanding of the second-order nonlinear optical properties in these complexes. In this series, the complexity of the push pull systems is revealed; even so, several trends in the second-order hyperpolarizability can still be recognized. In particular, the overall data seem to indicate that the existence of other electronic transitions in addition to the main MLCT clearly controls the effectiveness of the organometallic donor ability on the second-order NLO properties of these push pull systems.