Survival Analysis Employed in Predicting Corporate Failure: A Forecasting Model Proposal

In face of the current economic and financial environment, predicting corporate bankruptcy is arguably a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors, creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. Within the strand of literature focused on bankruptcy forecasting we can find diverse types of research employing a wide variety of techniques, but only a few researchers have used survival analysis for the examination of this issue. We propose a model for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy based on survival analysis, a technique which stands on its own merits. In this research, the hazard rate is the probability of ‘‘bankruptcy’’ as of time t, conditional upon having survived until time t. Many hazard models are applied in a context where the running of time naturally affects the hazard rate. The model employed in this paper uses the time of survival or the hazard risk as dependent variable, considering the unsuccessful companies as censured observations.

Integrating environmental and economic life cycle analysis in product development: a material selection case study

Purpose Achieving sustainability by rethinking products, services and strategies is an enormous challenge currently laid upon the economic sector, in which materials selection plays a critical role. In this context, the present work describes an environmental and economic life cycle analysis of a structural product, comparing two possible material alternatives. The product chosen is a storage tank, presently manufactured in stainless steel (SST) or in a glass fibre reinforced polymer composite (CST). The overall goal of the study is to identify environmental and economic strong and weak points related to the life cycle of the two material alternatives. The consequential win-win or trade-off situations will be identified via a Life Cycle Assessment/Life Cycle Costing (LCA/LCC) integrated model. Methods The LCA/LCC integrated model used consists in applying the LCA methodology to the product system, incorporating, in parallel, its results into the LCC study, namely those of the Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA). Results In both the SST and CST systems the most significant life cycle phase is the raw materials production, in which the most significant environmental burdens correspond to the Fossil fuels and Respiratory inorganics categories. The LCA/LCC integrated analysis shows that the CST has globally a preferable environmental and economic profile, as its impacts are lower than those of the SST in all life cycle stages. Both the internal and external costs are lower, the former resulting mainly from the composite material being significantly less expensive than stainless steel. This therefore represents a full win-win situation. As a consequence, the study clearly indicates that using a thermoset composite material to manufacture storage tanks is environmentally and economically desirable. However, it was also evident that the environmental performance of the CST could be improved by altering its End-of-Life stage. Conclusions The results of the present work provide enlightening insights into the synergies between the environmental and the economic performance of a structural product made with alternative materials. Further, they provide conclusive evidence to support the integration of environmental and economic life cycle analysis in the product development processes of a manufacturing company, or in some cases even in its procurement practices.

Travel preferences of the residents of Guimarães: a revised model of push and pull motives

The historic center of the Portuguese city of Guimarães is a world heritage site (UNESCO) since 2001, having hosted the European Capital of Culture (ECOC) in 2012. In this sense, Guimarães has made a major effort in promoting tourism, positioning itself as an urban and cultural tourism destination. The present paper has two objectives. The first, to examine if an existing push and pull motivation model finds statistical support with regard to the population of the municipality of Guimarães, a cultural tourism destination. The second, to study the role that important socio-demographic variables, such as gender, age, and education, play in determining travel motivations of residents from this municipality. Insight on tourism motivation may be an important policy tool for tourism planners and managers in the development of products and marketing strategies. The empirical analysis is undertaken based on questionnaires administered in 2012 to residents of Guimarães. The present study shows that gender, age and education make a difference with regard to travel motivations.

Estimating Local Part Thickness in Midplane Meshes for Finite Element Analysis

Within the development of motor vehicles, crash safety (e.g. occupant protection, pedestrian protection, low speed damageability), is one of the most important attributes. In order to be able to fulfill the increased requirements in the framework of shorter cycle times and rising pressure to reduce costs, car manufacturers keep intensifying the use of virtual development tools such as those in the domain of Computer Aided Engineering (CAE). For crash simulations, the explicit finite element method (FEM) is applied. The accuracy of the simulation process is highly dependent on the accuracy of the simulation model, including the midplane mesh. One of the roughest approximations typically made is the actual part thickness which, in reality, can vary locally. However, almost always a constant thickness value is defined throughout the entire part due to complexity reasons. On the other hand, for precise fracture analysis within FEM, the correct thickness consideration is one key enabler. Thus, availability of per element thickness information, which does not exist explicitly in the FEM model, can significantly contribute to an improved crash simulation quality, especially regarding fracture prediction. Even though the thickness is not explicitly available from the FEM model, it can be inferred from the original CAD geometric model through geometric calculations. This paper proposes and compares two thickness estimation algorithms based on ray tracing and nearest neighbour 3D range searches. A systematic quantitative analysis of the accuracy of both algorithms is presented, as well as a thorough identification of particular geometric arrangements under which their accuracy can be compared. These results enable the identification of each technique’s weaknesses and hint towards a new, integrated, approach to the problem that linearly combines the estimates produced by each algorithm.

GUI Inspection from Source Code Analysis

Graphical user interfaces (GUIs) are critical components of todays software. Given their increased relevance, correctness and usability of GUIs are becoming essential. This paper describes the latest results in the development of our tool to reverse engineer the GUI layer of interactive computing systems. We use static analysis techniques to generate models of the user interface behaviour from source code. Models help in graphical user interface inspection by allowing designers to concentrate on its more important aspects. One particularly type of model that the tool is able to generate is state machines. The paper shows how graph theory can be useful when applied to these models. A number of metrics and algorithms are used in the analysis of aspects of the user interface's quality. The ultimate goal of the tool is to enable analysis of interactive system through GUIs source code inspection.

Slicing for architectural analysis

Current software development often relies on non-trivial coordination logic for combining autonomous services, eventually running on different platforms. As a rule, however, such a coordination layer is strongly woven within the application at source code level. Therefore, its precise identification becomes a major methodological (and technical) problem and a challenge to any program understanding or refactoring process. The approach introduced in this paper resorts to slicing techniques to extract coordination data from source code. Such data are captured in a specific dependency graph structure from which a coordination model can be recovered either in the form of an Orc specification or as a collection of code fragments corresponding to the identification of typical coordination patterns in the system. Tool support is also discussed

The role of coordination analysis in software integration projects

What sort of component coordination strategies emerge in a software integration process? How can such strategies be discovered and further analysed? How close are they to the coordination component of the envisaged architectural model which was supposed to guide the integration process? This paper introduces a framework in which such questions can be discussed and illustrates its use by describing part of a real case-study. The approach is based on a methodology which enables semi-automatic discovery of coordination patterns from source code, combining generalized slicing techniques and graph manipulation

Analysis of computing open source systems

Graphical user interfaces (GUIs) are critical components of today's open source software. Given their increased relevance, the correctness and usability of GUIs are becoming essential. This paper describes the latest results in the development of our tool to reverse engineer the GUI layer of interactive computing open source systems. We use static analysis techniques to generate models of the user interface behavior from source code. Models help in graphical user interface inspection by allowing designers to concentrate on its more important aspects. One particular type of model that the tool is able to generate is state machines. The paper shows how graph theory can be useful when applied to these models. A number of metrics and algorithms are used in the analysis of aspects of the user interface's quality. The ultimate goal of the tool is to enable analysis of interactive system through GUIs source code inspection.

A model for the evaluation of data quality in health unit website

This article presents a research work, the goal of which was to achieve a model for the evaluation of data quality in institutional websites of health units in a broad and balanced way. We have carried out a literature review of the available approaches for the evaluation of website content quality, in order to identify the most recurrent dimensions and the attributes, and we have also carried out a Delphi method process with experts in order to reach an adequate set of attributes and their respective weights for the measurement of content quality. The results obtained revealed a high level of consensus among the experts who participated in the Delphi process. On the other hand, the different statistical analysis and techniques implemented are robust and attach confidence to our results and consequent model obtained.

Finantial risk analysis of portuguese textile and tourism companies

Textile and tourism sectors are two important industries in the Portuguese economy. However, its high exposure to both internal and international economic volatility make the companies operating in these economic sectors particularly vulnerable to economic crises, such as the ones which have been impacting Portugal and the European Union. The objective of this paper is to evaluate and understand the impact of size and age on the financial health of textile and tourism companies, measured by economic indices. An empirical based model is proposed. Its implications are derived and tested on a sample of 4061 Portuguese companies from textile and tourism sectors, during the period 2005-2009. The findings suggest that age has a major impact on the risk of failure, rather than size. Whereas the effect of age is generally positive regarding the financial health of the company, the effect of size is less clear and ultimately depends on the age of the company.

Analysis of the return on preventive measures in musculoskeletal disorders through the benefitecost ratio: A case study in a hospital

Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) are among the most costly health problems that society is facing today. Prevention involves investments and it is important for organizations to make a cost ebenefit analysis of ergonomic projects. Return on prevention is a recent concern in the domain of occupational safety and health (OSH). There are many studies concerning the return on the prevention of WMSDs, in terms of the benefits for the organization in which the preventive measures are implemented. However, it is also important to perform an analysis of the impact of each measure on society (externalities). A model to perform a financial and economic costebenefit analysis related to OSH projects was developed and it was applied in the case of the prevention of WMSDs in a Portuguese hospital. An analysis of the accidents and corresponding costs has been made in six of the services of the hospital. Financial and an economic costebenefit analysis have been made and the benefitecost ratio (B/C) has been calculated. While the B/C financial ratio, considering only the benefits to the hospital, is around 2, the economic B/C ratio, taking into account all the external benefits that have been quantified, is higher than 14. Relevance to industry: Both the economic and the financial B/C ratio are important support tools for decision makers in public and private organizations, helping them to define which preventive measures should be implemented, taking into account the costs involved and the resulting quantified benefits, for the organization, for the workers and for the society.

Financial Risk Analysis of Portuguese Textile and Tourism Companies

Textile and tourism sectors are two important industries in the Portuguese economy. However, its high exposure to both internal and international economic volatility make the companies operating in these economic sectors particularly vulnerable to economic crises, such as the ones which have been impacting Portugal and the European Union. The objective of this paper is to evaluate and understand the impact of size and age on the financial health of textile and tourism companies, measured by economic indices. An empirical based model is proposed. Its implications are derived and tested on a sample of 4061 Portuguese companies from textile and tourism sectors, during the period 2005-2009. The findings suggest that age has a major impact on the risk of failure, rather than size. Whereas the effect of age is generally positive regarding the financial health of the company, the effect of size is less clear and ultimately depends on the age of the company.

Financial Risk Analysis of Portuguese Textile and Tourism Companies

Textile and tourism sectors are two important industries in the Portuguese economy. However, its high exposure to both internal and international economic volatility make the companies operating in these economic sectors particularly vulnerable to economic crises, such as the ones which have been impacting Portugal and the European Union. The objective of this paper is to evaluate and understand the impact of size and age on the financial health of textile and tourism companies, measured by economic indices. An empirical based model is proposed. Its implications are derived and tested on a sample of 4061 Portuguese companies from textile and tourism sectors, during the period 2005-2009. The findings suggest that age has a major impact on the risk of failure, rather than size. Whereas the effect of age is generally positive regarding the financial health of the company, the effect of size is less clear and ultimately depends on the age of the company.