Stochastic lattice gas model describing the dynamics of the SIRS epidemic process

We study a stochastic process describing the onset of spreading dynamics of an epidemic in a population composed of individuals of three classes: susceptible (S), infected (I), and recovered (R). The stochastic process is defined by local rules and involves the following cyclic process: S -> I -> R -> S (SIRS). The open process S -> I -> R (SIR) is studied as a particular case of the SIRS process. The epidemic process is analyzed at different levels of description: by a stochastic lattice gas model and by a birth and death process. By means of Monte Carlo simulations and dynamical mean-field approximations we show that the SIRS stochastic lattice gas model exhibit a line of critical points separating the two phases: an absorbing phase where the lattice is completely full of S individuals and an active phase where S, I and R individuals coexist, which may or may not present population cycles. The critical line, that corresponds to the onset of epidemic spreading, is shown to belong in the directed percolation universality class. By considering the birth and death process we analyze the role of noise in stabilizing the oscillations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical solution of the eXtended Pom-Pom model for viscoelastic free surface flows

In this paper we present a finite difference method for solving two-dimensional viscoelastic unsteady free surface flows governed by the single equation version of the eXtended Pom-Pom (XPP) model. The momentum equations are solved by a projection method which uncouples the velocity and pressure fields. We are interested in low Reynolds number flows and, to enhance the stability of the numerical method, an implicit technique for computing the pressure condition on the free surface is employed. This strategy is invoked to solve the governing equations within a Marker-and-Cell type approach while simultaneously calculating the correct normal stress condition on the free surface. The numerical code is validated by performing mesh refinement on a two-dimensional channel flow. Numerical results include an investigation of the influence of the parameters of the XPP equation on the extrudate swelling ratio and the simulation of the Barus effect for XPP fluids. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical Solution of the Upper-Convected Maxwell Model for Three-Dimensional Free Surface Flows

This work presents a finite difference technique for simulating three-dimensional free surface flows governed by the Upper-Convected Maxwell (UCM) constitutive equation. A Marker-and-Cell approach is employed to represent the fluid free surface and formulations for calculating the non-Newtonian stress tensor on solid boundaries are developed. The complete free surface stress conditions are employed. The momentum equation is solved by an implicit technique while the UCM constitutive equation is integrated by the explicit Euler method. The resulting equations are solved by the finite difference method on a 3D-staggered grid. By using an exact solution for fully developed flow inside a pipe, validation and convergence results are provided. Numerical results include the simulation of the transient extrudate swell and the comparison between jet buckling of UCM and Newtonian fluids.

A singular integro-differential equation model for dryout in LMFBR boiler tubes

A 2D steady model for the annular two-phase flow of water and steam in the steam-generating boiler pipes of a liquid metal fast breeder reactor is proposed The model is based on thin-layer lubrication theory and thin aerofoil theory. The exchange of mass between the vapour core and the liquid film due to evaporation of the liquid film is accounted for using some simple thermodynamics models, and the resultant change of phase is modelled by proposing a suitable Stefan problem Appropriate boundary conditions for the now are discussed The resulting non-lineal singular integro-differential equation for the shape of the liquid film free surface is solved both asymptotically and numerically (using some regularization techniques) Predictions for the length to the dryout point from the entry of the annular regime are made The influence of both the traction tau provided by the fast-flowing vapour core on the liquid layer and the mass transfer parameter eta on the dryout length is investigated

Evaluation of a bounded high order upwind scheme for 3D incompressible free surface flow computations

fit the context of normalized variable formulation (NVF) of Leonard and total variation diminishing (TVD) constraints of Harten. this paper presents an extension of it previous work by the authors for solving unsteady incompressible flow problems. The main contributions of the paper are threefold. First, it presents the results of the development and implementation of a bounded high order upwind adaptative QUICKEST scheme in the 3D robust code (Freeflow), for the numerical solution of the full incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. Second, it reports numerical simulation results for 1D hock tube problem, 2D impinging jet and 2D/3D broken clam flows. Furthermore, these results are compared with existing analytical and experimental data. And third, it presents the application of the numerical method for solving 3D free surface flow problems. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved,

Numerical solution of the PTT constitutive equation for unsteady three-dimensional free surface flows

This work deals with the development of a numerical technique for simulating three-dimensional viscoelastic free surface flows using the PTT (Phan-Thien-Tanner) nonlinear constitutive equation. In particular, we are interested in flows possessing moving free surfaces. The equations describing the numerical technique are solved by the finite difference method on a staggered grid. The fluid is modelled by a Marker-and-Cell type method and an accurate representation of the fluid surface is employed. The full free surface stress conditions are considered. The PTT equation is solved by a high order method, which requires the calculation of the extra-stress tensor on the mesh contours. To validate the numerical technique developed in this work flow predictions for fully developed pipe flow are compared with an analytic solution from the literature. Then, results of complex free surface flows using the FIT equation such as the transient extrudate swell problem and a jet flowing onto a rigid plate are presented. An investigation of the effects of the parameters epsilon and xi on the extrudate swell and jet buckling problems is reported. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical prediction of three-dimensional time-dependent viscoelastic extrudate swell using differential and algebraic models

This study investigates the numerical simulation of three-dimensional time-dependent viscoelastic free surface flows using the Upper-Convected Maxwell (UCM) constitutive equation and an algebraic explicit model. This investigation was carried out to develop a simplified approach that can be applied to the extrudate swell problem. The relevant physics of this flow phenomenon is discussed in the paper and an algebraic model to predict the extrudate swell problem is presented. It is based on an explicit algebraic representation of the non-Newtonian extra-stress through a kinematic tensor formed with the scaled dyadic product of the velocity field. The elasticity of the fluid is governed by a single transport equation for a scalar quantity which has dimension of strain rate. Mass and momentum conservations, and the constitutive equation (UCM and algebraic model) were solved by a three-dimensional time-dependent finite difference method. The free surface of the fluid was modeled using a marker-and-cell approach. The algebraic model was validated by comparing the numerical predictions with analytic solutions for pipe flow. In comparison with the classical UCM model, one advantage of this approach is that computational workload is substantially reduced: the UCM model employs six differential equations while the algebraic model uses only one. The results showed stable flows with very large extrudate growths beyond those usually obtained with standard differential viscoelastic models. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An implicit technique for solving 3D low Reynolds number moving free surface flows

This paper describes the development of an implicit finite difference method for solving transient three-dimensional incompressible free surface flows. To reduce the CPU time of explicit low-Reynolds number calculations, we have combined a projection method with an implicit technique for treating the pressure on the free surface. The projection method is employed to uncouple the velocity and the pressure fields, allowing each variable to be solved separately. We employ the normal stress condition on the free surface to derive an implicit technique for calculating the pressure at the free surface. Numerical results demonstrate that this modification is essential for the construction of methods that are more stable than those provided by discretizing the free surface explicitly. In addition, we show that the proposed method can be applied to viscoelastic fluids. Numerical results include the simulation of jet buckling and extrudate swell for Reynolds numbers in the range [0.01, 0.5]. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nasal immunization of mice with Lactobacillus casei expressing the Pneumococcal Surface Protein A: induction of antibodies, complement deposition and partial protection against Streptococcus pneumoniae challenge

Strategies for the development of new vaccines against Streptococcus pneumoniae infections try to overcome problems such as serotype coverage and high costs, present in currently available vaccines. Formulations based on protein candidates that can induce protection in animal models have been pointed as good alternatives. Among them, the Pneumococcal Surface Protein A (PspA) plays an important role during systemic infection at least in part through the inhibition of complement deposition on the pneumococcal surface, a mechanism of evasion from the immune system. Antigen delivery systems based on live recombinant lactic acid bacteria (LAB) represents a promising strategy for mucosal vaccination, since they are generally regarded as safe bacteria able to elicit both systemic and mucosal immune responses. In this work, the N-terminal region of clade I PspA was constitutively expressed in Lactobacillus casei and the recombinant bacteria was tested as a mucosal vaccine in mice. Nasal immunization with L. casei-PspA 1 induced anti-PspA antibodies that were able to bind to pneumococcal strains carrying both clade 1 and clade 2 PspAs and to induce complement deposition on the surface of the bacteria. In addition, an increase in survival of immunized mice after a systemic challenge with a virulent pneumococcal strain was observed. (C) 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Using stochastic volatility models to analyse weekly ozone averages in Mexico City

In this paper we make use of some stochastic volatility models to analyse the behaviour of a weekly ozone average measurements series. The models considered here have been used previously in problems related to financial time series. Two models are considered and their parameters are estimated using a Bayesian approach based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Both models are applied to the data provided by the monitoring network of the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City. The selection of the best model for that specific data set is performed using the Deviance Information Criterion and the Conditional Predictive Ordinate method.

An unstructured CVFEM and moving interface algorithm for non-Newtonian Hele-Shaw flows in injection molding

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to develop a novel unstructured simulation approach for injection molding processes described by the Hele-Shaw model. Design/methodology/approach - The scheme involves dual dynamic meshes with active and inactive cells determined from an initial background pointset. The quasi-static pressure solution in each timestep for this evolving unstructured mesh system is approximated using a control volume finite element method formulation coupled to a corresponding modified volume of fluid method. The flow is considered to be isothermal and non-Newtonian. Findings - Supporting numerical tests and performance studies for polystyrene described by Carreau, Cross, Ellis and Power-law fluid models are conducted. Results for the present method are shown to be comparable to those from other methods for both Newtonian fluid and polystyrene fluid injected in different mold geometries. Research limitations/implications - With respect to the methodology, the background pointset infers a mesh that is dynamically reconstructed here, and there are a number of efficiency issues and improvements that would be relevant to industrial applications. For instance, one can use the pointset to construct special bases and invoke a so-called ""meshless"" scheme using the basis. This would require some interesting strategies to deal with the dynamic point enrichment of the moving front that could benefit from the present front treatment strategy. There are also issues related to mass conservation and fill-time errors that might be addressed by introducing suitable projections. The general question of ""rate of convergence"" of these schemes requires analysis. Numerical results here suggest first-order accuracy and are consistent with the approximations made, but theoretical results are not available yet for these methods. Originality/value - This novel unstructured simulation approach involves dual meshes with active and inactive cells determined from an initial background pointset: local active dual patches are constructed ""on-the-fly"" for each ""active point"" to form a dynamic virtual mesh of active elements that evolves with the moving interface.

Effect of solvent hydration and temperature in the deacidification process of sunflower oil using ethanol

This work presents liquid-liquid experimental data for systems composed of sunflower seed oil, ethanol and water from 10 to 60 degrees C. The influence of process variables (temperature (T) and water concentration in the solvent (W)) on both the solvent content present in the raffinate (S(RP)) and extract (S(EP)) phases and the partition of free fatty acids (k(2)) was evaluated using the response surface methodology, where flash calculations were performed for each trial using the UNIQUAC equation. Water content in the solvent was the most important factor on the responses of S(EP) and k(2). Additionally, statistical analysis showed that the S(RP) was predominantly affected by temperature factor for low water content in the solvent. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil

This work is an assessment of frequency of extreme values (EVs) of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo. Brazil, over the period 1933-2005, based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. Usually. a GPD model is fitted to a sample of POT Values Selected With a constant threshold. However. in this work we use time-dependent thresholds, composed of relatively large p quantities (for example p of 0.97) of daily rainfall amounts computed from all available data. Samples of POT values were extracted with several Values of p. Four different GPD models (GPD-1, GPD-2, GPD-3. and GDP-4) were fitted to each one of these samples by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The shape parameter was assumed constant for the four models, but time-varying covariates were incorporated into scale parameter of GPD-2. GPD-3, and GPD-4, describing annual cycle in GPD-2. linear trend in GPD-3, and both annual cycle and linear trend in GPD-4. The GPD-1 with constant scale and shape parameters is the simplest model. For identification of the best model among the four models WC used rescaled Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with second-order bias correction. This criterion isolates GPD-3 as the best model, i.e. the one with positive linear trend in the scale parameter. The slope of this trend is significant compared to the null hypothesis of no trend, for about 98% confidence level. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test also showed presence of positive trend in the annual frequency of excess over high thresholds. with p-value being virtually zero. Therefore. there is strong evidence that high quantiles of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo have been increasing in magnitude and frequency over time. For example. 0.99 quantiles of daily rainfall amount have increased by about 40 mm between 1933 and 2005. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Axially symmetric soliton solutions in a Skyrme-Faddeev-type model with Gies`s extension

We construct static soliton solutions with non-zero Hopf topological charges to a theory which is the extended Skyrme-Faddeev model with a further quartic term in derivatives. We use an axially symmetric ansatz based on toroidal coordinates, and solve the resulting two coupled nonlinear partial differential equations in two variables by a successive over-relaxation method. We construct numerical solutions with the Hopf charge up to 4. The solutions present an interesting behavior under the changes of a special combination of the coupling constants of the quartic terms.

Modeling and simulation of the anode in direct ethanol fuels cells

Mathematical modeling has been extensively applied to the study and development of fuel cells. In this work, the objective is to characterize a mechanistic model for the anode of a direct ethanol fuel cell and perform appropriate simulations. The software Comsol Multiphysics (R) (and the Chemical Engineering Module) was used in this work. The software Comsol Multiphysics (R) is an interactive environment for modeling scientific and engineering applications using partial differential equations (PDEs). Based on the finite element method, it provides speed and accuracy for several applications. The mechanistic model developed here can supply details of the physical system, such as the concentration profiles of the components within the anode and the coverage of the adsorbed species on the electrode surface. Also, the anode overpotential-current relationship can be obtained. To validate the anode model presented in this paper, experimental data obtained with a single fuel cell operating with an ethanol solution at the anode were used. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.