6 resultados para epidemic outbreaks

em Repositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa - Portugal


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The interplay of seasonality, the system's nonlinearities and intrinsic stochasticity, is studied for a seasonally forced susceptible-exposed-infective-recovered stochastic model. The model is explored in the parameter region that corresponds to childhood infectious diseases such as measles. The power spectrum of the stochastic fluctuations around the attractors of the deterministic system that describes the model in the thermodynamic limit is computed analytically and validated by stochastic simulations for large system sizes. Size effects are studied through additional simulations. Other effects such as switching between coexisting attractors induced by stochasticity often mentioned in the literature as playing an important role in the dynamics of childhood infectious diseases are also investigated. The main conclusion is that stochastic amplification, rather than these effects, is the key ingredient to understand the observed incidence patterns.

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Aflatoxins were first isolated about 40 years ago afier outbreaks of disease and death in turkeys and cancer in rainbow trout fed with rations formulated from peanut and cottonseed meals. These toxins are secondary metabolites produced under certain conditions of temperature, p14 and humidity predominantiy by Aspergilius flavus and Aspergilius parasiticus fungi species. Among 18 different types of aflatoxins identified, major members are aflatoxin B1, B2, G1 and G2. Aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) is normaily predominant in cultures as well as in food products. AFB1 was shown to be genotoxic and a potent hepatocarcinogen. This mycotoxin is metabolized by the mixed function oxidase system to a number of hydroxylated metabolites including the 8,9-epoxide. The latter is considered to be the ultimate carcinogen that reacts with cellular deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) and proteins to form covalent adducts.

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Beaches worldwide provide recreational opportunities to hundreds of millions of people and serve as important components of coastal economies. Beach water is often monitored for microbiological quality to detect the presence of indicators of human sewage contamination so as to prevent public health outbreaks associated with water contact. However, growing evidence suggests that beach sand can harbor microbes harmful to human health, often in concentrations greater than the beach water. Currently, there are no standards for monitoring, sampling, analyzing, or managing beach sand quality. In addition to indicator microbes, growing evidence has identified pathogenic bacteria, viruses, and fungi in a variety of beach sands worldwide. The public health threat associated with these populations through direct and indirect contact is unknown because so little research has been conducted relating to health outcomes associated with sand quality. In this manuscript, we present the consensus findings of a workshop of experts convened in Lisbon, Portugal to discuss the current state of knowledge on beach sand microbiological quality and to develop suggestions for standardizing the evaluation of sand at coastal beaches. The expert group at the "Microareias 2012" workshop recommends that 1) beach sand should be screened for a variety of pathogens harmful to human health, and sand monitoring should then be initiated alongside regular water monitoring; 2) sampling and analysis protocols should be standardized to allow proper comparisons among beach locations; and 3) further studies are needed to estimate human health risk with exposure to contaminated beach sand. Much of the manuscript is focused on research specific to Portugal, but similar results have been found elsewhere, and the findings have worldwide implications.

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Trabalho de Projeto para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil na Área de Especialização em Edificações

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Relatório da Prática Profissional Supervisionada Mestrado em Educação Pré-escolar

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Mestrado em Gestão e Avaliação de Tecnologias em Saúde