Improving sample representativeness in environmental studies: a major component for the uncertainty budget

For environmental quality assessment, INAA has been applied for determining chemical elements in small (200 mg) and large (200 g) samples of leaves from 200 trees. By applying the Ingamells` constant, the expected percent standard deviation was estimated in 0.9-2.2% for 200 mg samples. Otherwise, for composite samples (200 g), expected standard deviation varied from 0.5 to 10% in spite of analytical uncertainties ranging from 2 to 30%. Results thereby suggested the expression of the degree of representativeness as a source of uncertainty, contributing for increasing of the reliability of environmental studies mainly in the case of composite samples.

Multicriteria analysis in decision making under information uncertainty

This paper presents results of research related to multicriteria decision making under information uncertainty. The Bell-man-Zadeh approach to decision making in a fuzzy environment is utilized for analyzing multicriteria optimization models (< X, M > models) under deterministic information. Its application conforms to the principle of guaranteed result and provides constructive lines in obtaining harmonious solutions on the basis of analyzing associated maxmin problems. This circumstance permits one to generalize the classic approach to considering the uncertainty of quantitative information (based on constructing and analyzing payoff matrices reflecting effects which can be obtained for different combinations of solution alternatives and the so-called states of nature) in monocriteria decision making to multicriteria problems. Considering that the uncertainty of information can produce considerable decision uncertainty regions, the resolving capacity of this generalization does not always permit one to obtain unique solutions. Taking this into account, a proposed general scheme of multicriteria decision making under information uncertainty also includes the construction and analysis of the so-called < X, R > models (which contain fuzzy preference relations as criteria of optimality) as a means for the subsequent contraction of the decision uncertainty regions. The paper results are of a universal character and are illustrated by a simple example. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimal irrigation depth for bean crops considering water constraints and farmer`s risk aversion level

Nowadays, the rising competition for the use of water and environmental resources with consequent restrictions for farmers should change the paradigm in terms of irrigation concepts, or rather, in order to attain economical efficiency other than to supply water requirement for the crop. Therefore, taking into account the social and economical role of bean activity in Brazil, as well as the risk inherent to crop due to its high sensibility to both deficit and excessive water, the optimization methods regarding to irrigation management have become more interesting and essential. This study intends to present a way to determine the optimal water supply, considering different combinations between desired bean yield and level of risk, bringing as a result a graph with the former associated with the latter, depending on different water depths.

Overshadowing in conditioned taste aversion or in conditioned emotional response after neonatal ventral hippocampal lesions in rats

The neonatal hippocampus lesion thought to model schizophrenia should show the same modifications in behavioural tests as other models, especially pharmacological models. namely decreased latent inhibition, blocking and overshadowing. The present study is set out to evaluate overshadowing in order to complement our previous studies, which had tested latent inhibition. ""Overshadowing"" refers to the decreased conditioning that occurs when the to-be-conditioned stimulus is combined with another stimulus at the conditioning stage. We used the same two Pavlovian conditioning paradigms as in our previous works, namely conditioned taste aversion (CTA) and conditioned emotional response (CER). A sweet taste overshadowed a salty conditioned stimulus, and a tone overshadowed a flashing light. Totally different stimuli were used to counter possible sensory biases. The protocols were validated with two groups of Sprague Dawley rats. The same two protocols were then applied to a cohort of rats whose ventral hippocampus had been destroyed when they were 7 days old. Only rats with extended ventral hippocampus lesions were included. The overall effect of Pavlovian conditioning was attenuated, significantly so in the conditioned emotional response paradigm, but overshadowing appeared not to be modified in either the conditioned emotional response or the conditioned taste aversion paradigm. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Food aversion: A critical balance between allergen-specific IgE levels and taste preference

Animals sensitized to allergens change their feeding behavior and avoid drinking the otherwise preferred sweetened solutions containing the allergens. This phenomenon, known as food aversion, appears to be mediated by allergen-specific IgE antibodies. Here we investigated food aversion in BALB/c and C57BL/6 mice, which differ in their allergic responses to the allergen ovalbumin as well as in their preference for sweet taste. BALB/c mice present higher levels of IgE and a natural lower preference for sweet flavors when compared to C57BL/6 mice. Specifically, we studied a conflicting situation in which animals simultaneously experienced the aversive contact with the allergen and the attractive sweet taste of increasing concentrations of sucrose. We found that BALB/c mice were more prone to develop food aversion than C57BL/6 mice and that this aversive behavior could be abolished in both strains by increasing the palatability of the solution containing the allergen. In both strains food aversion was positively correlated with the levels of allergen-specific IgE antibodies and inversely correlated with their preference for sucrose sweetened solutions. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pharmacological Manipulation of Immune-Induced Food Aversion in Rats

Background: Mice allergic to ovalbumin (OVA) avoid drinking a solution containing this antigen. This was interpreted as related to IgE-dependent mast cell degranulation and sensory C fiber activation. Methods: We employed pharmacological manipulation to further investigate the mediators involved in immune-induced food aversion. Results: While nonimmunized rats preferred a sweetened OVA solution, immunized rats avoided it. We also employed a paradigm in which rats are conditioned to drink water for two 10-min sessions a day. Tolerant rats presented lower IgE titers, and this manipulation abrogated food aversion. Dexamethasone (1.0 mg/kg) prevented the aversion of OVA-immunized rats to the antigen-containing solution. Combined blockade of H(1) and 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT)(2) receptors by promethazine (3.0 mg/kg) plus methysergide (5.0 mg/kg) was unable to alter food aversion. Blockade of 5-HT(3) receptors by ondansetron (1.0 mg/kg) caused a twofold increase in the ingestion of the sweetened OVA solution by immunized rats, suggesting the involvement of 5-HT(3) receptors in food aversion. Finally, we showed that dexamethasone or promethazine plus methysergide, but not ondansetron, effectively prevented the IgE-dependent mast-cell-degranulation-induced increase in vascular permeability in rats. Conclusion: We suggest that regardless of whether or not they cause edema, IgE-mediated mast cell degranulation and consequent 5-HT(3) signaling are involved in the process that triggers avoidance to the source of the allergen in allergic rats. Copyright (C) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel

Quantum States Allowing Minimum Uncertainty Product of phi and L(z)

We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for states to have an arbitrarily small uncertainty product of the azimuthal angle phi and its canonical moment L(z). We illustrate our results with analytical examples.

Dispersion and uncertainty in multislit matter wave diffraction

We show that single and multislit experiments involving matter waves may be constructed to assess dispersively generated correlations between the position and momentum of a single free particle. These correlations give rise to position dependent phases which develop dynamically as a result of dispersion and may play an important role in the interference patterns. To the extent that initial transverse coherence is preserved throughout the proposed diffraction setup, such interference patterns are noticeably different from those of a classical dispersion free wave. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Estímulo discriminativo de extinção produzido por respostas de observação em pombos

Pombos privados de comida foram expostos a tentativas que podiam terminar com ou sem a apresentação de comida independentemente de qualquer resposta. Durante uma tentativa, bicadas podiam mudar a cor do disco de resposta de branco para verde (S+) ou vermelho (S-) a depender do acionamento (ou não) do comedouro. Em linha de base, bicadas produziam ambas as cores em intervalos médios variáveis de 15 s. Em duas condições experimentais distintas, tandem VI DRH foi empregado na produção, ora de S+, ora de S-. Resultados mostraram que o esquema tandem levou a uma diminuição geral na freqüência de estímulos discriminativos produzidos, marcadamente na de S+, mas não na de S-. Esses dados fornecem suporte para o modelo de reforçamento condicionado baseado na redução da incerteza.

Encefalite no litoral paulista: a emergência da epidemia e a reação da mídia impressa

No litoral sul do estado de São Paulo, ocorreu uma epidemia de encefalite pelo arbovírus Rocio de 1975 a 1978. As altas taxas de morbidade e mortalidade causaram impacto social. Neste trabalho, o objetivo foi apresentar um estudo sobre como a mídia impressa relatou os acontecimentos sociais relacionados ao surgimento da epidemia no primeiro semestre de 1975. Reportagens sobre a epidemia no litoral sul foram obtidas do banco de dados dos jornais A Tribuna, Folha de S.Paulo e Jornal da Tarde. Foram analisadas as notícias até o mês de julho de 1975, fase inicial e de maior impacto da epidemia. Com a identificação de casos de encefalite, de causa desconhecida, a Secretaria de Estado da Saúde desaconselhou a ida de turistas para o litoral, utilizando a mídia como veículo de divulgação. Diante das notícias, ocorreu a fuga dos turistas e, consequentemente, a crise do comércio. Observou-se a revolta dos comerciantes, que geraram embates contra a mídia, no que tange à forma de divulgação da epidemia. Alguns prefeitos alegaram inveracidade de notícias publicadas. A proibição feita pelas autoridades sanitárias foi relatada pela mídia de forma abrangente, englobando sujeitos envolvidos nesse discurso. Assim, foram reveladas ao público as tensões geradas entre os detentores do conhecimento científico e o poder econômico local. Os jornais realizaram cobertura abrangente, abordando vários temas, entretanto disseminaram incertezas e fizeram uso de imagens sensacionalistas, além de desarticular acontecimentos biológicos e sociais. Os temas chegaram aos leitores de forma fragmentada e com sentidos sociais comprometidos.

Aversão alimentar adquirida e qualidade de vida em mulheres com neoplasia mamária

OBJETIVO: Avaliar o comportamento alimentar de mulheres com câncer de mama submetidas à quimioterapia, e sua relação com a qualidade de vida destas pacientes. MÉTODOS: A partir de um ensaio clínico do tipo antes e depois, selecionou-se 25 mulheres do Hospital AC Camargo (São Paulo, Brasil) durante o período de outubro de 2005 a abril de 2006. As pacientes inclusas no estudo apresentavam diagnóstico de câncer de mama, com estadiamento I e II e indicação de tratamento quimioterápico adjuvante. Nos momentos T0 (antes) e T1 (após o tratamento quimioterápico), o comportamento alimentar (consumo e aversão alimentar) foi avaliado por três recordatórios 24 horas e um questionário Food Action, respectivamente. A qualidade de vida foi monitorada por meio do questionário Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Breast. RESULTADOS: Após o tratamento quimioterápico (T1), o consumo de macro e micronutrientes não apresentou alterações significantes, mas o consumo de frutas e sucos aumentou (p=0,03). Perfil inverso foi observado em relação à preferência por café preto (p=0,01) e pelo grupo de bebidas (p<0,001). Alimentos gordurosos (38%), laticínios (23%), café preto (15%), chá (15%), chocolate (7%) e carne vermelha (7%) foram os principais alimentos associados ao desconforto das pacientes. Análises de qualidade de vida mostraram que o tratamento quimioterápico promoveu significante redução no bem estar físico (p<0,01). Após o mesmo, algumas variáveis do comportamento alimentar foram significantemente correlacionadas com os parâmetros de qualidade de vida. CONCLUSÃO: A relação bilateral entre comportamento alimentar e qualidade de vida foi modificada negativamente pelo tratamento quimioterápico.

Risk optimization of a steel frame communications tower subject to tornado winds

The structural engineering community in Brazil faces new challenges with the recent occurrence of high intensity tornados. Satellite surveillance data shows that the area covering the south-east of Brazil, Uruguay and some of Argentina is one of the world most tornado-prone areas, second only to the infamous tornado alley in central United States. The design of structures subject to tornado winds is a typical example of decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Structural design involves finding a good balance between the competing goals of safety and economy. This paper presents a methodology to find the optimum balance between these goals in the presence of uncertainty. In this paper, reliability-based risk optimization is used to find the optimal safety coefficient that minimizes the total expected cost of a steel frame communications tower, subject to extreme storm and tornado wind loads. The technique is not new, but it is applied to a practical problem of increasing interest to Brazilian structural engineers. The problem is formulated in the partial safety factor format used in current design codes, with all additional partial factor introduced to serve as optimization variable. The expected cost of failure (or risk) is defined as the product of a. limit state exceedance probability by a limit state exceedance cost. These costs include costs of repairing, rebuilding, and paying compensation for injury and loss of life. The total expected failure cost is the sum of individual expected costs over all failure modes. The steel frame communications, tower subject of this study has become very common in Brazil due to increasing mobile phone coverage. The study shows that optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the cost (or consequences) of failure. Since failure consequences depend oil actual tower location, it turn,,; out that different optimum designs should be used in different locations. Failure consequences are also different for the different parties involved in the design, construction and operation of the tower. Hence, it is important that risk is well understood by the parties involved, so that proper contracts call be made. The investigation shows that when non-structural terms dominate design costs (e.g, in residential or office buildings) it is not too costly to over-design; this observation is in agreement with the observed practice for non-optimized structural systems. In this situation, is much easier to loose money by under-design. When by under-design. When structural material cost is a significant part of design cost (e.g. concrete dam or bridge), one is likely to lose significantmoney by over-design. In this situation, a cost-risk-benefit optimization analysis is highly recommended. Finally, the study also shows that under time-varying loads like tornados, the optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the selected design life.

Dynamical models for computer viruses propagation

Nowadays, digital computer systems and networks are the main engineering tools, being used in planning, design, operation, and control of all sizes of building, transportation, machinery, business, and life maintaining devices. Consequently, computer viruses became one of the most important sources of uncertainty, contributing to decrease the reliability of vital activities. A lot of antivirus programs have been developed, but they are limited to detecting and removing infections, based on previous knowledge of the virus code. In spite of having good adaptation capability, these programs work just as vaccines against diseases and are not able to prevent new infections based on the network state. Here, a trial on modeling computer viruses propagation dynamics relates it to other notable events occurring in the network permitting to establish preventive policies in the network management. Data from three different viruses are collected in the Internet and two different identification techniques, autoregressive and Fourier analyses, are applied showing that it is possible to forecast the dynamics of a new virus propagation by using the data collected from other viruses that formerly infected the network. Copyright (c) 2008 J. R. C. Piqueira and F. B. Cesar. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

The role of crystalline anisotropy in mechanical property extractions through Berkovich indentation

This work uses crystal plasticity finite element simulations to elucidate the role of elastoplastic anisotropy in instrumented indentation P-h(s) curve measurements in face-centered Cubic (fcc) crystals. It is shown that although the experimental fluctuations in the loading stage of the P-h(s) curves can be attributed to anisotropy, the variability in the unloading stage of the experiments Is much greater than that resulting from anisotropy alone. Moreover, it is found that the conventional procedure used to evaluate the contact variables ruling the unloading P-h(s) curve introduces all uncertainty that approximates to the more fundamental influence of anisotropy. In view of these results, a robust procedure is proposed that uses contact area measurements in addition to the P-h(s) curves to extract homogenized J(2)-Plasticity-equivalent mechanical properties from single crystals.

Como implementar uma diretriz - da teoria à prática: exemplo da profilaxia para Tromboembolismo Venoso

The objective of this manuscript is to discuss the existing barriers for the dissemination of medical guidelines, and to present strategies that facilitate the adaptation of the recommendations into clinical practice. The literature shows that it usually takes several years until new scientific evidence is adopted in current practice, even when there is obvious impact in patients' morbidity and mortality. There are some examples where more than thirty years have elapsed since the first case reports about the use of a effective therapy were published until its utilization became routine. That is the case of fibrinolysis for the treatment of acute myocardial infarction. Some of the main barriers for the implementation of new recommendations are: the lack of knowledge of a new guideline, personal resistance to changes, uncertainty about the efficacy of the proposed recommendation, fear of potential side-effects, difficulties in remembering the recommendations, inexistence of institutional policies reinforcing the recommendation and even economical restrains. In order to overcome these barriers a strategy that involves a program with multiple tools is always the best. That must include the implementation of easy-to-use algorithms, continuous medical education materials and lectures, electronic or paper alerts, tools to facilitate evaluation and prescription, and periodic audits to show results to the practitioners involved in the process. It is also fundamental that the medical societies involved with the specific medical issue support the program for its scientific and ethical soundness. The creation of multidisciplinary committees in each institution and the inclusion of opinion leaders that have pro-active and lasting attitudes are the key-points for the program's success. In this manuscript we use as an example the implementation of a guideline for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis, but the concepts described here can be easily applied to any other guideline. Therefore, these concepts could be very useful for institutions and services that aim at quality improvement of patient care. Changes in current medical practice recommended by guidelines may take some time. However, if there is a broader participation of opinion leaders and the use of several tools listed here, they surely have a greater probability of reaching the main objectives: improvement in provided medical care and patient safety.