Idiosyncratic risk really drives stock returns; Spanish evidence

Following the theoretical model of Merton (1987), we provide a new perspective of study about the role of idiosyncratic risk in the asset pricing process. More precisely, we analyze whether the idiosyncratic risk premium depends on the idiosyncratic risk level of an asset as well as the vatriation in the market-wide measure of idiosyncratic risk. As expected, we obtain a net positive risk premium for the Spanish stock market over the period 1987-2007. Our results show a positive relation between returns and individual indiosyncratic risk levels and a negative but lower relation with the aggregate measure of idiosyncratic risk. These findings have important implications for portfolio and risk management and contribute to provide a unified and coherent answer for the main and still unsolved question about the idiosyncratic risk puzzle: whether or not there exists a premium associated to this kind of risk and the sign for this risk premium.

Reward-risk efficiency in proportional reinsurance with different risk measures

We have studied, in particular under normality of the implied random variables, the connections between different measures of risk such as the standard deviation, the W-ruin probability and the p-V@R. We discuss conditions granting the equivalence of these measures with respect to risk preference relations and the equivalence of dominance and efficiency of risk-reward criteria involving these measures. Then more specifically we applied these concepts to rigorously face the problem of finding the efficient set of de Finetti’s variable quota share proportional reinsurance.

A risk-averse optimization model for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty

In this paper, a stochastic programming approach is proposed for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty. Uncertainty in the energy market prices is the main cause of high volatility of profits achieved by power producers. The volatile and intermittent nature of wind energy represents another source of uncertainty. Hence, each uncertain parameter is modeled by scenarios, where each scenario represents a plausible realization of the uncertain parameters with an associated occurrence probability. Also, an appropriate risk measurement is considered. The proposed approach is applied on a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Role of malnutrition and parasite infections in the spatial variation in children’s anaemia risk in Northern Angola

Anaemia has a significant impact on child development and mortality and is a severe public health problem in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Nutritional and infectious causes of anaemia are geographically variable and anaemia maps based on information on the major aetiologies of anaemia are important for identifying communities most in need and the relative contribution of major causes. We investigated the consistency between ecological and individual-level approaches to anaemia mapping, by building spatial anaemia models for children aged ≤15 years using different modeling approaches. We aimed to a) quantify the role of malnutrition, malaria, Schistosoma haematobium and soil-transmitted helminths (STH) for anaemia endemicity in children aged ≤15 years and b) develop a high resolution predictive risk map of anaemia for the municipality of Dande in Northern Angola. We used parasitological survey data on children aged ≤15 years to build Bayesian geostatistical models of malaria (PfPR≤15), S. haematobium, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura and predict small-scale spatial variation in these infections. The predictions and their associated uncertainty were used as inputs for a model of anemia prevalence to predict small-scale spatial variation of anaemia. Stunting, PfPR≤15, and S. haematobium infections were significantly associated with anaemia risk. An estimated 12.5%, 15.6%, and 9.8%, of anaemia cases could be averted by treating malnutrition, malaria, S. haematobium, respectively. Spatial clusters of high risk of anaemia (>86%) were identified. Using an individual-level approach to anaemia mapping at a small spatial scale, we found that anaemia in children aged ≤15 years is highly heterogeneous and that malnutrition and parasitic infections are important contributors to the spatial variation in anemia risk. The results presented in this study can help inform the integration of the current provincial malaria control program with ancillary micronutrient supplementation and control of neglected tropical diseases, such as urogenital schistosomiasis and STH infection.

Criação de valor, gestão de risco e as medidas de performance ajustadas ao risco: aplicação do RAROC - Risk Adjustment Return on Capital - ao grupo crédito agrícola

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras

Role of malnutrition and parasite infections in the spatial variation in children’s anaemia risk in northern Angola

Anaemia is known to have an impact on child development and mortality and is a severe public health problem in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated the consistency between ecological and individual-level approaches to anaemia mapping by building spatial anaemia models for children aged ≤15 years using different modelling approaches. We aimed to (i) quantify the role of malnutrition, malaria, Schistosoma haematobium and soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) in anaemia endemicity; and (ii) develop a high resolution predictive risk map of anaemia for the municipality of Dande in northern Angola. We used parasitological survey data for children aged ≤15 years to build Bayesian geostatistical models of malaria (PfPR≤15), S. haematobium, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura and predict small-scale spatial variations in these infections. Malnutrition, PfPR≤15, and S. haematobium infections were significantly associated with anaemia risk. An estimated 12.5%, 15.6% and 9.8% of anaemia cases could be averted by treating malnutrition, malaria and S. haematobium, respectively. Spatial clusters of high risk of anaemia (>86%) were identified. Using an individual-level approach to anaemia mapping at a small spatial scale, we found that anaemia in children aged ≤15 years is highly heterogeneous and that malnutrition and parasitic infections are important contributors to the spatial variation in anaemia risk. The results presented in this study can help inform the integration of the current provincial malaria control programme with ancillary micronutrient supplementation and control of neglected tropical diseases such as urogenital schistosomiasis and STH infections.

Risk analysis in a Portuguese archive what has changed in five years?

The Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model was applied in 2006 to a Portuguese archive located in Lisbon. Its results highlighted the need for the institution to take care of risks related to fire, physical forces and relative humidity problems. Five years after this first analysis the results are revisited and a few changes are introduced due to recent events: fire and high humidity remain an important hazard but are now accompanied by a pressing contaminants problem. Improvements in storage systems were responsible for a large decrease in terms of calculated risk magnitude and proved to be very cost-effective.

Haptoglobin, acid phosphatase and demographic factors: obesity risk

The aim of this work is to study the risk of obesity posed by two genetic factors: haptoglobin phenotype and acid phosphatase phenotype, one enzymatic activity: acid phosphatase activity (ACP1), age and gender. Haptoglobin (Hp) is a protein of the immune system, and three phenotypes of Hp are found in humans: Hp1-1, Hp2-1, and Hp2-2. This protein is associated with a susceptibility to common pathological conditions, such as obesity. ACP1 is an intracellular enzyme The phenotypes of ACP1 (AA, AB, AC, BB, BC, CC) are also considered. We took a sample of 127 subjects with complete data from 714 registers. Since we intend to identify risk factors for obesity, an ordinal regression model is adjusted, using the Body Mass Index, BMI, to define weight categories. Haptoglobin phenotype, enzymatic activity of ACP1, acid phosphatase phenotype, age and gender are considered as regressor variables. We found three factors associated with an increased risk of obesity: phenotype Hp2-1 of haptoglobin (estimated odds ratio OR 11.54), phenotype AA of acid phosphatase (OR 33.788) and age (OR 1.39). The interaction between phenotype Hp2-1 and phenotype AC is associated with a decreased risk of obesity (OR 0.032); The interaction between phenotype AA and ACP1 activity is associated with a decreased risk of obesity (OR 0.954).

Assessment of nursing students and nurses' orientation towards patient-centeredness

Background - Being patient centered is a core value for nursing. Patient centered-care has been related to patient and health provider satisfaction, better health outcomes, higher quality of care and more efficient health care delivery. Objectives - The purpose was to assess the orientation adopted by nurses and students in patient care, using The Patient-Practitioner Orientation Scale, as well as to compare the results between resident nurses and students from different academic years. Settings - Public School of Nursing and a Central Hospital, in Lisbon (Portugal). Participants - Students in the first, second and fourth year of nursing school and nurses participated in the study. Methods - For data collection, we used The Patient-Practitioner Orientation Scale (European Portuguese version), an instrument designed to measure individual preferences toward the dimension of caring a sharing in health professional-patient relationship. Students and nurses also filled out two additional questions about their perception of competence in technical and communication skills. Additional demographic information was also collected, including gender, age, academic year and length of professional experience. Results - A total of 525 students (84.7% female) and 108 nurses (77.8% female) participated in this study. In general, caring sub-scores, measuring the preference of about attending to patient emotional aspects, were higher than sharing sub-scores, measuring beliefs about giving information and perceiving patient as a member of the health team. Students were significantly more patient-centered throughout their nursing education (p<0.001). Comparing to students in the second and fourth academic years (p<0.001) nurses' scores were significantly lower both in total PPOS and in caring and sharing subscales. Conclusions - These results reinforce the idea that patient centeredness may be developed in academic context. The scores obtained highlight the importance of studies that aim to identify factors that may explain the decrease of patient centeredness in professional practice.

Risk factors for metabolic bone disease in Crohn's disease patients

Background: The aim was to evaluate the presence of metabolic bone disease (MBD) in patients with Crohn’s disease (CD) and to identify potential etiologic factors. Methods: The case–control study included 99 patients with CD and 56 controls with a similar age and gender distribution. Both groups had dual-energy x-ray absorptionmetry and a nutritional evaluation. Single nucleotide polymorphisms at the IL1, TNF-a, LTa, and IL-6 genes were analyzed in patients only. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software. Results: The prevalence of MBD was significantly higher in patients (P ¼ 0.006). CD patients with osteoporosis were older (P < 0.005), small bowel involvement and surgical resections were more frequent (P < 0.005), they more often exhibited a penetrating or stricturing phenotype (P < 0.05), duration of disease over 15 years (P < 0.005), and body mass index (BMI) under 18.5 kg/m2 (P < 0.01) were more often found. No association was found with steroid use. Patients with a Z-score < 2.0 more frequently had chronic active disease (P < 0.05). With regard to diet, low vitamin K intake was more frequent (P ¼ 0.03) and intake of total, monounsaturated, and polyunsaturated fat was higher in patients with Z-score < 2.0 (P < 0.05). With respect to genetics, carriage of the polymorphic allele for LTa252 A/G was associated with a higher risk of osteoporosis (P ¼ 0.02). Regression analysis showed that age over 40 years, chronic active disease, and previous colonic resections were independently associated with the risk of developing MBD. Conclusions: The prevalence of MBD was significantly higher in CD patients. Besides the usual risk factors, we observed that factors related to chronic active and long-lasting disease increased the risk of MBD.

Risk of colorectal cancer associated with the C677T polymorphism in 5,10-methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase in Portuguese patients depends on the intake of methyl-donor nutrients

Background: Polymorphisms located in genes involved in the metabolism of folate and some methyl-related nutrients are implicated in colorectal cancer (CRC). Objective: We evaluated the association of 3 genetic polymorphisms [C677T MTHFR (methylene tetrahydrofolate reductase), A2756G MTR (methionine synthase), and C1420T SHMT (serine hydroxymethyltransferase)] with the intake of methyl-donor nutrients in CRC risk. Design: Patients withCRC(n 196) and healthy controls (n 200) matched for age and sex were evaluated for intake of methyl-donor nutrients and the 3 polymorphisms. Results: Except for folate intake, which was significantly lower in patients (P 0.02), no differences were observed in the dietary intake of other methyl-donor nutrients between groups. High intake of folate ( 406.7 g/d) was associated with a significantly lower risk of CRC (odds ratio: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.45, 0.99). The A2756G MTR polymorphism was not associated with the risk of developing CRC. In contrast, homozygosity for the C677TMTHFRvariant (TT) presented a 3.0-fold increased risk of CRC (95% CI: 1.3, 6.7). Similarly, homozygosity for the C1420T SHMT polymorphism also had a 2.6-fold increased risk (95% CI: 1.1, 5.9) of developing CRC. When interactions between variables were studied, low intake of all methyl-donor nutrients was associated with an increased risk ofCRC in homozygous participants for the C677T MTHFR polymorphism, but a statistically significant interaction was only observed for folate (odds ratio: 14.0; 95% CI: 1.8, 108.5). No significant associations were seen for MTR or SHMT polymorphisms. Conclusion: These results show an association between the C677T MTHFR variant and different folate intakes on risk of CRC.

Q192R polymorphism of the paraoxonase-1 gene as a risk factor for obesity in Portuguese women

Introduction - Obesity became a major public health problem as a result of its increasing prevalence worldwide. Paraoxonase-1 (PON1) is an esterase able to protect membranes and lipoproteins from oxidative modifications. At the PON1 gene, several polymorphisms in the promoter and coding regions have been identified. The aims of this study were i) to assess PON1 L55M and Q192R polymorphisms as a risk factor for obesity in women; ii) to compare PON1 activity according to the expression of each allele in L55M and Q192R polymorphisms; iii) to compare PON1 activity between obese and normal-weight women. Materials and methods - We studied 75 healthy (35.9±8.2 years) and 81 obese women (34.3±8.2 years). Inclusion criteria for obese subjects were body mass index ≥30 kg/m2 and absence of inflammatory/neoplasic conditions or kidney/hepatic dysfunction. The two PON1 polymorphisms were assessed by real-time PCR with TaqMan probes. PON1 enzymatic activity was assessed by spectrophotometric methods, using paraoxon as a substrate. Results - No significant differences were found for PON1 activity between normal and obese women. Nevertheless, PON1 activity was greater (P<0.01) for the RR genotype (in Q192R polymorphism) and for the LL genotype (in L55M polymorphism). The frequency of allele R of Q192R polymorphism was significantly higher in obese women (P<0.05) and was associated with an increased risk of obesity (odds ratio=2.0 – 95% confidence interval (1.04; 3.87)). Conclusion - 55M and Q192R polymorphisms influence PON1 activity. The allele R of the Q192R polymorphism is associated with an increased risk for development of obesity among Portuguese Caucasian premenopausal women.

5' and 3' UTR thymidylate synthase polymorphisms modulate the risk of colorectal cancer independently of the intake of methyl group donors

Thymidylate synthase, as a rate-limiting step in DNA synthesis, catalyses the conversion of dUMP into dTMP using 5,10-methylenotetrahydrofolate as the methyl donor. Two polymorphisms have been described in this gene: a repeat polymorphism in the 5' promoter enhancer region (3R versus 2R) and a 6 bp deletion in the 3' unstranslated region. Both of these may affect protein levels. The present case control study was aimed at investigating the influence of these two polymorphisms on the development of colorectal cancer (CRC), as well as their potential interaction with folate, vitamin B6 and vitamin B12 intake. A total of 196 cases and 200 controls, matched for age and sex distribution, were included in the study. No association was found between CRC and the 28 bp repeat polymorphism, but it was observed that individuals with the 6 bp/del and del/del genotypes had a significantly lower risk of developing the disease (OR=0.47; 95% CI 0.30-0.72). A combined genotype (2R/2R; 6 bp/del+del/del) was also found, which was associated with an even lower risk of developing of the disease (OR=0.42; 95% CI 0.26-0.69). No significant interaction between these polymorphisms and vitamin intake was observed. These results indicate for the first time that the 6 bp/del allele might be a protective factor in the development of CRC, independent of the intake of methyl group donors.

The D1822V APC polymorphism interacts with fat, calcium, and fiber intakes in modulating the risk of colorectal cancer in Portuguese persons

Background - Both genetic and environmental factors affect the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Objective - We aimed to examine the interaction between the D1822V polymorphism of the APC gene and dietary intake in persons with CRC. Design - Persons with CRC (n = 196) and 200 healthy volunteers, matched for age and sex in a case-control study, were evaluated with respect to nutritional status and lifestyle factors and for the D1822V polymorphism. Results - No significant differences were observed in energy and macronutrient intakes. Cases had significantly (P < 0.05) lower intakes of carotenes, vitamins C and E, folate, and calcium than did controls. Fiber intake was significantly (P = 0.004) lower in cases than in controls, whereas alcohol consumption was associated with a 2-fold risk of CRC. In addition, cases were significantly (P = 0.001) more likely than were controls to be sedentary. The homozygous variant for the APC gene (VV) was found in 4.6% of cases and in 3.5% of controls. Examination of the potential interactions between diet and genotype found that a high cholesterol intake was associated with a greater risk of colorectal cancer only in noncarriers (DD) of the D1822V APC allele (odds ratio: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.00, 2.76). In contrast, high fiber and calcium intakes were more markedly associated with a lower risk of CRC in patients carrying the polymorphic allele (DV/VV) (odds ratio: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.27, 0.94 for fiber; odds ratio: 0.51; 95% CI: 0.28, 0.93 for calcium) than in those without that allele. Conclusion - These results suggest a significant interaction between the D1822V polymorphism and the dietary intakes of cholesterol, calcium, and fiber for CRC risk.

Between theory and practice – teaching maths to elementary school students in Poland

The development of children's school achievements in mathematics is one of the most important aims of education in Poland. The results of research concerning monitoring of school achievements in maths is not optimistic. We can observe low levels of children’s understanding of the merits of maths, self-developed strategies in solving problems and practical usage of maths skills. This article frames the discussion of this problem in its psychological and didactic context and analyses the causes as they relate to school practice in teaching maths