Survival Analysis Employed in Predicting Corporate Failure: A Forecasting Model Proposal

In face of the current economic and financial environment, predicting corporate bankruptcy is arguably a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors, creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. Within the strand of literature focused on bankruptcy forecasting we can find diverse types of research employing a wide variety of techniques, but only a few researchers have used survival analysis for the examination of this issue. We propose a model for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy based on survival analysis, a technique which stands on its own merits. In this research, the hazard rate is the probability of ‘‘bankruptcy’’ as of time t, conditional upon having survived until time t. Many hazard models are applied in a context where the running of time naturally affects the hazard rate. The model employed in this paper uses the time of survival or the hazard risk as dependent variable, considering the unsuccessful companies as censured observations.

Cuidado com bicos-de-pé em face da Constituição

Nas palavras de Canotilho/Moreira, o regime político português é um Estado-de-partidos, os quais foram elevados à Constituição formal. São expressão da vontade popular (10º/2). São um direito fundamental constitucional. Participar ou fundar um partido é um direito, liberdade e garantia (art. 51º). Participam nos órgãos com base no sufrágio universal e directo. Mas são mediadores pois o poder político é do Povo (art. 108º)! São os partidos que formam a vontade de órgãos como o Governo! Os partidos têm direito a apresentar candidatos aos órgãos; e têm o direito de obter mandatos de acordo com os resultados eleitorais e o método proporcional (art. 113º/5 e 152º/1)… E às Forças Armadas incumbe a defesa militar da República: art. 275º/1 CRP… § In the words of Canotilho / Moreira, the Portuguese political system is a state-parties, which were elevated to the formal Constitution. They are an expression of popular will (10/2). Is a constitutional fundamental right. Participate or found a party is a right, freedom and guarantee (art. 51). Participate in organs based on direct and universal suffrage. But are mediators because political power is the people (art. 108)! Are the parties that form the will of organs such as the Government! The parties are entitled to nominate candidates to the organs; and have the right to obtain mandates in accordance with the election results and the proportional method (Article 113/5 and 152/1.) ... and the Armed Forces have the responsibility for the military defense of the Republic: art. 275/1 CRP ...