A stochastic programming approach for the development of offering strategies for a wind power producer

A stochastic programming approach is proposed in this paper for the development of offering strategies for a wind power producer. The optimization model is characterized by making the analysis of several scenarios and treating simultaneously two kinds of uncertainty: wind power and electricity market prices. The approach developed allows evaluating alternative production and offers strategies to submit to the electricity market with the ultimate goal of maximizing profits. An innovative comparative study is provided, where the imbalances are treated differently. Also, an application to two new realistic case studies is presented. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Optimal offering strategies for wind power producers considering uncertainty and risk

This paper provides a two-stage stochastic programming approach for the development of optimal offering strategies for wind power producers. Uncertainty is related to electricity market prices and wind power production. A hybrid intelligent approach, combining wavelet transform, particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, is used in this paper to generate plausible scenarios. Also, risk aversion is explicitly modeled using the conditional value-at-risk methodology. Results from a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal, are provided and analyzed. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Análise e gestão de risco de actividades em outsourcing : estudo de caso

Mestrado em Auditoria

Supervisory control of a variable speed wind turbine with doubly fed induction generator

This paper is on an onshore variable speed wind turbine with doubly fed induction generator and under supervisory control. The control architecture is equipped with an event-based supervisor for the supervision level and fuzzy proportional integral or discrete adaptive linear quadratic as proposed controllers for the execution level. The supervisory control assesses the operational state of the variable speed wind turbine and sends the state to the execution level. Controllers operation are in the full load region to extract energy at full power from the wind while ensuring safety conditions required to inject the energy into the electric grid. A comparison between the simulations of the proposed controllers with the inclusion of the supervisory control on the variable speed wind turbine benchmark model is presented to assess advantages of these controls. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Optimal brake specific fuel consumption trajectory for stand-alone variable speed Diesel Gen-Set

Energy efficiency plays an important role to the CO2 emissions reduction, combating climate change and improving the competitiveness of the economy. The problem presented here is related to the use of stand-alone diesel gen-sets and its high specific fuel consumptions when operates at low loads. The variable speed gen-set concept is explained as an energy-saving solution to improve this system efficiency. This paper details how an optimum fuel consumption trajectory based on experimentally Diesel engine power map is obtained.

Activation of effector immune cells promotes tumor stochastic extinction: A homotopy analysis approach

In this article we provide homotopy solutions of a cancer nonlinear model describing the dynamics of tumor cells in interaction with healthy and effector immune cells. We apply a semi-analytic technique for solving strongly nonlinear systems – the Step Homotopy Analysis Method (SHAM). This algorithm, based on a modification of the standard homotopy analysis method (HAM), allows to obtain a one-parameter family of explicit series solutions. By using the homotopy solutions, we first investigate the dynamical effect of the activation of the effector immune cells in the deterministic dynamics, showing that an increased activation makes the system to enter into chaotic dynamics via a period-doubling bifurcation scenario. Then, by adding demographic stochasticity into the homotopy solutions, we show, as a difference from the deterministic dynamics, that an increased activation of the immune cells facilitates cancer clearance involving tumor cells extinction and healthy cells persistence. Our results highlight the importance of therapies activating the effector immune cells at early stages of cancer progression.

Enhancing the selection of a model-based clustering with external categorical variables

In cluster analysis, it can be useful to interpret the partition built from the data in the light of external categorical variables which are not directly involved to cluster the data. An approach is proposed in the model-based clustering context to select a number of clusters which both fits the data well and takes advantage of the potential illustrative ability of the external variables. This approach makes use of the integrated joint likelihood of the data and the partitions at hand, namely the model-based partition and the partitions associated to the external variables. It is noteworthy that each mixture model is fitted by the maximum likelihood methodology to the data, excluding the external variables which are used to select a relevant mixture model only. Numerical experiments illustrate the promising behaviour of the derived criterion.

GLODS: Global and Local Optimization using Direct Search

Locating and identifying points as global minimizers is, in general, a hard and time-consuming task. Difficulties increase in the impossibility of using the derivatives of the functions defining the problem. In this work, we propose a new class of methods suited for global derivative-free constrained optimization. Using direct search of directional type, the algorithm alternates between a search step, where potentially good regions are located, and a poll step where the previously located promising regions are explored. This exploitation is made through the launching of several instances of directional direct searches, one in each of the regions of interest. Differently from a simple multistart strategy, direct searches will merge when sufficiently close. The goal is to end with as many direct searches as the number of local minimizers, which would easily allow locating the global extreme value. We describe the algorithmic structure considered, present the corresponding convergence analysis and report numerical results, showing that the proposed method is competitive with currently commonly used global derivative-free optimization solvers.

Optimization of cruciform specimens for biaxial fatigue loading with direct multi search

In order to correctly assess the biaxial fatigue material properties one must experimentally test different load conditions and stress levels. With the rise of new in-plane biaxial fatigue testing machines, using smaller and more efficient electrical motors, instead of the conventional hydraulic machines, it is necessary to reduce the specimen size and to ensure that the specimen geometry is appropriate for the load capacity installed. At the present time there are no standard specimen's geometries and the indications on literature how to design an efficient test specimen are insufficient. The main goal of this paper is to present the methodology on how to obtain an optimal cruciform specimen geometry, with thickness reduction in the gauge area, appropriate for fatigue crack initiation, as a function of the base material sheet thickness used to build the specimen. The geometry is optimized for maximum stress using several parameters, ensuring that in the gauge area the stress distributions on the loading directions are uniform and maximum with two limit phase shift loading conditions (delta = 0 degrees and (delta = 180 degrees). Therefore the fatigue damage will always initiate on the center of the specimen, avoiding failure outside this region. Using the Renard Series of preferred numbers for the base material sheet thickness as a reference, the reaming geometry parameters are optimized using a derivative-free methodology, called direct multi search (DMS) method. The final optimal geometry as a function of the base material sheet thickness is proposed, as a guide line for cruciform specimens design, and as a possible contribution for a future standard on in-plane biaxial fatigue tests

Exploiting the bin-class histograms for feature selection on discrete data

In machine learning and pattern recognition tasks, the use of feature discretization techniques may have several advantages. The discretized features may hold enough information for the learning task at hand, while ignoring minor fluctuations that are irrelevant or harmful for that task. The discretized features have more compact representations that may yield both better accuracy and lower training time, as compared to the use of the original features. However, in many cases, mainly with medium and high-dimensional data, the large number of features usually implies that there is some redundancy among them. Thus, we may further apply feature selection (FS) techniques on the discrete data, keeping the most relevant features, while discarding the irrelevant and redundant ones. In this paper, we propose relevance and redundancy criteria for supervised feature selection techniques on discrete data. These criteria are applied to the bin-class histograms of the discrete features. The experimental results, on public benchmark data, show that the proposed criteria can achieve better accuracy than widely used relevance and redundancy criteria, such as mutual information and the Fisher ratio.