Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961-1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071-2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5A degrees N-15A degrees S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6-8A degrees C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4A degrees C and in winter between 3 and 5A degrees C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.

Software reuse: The Brazilian industry scenario

This paper aims at identifying some of the key factors in adopting an organization-wide software reuse program. The factors are derived from practical experience reported by industry professionals, through a survey involving 57 Brazilian small, medium and large software organizations. Some of them produce software with commonality between applications, and have mature processes, while others successfully achieved reuse through isolated, ad hoe efforts. The paper compiles the answers from the survey participants, showing which factors were more associated with reuse success. Based on this relationship, a guide is presented, pointing out which factors should be more strongly considered by small, medium and large organizations attempting to establish a reuse program. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The perception of accessibility in Web development by academy, industry and government: a survey of the Brazilian scenario

Accessibility has become a serious issue to be considered by various sectors of the society. However, what are the differences between the perception of accessibility by academy, government and industry? In this paper, we present an analysis of this issue based on a large survey carried out with 613 participants involved with Web development, from all of the 27 Brazilian states. The paper presents results from the data analysis for each sector, along with statistical tests regarding the main different issues related to each of the sectors, such as: government and law, industry and techniques, academy and education. The concern about accessibility law is poor even amongst people from government sector. The analyses have also pointed out that the academy has not been addressing accessibility training accordingly. The knowledge about proper techniques to produce accessible contents is better than other sectors`, but still limited in industry. Stronger investments in training and in the promotion of consciousness about the law may be pointed as the most important tools to help a more effective policy on Web accessibility in Brazil.

A scenario for torus T(2) destruction via a global bifurcation

We show a scenario of a two-frequeney torus breakdown, in which a global bifurcation occurs due to the collision of a quasi-periodic torus T(2) with saddle points, creating a heteroclinic saddle connection. We analyze the geometry of this torus-saddle collision by showing the local dynamics and the invariant manifolds (global dynamics) of the saddle points. Moreover, we present detailed evidences of a heteroclinic saddle-focus orbit responsible for the type-if intermittency induced by this global bifurcation. We also characterize this transition to chaos by measuring the Lyapunov exponents and the scaling laws. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.