Criação de valor, gestão de risco e as medidas de performance ajustadas ao risco: aplicação do RAROC - Risk Adjustment Return on Capital - ao grupo crédito agrícola

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras

Role of malnutrition and parasite infections in the spatial variation in children’s anaemia risk in northern Angola

Anaemia is known to have an impact on child development and mortality and is a severe public health problem in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated the consistency between ecological and individual-level approaches to anaemia mapping by building spatial anaemia models for children aged ≤15 years using different modelling approaches. We aimed to (i) quantify the role of malnutrition, malaria, Schistosoma haematobium and soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) in anaemia endemicity; and (ii) develop a high resolution predictive risk map of anaemia for the municipality of Dande in northern Angola. We used parasitological survey data for children aged ≤15 years to build Bayesian geostatistical models of malaria (PfPR≤15), S. haematobium, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura and predict small-scale spatial variations in these infections. Malnutrition, PfPR≤15, and S. haematobium infections were significantly associated with anaemia risk. An estimated 12.5%, 15.6% and 9.8% of anaemia cases could be averted by treating malnutrition, malaria and S. haematobium, respectively. Spatial clusters of high risk of anaemia (>86%) were identified. Using an individual-level approach to anaemia mapping at a small spatial scale, we found that anaemia in children aged ≤15 years is highly heterogeneous and that malnutrition and parasitic infections are important contributors to the spatial variation in anaemia risk. The results presented in this study can help inform the integration of the current provincial malaria control programme with ancillary micronutrient supplementation and control of neglected tropical diseases such as urogenital schistosomiasis and STH infections.

Opções reais: Avaliação do projecto de investimento de três parques eólicos em ambiente onshore e offshore

Os Projectos de Investimento desempenham um importante papel no crescimento económico-social dos países, proporcionando emprego e desenvolvimento tecnológico. Na óptica dos projectos inovadores, concretamente no sector das energias renováveis, acarretam elevados investimentos, numa base temporal de longo prazo. Nestes casos as decisões estratégicas assumem um papel determinante, assim, o principal objectivo desta dissertação é a utilização das Opções Reais como métrica de avaliação dos projectos de investimento. A análise e avaliação dos projectos implica em si incerteza nas previsões, desta forma, as Opções Reais minimizam o risco associado à incerteza através da inclusão da flexibilidade no processo de avaliação. A primeira parte da dissertação consiste na contextualização energética mundial e nacional, ao nível da energia primária e das energias renováveis, com incidência na energia eólica. A segunda consiste na introdução teórica dos projectos de investimento e dos conceitos inerentes às Opções Financeiras e às Opções Reais. Por último, apresenta-se um caso de estudo de construção de três parques eólicos e as consequentes decisões de investimento concluindo que os modelos de avaliação das Opções Reais proporcionam alternativas e interdependência em investimentos futuros.

Risk analysis in a Portuguese archive what has changed in five years?

The Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model was applied in 2006 to a Portuguese archive located in Lisbon. Its results highlighted the need for the institution to take care of risks related to fire, physical forces and relative humidity problems. Five years after this first analysis the results are revisited and a few changes are introduced due to recent events: fire and high humidity remain an important hazard but are now accompanied by a pressing contaminants problem. Improvements in storage systems were responsible for a large decrease in terms of calculated risk magnitude and proved to be very cost-effective.

Haptoglobin, acid phosphatase and demographic factors: obesity risk

The aim of this work is to study the risk of obesity posed by two genetic factors: haptoglobin phenotype and acid phosphatase phenotype, one enzymatic activity: acid phosphatase activity (ACP1), age and gender. Haptoglobin (Hp) is a protein of the immune system, and three phenotypes of Hp are found in humans: Hp1-1, Hp2-1, and Hp2-2. This protein is associated with a susceptibility to common pathological conditions, such as obesity. ACP1 is an intracellular enzyme The phenotypes of ACP1 (AA, AB, AC, BB, BC, CC) are also considered. We took a sample of 127 subjects with complete data from 714 registers. Since we intend to identify risk factors for obesity, an ordinal regression model is adjusted, using the Body Mass Index, BMI, to define weight categories. Haptoglobin phenotype, enzymatic activity of ACP1, acid phosphatase phenotype, age and gender are considered as regressor variables. We found three factors associated with an increased risk of obesity: phenotype Hp2-1 of haptoglobin (estimated odds ratio OR 11.54), phenotype AA of acid phosphatase (OR 33.788) and age (OR 1.39). The interaction between phenotype Hp2-1 and phenotype AC is associated with a decreased risk of obesity (OR 0.032); The interaction between phenotype AA and ACP1 activity is associated with a decreased risk of obesity (OR 0.954).

Risk factors for metabolic bone disease in Crohn's disease patients

Background: The aim was to evaluate the presence of metabolic bone disease (MBD) in patients with Crohn’s disease (CD) and to identify potential etiologic factors. Methods: The case–control study included 99 patients with CD and 56 controls with a similar age and gender distribution. Both groups had dual-energy x-ray absorptionmetry and a nutritional evaluation. Single nucleotide polymorphisms at the IL1, TNF-a, LTa, and IL-6 genes were analyzed in patients only. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software. Results: The prevalence of MBD was significantly higher in patients (P ¼ 0.006). CD patients with osteoporosis were older (P < 0.005), small bowel involvement and surgical resections were more frequent (P < 0.005), they more often exhibited a penetrating or stricturing phenotype (P < 0.05), duration of disease over 15 years (P < 0.005), and body mass index (BMI) under 18.5 kg/m2 (P < 0.01) were more often found. No association was found with steroid use. Patients with a Z-score < 2.0 more frequently had chronic active disease (P < 0.05). With regard to diet, low vitamin K intake was more frequent (P ¼ 0.03) and intake of total, monounsaturated, and polyunsaturated fat was higher in patients with Z-score < 2.0 (P < 0.05). With respect to genetics, carriage of the polymorphic allele for LTa252 A/G was associated with a higher risk of osteoporosis (P ¼ 0.02). Regression analysis showed that age over 40 years, chronic active disease, and previous colonic resections were independently associated with the risk of developing MBD. Conclusions: The prevalence of MBD was significantly higher in CD patients. Besides the usual risk factors, we observed that factors related to chronic active and long-lasting disease increased the risk of MBD.

Risk of colorectal cancer associated with the C677T polymorphism in 5,10-methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase in Portuguese patients depends on the intake of methyl-donor nutrients

Background: Polymorphisms located in genes involved in the metabolism of folate and some methyl-related nutrients are implicated in colorectal cancer (CRC). Objective: We evaluated the association of 3 genetic polymorphisms [C677T MTHFR (methylene tetrahydrofolate reductase), A2756G MTR (methionine synthase), and C1420T SHMT (serine hydroxymethyltransferase)] with the intake of methyl-donor nutrients in CRC risk. Design: Patients withCRC(n 196) and healthy controls (n 200) matched for age and sex were evaluated for intake of methyl-donor nutrients and the 3 polymorphisms. Results: Except for folate intake, which was significantly lower in patients (P 0.02), no differences were observed in the dietary intake of other methyl-donor nutrients between groups. High intake of folate ( 406.7 g/d) was associated with a significantly lower risk of CRC (odds ratio: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.45, 0.99). The A2756G MTR polymorphism was not associated with the risk of developing CRC. In contrast, homozygosity for the C677TMTHFRvariant (TT) presented a 3.0-fold increased risk of CRC (95% CI: 1.3, 6.7). Similarly, homozygosity for the C1420T SHMT polymorphism also had a 2.6-fold increased risk (95% CI: 1.1, 5.9) of developing CRC. When interactions between variables were studied, low intake of all methyl-donor nutrients was associated with an increased risk ofCRC in homozygous participants for the C677T MTHFR polymorphism, but a statistically significant interaction was only observed for folate (odds ratio: 14.0; 95% CI: 1.8, 108.5). No significant associations were seen for MTR or SHMT polymorphisms. Conclusion: These results show an association between the C677T MTHFR variant and different folate intakes on risk of CRC.

Q192R polymorphism of the paraoxonase-1 gene as a risk factor for obesity in Portuguese women

Introduction - Obesity became a major public health problem as a result of its increasing prevalence worldwide. Paraoxonase-1 (PON1) is an esterase able to protect membranes and lipoproteins from oxidative modifications. At the PON1 gene, several polymorphisms in the promoter and coding regions have been identified. The aims of this study were i) to assess PON1 L55M and Q192R polymorphisms as a risk factor for obesity in women; ii) to compare PON1 activity according to the expression of each allele in L55M and Q192R polymorphisms; iii) to compare PON1 activity between obese and normal-weight women. Materials and methods - We studied 75 healthy (35.9±8.2 years) and 81 obese women (34.3±8.2 years). Inclusion criteria for obese subjects were body mass index ≥30 kg/m2 and absence of inflammatory/neoplasic conditions or kidney/hepatic dysfunction. The two PON1 polymorphisms were assessed by real-time PCR with TaqMan probes. PON1 enzymatic activity was assessed by spectrophotometric methods, using paraoxon as a substrate. Results - No significant differences were found for PON1 activity between normal and obese women. Nevertheless, PON1 activity was greater (P<0.01) for the RR genotype (in Q192R polymorphism) and for the LL genotype (in L55M polymorphism). The frequency of allele R of Q192R polymorphism was significantly higher in obese women (P<0.05) and was associated with an increased risk of obesity (odds ratio=2.0 – 95% confidence interval (1.04; 3.87)). Conclusion - 55M and Q192R polymorphisms influence PON1 activity. The allele R of the Q192R polymorphism is associated with an increased risk for development of obesity among Portuguese Caucasian premenopausal women.

5' and 3' UTR thymidylate synthase polymorphisms modulate the risk of colorectal cancer independently of the intake of methyl group donors

Thymidylate synthase, as a rate-limiting step in DNA synthesis, catalyses the conversion of dUMP into dTMP using 5,10-methylenotetrahydrofolate as the methyl donor. Two polymorphisms have been described in this gene: a repeat polymorphism in the 5' promoter enhancer region (3R versus 2R) and a 6 bp deletion in the 3' unstranslated region. Both of these may affect protein levels. The present case control study was aimed at investigating the influence of these two polymorphisms on the development of colorectal cancer (CRC), as well as their potential interaction with folate, vitamin B6 and vitamin B12 intake. A total of 196 cases and 200 controls, matched for age and sex distribution, were included in the study. No association was found between CRC and the 28 bp repeat polymorphism, but it was observed that individuals with the 6 bp/del and del/del genotypes had a significantly lower risk of developing the disease (OR=0.47; 95% CI 0.30-0.72). A combined genotype (2R/2R; 6 bp/del+del/del) was also found, which was associated with an even lower risk of developing of the disease (OR=0.42; 95% CI 0.26-0.69). No significant interaction between these polymorphisms and vitamin intake was observed. These results indicate for the first time that the 6 bp/del allele might be a protective factor in the development of CRC, independent of the intake of methyl group donors.

The D1822V APC polymorphism interacts with fat, calcium, and fiber intakes in modulating the risk of colorectal cancer in Portuguese persons

Background - Both genetic and environmental factors affect the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Objective - We aimed to examine the interaction between the D1822V polymorphism of the APC gene and dietary intake in persons with CRC. Design - Persons with CRC (n = 196) and 200 healthy volunteers, matched for age and sex in a case-control study, were evaluated with respect to nutritional status and lifestyle factors and for the D1822V polymorphism. Results - No significant differences were observed in energy and macronutrient intakes. Cases had significantly (P < 0.05) lower intakes of carotenes, vitamins C and E, folate, and calcium than did controls. Fiber intake was significantly (P = 0.004) lower in cases than in controls, whereas alcohol consumption was associated with a 2-fold risk of CRC. In addition, cases were significantly (P = 0.001) more likely than were controls to be sedentary. The homozygous variant for the APC gene (VV) was found in 4.6% of cases and in 3.5% of controls. Examination of the potential interactions between diet and genotype found that a high cholesterol intake was associated with a greater risk of colorectal cancer only in noncarriers (DD) of the D1822V APC allele (odds ratio: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.00, 2.76). In contrast, high fiber and calcium intakes were more markedly associated with a lower risk of CRC in patients carrying the polymorphic allele (DV/VV) (odds ratio: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.27, 0.94 for fiber; odds ratio: 0.51; 95% CI: 0.28, 0.93 for calcium) than in those without that allele. Conclusion - These results suggest a significant interaction between the D1822V polymorphism and the dietary intakes of cholesterol, calcium, and fiber for CRC risk.

A gestão baseada no valor: Métricas tradicionais e medidas de performance ajustada ao risco. Risk Adjusted Return on Capital (RAROC) - Aplicação prática à actividade bancária

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras

Risk Assessment of Chronic Exposure to Magnetic Fields near Electrical Apparatus

Conferência: 9th International Symposium on Occupational Safety and Hygiene (SHO) Guimaraes, Portugal - FEB 14-15, 2013

Risk Analysis and Behavior of Electricity Portfolio Aggregator

The scope of this paper is to adapt the standard mean-variance model of Henry Markowitz theory, creating a simulation tool to find the optimal configuration of the portfolio aggregator, calculate its profitability and risk. Currently, there is a deep discussion going on among the power system society about the structure and architecture of the future electric system. In this environment, policy makers and electric utilities find new approaches to access the electricity market; this configures new challenging positions in order to find innovative strategies and methodologies. Decentralized power generation is gaining relevance in liberalized markets, and small and medium size electricity consumers are also become producers (“prosumers”). In this scenario an electric aggregator is an entity that joins a group of electric clients, customers, producers, “prosumers” together as a single purchasing unit to negotiate the purchase and sale of electricity. The aggregator conducts research on electricity prices, contract terms and conditions in order to promote better energy prices for their clients and allows small and medium customers to benefit improved market prices.

Reabilitação de um imóvel industrial em Marvila: projeto de investimento

Trabalho de Projeto para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil

Fungal burden in waste industry: an occupational risk to be solved

High loads of fungi have been reported in different types of waste management plants. This study intends to assess fungal contamination in one waste-sorting plant before and after cleaning procedures in order to analyze their effectiveness. Air samples of 50 L were collected through an impaction method, while surface samples, taken at the same time, were collected by the swabbing method and subject to further macro- and microscopic observations. In addition, we collected air samples of 250 L using the impinger Coriolis μ air sampler (Bertin Technologies) at 300 L/min airflow rate in order to perform real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) amplification of genes from specific fungal species, namely Aspergillus fumigatus and Aspergillus flavus complexes, as well as Stachybotrys chartarum species. Fungal quantification in the air ranged from 180 to 5,280 CFU m−3 before cleaning and from 220 to 2,460 CFU m−3 after cleaning procedures. Surfaces presented results that ranged from 29 × 104 to 109 × 104 CFU m−2 before cleaning and from 11 × 104 to 89 × 104 CFU m−2 after cleaning. Statistically significant differences regarding fungal load were not detected between before and after cleaning procedures. Toxigenic strains from A. flavus complex and S. chartarum were not detected by qPCR. Conversely, the A. fumigatus species was successfully detected by qPCR and interestingly it was amplified in two samples where no detection by conventional methods was observed. Overall, these results reveal the inefficacy of the cleaning procedures and that it is important to determine fungal burden in order to carry out risk assessment.