Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

A model to forecast financial failure, in non financial galician SMES

We are concerned with providing more empirical evidence on forecast failure, developing forecast models, and examining the impact of events such as audit reports. A joint consideration of classic financial ratios and relevant external indicators leads us to build a basic prediction model focused in non-financial Galician SMEs. Explanatory variables are relevant financial indicators from the viewpoint of the financial logic and financial failure theory. The paper explores three mathematical models: discriminant analysis, Logit, and linear multivariate regression. We conclude that, even though they both offer high explanatory and predictive abilities, Logit and MDA models should be used and interpreted jointly.

Optoelectronic Logic Functions Based on Reconfigurable SiC Multilayer Devices

WDM multilayered SiC/Si devices based on a-Si:H and a-SiC:H filter design are approached from a reconfigurable point of view. Results show that the devices, under appropriated optical bias, act as reconfigurable active filters that allow optical switching and optoelectronic logic functions development. Under front violet irradiation the magnitude of the red and green channels are amplified and the blue and violet reduced. Violet back irradiation cuts the red channel, slightly influences the magnitude of the green and blue ones and strongly amplifies de violet channel. This nonlinearity provides the possibility for selective removal of useless wavelengths. Particular attention is given to the amplification coefficient weights, which allow taking into account the wavelength background effects when a band needs to be filtered from a wider range of mixed signals, or when optical active filter gates are used to select and filter input signals to specific output ports in WDM communication systems. A truth table of an encoder that performs 8-to-1 multiplexer (MUX) function is presented.

Os (in)sofismáveis caminhos do storytelling : Woody Allen e o documentário ficcionado

ABSTRACT: Between pure documentary and pure fiction there are, more and more, a reasonable number of cinematic alternatives that convey a dimension of non-reality. Between the pointedly factual discourse and the irrational belief in an entirely narrative world, there intervenes an informed conviction in a truthful but nonexistent universe, in which the formal enunciation sells an image of objectivity. In a path that leads us from the forms and contents of reflexive and performative documentaries, according to Bill Nichols, and ends up in fake documentary itself, we will have the opportunity to stress the filmic construction and its inherent narrative purpose, be it a fictional story or the creator himself as character (others would say subject) of the cinematic construct. In a boomerang kind of logic, the more the objects direct us to a referent, the more they restore us a creative/authorial reference and, along with it, the narrative idea that instills it. In Woody Allen’s case, this storytelling manifests itself in the fake documentary genre, which works as if it is the reality, only to better manifest the sole reality that interests the director: that of the metacinema, or the cinema as self-referencial reality. The practical examples will be derived from the following films: Take the Money and Run (1969) e Husbands and Wives (1992).

Between theory and practice – teaching maths to elementary school students in Poland

The development of children's school achievements in mathematics is one of the most important aims of education in Poland. The results of research concerning monitoring of school achievements in maths is not optimistic. We can observe low levels of children’s understanding of the merits of maths, self-developed strategies in solving problems and practical usage of maths skills. This article frames the discussion of this problem in its psychological and didactic context and analyses the causes as they relate to school practice in teaching maths

Microscopic Theory of Anchoring Transitions at the Surfaces of Pure Liquid-Crystals and their Mixtures .1. The Fowler Approximation

We have generalized earlier work on anchoring of nematic liquid crystals by Sullivan, and Sluckin and Poniewierski, in order to study transitions which may occur in binary mixtures of nematic liquid crystals as a function of composition. Microscopic expressions have been obtained for the anchoring energy of (i) a liquid crystal in contact with a solid aligning surface; (ii) a liquid crystal in contact with an immiscible isotropic medium; (iii) a liquid crystal mixture in contact with a solid aligning surface. For (iii), possible phase diagrams of anchoring angle versus dopant concentration have been calculated using a simple liquid crystal model. These exhibit some interesting features including re-entrant conical anchoring, for what are believed to be realistic values of the molecular parameters. A way of relaxing the most drastic approximation implicit in the above approach is also briefly discussed.

Simulation and theory of hybrid aligned liquid crystal films

We present a study of the effects of nanoconfinement on a system of hard Gaussian overlap particles interacting with planar substrates through the hard-needle-wall potential, extending earlier work by two of us [D. J. Cleaver and P. I. C. Teixeira, Chem. Phys. Lett. 338, 1 (2001)]. Here, we consider the case of hybrid films, where one of the substrates induces strongly homeotropic anchoring, while the other favors either weakly homeotropic or planar anchoring. These systems are investigated using both Monte Carlo simulation and density-functional theory, the latter implemented at the level of Onsager's second-virial approximation with Parsons-Lee rescaling. The orientational structure is found to change either continuously or discontinuously depending on substrate separation, in agreement with earlier predictions by others. The theory is seen to perform well in spite of its simplicity, predicting the positional and orientational structure seen in simulations even for small particle elongations.

Liderança em agrupamentos de territórios de intervenção prioritária: imperativos, contingências e lógicas de acção

Centrado na acção de liderança, este estudo propôs-se identificar as contingências e imperativos inerentes ao processo de implementação do programa TEIP num agrupamento de escolas. Especificamente, pretendeu-se captar a heterogeneidade das lógicas de mudança e identificar modos de apropriação subjectiva da liderança pedagógica e organizacional. Os resultados reforçam a ideia de que implementar um programa novo é construção de complexidade holística, implicando a conjunção integrada de múltiplas estratégias de liderança. Discutem-se os resultados à luz das teorizações iniciais, com relevo para as lógicas de prestação de contas e alguns sinais de „balcanização‟ organizacional.

Logic functions based on optical bias controlled SIC Tandem devices

The purpose of this paper is the design of an optoelectronic circuit based on a-SiC technology, able to act simultaneously as a 4-bit binary encoder or a binary decoder in a 4-to-16 line configurations and show multiplexer-based logical functions. The device consists of a p-i'(a-SiC:H)-n/p-i(a-Si:H)-n multilayered structure produced by PECVD. To analyze it under information-modulated wave (color channels) and uniform irradiation (background) four monochromatic pulsed lights (input channels): red, green, blue and violet shine on the device. Steady state optical bias was superimposed separately from the front and the back sides, and the generated photocurrent was measured. Results show that the devices, under appropriate optical bias, act as reconfigurable active filters that allow optical switching and optoelectronic logic functions development providing the possibility for selective removal of useless wavelengths. The logic functions needed to construct any other complex logic functions are the NOT, and both or either an AND or an OR. Any other complex logic function that might be found can also be used as building blocks to achieve the functions needed for the retrieval of channels within the WDM communication link. (C) 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim

On lattices from combinatorial game theory modularity and a representation theorem: finite case

We show that a self-generated set of combinatorial games, S. may not be hereditarily closed but, strong self-generation and hereditary closure are equivalent in the universe of short games. In [13], the question "Is there a set which will give a non-distributive but modular lattice?" appears. A useful necessary condition for the existence of a finite non-distributive modular L(S) is proved. We show the existence of S such that L(S) is modular and not distributive, exhibiting the first known example. More, we prove a Representation Theorem with Games that allows the generation of all finite lattices in game context. Finally, a computational tool for drawing lattices of games is presented. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the analysis of compensation correctness

One fundamental idea of service-oriented computing is that applications should be developed by composing already available services. Due to the long running nature of service interactions, a main challenge in service composition is ensuring correctness of transaction recovery. In this paper, we use a process calculus suitable for modelling long running transactions with a recovery mechanism based on compensations. Within this setting, we discuss and formally state correctness criteria for compensable processes compositions, assuming that each process is correct with respect to transaction recovery. Under our theory, we formally interpret self-healing compositions, that can detect and recover from faults, as correct compositions of compensable processes. Moreover, we develop an automated verification approach and we apply it to an illustrative case study.

Theory and phenomenology of two-higgs-doublet models

We discuss theoretical and phenomenological aspects of two-Higgs-doublet extensions of the Standard Model. In general, these extensions have scalar mediated flavour changing neutral currents which are strongly constrained by experiment. Various strategies are discussed to control these flavour changing scalar currents and their phenomenological consequences are analysed. In particular, scenarios with natural flavour conservation are investigated, including the so-called type I and type II models as well as lepton-specific and inert models. Type III models are then discussed, where scalar flavour changing neutral currents are present at tree level, but are suppressed by either a specific ansatz for the Yukawa couplings or by the introduction of family symmetries leading to a natural suppression mechanism. We also consider the phenomenology of charged scalars in these models. Next we turn to the role of symmetries in the scalar sector. We discuss the six symmetry-constrained scalar potentials and their extension into the fermion sector. The vacuum structure of the scalar potential is analysed, including a study of the vacuum stability conditions on the potential and the renormalization-group improvement of these conditions is also presented. The stability of the tree level minimum of the scalar potential in connection with electric charge conservation and its behaviour under CP is analysed. The question of CP violation is addressed in detail, including the cases of explicit CP violation and spontaneous CP violation. We present a detailed study of weak basis invariants which are odd under CP. These invariants allow for the possibility of studying the CP properties of any two-Higgs-doublet model in an arbitrary Higgs basis. A careful study of spontaneous CP violation is presented, including an analysis of the conditions which have to be satisfied in order for a vacuum to violate CP. We present minimal models of CP violation where the vacuum phase is sufficient to generate a complex CKM matrix, which is at present a requirement for any realistic model of spontaneous CP violation.

A cultura, os valores contabilísticos e o julgamento profissional dos preparadores e dos revisores/auditores portugueses

Mestrado em Auditoria

Generalization of Wertheim's theory for the assembly of various types of rings

We generalize Wertheim's first order perturbation theory to account for the effect in the thermodynamics of the self-assembly of rings characterized by two energy scales. The theory is applied to a lattice model of patchy particles and tested against Monte Carlo simulations on a fcc lattice. These particles have 2 patches of type A and 10 patches of type B, which may form bonds AA or AB that decrease the energy by epsilon(AA) and by epsilon(AB) = r epsilon(AA), respectively. The angle theta between the 2 A-patches on each particle is fixed at 601, 90 degrees or 120 degrees. For values of r below 1/2 and above a threshold r(th)(theta) the models exhibit a phase diagram with two critical points. Both theory and simulation predict that rth increases when theta decreases. We show that the mechanism that prevents phase separation for models with decreasing values of theta is related to the formation of loops containing AB bonds. Moreover, we show that by including the free energy of B-rings ( loops containing one AB bond), the theory describes the trends observed in the simulation results, but that for the lowest values of theta, the theoretical description deteriorates due to the increasing number of loops containing more than one AB bond.