Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydro energy systems management in Portugal: Profit-based evaluation of a mixed-integer nonlinear approach

In this paper, a novel mixed-integer nonlinear approach is proposed to solve the short-term hydro scheduling problem in the day-ahead electricity market, considering not only head-dependency, but also start/stop of units, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. Results from a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro energy systems are presented, showing that the proposedmixed-integer nonlinear approach is proficient. Conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid intelligent approach

In this paper, a hybrid intelligent approach is proposed for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. The proposed approach is based on the wavelet transform and a hybrid of neural networks and fuzzy logic. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Micro-generation Evaluation of the Zero Emissions Technologies in the Portuguese Market

Micro-generation is the small scale production of heat and/or electricity from a low carbon source and can be a powerful driver for carbon reduction, behavior change, security of supply and economic value. The energy conversion technologies can include photovoltaic panels, micro combined heat and power, micro wind, heat pumps, solar thermal systems, fuel cells and micro hydro schemes. In this paper, a small research of the availability of the conversion apparatus and the prices for the micro wind turbines and photovoltaic systems is made and a comparison between these two technologies is performed in terms of the availability of the resource and costs. An analysis of the new legal framework published in Portugal is done to realize if the incentives to individualspsila investment in sustainable and local energy production is worth for their point of view. An economic evaluation for these alternatives, accounting with the governmentpsilas incentives should lead, in most cases, into attractive return rates for the investment. Apart from the attractiveness of the investment there are though other aspects that should be taken into account and those are the benefits that these choices have to us all. The idea is that micro-generation will not only make a significant direct contribution to carbon reduction targets, it will also trigger a multiplier effect in behavior change by engaging hearts and minds, and providing more efficient use of energy by householders. The diversified profile of power generation by micro-generators, both in terms of location and timing, should reduce the impact of intermittency or plant failures with significant gains for security of supply.

Impact of a price-maker pumped storage hydro unit on the integration of wind energy in power systems

The increasing integration of larger amounts of wind energy into power systems raises important operational issues, such as the balance between power generation and demand. The pumped storage hydro (PSH) units are one possible solution to mitigate this problem, once they can store the excess of energy in the periods of higher generation and lower demand. However, the behaviour of a PSH unit may differ considerably from the expected in terms of wind power integration when it operates in a liberalized electricity market under a price-maker context. In this regard, this paper models and computes the optimal PSH weekly scheduling in a price-taker and price-maker scenarios, either when the PSH unit operates in standalone and integrated in a portfolio of other generation assets. Results show that the price-maker standalone PSH will integrate less wind power in comparison with the price-taker situation. Moreover, when the PSH unit is integrated in a portfolio with a base load power plant, the role of the price elasticity of demand may completely change the operational profile of the PSH unit. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Market power analysis in the Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations model

In the last years the electricity industry has faced a restructuring process. Among the aims of this process was the increase in competition, especially in the generation activity where firms would have an incentive to become more efficient. However, the competitive behavior of generating firms might jeopardize the expected benefits of the electricity industry liberalization. The present paper proposes a conjectural variations model to study the competitive behavior of generating firms acting in liberalized electricity markets. The model computes a parameter that represents the degree of competition of each generating firm in each trading period. In this regard, the proposed model provides a powerful methodology for regulatory and competition authorities to monitor the competitive behavior of generating firms. As an application of the model, a study of the day-ahead Iberian electricity market (MIBEL) was conducted to analyze the impact of the integration of the Portuguese and Spanish electricity markets on the behavior of generating firms taking into account the hourly results of the months of June and July of 2007. The advantages of the proposed methodology over other methodologies used to address market power, namely Residual Supply index and Lerner index are highlighted. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competetive market by a hybrid Pso-Anfis approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Market trends and dilemmas of parenthal participation in schools

Este artigo descreve e analisa o impacto da definição e implementação de um novo modelo de gestão dos estabelecimentos de ensino não superior (Dec-lei nº115_A/98) nos padrões de cidadania e equidade do ensino público Português. A institucionalização deste modelo representa uma mudança na matriz centralista e burocrática do referido ensino público e sugere uma aproximação às concepções neo-gerencialistas e neo-liberais que, desde meados dos anos 80, têm dominado a agenda política de muitos países desenvolvidos e de alguns organismos internacionais. Os resultados da pesquisa sugerem que a implementação do novo modelo de gestão contribuiu para reforçar os padrões de diferenciação social no ensino básico (1ºciclo) e, mais especificamente, para preservar as .vantagens competitivas. da classe média na escola pública Portuguesa.

Risk Aversion in a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Approach to Support Decision-Making for a Hydro Power Producer

In this paper, a mixed-integer nonlinear approach is proposed to support decision-making for a hydro power producer, considering a head-dependent hydro chain. The aim is to maximize the profit of the hydro power producer from selling energy into the electric market. As a new contribution to earlier studies, a risk aversion criterion is taken into account, as well as head-dependency. The volatility of the expected profit is limited through the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). The proposed approach has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems.

Predictive Optimal Matrix Converter Control for a Dynamic Voltage Restorer with Flywheel Energy Storage

This paper presents a predictive optimal matrix converter controller for a flywheel energy storage system used as Dynamic Voltage Restorer (DVR). The flywheel energy storage device is based on a steel seamless tube mounted as a vertical axis flywheel to store kinetic energy. The motor/generator is a Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machine driven by the AC-AC Matrix Converter. The matrix control method uses a discrete-time model of the converter system to predict the expected values of the input and output currents for all the 27 possible vectors generated by the matrix converter. An optimal controller minimizes control errors using a weighted cost functional. The flywheel and control process was tested as a DVR to mitigate voltage sags and swells. Simulation results show that the DVR is able to compensate the critical load voltage without delays, voltage undershoots or overshoots, overcoming the input/output coupling of matrix converters.

Scaling of the elastic contribution to the surface free energy of a nematic liquid crystal on a sawtoothed substrate

We characterize the elastic contribution to the surface free energy of a nematic liquid crystal in the presence of a sawtooth substrate. Our findings are based on numerical minimization of the Landau-de Gennes model and analytical calculations on the Frank-Oseen theory. The nucleation of disclination lines (characterized by non-half-integer winding numbers) in the wedges and apexes of the substrate induces a leading order proportional to q ln q to the elastic contribution to the surface free-energy density, with q being the wave number associated with the substrate periodicity.

Scheduling of head-dependent cascaded reservoirs considering discharge ramping constraints and start/stop of units

This paper is on the problem of short-term hydro scheduling (STHS), particularly concerning head-dependent reservoirs under competitive environment. We propose a novel method, based on mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP), for optimising power generation efficiency. This method considers hydroelectric power generation as a nonlinear function of water discharge and of the head. The main contribution of this paper is that discharge ramping constraints and start/stop of units are also considered, in order to obtain more realistic and feasible results. The proposed method has been applied successfully to solve two case studies based on Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, providing a higher profit at an acceptable computation time in comparison with classical optimisation methods based on mixed-integer linear programming (MILP).

Power converter topologies for wind energy conversion systems: Integrated modeling, control strategy and performance simulation

This paper presents new integrated model for variable-speed wind energy conversion systems, considering a more accurate dynamic of the wind turbine, rotor, generator, power converter and filter. Pulse width modulation by space vector modulation associated with sliding mode is used for controlling the power converters. Also, power factor control is introduced at the output of the power converters. Comprehensive performance simulation studies are carried out with matrix, two-level and multilevel power converter topologies in order to adequately assert the system performance. Conclusions are duly drawn.

O impacto energético e as emissões de CO2 dos veículos eléctricos em Portugal

Para a diminuição da dependência energética de Portugal face às importações de energia, a Estratégia Nacional para a Energia 2020 (ENE 2020) define uma aposta na produção de energia a partir de fontes renováveis, na promoção da eficiência energética tanto nos edifícios como nos transportes com vista a reduzir as emissões de gases com efeito de estufa. No campo da eficiência energética, o ENE 2020 pretende obter uma poupança energética de 9,8% face a valores de 2008, traduzindo-se em perto de 1800 milhões de tep já em 2015. Uma das medidas passa pela aposta na mobilidade eléctrica, onde se prevê que os veículos eléctricos possam contribuir significativamente para a redução do consumo de combustível e por conseguinte, para a redução das emissões de CO2 para a atmosfera. No entanto, esta redução está condicionada pelas fontes de energia utilizadas para o abastecimento das baterias. Neste estudo foram determinados os consumos de combustível e as emissões de CO2 de um veículo de combustão interna adimensional representativo do parque automóvel. É também estimada a previsão de crescimento do parque automóvel num cenário "Business-as-Usual", através dos métodos de previsão tecnológica para o horizonte 2010-2030, bem como cenários de penetração de veículos eléctricos para o mesmo período com base no método de Fisher- Pry. É ainda analisado o impacto que a introdução dos veículos eléctricos tem ao nível dos consumos de combustível, das emissões de dióxido de carbono e qual o impacto que tal medida terá na rede eléctrica, nomeadamente no diagrama de carga e no nível de emissões de CO2 do Sistema Electroprodutor Nacional. Por fim, é avaliado o impacto dos veículos eléctricos no diagrama de carga diário português, com base em vários perfis de carga das baterias. A introdução de veículos eléctricos em Portugal terá pouca expressão dado que, no melhor dos cenários haverão somente cerca de 85 mil unidades em circulação, no ano de 2030. Ao nível do consumo de combustíveis rodoviários, os veículos eléctricos poderão vir a reduzir o consumo de gasolina até 0,52% e até 0,27% no consumo de diesel, entre 2010 e 2030, contribuindo ligeiramente uma menor dependência energética externa. Ao nível do consumo eléctrico, o abastecimento das baterias dos veículos eléctricos representará até 0,5% do consumo eléctrico total, sendo que parte desse abastecimento será garantido através de centrais de ciclo combinado a gás natural. Apesar da maior utilização deste tipo de centrais térmicas para produção de energia, tanto para abastecimento das viaturas eléctricas, como para o consumo em geral, verifica-se que em 2030, o nível de emissões do sistema electroprodutor será cerca de 46% inferior aos níveis registados em 2010, prevendo-se que atinja as 0,163gCO2/kWh produzido pelo Sistema Electroprodutor Nacional devido à maior quota de produção das fontes de energia renovável, como o vento, a hídrica ou a solar.

A gestão do risco associado à negociação de energia eléctrica através de contratos bilaterais e mercado spot

Num mercado de electricidade competitivo onde existe um ambiente de incerteza, as empresas de geração adoptam estratégias que visam a maximização do lucro, e a minimização do risco. Neste contexto, é de extrema importância para desenvolver uma estratégia adequada de gestão de risco ter em conta as diferentes opções de negociação de energia num mercado liberalizado, de forma a suportar a tomada de decisões na gestão de risco. O presente trabalho apresenta um modelo que avalia a melhor estratégia de um produtor de energia eléctrica que comercializa num mercado competitivo, onde existem dois mercados possíveis para a transacção de energia: o mercado organizado (bolsa) e o mercado de contratos bilaterais. O produtor tenta maximizar seus lucros e minimizar os riscos correspondentes, seleccionando o melhor equilíbrio entre os dois mercados possíveis (bolsa e bilateral). O mercado de contratos bilaterais visa gerir adequadamente os riscos inerentes à operação de mercados no curto prazo (mercado organizado) e dar o vendedor / comprador uma capacidade real de escolher o fornecedor com que quer negociar. O modelo apresentado neste trabalho faz uma caracterização explícita do risco no que diz respeito ao agente de mercado na questão da sua atitude face ao risco, medido pelo Value at Risk (VaR), descrito neste trabalho por Lucro-em-Risco (PAR). O preço e os factores de risco de volume são caracterizados por um valor médio e um desvio padrão, e são modelizados por distribuições normais. Os resultados numéricos são obtidos utilizando a simulação de Monte Carlo implementado em Matlab, e que é aplicado a um produtor que mantém uma carteira diversificada de tecnologias de geração, para um horizonte temporal de um ano. Esta dissertação está organizada da seguinte forma: o capítulo 1, 2 e 3 descrevem o estado-da-arte relacionado com a gestão de risco na comercialização de energia eléctrica. O capítulo 4 descreve o modelo desenvolvido e implementado, onde é também apresentado um estudo de caso com uma aplicação do modelo para avaliar o risco de negociação de um produtor. No capítulo 5 são apresentadas as principais conclusões.