Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

Design and performance of a novel low-density parity-check code for distributed video coding

Low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes are nowadays one of the hottest topics in coding theory, notably due to their advantages in terms of bit error rate performance and low complexity. In order to exploit the potential of the Wyner-Ziv coding paradigm, practical distributed video coding (DVC) schemes should use powerful error correcting codes with near-capacity performance. In this paper, new ways to design LDPC codes for the DVC paradigm are proposed and studied. The new LDPC solutions rely on merging parity-check nodes, which corresponds to reduce the number of rows in the parity-check matrix. This allows to change gracefully the compression ratio of the source (DCT coefficient bitplane) according to the correlation between the original and the side information. The proposed LDPC codes reach a good performance for a wide range of source correlations and achieve a better RD performance when compared to the popular turbo codes.

Perceptually driven video error protection using a distributed source coding approach

In video communication systems, the video signals are typically compressed and sent to the decoder through an error-prone transmission channel that may corrupt the compressed signal, causing the degradation of the final decoded video quality. In this context, it is possible to enhance the error resilience of typical predictive video coding schemes using as inspiration principles and tools from an alternative video coding approach, the so-called Distributed Video Coding (DVC), based on the Distributed Source Coding (DSC) theory. Further improvements in the decoded video quality after error-prone transmission may also be obtained by considering the perceptual relevance of the video content, as distortions occurring in different regions of a picture have a different impact on the user's final experience. In this context, this paper proposes a Perceptually Driven Error Protection (PDEP) video coding solution that enhances the error resilience of a state-of-the-art H.264/AVC predictive video codec using DSC principles and perceptual considerations. To increase the H.264/AVC error resilience performance, the main technical novelties brought by the proposed video coding solution are: (i) design of an improved compressed domain perceptual classification mechanism; (ii) design of an improved transcoding tool for the DSC-based protection mechanism; and (iii) integration of a perceptual classification mechanism in an H.264/AVC compliant codec with a DSC-based error protection mechanism. The performance results obtained show that the proposed PDEP video codec provides a better performing alternative to traditional error protection video coding schemes, notably Forward Error Correction (FEC)-based schemes. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A flexible side information generation framework for distributed video coding

One of the most efficient approaches to generate the side information (SI) in distributed video codecs is through motion compensated frame interpolation where the current frame is estimated based on past and future reference frames. However, this approach leads to significant spatial and temporal variations in the correlation noise between the source at the encoder and the SI at the decoder. In such scenario, it would be useful to design an architecture where the SI can be more robustly generated at the block level, avoiding the creation of SI frame regions with lower correlation, largely responsible for some coding efficiency losses. In this paper, a flexible framework to generate SI at the block level in two modes is presented: while the first mode corresponds to a motion compensated interpolation (MCI) technique, the second mode corresponds to a motion compensated quality enhancement (MCQE) technique where a low quality Intra block sent by the encoder is used to generate the SI by doing motion estimation with the help of the reference frames. The novel MCQE mode can be overall advantageous from the rate-distortion point of view, even if some rate has to be invested in the low quality Intra coding blocks, for blocks where the MCI produces SI with lower correlation. The overall solution is evaluated in terms of RD performance with improvements up to 2 dB, especially for high motion video sequences and long Group of Pictures (GOP) sizes.

Low Complexity Intra Mode Selection for Efficient Distributed Video Coding

Motion compensated frame interpolation (MCFI) is one of the most efficient solutions to generate side information (SI) in the context of distributed video coding. However, it creates SI with rather significant motion compensated errors for some frame regions while rather small for some other regions depending on the video content. In this paper, a low complexity Infra mode selection algorithm is proposed to select the most 'critical' blocks in the WZ frame and help the decoder with some reliable data for those blocks. For each block, the novel coding mode selection algorithm estimates the encoding rate for the Intra based and WZ coding modes and determines the best coding mode while maintaining a low encoder complexity. The proposed solution is evaluated in terms of rate-distortion performance with improvements up to 1.2 dB regarding a WZ coding mode only solution.

Augmented LDPC Graph for Distributed Video Coding with Multiple Side Information

The advances made in channel-capacity codes, such as turbo codes and low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes, have played a major role in the emerging distributed source coding paradigm. LDPC codes can be easily adapted to new source coding strategies due to their natural representation as bipartite graphs and the use of quasi-optimal decoding algorithms, such as belief propagation. This paper tackles a relevant scenario in distributedvideo coding: lossy source coding when multiple side information (SI) hypotheses are available at the decoder, each one correlated with the source according to different correlation noise channels. Thus, it is proposed to exploit multiple SI hypotheses through an efficient joint decoding technique withmultiple LDPC syndrome decoders that exchange information to obtain coding efficiency improvements. At the decoder side, the multiple SI hypotheses are created with motion compensated frame interpolation and fused together in a novel iterative LDPC based Slepian-Wolf decoding algorithm. With the creation of multiple SI hypotheses and the proposed decoding algorithm, bitrate savings up to 8.0% are obtained for similar decoded quality.

Distributed Model Predictive Control for Housing with Hourly Auction of Available Energy

This paper presents a distributed model predictive control (DMPC) for indoor thermal comfort that simultaneously optimizes the consumption of a limited shared energy resource. The control objective of each subsystem is to minimize the heating/cooling energy cost while maintaining the indoor temperature and used power inside bounds. In a distributed coordinated environment, the control uses multiple dynamically decoupled agents (one for each subsystem/house) aiming to achieve satisfaction of coupling constraints. According to the hourly power demand profile, each house assigns a priority level that indicates how much is willing to bid in auction for consume the limited clean resource. This procedure allows the bidding value vary hourly and consequently, the agents order to access to the clean energy also varies. Despite of power constraints, all houses have also thermal comfort constraints that must be fulfilled. The system is simulated with several houses in a distributed environment.

A denoising approach for iterative side information creation in distributed video coding

In distributed video coding, motion estimation is typically performed at the decoder to generate the side information, increasing the decoder complexity while providing low complexity encoding in comparison with predictive video coding. Motion estimation can be performed once to create the side information or several times to refine the side information quality along the decoding process. In this paper, motion estimation is performed at the decoder side to generate multiple side information hypotheses which are adaptively and dynamically combined, whenever additional decoded information is available. The proposed iterative side information creation algorithm is inspired in video denoising filters and requires some statistics of the virtual channel between each side information hypothesis and the original data. With the proposed denoising algorithm for side information creation, a RD performance gain up to 1.2 dB is obtained for the same bitrate.

Distributed process execution in collaborative networks

Processes are a central entity in enterprise collaboration. Collaborative processes need to be executed and coordinated in a distributed Computational platform where computers are connected through heterogeneous networks and systems. Life cycle management of such collaborative processes requires a framework able to handle their diversity based on different computational and communication requirements. This paper proposes a rational for such framework, points out key requirements and proposes it strategy for a supporting technological infrastructure. Beyond the portability of collaborative process definitions among different technological bindings, a framework to handle different life cycle phases of those definitions is presented and discussed. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rentabilidade e risco na comercialização agregada de energia elétrica

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica na Área de Especialização de Energia

Between theory and practice – teaching maths to elementary school students in Poland

The development of children's school achievements in mathematics is one of the most important aims of education in Poland. The results of research concerning monitoring of school achievements in maths is not optimistic. We can observe low levels of children’s understanding of the merits of maths, self-developed strategies in solving problems and practical usage of maths skills. This article frames the discussion of this problem in its psychological and didactic context and analyses the causes as they relate to school practice in teaching maths

Microscopic Theory of Anchoring Transitions at the Surfaces of Pure Liquid-Crystals and their Mixtures .1. The Fowler Approximation

We have generalized earlier work on anchoring of nematic liquid crystals by Sullivan, and Sluckin and Poniewierski, in order to study transitions which may occur in binary mixtures of nematic liquid crystals as a function of composition. Microscopic expressions have been obtained for the anchoring energy of (i) a liquid crystal in contact with a solid aligning surface; (ii) a liquid crystal in contact with an immiscible isotropic medium; (iii) a liquid crystal mixture in contact with a solid aligning surface. For (iii), possible phase diagrams of anchoring angle versus dopant concentration have been calculated using a simple liquid crystal model. These exhibit some interesting features including re-entrant conical anchoring, for what are believed to be realistic values of the molecular parameters. A way of relaxing the most drastic approximation implicit in the above approach is also briefly discussed.

Simulation and theory of hybrid aligned liquid crystal films

We present a study of the effects of nanoconfinement on a system of hard Gaussian overlap particles interacting with planar substrates through the hard-needle-wall potential, extending earlier work by two of us [D. J. Cleaver and P. I. C. Teixeira, Chem. Phys. Lett. 338, 1 (2001)]. Here, we consider the case of hybrid films, where one of the substrates induces strongly homeotropic anchoring, while the other favors either weakly homeotropic or planar anchoring. These systems are investigated using both Monte Carlo simulation and density-functional theory, the latter implemented at the level of Onsager's second-virial approximation with Parsons-Lee rescaling. The orientational structure is found to change either continuously or discontinuously depending on substrate separation, in agreement with earlier predictions by others. The theory is seen to perform well in spite of its simplicity, predicting the positional and orientational structure seen in simulations even for small particle elongations.

Distributed MPC for Thermal Comfort and Load Allocation with Energy Auction

This paper presents a distributed predictive control methodology for indoor thermal comfort that optimizes the consumption of a limited shared energy resource using an integrated demand-side management approach that involves a power price auction and an appliance loads allocation scheme. The control objective for each subsystem (house or building) aims to minimize the energy cost while maintaining the indoor temperature inside comfort limits. In a distributed coordinated multi-agent ecosystem, each house or building control agent achieves its objectives while sharing, among them, the available energy through the introduction of particular coupling constraints in their underlying optimization problem. Coordination is maintained by a daily green energy auction bring in a demand-side management approach. Also the implemented distributed MPC algorithm is described and validated with simulation studies.