Mechanical Behavior of the Lamellar Structure in Semi-Crystalline Polymers

We have employed molecular dynamics simulations to study the behavior of virtual polymeric materials under an applied uniaxial tensile load. Through computer simulations, one can obtain experimentally inaccessible information about phenomena taking place at the molecular and microscopic levels. Not only can the global material response be monitored and characterized along time, but the response of macromolecular chains can be followed independently if desired. The computer-generated materials were created by emulating the step-wise polymerization, resulting in self-avoiding chains in 3D with controlled degree of orientation along a certain axis. These materials represent a simplified model of the lamellar structure of semi-crystalline polymers,being comprised of an amorphous region surrounded by two crystalline lamellar regions. For the simulations, a series of materials were created, varying i) the lamella thickness, ii) the amorphous region thickness, iii) the preferential chain orientation, and iv) the degree of packing of the amorphous region. Simulation results indicate that the lamella thickness has the strongest influence on the mechanical properties of the lamella-amorphous structure, which is in agreement with experimental data. The other morphological parameters also affect the mechanical response, but to a smaller degree. This research follows previous simulation work on the crack formation and propagation phenomena, deformation mechanisms at the nanoscale, and the influence of the loading conditions on the material response. Computer simulations can improve the fundamental understanding about the phenomena responsible for the behavior of polymeric materials, and will eventually lead to the design of knowledge-based materials with improved properties.

Comparative analysis between statistical and artificial intelligence models in business failure prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Survival Analysis Employed in Predicting Corporate Failure: A Forecasting Model Proposal

In face of the current economic and financial environment, predicting corporate bankruptcy is arguably a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors, creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. Within the strand of literature focused on bankruptcy forecasting we can find diverse types of research employing a wide variety of techniques, but only a few researchers have used survival analysis for the examination of this issue. We propose a model for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy based on survival analysis, a technique which stands on its own merits. In this research, the hazard rate is the probability of ‘‘bankruptcy’’ as of time t, conditional upon having survived until time t. Many hazard models are applied in a context where the running of time naturally affects the hazard rate. The model employed in this paper uses the time of survival or the hazard risk as dependent variable, considering the unsuccessful companies as censured observations.

Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.