Survival Analysis Employed in Predicting Corporate Failure: A Forecasting Model Proposal

In face of the current economic and financial environment, predicting corporate bankruptcy is arguably a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors, creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. Within the strand of literature focused on bankruptcy forecasting we can find diverse types of research employing a wide variety of techniques, but only a few researchers have used survival analysis for the examination of this issue. We propose a model for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy based on survival analysis, a technique which stands on its own merits. In this research, the hazard rate is the probability of ‘‘bankruptcy’’ as of time t, conditional upon having survived until time t. Many hazard models are applied in a context where the running of time naturally affects the hazard rate. The model employed in this paper uses the time of survival or the hazard risk as dependent variable, considering the unsuccessful companies as censured observations.

The Influence of Accounting Information in the Re-Election of the Mayors in Portugal

The changes recommended by the New Public Management (NPM) in public accounting have given special attention and importance to the evaluation of mayor’s performance by citizens/voters. Thus, this study aims to assess the impact of accounting information on the re-election of Portuguese mayors. Taking the agency theory as a point of departure, we start from the following research question: Does the accounting information disclosed by the municipalities influence the re-election of Portuguese mayors? The research methodology used in this study is the quantitative type, through which a multivariate analysis of data was performed on 308 Portuguese municipalities, in the period 2005-2008, based on the election results of 2009. The results from the binary logistic regression show that some indicators of accounting nature have impact on the re-election of mayors in Portugal, namely, the components of financial accounting and municipal revenues.

25 de Abril para sempre? "Fascismo" nunca mais?

Nem está garantido que o “25 de Abril seja para sempre”. O mais certo é que não esteja. Nem está assegurado, qual verdade ontológica, que não haverá mais “fascismo” ou um outro “Estado Novo de inspiração fascista”, como alguns preferem descrever o período histórico vivido em Portugal entre 1933 (com raízes em 1928 após eleição de Óscar Carmona) e o 25 de Abril de 1974. O mais certo é que surjam novos tipos de “fascismo”. § Abstract: Neither is guaranteed that the "April 25th is forever." Most likely it is not. Neither is assured, what ontological truth, there will be no more "fascism" or another "New State of fascist inspiration," as some prefer to describe the historical period lived in Portugal between 1933 (with roots in 1928 after Óscar Carmona Election) and April 25, 1974. most likely there are new types of "fascism."

Comissão de Fiscalização e Disciplina do Sindicato Nacional do Ensino Superior reeleita

Processo de reeleição e identificação dos professores e investigadores do Sindicato Nacional do Ensino Superior que foram reeleitos para a Comissão de Fiscalização do Sindicato Nacional do Ensino Superior. § Re-election process and identification of teachers and researchers of the National Union of Higher Education that were re-elected to the Audit Committee of the National Union of Higher Education.

Cuidado com bicos-de-pé em face da Constituição

Nas palavras de Canotilho/Moreira, o regime político português é um Estado-de-partidos, os quais foram elevados à Constituição formal. São expressão da vontade popular (10º/2). São um direito fundamental constitucional. Participar ou fundar um partido é um direito, liberdade e garantia (art. 51º). Participam nos órgãos com base no sufrágio universal e directo. Mas são mediadores pois o poder político é do Povo (art. 108º)! São os partidos que formam a vontade de órgãos como o Governo! Os partidos têm direito a apresentar candidatos aos órgãos; e têm o direito de obter mandatos de acordo com os resultados eleitorais e o método proporcional (art. 113º/5 e 152º/1)… E às Forças Armadas incumbe a defesa militar da República: art. 275º/1 CRP… § In the words of Canotilho / Moreira, the Portuguese political system is a state-parties, which were elevated to the formal Constitution. They are an expression of popular will (10/2). Is a constitutional fundamental right. Participate or found a party is a right, freedom and guarantee (art. 51). Participate in organs based on direct and universal suffrage. But are mediators because political power is the people (art. 108)! Are the parties that form the will of organs such as the Government! The parties are entitled to nominate candidates to the organs; and have the right to obtain mandates in accordance with the election results and the proportional method (Article 113/5 and 152/1.) ... and the Armed Forces have the responsibility for the military defense of the Republic: art. 275/1 CRP ...