Multivariate measurement error models based on scale mixtures of the skew-normal distribution

Scale mixtures of the skew-normal (SMSN) distribution is a class of asymmetric thick-tailed distributions that includes the skew-normal (SN) distribution as a special case. The main advantage of these classes of distributions is that they are easy to simulate and have a nice hierarchical representation facilitating easy implementation of the expectation-maximization algorithm for the maximum-likelihood estimation. In this paper, we assume an SMSN distribution for the unobserved value of the covariates and a symmetric scale mixtures of the normal distribution for the error term of the model. This provides a robust alternative to parameter estimation in multivariate measurement error models. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the SN, skew-t, skew-slash and skew-contaminated normal distributions. The results and methods are applied to a real data set.

A robust Bayesian approach to null intercept measurement error model with application to dental data

Measurement error models often arise in epidemiological and clinical research. Usually, in this set up it is assumed that the latent variable has a normal distribution. However, the normality assumption may not be always correct. Skew-normal/independent distribution is a class of asymmetric thick-tailed distributions which includes the Skew-normal distribution as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of skew-normal/independent distribution as a robust alternative to null intercept measurement error model under a Bayesian paradigm. We assume that the random errors and the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows jointly a skew-normal/independent distribution, providing an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of symmetric normal distribution in this type of model. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the skew-normal distribution, the skew-t distributions, the skew-slash distributions and the skew contaminated normal distributions. The methods developed is illustrated using a real data set from a dental clinical trial. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An opinion dynamics model for the diffusion of innovations

We study the dynamics of the adoption of new products by agents with continuous opinions and discrete actions (CODA). The model is such that the refusal in adopting a new idea or product is increasingly weighted by neighbor agents as evidence against the product. Under these rules, we study the distribution of adoption times and the final proportion of adopters in the population. We compare the cases where initial adopters are clustered to the case where they are randomly scattered around the social network and investigate small world effects on the final proportion of adopters. The model predicts a fat tailed distribution for late adopters which is verified by empirical data. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probing the Galactic thick disc vertical properties and interfaces

Aims. This work investigates the properties (metallicity and kinematics) and interfaces of the Galactic thick disc as a function of height above the Galactic plane. The main aim is to study the thick disc in a place where it is the main component of the sample. Methods. We take advantage of former astrometric work in two fields of several square degrees in which accurate proper motions were measured down to V-magnitudes of 18.5 in two directions, one near the north galactic pole and the other at a galactic latitude of 46 degrees and galactic longitude near 0 degrees. Spectroscopic observations have been acquired in these two fields for a total of about 400 stars down to magnitude 18.0, at spectral resolutions of 3.5 to 6.25 angstrom. The spectra have been analysed with the code ETOILE, comparing the target stellar spectra with a grid of 1400 reference stellar spectra. This comparison allowed us to derive the parameters effective temperature, gravity, [Fe/H] and absolute magnitude for each target star. Results. The Metallicity Distribution Function (MDF) of the thin-thick-disc-halo system is derived for several height intervals between 0 and 5 kpc above the Galactic plane. The MDFs show a decrease of the ratio of the thin to thick disc stars between the first and second kilo-parsec. This is consistent with the classical modelling of the vertical density profile of the disc with 2 populations with different scale heights. A vertical metallicity gradient, partial derivative[Fe/H]/partial derivative z = -0.068 +/- 0.009 dex kpc(-1), is observed in the thick disc. It is discussed in terms of scenarios of formation of the thick disc.

Chemical similarities between Galactic bulge and local thick disk red giants: O, Na, Mg, Al, Si, Ca, and Ti

Context. The formation and evolution of the Galactic bulge and its relationship with the other Galactic populations is still poorly understood. Aims. To establish the chemical differences and similarities between the bulge and other stellar populations, we performed an elemental abundance analysis of alpha- (O, Mg, Si, Ca, and Ti) and Z-odd (Na and Al) elements of red giant stars in the bulge as well as of local thin disk, thick disk and halo giants. Methods. We use high-resolution optical spectra of 25 bulge giants in Baade's window and 55 comparison giants (4 halo, 29 thin disk and 22 thick disk giants) in the solar neighborhood. All stars have similar stellar parameters but cover a broad range in metallicity (-1.5 < [Fe/H] < +0.5). A standard 1D local thermodynamic equilibrium analysis using both Kurucz and MARCS models yielded the abundances of O, Na, Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Ti and Fe. Our homogeneous and differential analysis of the Galactic stellar populations ensured that systematic errors were minimized. Results. We confirm the well-established differences for [alpha/Fe] at a given metallicity between the local thin and thick disks. For all the elements investigated, we find no chemical distinction between the bulge and the local thick disk, in agreement with our previous study of C, N and O but in contrast to other groups relying on literature values for nearby disk dwarf stars. For -1.5 < [Fe/H] < -0.3 exactly the same trend is followed by both the bulge and thick disk stars, with a star-to-star scatter of only 0.03 dex. Furthermore, both populations share the location of the knee in the [alpha/Fe] vs. [Fe/H] diagram. It still remains to be confirmed that the local thick disk extends to super-solar metallicities as is the case for the bulge. These are the most stringent constraints to date on the chemical similarity of these stellar populations. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that the bulge and local thick disk stars experienced similar formation timescales, star formation rates and initial mass functions, confirming thus the main outcomes of our previous homogeneous analysis of [O/Fe] from infrared spectra for nearly the same sample. The identical a-enhancements of thick disk and bulge stars may reflect a rapid chemical evolution taking place before the bulge and thick disk structures we see today were formed, or it may reflect Galactic orbital migration of inner disk/bulge stars resulting in stars in the solar neighborhood with thick-disk kinematics.

Patterns of diversification in two species of short-tailed bats (Carollia Gray, 1838): the effects of historical fragmentation of Brazilian rainforests

The small-sized frugivorous bat Carollia perspicillata is an understory specialist and occurs in a wide range of lowland habitats, tending to be more common in tropical dry or moist forests of South and Central America. Its sister species, Carollia brevicauda, occurs almost exclusively in the Amazon rainforest. A recent phylogeographic study proposed a hypothesis of origin and subsequent diversification for C. perspicillata along the Atlantic coastal forest of Brazil. Additionally, it also found two allopatric clades for C. brevicauda separated by the Amazon Basin. We used cytochrome b gene sequences and a more extensive sampling to test hypotheses related to the origin and diversification of C. perspicillata plus C. brevicauda clade in South America. The results obtained indicate that there are two sympatric evolutionary lineages within each species. In C. perspicillata, one lineage is limited to the Southern Atlantic Forest, whereas the other is widely distributed. Coalescent analysis points to a simultaneous origin for C. perspicillata and C. brevicauda, although no place for the diversification of each species can be firmly suggested. The phylogeographic pattern shown by C. perspicillata is also congruent with the Pleistocene refugia hypothesis as a likely vicariant phenomenon shaping the present distribution of its intraspecific lineages. (C) 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 102, 527-539.

Femtosecond light distribution at skin and liver of rats: analysis for use in optical diagnostics

In this study we investigated the light distribution under femtosecond laser illumination and its correlation with the collected diffuse scattering at the surface of ex-vivo rat skin and liver. The reduced scattering coefficients mu`s for liver and skin due to different scatterers have been determined with Mie-scattering theory for each wavelength (800, 630, and 490 nm). Absorption coefficients mu(a) were determined by diffusion approximation equation in correlation with measured diffused reflectance experimentally for each wavelength (800, 630, and 490 nm). The total attenuation coefficient for each wavelength and type of tissue were determined by linearly fitting the log based normalized intensity. Both tissues are strongly scattering thick tissues. Our results may be relevant when considering the use of femtosecond laser illumination as an optical diagnostic tool. [GRAPHICS] A typical sample of skin exposed to 630 nm laser light (C) 2010 by Astro Ltd. Published exclusively by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA

Random number generators for the generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distribution

The generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distribution pertains to a class of lifetime models including both lighter and heavier tailed distributions. This model adapts well to lifetime data, even when outliers exist, and has other good theoretical properties and application perspectives. However, statistical inference tools may not exist in closed form for this model. Hence, simulation and numerical studies are needed, which require a random number generator. Three different ways to generate observations from this model are considered here. These generators are compared by utilizing a goodness-of-fit procedure as well as their effectiveness in predicting the true parameter values by using Monte Carlo simulations. This goodness-of-fit procedure may also be used as an estimation method. The quality of this estimation method is studied here. Finally, through a real data set, the generalized and classical Birnbaum-Saunders models are compared by using this estimation method.

On estimation and influence diagnostics for the Grubbs` model under heavy-tailed distributions

The Grubbs` measurement model is frequently used to compare several measuring devices. It is common to assume that the random terms have a normal distribution. However, such assumption makes the inference vulnerable to outlying observations, whereas scale mixtures of normal distributions have been an interesting alternative to produce robust estimates, keeping the elegancy and simplicity of the maximum likelihood theory. The aim of this paper is to develop an EM-type algorithm for the parameter estimation, and to use the local influence method to assess the robustness aspects of these parameter estimates under some usual perturbation schemes, In order to identify outliers and to criticize the model building we use the local influence procedure in a Study to compare the precision of several thermocouples. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A new class of survival regression models with heavy-tailed errors: robustness and diagnostics

Birnbaum-Saunders models have largely been applied in material fatigue studies and reliability analyses to relate the total time until failure with some type of cumulative damage. In many problems related to the medical field, such as chronic cardiac diseases and different types of cancer, a cumulative damage caused by several risk factors might cause some degradation that leads to a fatigue process. In these cases, BS models can be suitable for describing the propagation lifetime. However, since the cumulative damage is assumed to be normally distributed in the BS distribution, the parameter estimates from this model can be sensitive to outlying observations. In order to attenuate this influence, we present in this paper BS models, in which a Student-t distribution is assumed to explain the cumulative damage. In particular, we show that the maximum likelihood estimates of the Student-t log-BS models attribute smaller weights to outlying observations, which produce robust parameter estimates. Also, some inferential results are presented. In addition, based on local influence and deviance component and martingale-type residuals, a diagnostics analysis is derived. Finally, a motivating example from the medical field is analyzed using log-BS regression models. Since the parameter estimates appear to be very sensitive to outlying and influential observations, the Student-t log-BS regression model should attenuate such influences. The model checking methodologies developed in this paper are used to compare the fitted models.

Microbial distribution in the root canal system after periapical lesion induction using different methods

The aim of this study was to evaluate the microbial distribution in the root canal system after periapical lesion induction in dogs' teeth using different methods. Fifty-two root canals were assigned to 4 groups (n=13). Groups I and II: root canals were exposed to the oral cavity for 180 days; groups III and IV: root canals were exposed for 7 days and then the coronal openings were sealed for 53 days. The root apices of groups I and III were perforated, while those of groups II and IV remained intact. After the experimental periods, the animals were euthanized and the anatomic pieces containing the roots were processed and stained with the Brown & Brenn method to assess the presence and distribution of microorganisms. The incidence of microorganisms at different sites of the roots and periapical lesions was analyzed statistically by the chi-square test at 5% significance level. All groups presented microorganisms in the entire root canal system. A larger number of microorganisms was observed on the root canal walls, apical delta and dentinal tubules (p<0.05), followed by cementum and cemental resorption areas. In spite of the different periods of exposure to the oral environment, the methods used for induction of periapical periodontitis yielded similar distribution of microorganisms in the root canal system.

Distribution of biotypes and leukotoxic activity of Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans isolated from Brazilian patients with chronic periodontitis

Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans is an important etiologic agent of the periodontitis and is associated with extra-oral infections. In this study, the detection of the ltxA gene as well as the ltx promoter region from leukotoxic A. actinomycetemcomitans isolated from 50 Brazilian patients with periodontitis and 50 healthy subjects was performed. The leukotoxic activity on HL-60 cells was also evaluated. Leukotoxic activity was determined using a trypan blue exclusion method. The 530 bp deletion in the promoter region was evaluated by PCR using a PRO primer pair. A. actinomycetemcomitans was detected by culture and directly from crude subgingival biofilm by PCR using specific primers. By culture, A. actinomycetemcomitans was detected in nine (18%) of the periodontal patients and one (2%) healthy subject. However, by PCR, this organism was detected in 44% of the periodontal patients and in 16% of the healthy subjects. It was verified a great discrepancy between PCR detection of the ltx operon promoter directly from crude subgingival biofilm and from bacterial DNA. Only one periodontal sample harbored highly leukotoxic A. actinomycetemcomitans. Moreover, biotype II was the most prevalent and no correlation between biotypes and leukotoxic activity was observed. The diversity of leukotoxin expression by A. actinomycetemcomitans suggests a role of this toxin in the pathogenesis of periodontal disease and other infectious diseases.

Inequalities in the distribution of dental caries among 12-year-old Brazilian schoolchildren

We assessed the inequality in the distribution of dental caries and the association between indicators of socioeconomic status and caries experience in a representative sample of schoolchildren. This study followed a cross-sectional design, with a sample of 792 schoolchildren aged 12 years, representative of this age group in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. Guardians answered questions on socioeconomic status and a dental examination provided information on the dental caries experience (DMF-T). Inequality in dental caries distribution was measured by the Gini coefficient and the Significant Caries Index (SiC). The assessment of association used Poisson regression models. Socioeconomic factors were associated with prevalence of dental caries for the whole sample and also for individuals with a high-caries level. Children from low-income households had the highest prevalence of dental caries. The Gini coefficient was 0.7 and the SiC Index 2.5. The percentage of caries prevalence was 39.3% (95% CI: 35.8%-42.8%) and the mean for DMF-T was 0.9 (± SD 1.5). Inequalities in the distribution of dental caries were observed and socioeconomic factors were found to be strong predictors of the prevalence of oral disease in children of this age group.

A new species of the genus Pimelerodius Vanin from the Amazon Region, with notes on the geografic distribution of Pimelerodius motacilla (Boheman) (Coleoptera, Curculionidae, Otidocephalini)

Pimelerodius punctiventris sp. nov. (type locality Brazil, Amazonas, Itacoatiara) is described and illustrated. The new taxon is compared with similar species, being distinguished from the other 12 known species of the genus by the presence of punctures in ventrite I. The available published key for identification of species of Pimelerodius is adapted to include the new species. A modification of the generic description of the aedeagus of Pimelerodius is provided, a necessity due to the differences observed in the aedeagus of the new species. The occurrence of P. motacilla (Boheman, 1843) in the Amazon Region, recorded in sympatry with P. punctiventris in Itacoatiara, AM, is discussed and confirmed, based on the study of 41 available specimens.

Glycosaminoglycan distribution in the rat uterine cervix during the estrous cycle

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the amount of glycosaminoglycans in the uterine cervix during each phase of the rat estrous cycle. DESIGN: Based on vaginal smears, forty female, regularly cycling rats were divided into four groups (n = 10 for each group): GI - proestrous, GII - estrous, GIII - metaestrous and GIV - diestrous. Animals were sacrificed at each phase of the cycle, and the cervix was immediately removed and submitted to biochemical extraction and determination of sulfated glycosaminoglycans and hyaluronic acid. The results were analyzed by ANOVA followed by the Bonferroni post-hoc test. RESULTS: The uterine cervix had the highest amount of total sulfated glycosaminoglycans and dermatan sulfate during the estrous phase (8.90 ± 0.55 mg/g of cetonic extract, p<0.001; and 8.86 ± 0.57 mg/g of cetonic extract, p<0.001). In addition, there was more heparan sulfate at the cervix during the proestrous phase (0.185 ± 0.03 mg/g of cetonic extract) than during any other phase (p<0.001). There were no significant changes in the concentration of hyaluronic acid in the uterine cervix during the estrous cycle. CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that the amount of total sulfated glycosaminoglycans may be influenced by hormonal fluctuations related to the estrous cycle, with dermatan sulfate and heparan sulfate being the glycosaminoglycans most sensitive to hormonal change.