The portuguese insurance industry: basis for strategic process decision

Nowadays, the Portuguese insurance industry operates in a market with a much more aggressive structure than a few decades ago. Markets and the economy have become globalised since the last decade of the 20th century. Market forces have gradually shifted – power is now mainly on the demand side. In order to meet the new requirements, the insurance industry must develop a strong strategic ability to respond to constant changes of the new international economic order.One of the basic aspects of this strategic development will focus on the ability to predict the future. We introduce the subject by briefly describing the sector, its organisational structure in the Portuguese market, and challenges arising from the development of the European Union. We then analyse the economic and financial structure of the sector. From this point of view, we aim at the possibility of designing models that could explain the demand for insurance, claims and technical reserves evolution. Such models, (even if based on the past), would resolve, at least partly, one of the greatest difficulties experienced by insurance companies when estimating the budget. Thus, we examine the existence of variables that explain the previous points, which are capable of forming a basis for designing models that are simple but efficient, and can be used for strategic planning.

Risk Aversion in a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Approach to Support Decision-Making for a Hydro Power Producer

In this paper, a mixed-integer nonlinear approach is proposed to support decision-making for a hydro power producer, considering a head-dependent hydro chain. The aim is to maximize the profit of the hydro power producer from selling energy into the electric market. As a new contribution to earlier studies, a risk aversion criterion is taken into account, as well as head-dependency. The volatility of the expected profit is limited through the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). The proposed approach has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems.

Increasing availability through maintainability growth using partial Multi Criteria Decision Making (pMCDM)

In the last decades considerations about equipments' availability became an important issue, as well as its dependence on components characteristics such as reliability and maintainability. This is particularly of outstanding importance if one is dealing with high risk industrial equipments, where these factors play an important and fundamental role in risk management when safety or huge economic values are in discussion. As availability is a function of reliability, maintainability, and maintenance support activities, the main goal is to improve one or more of these factors. This paper intends to show how maintainability can influence availability and present a methodology to select the most important attributes for maintainability using a partial Multi Criteria Decision Making (pMCDM). Improvements in maintainability can be analyzed assuming it as a probability related with a restore probability density function [g(t)].

A hybrid approach to multi-agent decision-making

In the aftermath of a large-scale disaster, agents' decisions derive from self-interested (e.g. survival), common-good (e.g. victims' rescue) and teamwork (e.g. fire extinction) motivations. However, current decision-theoretic models are either purely individual or purely collective and find it difficult to deal with motivational attitudes; on the other hand, mental-state based models find it difficult to deal with uncertainty. We propose a hybrid, CvI-JI, approach that combines: i) collective 'versus' individual (CvI) decisions, founded on the Markov decision process (MDP) quantitative evaluation of joint-actions, and ii)joint-intentions (JI) formulation of teamwork, founded on the belief-desire-intention (BDI) architecture of general mental-state based reasoning. The CvI-JI evaluation explores the performance's improvement

Bias dependent photocurrent collection in p-i-n a-Si : EVSiC : H heterojunction

A series of large area single layers and heterojunction cells in the assembly glass/ZnO:Al/p (SixC1-x:H)/i (Si:H)/n (SixC1-x:H)/Al (0

Bias-dependent photocurrent collection in p-i-n a-Si : H/SiC : H heterojunction

A series of large area single layers and glass/ZnO:AVp(SixC1-x:H)/i(Si:H)/n(SixC1-x:H)/AI (0 < x < 1) heterojunction cells were produced by plasma-enhanced chemical vapour deposition (PE-CVD) at low temperature. Junction properties, carrier transport and photogeneration are investigated from dark and illuminated current-voltage (J-V) and capacitance-voltage (C-V) characteristics. For the heterojunction cells atypical J-V characteristics under different illumination conditions are observed leading to poor fill factors. High series resistances around 106 Q are also measured. These experimental results were used as a basis for the numerical simulation of the energy band diagram, and the electrical field distribution of the structures. Further comparison with the sensor performance gave satisfactory agreement. Results show that the conduction band offset is the most limiting parameter for the optimal collection of the photogenerated carriers. As the optical gap increases and the conductivity of the doped layers decreases, the transport mechanism changes from a drift to a diffusion-limited process.

Colour filtering in a-SiC : H based p-i-n-p-i-n cells: A trade-off between bias polarity and absorption regions

A large area colour imager optically addressed is presented. The colour imager consists of a thin wide band gap p-i-n a-SiC:H filtering element deposited on the top of a thick large area a-SiC:H(-p)/a-Si:H(-i)/a-SiC:H(-n) image sensor, which reveals itself an intrinsic colour filter. In order to tune the external applied voltage for full colour discrimination the photocurrent generated by a modulated red light is measured under different optical and electrical bias. Results reveal that the integrated device behaves itself as an imager and a filter giving information not only on the position where the optical image is absorbed but also on it wavelength and intensity. The amplitude and sign of the image signals are electrically tuneable. In a wide range of incident fluxes and under reverse bias, the red and blue image signals are opposite in sign and the green signal is suppressed allowing blue and red colour recognition. The green information is obtained under forward bias, where the blue signal goes down to zero and the red and green remain constant. Combining the information obtained at this two applied voltages a RGB colour image picture can be acquired without the need of the usual colour filters or pixel architecture. A numerical simulation supports the colour filter analysis.

: SiC Multilayer Photonic Structures with Self Optical Bias Amplification

Characteristics of tunable wavelength pi'n/pin filters based on a-SiC:H multilayered stacked cells are studied both experimental and theoretically. Results show that the device combines the demultiplexing operation with the simultaneous photodetection and self amplification of the signal. An algorithm to decode the multiplex signal is established. A capacitive active band-pass filter model is presented and supported by an electrical simulation of the state variable filter circuit. Experimental and simulated results show that the device acts as a state variable filter. It combines the properties of active high-pass and low-pass filter sections into a capacitive active band-pass filter using a changing photo capacitance to control the power delivered to the load.

Reconfigurable SiC Embedded Photonic Structures with Self Optical Bias Control

Multilayered heterostructures based on embedded a-Si:H and a-SiC:H p-i-n filters are analyzed from differential voltage design perspective using short- and long-pass filters. The transfer functions characteristics are presented. A numerical simulation is presented to explain the filtering properties of the photonic devices. Several monochromatic pulsed lights, separately (input channels) or in a polychromatic mixture (multiplexed signal) at different bit rates, illuminated the device. Steady-state optical bias is superimposed from the front and the back side. Results show that depending on the wavelength of the external background and impinging side, the device acts either as a short- or a long-pass band filter or as a band-stop filter. Particular attention is given to the amplification coefficient weights, which allow to take into account the wavelength background effects when a band or frequency needs to be filtered or the gate switch, in which optical active filter gates are used to select and filter input signals to specific output ports in wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) communication systems. This nonlinearity provides the possibility for selective removal or addition of wavelengths. A truth table of an encoder that performs 8-to-1 MUX function exemplifies the optoelectronic conversion.

Choosing best components for an amputee: a methodology for the best decision-making

The harmony between the stump and the prosthesis is critical to allow it to fulfill its function enabling an efficient gait. A well fitted socket, with an efficient and comfortable suspension, allows the amputee to continue their daily living activities, maintaining the stump functional, making this correlation between socket and suspension very important in the functionality of the prosthesis, mobility and overall satisfaction with the device. Of our knowledge, the quantitative correlation between all of these factors as not yet been assessed. Aim of study: Verify and confirm the process of decision-making for four different trans-tibial prostheses with suspension systems: Hypobaric(A), PIN(B), Classic Suction(C) and Vacuum Active –VASS(D) according data provided by gait efficiency (mlO2/kg/m) imagiology (pistonning) and amputee perception.

Coding mode decision algorithm for binary descriptor coding

In visual sensor networks, local feature descriptors can be computed at the sensing nodes, which work collaboratively on the data obtained to make an efficient visual analysis. In fact, with a minimal amount of computational effort, the detection and extraction of local features, such as binary descriptors, can provide a reliable and compact image representation. In this paper, it is proposed to extract and code binary descriptors to meet the energy and bandwidth constraints at each sensing node. The major contribution is a binary descriptor coding technique that exploits the correlation using two different coding modes: Intra, which exploits the correlation between the elements that compose a descriptor; and Inter, which exploits the correlation between descriptors of the same image. The experimental results show bitrate savings up to 35% without any impact in the performance efficiency of the image retrieval task. © 2014 EURASIP.

Logic functions based on optical bias controlled SIC Tandem devices

The purpose of this paper is the design of an optoelectronic circuit based on a-SiC technology, able to act simultaneously as a 4-bit binary encoder or a binary decoder in a 4-to-16 line configurations and show multiplexer-based logical functions. The device consists of a p-i'(a-SiC:H)-n/p-i(a-Si:H)-n multilayered structure produced by PECVD. To analyze it under information-modulated wave (color channels) and uniform irradiation (background) four monochromatic pulsed lights (input channels): red, green, blue and violet shine on the device. Steady state optical bias was superimposed separately from the front and the back sides, and the generated photocurrent was measured. Results show that the devices, under appropriate optical bias, act as reconfigurable active filters that allow optical switching and optoelectronic logic functions development providing the possibility for selective removal of useless wavelengths. The logic functions needed to construct any other complex logic functions are the NOT, and both or either an AND or an OR. Any other complex logic function that might be found can also be used as building blocks to achieve the functions needed for the retrieval of channels within the WDM communication link. (C) 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim

Tunnig optical A-Sic/A-Si active filters by UV bias light in the visible and infrared spectral ranges

Visible range to telecom band spectral translation is accomplished using an amorphous SiC pi'n/pin wavelength selector under appropriate front and back optical light bias. Results show that background intensity works as selectors in the infrared region, shifting the sensor sensitivity. Low intensities select the near-infrared range while high intensities select the visible part according to its wavelength. Here, the optical gain is very high in the infrared/red range, decreases in the green range, stays close to one in the blue region and strongly decreases in the near-UV range. The transfer characteristics effects due to changes in steady state light intensity and wavelength backgrounds are presented. The relationship between the optical inputs and the output signal is established. A capacitive optoelectronic model is presented and tested using the experimental results. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

The role of teaching decision analysis for sustainability in engeneering schools

This paper addresses the role that decision analysis plays in helping engineers to gain a greater understanding of the problems they face. The need of structured decision analysis is highlighted as well as the use of multiple criteria decision analysis to tackle sustainability issues with emphasis in the use of MACBETH approach. Some insights from a Portuguese Summer Course on engineering for sustainable development are presented namely the students 'and teacher perceptions about the module of decision analysis for sustainability.