93 resultados para Probabilistic renewable power forecast


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Several didactic modules for an electric machinery laboratory are presented. The modules are dedicated for DC machinery control and get their characteristic curves. The didactic modules have a front panel with power and signal connectors and can be configurable for any DC motor type. The three-phase bridge inverter proposed is one of the most popular topologies and is commercially available in power package modules. The control techniques and power drives were designed to satisfy static and dynamic performance of DC machines. Each power section is internally self-protected against misconnections and short-circuits. Isolated output signals of current and voltage measurements are also provided, adding versatility for use either in didactic or research applications. The implementation of such modules allowed experimental confirmation of the expected performance.

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We are concerned with providing more empirical evidence on forecast failure, developing forecast models, and examining the impact of events such as audit reports. A joint consideration of classic financial ratios and relevant external indicators leads us to build a basic prediction model focused in non-financial Galician SMEs. Explanatory variables are relevant financial indicators from the viewpoint of the financial logic and financial failure theory. The paper explores three mathematical models: discriminant analysis, Logit, and linear multivariate regression. We conclude that, even though they both offer high explanatory and predictive abilities, Logit and MDA models should be used and interpreted jointly.

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Este trabalho final de mestrado baseou-se no acompanhamento da construção do hotel SANA Amoreiras, situado na Avenida Duarte Pacheco nº 12. O empreiteiro geral foi a empresa FDO Construções. Existindo também uma equipa de fiscalização, LMSA, contratada pelo Dono de Obra de forma a efectuar todo o controlo de qualidade. O TFM baseou-se no estágio efectuado para o Dono de obra do hotel onde fui devidamente acompanhada por uma engenheira, orientadora de estágio, que acompanhou de perto o desempenho da minha actividade. Esta função teve como objectivos a gestão de projecto de hotel, interligação entre projectistas e empreiteiro geral, bem prestar o devido acompanhamento de todos trabalhos a realizar. Acompanhei a realização de dois quartos modelo onde o objectivo do Dono de Obra foi testar as diversas soluções ao nível de revestimentos, sanitários, iluminação, mobiliário, decoração e outras soluções de arquitectura, soluções estas a implementar no hotel. Acompanhei também a realização de reuniões de compatibilização e coordenação de todos os projectos de especialidades com o projecto de arquitectura, nomeadamente Avac, Instalações eléctricas, Comunicações, Segurança, Águas, Esgotos, Gás, Incêndio, Cozinhas de forma a ser possível efectuar consultas aos empreiteiros e adjudicar todas estas empreitadas. Foi efectuada uma abordagem à descrição do hotel, suas características, indicação das razões que levaram à sua construção e descrição das várias empreitadas de construção realizadas até então, tal como, demolição, escavação, estrutura, acabamentos e especialidades.

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Nos dias que correm questões ambientais e considerações energéticas obrigam a uma inovação constante na procura de soluções de baixo consumo energético e de impacto ambiental baixo, nomeadamente no que diz respeito aos sistemas de climatização e refrigeração. Têm vindo a ser criadas medidas, tanto a nível internacional como nacional, no sentido de reduzir as emissões nocivas para a atmosfera, consequência do excessivo consumo de combustíveis fósseis, e do aumento da rentabilidade da energia e maior utilização de energias renováveis. O presente estudo de dimensionamento de um sistema de absorção, a brometo de lítio/água, com coletores solares, tem por base o sistema de compressão existente num edifício de serviços no centro de Lisboa. Foi efetuada uma analise simplificada dos seus dados de consumo energético, de maneira a verificar a viabilidade económica da substituição do equipamento existente e instalação de um sistema de coletores solares. Concluiu-se que a substituição do equipamento e a instalação de coletores solar, não é atrativa do ponto de vista económico, nesta solução em particular. Contudo, verifica-se uma considerável redução do impacto ambiental do consumo energético do edifício.

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A DC-DC step-up micro power converter for solar energy harvesting applications is presented. The circuit is based on a switched-capacitorvoltage tripler architecture with MOSFET capacitors, which results in an, area approximately eight times smaller than using MiM capacitors for the 0.131mu m CMOS technology. In order to compensate for the loss of efficiency, due to the larger parasitic capacitances, a charge reutilization scheme is employed. The circuit is self-clocked, using a phase controller designed specifically to work with an amorphous silicon solar cell, in order to obtain themaximum available power from the cell. This will be done by tracking its maximum power point (MPPT) using the fractional open circuit voltage method. Electrical simulations of the circuit, together with an equivalent electrical model of an amorphous silicon solar cell, show that the circuit can deliver apower of 1132 mu W to the load, corresponding to a maximum efficiency of 66.81%.

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This paper presents a step-up micro-power converter for solar energy harvesting applications. The circuit uses a SC voltage tripler architecture, controlled by an MPPT circuit based on the Hill Climbing algorithm. This circuit was designed in a 0.13 mu m CMOS technology in order to work with an a-Si PV cell. The circuit has a local power supply voltage, created using a scaled down SC voltage tripler, controlled by the same MPPT circuit, to make the circuit robust to load and illumination variations. The SC circuits use a combination of PMOS and NMOS transistors to reduce the occupied area. A charge re-use scheme is used to compensate the large parasitic capacitors associated to the MOS transistors. The simulation results show that the circuit can deliver a power of 1266 mu W to the load using 1712 mu W of power from the PV cell, corresponding to an efficiency as high as 73.91%. The simulations also show that the circuit is capable of starting up with only 19% of the maximum illumination level.

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The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. In this paper, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference approach is proposed for short-term wind power forecasting. Results from a real-world case study are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results obtained with other approaches. Numerical results are presented and conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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This paper presents a direct power control (DPC) for three-phase matrix converters operating as unified power flow controllers (UPFCs). Matrix converters (MCs) allow the direct ac/ac power conversion without dc energy storage links; therefore, the MC-based UPFC (MC-UPFC) has reduced volume and cost, reduced capacitor power losses, together with higher reliability. Theoretical principles of direct power control (DPC) based on sliding mode control techniques are established for an MC-UPFC dynamic model including the input filter. As a result, line active and reactive power, together with ac supply reactive power, can be directly controlled by selecting an appropriate matrix converter switching state guaranteeing good steady-state and dynamic responses. Experimental results of DPC controllers for MC-UPFC show decoupled active and reactive power control, zero steady-state tracking error, and fast response times. Compared to an MC-UPFC using active and reactive power linear controllers based on a modified Venturini high-frequency PWM modulator, the experimental results of the advanced DPC-MC guarantee faster responses without overshoot and no steady-state error, presenting no cross-coupling in dynamic and steady-state responses.

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In this work is proposed the design of a system to create and handle Electric Vehicles (EV) charging procedures, based on intelligent process. Due to the electrical power distribution network limitation and absence of smart meter devices, Electric Vehicles charging should be performed in a balanced way, taking into account past experience, weather information based on data mining, and simulation approaches. In order to allow information exchange and to help user mobility, it was also created a mobile application to assist the EV driver on these processes. This proposed Smart ElectricVehicle Charging System uses Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology, in order to connect Electric Vehicles and also renewable energy sources to Smart Grids (SG). This system also explores the new paradigm of Electrical Markets (EM), with deregulation of electricity production and use, in order to obtain the best conditions for commercializing electrical energy.

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As it is well known, competitive electricity markets require new computing tools for power companies that operate in retail markets in order to enhance the management of its energy resources. During the last years there has been an increase of the renewable penetration into the micro-generation which begins to co-exist with the other existing power generation, giving rise to a new type of consumers. This paper develops a methodology to be applied to the management of the all the aggregators. The aggregator establishes bilateral contracts with its clients where the energy purchased and selling conditions are negotiated not only in terms of prices but also for other conditions that allow more flexibility in the way generation and consumption is addressed. The aggregator agent needs a tool to support the decision making in order to compose and select its customers' portfolio in an optimal way, for a given level of profitability and risk.

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In this work a new probabilistic and dynamical approach to an extension of the Gompertz law is proposed. A generalized family of probability density functions, designated by Beta* (p, q), which is proportional to the right hand side of the Tsoularis-Wallace model, is studied. In particular, for p = 2, the investigation is extended to the extreme value models of Weibull and Frechet type. These models, described by differential equations, are proportional to the hyper-Gompertz growth model. It is proved that the Beta* (2, q) densities are a power of betas mixture, and that its dynamics are determined by a non-linear coupling of probabilities. The dynamical analysis is performed using techniques of symbolic dynamics and the system complexity is measured using topological entropy. Generally, the natural history of a malignant tumour is reflected through bifurcation diagrams, in which are identified regions of regression, stability, bifurcation, chaos and terminus.

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A start-up circuit, used in a micro-power indoor light energy harvesting system, is described. This start-up circuit achieves two goals: first, to produce a reset signal, power-on-reset (POR), for the energy harvesting system, and secondly, to temporarily shunt the output of the photovoltaic (PV) cells, to the output node of the system, which is connected to a capacitor. This capacitor is charged to a suitable value, so that a voltage step-up converter starts operating, thus increasing the output voltage to a larger value than the one provided by the PV cells. A prototype of the circuit was manufactured in a 130 nm CMOS technology, occupying an area of only 0.019 mm(2). Experimental results demonstrate the correct operation of the circuit, being able to correctly start-up the system, even when having an input as low as 390 mV using, in this case, an estimated energy of only 5.3 pJ to produce the start-up.

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Os Projectos de Investimento desempenham um importante papel no crescimento económico-social dos países, proporcionando emprego e desenvolvimento tecnológico. Na óptica dos projectos inovadores, concretamente no sector das energias renováveis, acarretam elevados investimentos, numa base temporal de longo prazo. Nestes casos as decisões estratégicas assumem um papel determinante, assim, o principal objectivo desta dissertação é a utilização das Opções Reais como métrica de avaliação dos projectos de investimento. A análise e avaliação dos projectos implica em si incerteza nas previsões, desta forma, as Opções Reais minimizam o risco associado à incerteza através da inclusão da flexibilidade no processo de avaliação. A primeira parte da dissertação consiste na contextualização energética mundial e nacional, ao nível da energia primária e das energias renováveis, com incidência na energia eólica. A segunda consiste na introdução teórica dos projectos de investimento e dos conceitos inerentes às Opções Financeiras e às Opções Reais. Por último, apresenta-se um caso de estudo de construção de três parques eólicos e as consequentes decisões de investimento concluindo que os modelos de avaliação das Opções Reais proporcionam alternativas e interdependência em investimentos futuros.

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Wireless local-area networks (WLANs) have been deployed as office and home communications infrastructures worldwide. The diversification of the standards, such as IEEE 802.11 series demands the design of RF front-ends. Low power consumption is one of the most important design concerns in the application of those technologies. To maintain competitive hardware costs, CMOS has been used since it is the best solution for low cost and high integration processing, allowing analog circuits to be mixed with digital ones. In the receiver chain, the low noise amplifier (LNA) is one of the most critical blocks in a transceiver design. The sensitivity is mainly determined by the LNA noise figure and gain. It interfaces with the pre-select filter and the mixer. Furthermore, since it is the first gain stage, care must be taken to provide accurate input match, low-noise figure, good linearity and a sufficient gain over a wide band of operation. Several CMOS LNAs have been reported during the last decade, showing that the most research has been done at 802.11/b and GSM standards (900-2400MHz spectrum) and more recently at 802.11/a (5GHz band). One of the more significant disadvantages of 802.11/b is that the frequency band is crowded and subject to interference from other technologies, as is 2.4GHz cordless phones and Bluetooth. As the demand for radio-frequency integrated circuits, operating at higher frequency bands, increases, the IEEE 802.11/a standard becomes a very attractive option to wireless communication system developers. This paper presents the design and implementation of a low power, low noise amplifier aimed at IEEE 802.11a for WLAN applications. It was designed to be integrated with an active balun and mixer, representing the first step toward a fully integrated monolithic WLAN receiver. All the required circuits are integrated at the same die and are powered by 1.8V supply source. Preliminary experimental results (S-parameters) are shown and promise excellent results. The LNA circuit design details are illustrated in Section 2. Spectre simulation results focused at gain, noise figure (NF) and input/output matching are presented in Section 3. Finally, conclusions and comparison with other recently reported LNAs are made in Section 4, followed by future work.

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Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica