Scheduling of a hydro producer considering head-dependency, price scenarios and risk-aversion

In this paper, a mixed-integer quadratic programming approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem, considering head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. As new contributions to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios, and risk aversion is also incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through the conditional value-at-risk. Our approach has been applied successfully to solve a case Study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, requiring a negligible computational time.

Exposure and risk assessment in occupational exposure to fungi: aspects to consider in highly contaminated settings

Although a clear correlation between levels of fungi in the air and health impacts has not been shown in epidemiological studies, fungi must be regarded as potential occupational health hazards. Fungi can have an impact on human health in four different ways: (1) they can infect humans, (2) they may act as allergens, (3) they can be toxigenic, or (4) they may cause inflammatory reactions. Fungi of concern in occupational hygiene are mostly non-pathogenic or facultative pathogenic (opportunistic) species, but are relevant as allergens and mycotoxins producers. It is known that the exclusive use of conventional methods for fungal quantification (fungal culture) may underestimate the results due to different reasons. The incubation temperature chosen will not be the most suitable for every fungal species, resulting in the inhibition of some species and the favouring of others. Differences in fungi growth rates may also result in data underestimation, since the fungal species with higher growth rates may inhibit others species’ growth. Finally, underestimated data can result from non-viable fungal particles that may have been collected or fungal species that do not grow in the culture media used, although these species may have clinical relevance in the context. Due to these constraints occupational exposure assessment, in setings with high fungal contamination levels, should follow these steps: Apply conventional methods to obtain fungal load information (air and surfaces) regarding the most critical scenario previously selected; Guideline comparation aplying or legal requirements or suggested limits by scientific and/or technical organizations. We should also compare our results with others from the same setting (if there is any); Select the most suitable indicators for each setting and apply conventional-culture methods and also molecular tools. These methodology will ensure a more real characterization of fungal burden in each setting and, consequently, permits to identify further measures regarding assessment of fungal metabolites, and also a more adequate workers health surveillance. The methodology applied to characterize fungal burden in several occupational environments, focused in Aspergillus spp. prevalence, will be present and discussed.

Body composition, muscle strength, functional capacity, and physical disability risk in liver transplanted familial amyloidotic polyneuropathy patients

Abstract: Background: Familial amyloidotic polyneuropathy (FAP) is a neurodegenerative disease leading to sensory and motor polyneuropathies, and functional limitations. Liver transplantation is the only treatment for FAP, requiring medication that negatively affects bone and muscle metabolism. The aim of this study was to compare body composition, levels of specific strength, level of physical disability risk, and functional capacity of transplanted FAP patients (FAPTx) with a group of healthy individuals (CON). Methods: A group of patients with 48 FAPTx (28 men, 20 women) was compared with 24 CON individuals (14 men, 10 women). Body composition was assessed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, and total skeletal muscle mass (TBSMM) and skeletal muscle index (SMI) were calculated. Handgrip strength was measured for both hands as was isometric strength of quadriceps. Muscle quality (MQ) was ascertained by the ratio of strength to muscle mass. Functional capacity was assessed by the six-minute walk test. Results: Patients with FAPTx had significantly lower functional capacity, weight, body mass index, total fat mass, TBSMM, SMI, lean mass, muscle strength, MQ, and bone mineral density. Conclusion: Patients with FAPTx appear to be at particularly high risk of functional disability, suggesting an important role for an early and appropriately designed rehabilitation program.

Risk factors for non compliance using occlusive therapy: a case study

Purpose: compliance with treatment is a common problem when treating amblyopic patients. Visual acuity of amblyopic eye does not improve without effective occlusive therapy. The aim of this study is to identify potential risk factors of non-compliance with treatment when it is implemented by family in amblyopic children. Setting: a quantitative transversal study was performed in a public hospital and in a private clinic in Lisbon.

Modelos de risk based inspection e risk based inspection and maintenance aplicados a sistemas de produção de energias renováveis

A utilização de recursos energéticos renováveis apresenta-se como um caminho vital para a humanidade alcançar um desenvolvimento sustentável. Nesta campanha, a energia eólica surge como um dos principais vectores de orientação tendo evoluído de forma quase exponencial nos últimos anos. No entanto, apesar da sua relativa maturidade, esta tecnologia enfrenta ainda alguns problemas e desafios. Não obstante a experiência empírica da indústria eólica, adquirida nos últimos trinta anos e dos esforços para melhorar a fiabilidade operacional das turbinas, as taxas de falha ainda se apresentam elevadas. Face às correntes práticas de Manutenção das turbinas e parques eólicos e às características de falha, (por vezes catastróficas), existe a necessidade de optimizar as estratégias de manutenção das turbinas eólicas e reduzir os custos durante o ciclo de vida, de modo a maximizar o retorno do investimento. Descreve-se neste trabalho o estado do conhecimento actual face ao objectivo pretendido, a recolha de dados reais da operação e Manutenção, a aplicabilidade dos modelos escolhidos para obtenção da probabilidade de falha, e as consequências e avaliação do risco. Assim, desenvolveu-se uma ferramenta de apoio à decisão, baseada em Modelos de RBI (Risk Based Inspection) e RBIM (Risk Based Inspection and Maintenance) aplicados a turbinas eólicas.

Risk Aversion in a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Approach to Support Decision-Making for a Hydro Power Producer

In this paper, a mixed-integer nonlinear approach is proposed to support decision-making for a hydro power producer, considering a head-dependent hydro chain. The aim is to maximize the profit of the hydro power producer from selling energy into the electric market. As a new contribution to earlier studies, a risk aversion criterion is taken into account, as well as head-dependency. The volatility of the expected profit is limited through the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). The proposed approach has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems.

Renormalization-group constraints on Yukawa alignment in multi-Higgs-doublet models

We write down the renormalization-group equations for the Yukawa-coupling matrices in a general multi-Higgs-doublet model. We then assume that the matrices of the Yukawa couplings of the various Higgs doublets to right-handed fermions of fixed quantum numbers are all proportional to each other. We demonstrate that, in the case of the two-Higgs-doublet model, this proportionality is preserved by the renormalization-group running only in the cases of the standard type-I, II, X, and Y models. We furthermore show that a similar result holds even when there are more than two Higgs doublets: the Yukawa-coupling matrices to fermions of a given electric charge remain proportional under the renormalization-group running if and only if there is a basis for the Higgs doublets in which all the fermions of a given electric charge couple to only one Higgs doublet.

Scheduling of head-dependent cascaded reservoirs considering discharge ramping constraints and start/stop of units

This paper is on the problem of short-term hydro scheduling (STHS), particularly concerning head-dependent reservoirs under competitive environment. We propose a novel method, based on mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP), for optimising power generation efficiency. This method considers hydroelectric power generation as a nonlinear function of water discharge and of the head. The main contribution of this paper is that discharge ramping constraints and start/stop of units are also considered, in order to obtain more realistic and feasible results. The proposed method has been applied successfully to solve two case studies based on Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, providing a higher profit at an acceptable computation time in comparison with classical optimisation methods based on mixed-integer linear programming (MILP).

Risk assessment in occupational exposure to formaldehyde: differences between anatomy and pathology laboratories and formaldehyde-resins production

Formaldehyde (CH2O), the most simple and reactive of all aldehydes, is colorless, and readily polymerizing gas at normal temperature. The most extensive use is in production of resins and has an important application as a disinfectant and preservative, reason why relevant workplace exposure may also occur in pathology and anatomy laboratories and in mortuaries. A study was carried out in Portugal, in a formaldehyde production resins factory and in 10 pathology and anatomy laboratories. It was applied a risk assessment methodology based on Queensland University proposal that permitted to perform risk assessment for each activity developed in a work station. This methodology was applied in 83 different activities developed in the laboratories and in 18 activities of the factory. Also, Micronucleus Test was performed in lymphocytes from 30 factory workers and 50 laboratories workers.

Risk assessment of exposure to multiple mycotoxins in food

Moulds may produce a diversity of toxins such as aflatoxins, ochratoxins, trichothecenes, zearalenone, fumonisins and others. Although toxicological, environmental and epidemiological studies have addressed the problem of these toxins one by one, more than one mycotoxin are found usually in the same contaminated food. Risk assessment for humans potentially exposed to multimycotoxins suffers very much from the lack of adequate food consumption data. Furthermore, for a given mycotoxin, synergism and antagonism with other mycotoxins, found in the same food commodities, are not taken into account. Aflatoxin B1 and ochratoxin A belong to the most frequently occurring mycotoxins. This has repeatedly been demonstrated, however, normally, the risk resulting from their simultaneous occurrence is not considered. A descriptive study was developed to monitor air fungal contamination in one hospital food unit.

Constraints on leptogenesis from a symmetry viewpoint

It is shown that type I seesaw models based on the standard model Lagrangian extended with three heavy Majorana right-handed fields do not have leptogenesis in leading order, if the symmetries of mass matrices are also the residual symmetry of the Lagrangian. In particular, flavor models that lead to a mass-independent leptonic mixing have a vanishing leptogenesis CP asymmetry. Based on symmetry arguments, we prove that in these models the Dirac-neutrino Yukawa coupling combinations relevant for leptogenesis are diagonal in the physical basis where the charged leptons and heavy Majorana neutrinos are diagonal.

The risk-return trade-off in Europe: A temporal and cross-sectional analysis

This paper analyzes the risk-return trade-off in European equities considering both temporal and cross-sectional dimensions. In our analysis, we introduce not only the market portfolio but also 15 industry portfolios comprising the entire market. Several bivariate GARCH models are estimated to obtain the covariance matrix between excess market returns and the industrial portfolios and the existence of a risk-return trade-off is analyzed through a cross-sectional approach using the information in all portfolios. It is obtained evidence for a positive and significant risk-return trade-off in the European market. This conclusion is robust for different GARCH specifications and is even more evident after controlling for the main financial crisis during the sample period.

Optimal insurance with counterparty default risk

We study the design of optimal insurance contracts when the insurer can default on its obligations. In our model default arises endogenously from the interaction of the insurance premium, the indemnity schedule and the insurer’s assets. This allows us to understand the joint effect of insolvency risk and background risk on efficient contracts. The results may shed light on the aggregate risk retention sched- ules observed in catastrophe reinsurance markets, and can assist in the design of (re)insurance programs and guarantee funds.

What drives corporate default risk premia? Evidence from the CDS market

This paper studies the evolution of the default risk premia for European firms during the years surrounding the recent credit crisis. We employ the information embedded in Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and Moody’s KMV EDF default probabilities to analyze the common factors driving this risk premia. The risk premium is characterized in several directions: Firstly, we perform a panel data analysis to capture the relationship between CDS spreads and actual default probabilities. Secondly, we employ the intensity framework of Jarrow et al. (2005) in order to measure the theoretical effect of risk premium on expected bond returns. Thirdly, we carry out a dynamic panel data to identify the macroeconomic sources of risk premium. Finally, a vector autoregressive model analyzes which proportion of the co-movement is attributable to financial or macro variables. Our estimations report coefficients for risk premium substantially higher than previously referred for US firms and a time varying behavior. A dominant factor explains around 60% of the common movements in risk premia. Additionally, empirical evidence suggests a public-to-private risk transfer between the sovereign CDS spreads and corporate risk premia.

Systematic and liquidity risk in sub-prime mortgage-backed assets

The mis-evaluation of risk in securitized financial products is central to understanding the global financial crisis. This paper characterizes the evolution of risk factors affecting collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) based on subprime mortgages. A key feature of subprime mortgage-backed indices is that they are distinct in their vintage of issuance. Using a latent factor framework that incorporates this vintage effect, we show the increasing importance of common factors on more senior tranches during the crisis. An innovation of the paper is that we use the unbalanced panel structure of the data to identify the vintage, credit, common and idiosyncratic effects from a state-space specification.