Previsões climáticas sazonais sobre o Brasil: avaliação do RegCM3 aninhado no modelo global CPTEC/COLA

Este trabalho avalia o desempenho de previsões sazonais do modelo climático regional RegCM3, aninhado ao modelo global CPTEC/COLA. As previsões com o RegCM3 utilizaram 60 km de resolução horizontal num domínio que inclui grande parte da América do Sul. As previsões do RegCM3 e CPTEC/COLA foram avaliadas utilizando as análises de chuva e temperatura do ar do Climate Prediction Center (CPC) e National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP), respectivamente. Entre maio de 2005 e julho de 2007, 27 previsões sazonais de chuva e temperatura do ar (exceto a temperatura do CPTEC/COLA, que possui 26 previsões) foram avaliadas em três regiões do Brasil: Nordeste (NDE), Sudeste (SDE) e Sul (SUL). As previsões do RegCM3 também foram comparadas com as climatologias das análises. De acordo com os índices estatísticos (bias, coeficiente de correlação, raiz quadrada do erro médio quadrático e coeficiente de eficiência), nas três regiões (NDE, SDE e SUL) a chuva sazonal prevista pelo RegCM3 é mais próxima da observada do que a prevista pelo CPTEC/COLA. Além disto, o RegCM3 também é melhor previsor da chuva sazonal do que da média das observações nas três regiões. Para temperatura, as previsões do RegCM3 são superiores às do CPTEC/COLA nas áreas NDE e SUL, enquanto o CPTEC/COLA é superior no SDE. Finalmente, as previsões de chuva e temperatura do RegCM3 são mais próximas das observações do que a climatologia observada. Estes resultados indicam o potencial de utilização do RegCM3 para previsão sazonal, que futuramente deverá ser explorado através de previsão por conjunto.

Synthesis, screening for antiacetylcholinesterase activity and binding mode prediction of a new series of [3-(disubstituted-phosphate)-4,4,4-trifluoro-butyl]-carbamic acid ethyl esters

A series of nine new [3-(disubstituted-phosphate)-4,4,4-trifluoro-butyl]-carbamic acid ethyl esters (phosphate-carbamate compounds) was obtained through the reaction of (4,4,4-trifluoro-3-hydroxybut-1-yl)-carbamic acid ethyl esters with phosphorus oxychloride followed by the addition of alcohols. The products were characterized by ¹H, 13C, 31P, and 19F NMR spectroscopy, GC-MS, and elemental analysis. All the synthesized compounds were screened for acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibitory activity using the Ellman method. All compounds containing phosphate and carbamate pharmacophores in their structures showed enzyme inhibition, being the compound bearing the diethoxy phosphate group (2b) the most active compound. Molecular modeling studies were performed to investigate the detailed interactions between AChE active site and small-molecule inhibitor candidates, providing valuable structural insights into AChE inhibition.

Keratoconus prediction using a finite element model of the cornea with local biomechanical properties

PURPOSE: The ability to predict and understand which biomechanical properties of the cornea are responsible for the stability or progression of keratoconus may be an important clinical and surgical tool for the eye-care professional. We have developed a finite element model of the cornea, that tries to predicts keratoconus-like behavior and its evolution based on material properties of the corneal tissue. METHODS: Corneal material properties were modeled using bibliographic data and corneal topography was based on literature values from a schematic eye model. Commercial software was used to simulate mechanical and surface properties when the cornea was subject to different local parameters, such as elasticity. RESULTS: The simulation has shown that, depending on the corneal initial surface shape, changes in local material properties and also different intraocular pressures values induce a localized protuberance and increase in curvature when compared to the remaining portion of the cornea. CONCLUSIONS: This technique provides a quantitative and accurate approach to the problem of understanding the biomechanical nature of keratoconus. The implemented model has shown that changes in local material properties of the cornea and intraocular pressure are intrinsically related to keratoconus pathology and its shape/curvature.

High resolution study of 104Pd(d,t)103Pd

Information collected in the present high resolution study of 104Pd(d,t)103Pd is interpreted within the systematics of the A ~ 100 region. The paper complements data previously presented by the S.Paulo Group, which were taken with the Pelletron-Enge-Spectrograph facility. A one-to-one correspondence to gamma ray results for 103Pd, collected by the Nuclear Data Sheets (NDS), was achieved and at least four open questions were settled. More reliable spectroscopic strengths were extracted in the present study.

Enzymatic kinetic resolution of (RS)-1-(Phenyl)ethanols by Burkholderia cepacia lipase immobilized on magnetic nanoparticles

Lipase from Burkholderia cepacia immobilized on superparamagnetic nanoparticles using adsorption and chemisorption methodologies was efficiently applied as recyclable biocatalyst in the enzymatic kinetic resolution of (RS)-1-(phenyl)ethanols via transesterification reactions. (R)-Esters and the remaining (S)-alcohols were obtained with excellent enantiomeric excess (> 99%), which corresponds to a perfect process of enzymatic kinetic resolution (conversion 50%, E > 200). The transesterification reactions catalysed with B. cepacia lipase immobilized by the glutaraldehyde method showed the best results in terms of reusability, preserving the enzyme activity (conversion 50%, E > 200) for at least 8 successive cycles.

Prediction of good glass formers in the Al-Ni-La and Al-Ni-Gd systems using topological instability and electronegativity

A new criterion has been recently proposed combining the topological instability (lambda criterion) and the average electronegativity difference (Delta e) among the elements of an alloy to predict and select new glass-forming compositions. In the present work, this criterion (lambda.Delta e) is applied to the Al-Ni-La and Al-Ni-Gd ternary systems and its predictability is validated using literature data for both systems and additionally, using own experimental data for the Al-La-Ni system. The compositions with a high lambda.Delta e value found in each ternary system exhibit a very good correlation with the glass-forming ability of different alloys as indicated by their supercooled liquid regions (Delta T(x)) and their critical casting thicknesses. In the case of the Al-La-Ni system, the alloy with the largest lambda.Delta e value, La(56)Al(26.5)Ni(17.5), exhibits the highest glass-forming ability verified for this system. Therefore, the combined lambda.Delta e criterion is a simple and efficient tool to select new glass-forming compositions in Al-Ni-RE systems. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3563099]

System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

Estimation and prediction of parameters and breeding values in soybean using REML/BLUP and Least Squares

The aim of this study was to compare REML/BLUP and Least Square procedures in the prediction and estimation of genetic parameters and breeding values in soybean progenies. F(2:3) and F(4:5) progenies were evaluated in the 2005/06 growing season and the F(2:4) and F(4:6) generations derived thereof were evaluated in 2006/07. These progenies were originated from two semi-early, experimental lines that differ in grain yield. The experiments were conducted in a lattice design and plots consisted of a 2 m row, spaced 0.5 m apart. The trait grain yield per plot was evaluated. It was observed that early selection is more efficient for the discrimination of the best lines from the F(4) generation onwards. No practical differences were observed between the least square and REML/BLUP procedures in the case of the models and simplifications for REML/BLUP used here.

Shallow landslide prediction in the Serra do Mar, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Various methods are currently used in order to predict shallow landslides within the catchment scale. Among them, physically based models present advantages associated with the physical description of processes by means of mathematical equations. The main objective of this research is the prediction of shallow landslides using TRIGRS model, in a pilot catchment located at Serra do Mar mountain range, Sao Paulo State, southeastern Brazil. Susceptibility scenarios have been simulated taking into account different mechanical and hydrological values. These scenarios were analysed based on a landslide scars map from the January 1985 event, upon which two indexes were applied: Scars Concentration (SC - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells with scars within the catchment) and Landslide Potential (LP - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells in that same class). The results showed a significant agreement between the simulated scenarios and the scar's map. In unstable areas (SF <= 1), the SC values exceeded 50% in all scenarios. Based on the results, the use of this model should be considered an important tool for shallow landslide prediction, especially in areas where mechanical and hydrological properties of the materials are not well known.

Sudan Black B treatment reduces autofluorescence and improves resolution of in situ hybridization specific fluorescent signals of brain sections

Interference by autofluorescence is one of the major concerns of immunofluorescence analysis of in situ hybridization-based diagnostic assays. We present a useful technique that reduces autofluorescent background without affecting the tissue integrity or direct immunofluorescence signals in brain sections. Using six different protocols, such as ammonia/ethanol, Sudan Black B (SBB) in 70% ethanol, photobleaching with UV light and different combinations of them in both formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded and frozen human brain tissue sections, we have found that tissue treatment of SBB in a concentration of 0.1% in 70% ethanol is the best approach to reduce/eliminate tissue autofluorescence and background, while preserving the specific fluorescence hybridization signals. This strategy is a feasible, non-time consuming method that provides a reasonable compromise between total reduction of the tissue autofluorescence and maintenance of specific fluorescent labels.

High spatial resolution spectroscopy of W51IRS 2E and IRS 2W: Two very massive young stars in early formation stages

We present K-band spectra of the near infrared counterparts to IRS 2E and IRS 2W which is associated with the ultracompact H II region W51d, both of them embedded sources in the Galactic compact H II region W51 IRS 2. The high spatial resolution observations were obtained with the laser guide star facility and Near-infrared Integral Field Spectrograph (NIFS) mounted at the Gemini-North observatory. The spectrum of the ionizing source of W51d shows the photospheric features N III ( 21155 angstrom) in emission and He II ( 21897 angstrom) in absorption which lead us to classify it as a young O3 type star. We detected CO overtone in emission at 23000 angstrom in the spectrum of IRS 2E, suggesting that it is a massive young object still surrounded by an accretion disk, probably transitioning from the hot core phase to an ultracompact H II region.

Chemical abundances of 11 bulge stars from high-resolution, near-IR spectra

Context. It is debated whether the Milky Way bulge has characteristics more similar to those of a classical bulge than those of a pseudobulge. Detailed abundance studies of bulge stars are important when investigating the origin, history, and classification of the bulge. These studies provide constraints on the star-formation history, initial mass function, and differences between stellar populations. Not many similar studies have been completed because of the large distance and high variable visual extinction along the line-of-sight towards the bulge. Therefore, near-IR investigations can provide superior results. Aims. To investigate the origin of the bulge and study its chemical abundances determined from near-IR spectra for bulge giants that have already been investigated with optical spectra. The optical spectra also provide the stellar parameters that are very important to the present study. In particular, the important CNO elements are determined more accurately in the near-IR. Oxygen and other alpha elements are important for investigating the star-formation history. The C and N abundances are important for determining the evolutionary stage of the giants and the origin of C in the bulge. Methods. High-resolution, near-infrared spectra in the H band were recorded using the CRIRES spectrometer mounted on the Very Large Telescope. The CNO abundances are determined from the numerous molecular lines in the wavelength range observed. Abundances of the alpha elements Si, S, and Ti are also determined from the near-IR spectra. Results. The abundance ratios [O/Fe], [Si/Fe], and [S/Fe] are enhanced to metallicities of at least [Fe/H] = -0.3, after which they decline. This suggests that the Milky Way bulge experienced a rapid and early burst of star formation similar to that of a classical bulge. However, a similarity between the bulge trend and the trend of the local thick disk seems to be present. This similarity suggests that the bulge could have had a pseudobulge origin. The C and N abundances suggest that our giants are first-ascent red-giants or clump stars, and that the measured oxygen abundances are those with which the stars were born. Our [C/Fe] trend does not show any increase with [Fe/H], which is expected if W-R stars contributed substantially to the C abundances. No ""cosmic scatter"" can be traced around our observed abundance trends: the measured scatter is expected, given the observational uncertainties.

AUTOMATED DETERMINATION OF [Fe/H] AND [C/Fe] FROM LOW-RESOLUTION SPECTROSCOPY

We develop an automated spectral synthesis technique for the estimation of metallicities ([Fe/H]) and carbon abundances ([C/Fe]) for metal-poor stars, including carbon-enhanced metal-poor stars, for which other methods may prove insufficient. This technique, autoMOOG, is designed to operate on relatively strong features visible in even low- to medium-resolution spectra, yielding results comparable to much more telescope-intensive high-resolution studies. We validate this method by comparison with 913 stars which have existing high-resolution and low- to medium-resolution to medium-resolution spectra, and that cover a wide range of stellar parameters. We find that at low metallicities ([Fe/H] less than or similar to -2.0), we successfully recover both the metallicity and carbon abundance, where possible, with an accuracy of similar to 0.20 dex. At higher metallicities, due to issues of continuum placement in spectral normalization done prior to the running of autoMOOG, a general underestimate of the overall metallicity of a star is seen, although the carbon abundance is still successfully recovered. As a result, this method is only recommended for use on samples of stars of known sufficiently low metallicity. For these low- metallicity stars, however, autoMOOG performs much more consistently and quickly than similar, existing techniques, which should allow for analyses of large samples of metal-poor stars in the near future. Steps to improve and correct the continuum placement difficulties are being pursued.

Biologically Plausible Connectionist Prediction of Natural Language Thematic Relations

In Natural Language Processing (NLP) symbolic systems, several linguistic phenomena, for instance, the thematic role relationships between sentence constituents, such as AGENT, PATIENT, and LOCATION, can be accounted for by the employment of a rule-based grammar. Another approach to NLP concerns the use of the connectionist model, which has the benefits of learning, generalization and fault tolerance, among others. A third option merges the two previous approaches into a hybrid one: a symbolic thematic theory is used to supply the connectionist network with initial knowledge. Inspired on neuroscience, it is proposed a symbolic-connectionist hybrid system called BIO theta PRED (BIOlogically plausible thematic (theta) symbolic-connectionist PREDictor), designed to reveal the thematic grid assigned to a sentence. Its connectionist architecture comprises, as input, a featural representation of the words (based on the verb/noun WordNet classification and on the classical semantic microfeature representation), and, as output, the thematic grid assigned to the sentence. BIO theta PRED is designed to ""predict"" thematic (semantic) roles assigned to words in a sentence context, employing biologically inspired training algorithm and architecture, and adopting a psycholinguistic view of thematic theory.

Accurate prediction of the Si/SiO(2) interface band offset using the self-consistent ab initio DFT/LDA-1/2 method

We use the density functional theory/local-density approximation (DFT/LDA)-1/2 method [L. G. Ferreira , Phys. Rev. B 78, 125116 (2008)], which attempts to fix the electron self-energy deficiency of DFT/LDA by half-ionizing the whole Bloch band of the crystal, to calculate the band offsets of two Si/SiO(2) interface models. Our results are similar to those obtained with a ""state-of-the-art"" GW approach [R. Shaltaf , Phys. Rev. Lett. 100, 186401 (2008)], with the advantage of being as computationally inexpensive as the usual DFT/LDA. Our band gap and band offset predictions are in excellent agreement with experiments.