Survival Analysis Employed in Predicting Corporate Failure: A Forecasting Model Proposal

In face of the current economic and financial environment, predicting corporate bankruptcy is arguably a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors, creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. Within the strand of literature focused on bankruptcy forecasting we can find diverse types of research employing a wide variety of techniques, but only a few researchers have used survival analysis for the examination of this issue. We propose a model for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy based on survival analysis, a technique which stands on its own merits. In this research, the hazard rate is the probability of ‘‘bankruptcy’’ as of time t, conditional upon having survived until time t. Many hazard models are applied in a context where the running of time naturally affects the hazard rate. The model employed in this paper uses the time of survival or the hazard risk as dependent variable, considering the unsuccessful companies as censured observations.

Relationships between NPM, the use of PM practices and the organizational performance: empirical evidence from government agencies

Purpose – this paper has two main purposes: (1)explore if government agencies more oriented to NPM postulates are more willing to use PM practices and to improve their performance; and (2) investigate whether the fit between the use of PM practices and the organizationa performance is dependent upon from the capacity of agencies to adapt its structures to changes introduced by NPM reforms. Design/methodology/approach - this paper is based on the survey method and provides empirical evidence from Portuguese government agencies.Findings (mandatory) - Our findings suggest that government agencies that made structural arrangements under the NPM reforms are more willing to use PM practices and will perform better than other agencies. In addition, this paper show that therelationship between the use of PM practices and the organizational performance is dependent upon from the agencies capacity to adopt new structural arrangements under the NPM reforms.Practical implications – this paper has three main contributions: (1) contribute to knowledge about the relationship between the introduction of NPM changes in the use of PM practices; (2) contribute to clarify whether agencies more oriented to NPM postulates are improving performance; and (3) help to clarify the way the organizations should adapt their structures for to be more effective in the use of PM practices. Originality/value - The quantitative empirical research, based on the unique survey applied to Portuguese government agencies on this field, allow us to add to prior research mainly based on case studies and oriented to local governments (Budding, 2004).