85 resultados para rare event simulation
em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo (BDPI/USP)
Resumo:
We prove that for any a-mixing stationary process the hitting time of any n-string A(n) converges, when suitably normalized, to an exponential law. We identify the normalization constant lambda(A(n)). A similar statement holds also for the return time. To establish this result we prove two other results of independent interest. First, we show a relation between the rescaled hitting time and the rescaled return time, generalizing a theorem of Haydn, Lacroix and Vaienti. Second, we show that for positive entropy systems, the probability of observing any n-string in n consecutive observations goes to zero as n goes to infinity. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The purpose of this paper is to propose a multiobjective optimization approach for solving the manufacturing cell formation problem, explicitly considering the performance of this said manufacturing system. Cells are formed so as to simultaneously minimize three conflicting objectives, namely, the level of the work-in-process, the intercell moves and the total machinery investment. A genetic algorithm performs a search in the design space, in order to approximate to the Pareto optimal set. The values of the objectives for each candidate solution in a population are assigned by running a discrete-event simulation, in which the model is automatically generated according to the number of machines and their distribution among cells implied by a particular solution. The potential of this approach is evaluated via its application to an illustrative example, and a case from the relevant literature. The obtained results are analyzed and reviewed. Therefore, it is concluded that this approach is capable of generating a set of alternative manufacturing cell configurations considering the optimization of multiple performance measures, greatly improving the decision making process involved in planning and designing cellular systems. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
In the last decades, the air traffic system has been changing to adapt itself to new social demands, mainly the safe growth of worldwide traffic capacity. Those changes are ruled by the Communication, Navigation, Surveillance/Air Traffic Management (CNS/ATM) paradigm, based on digital communication technologies (mainly satellites) as a way of improving communication, surveillance, navigation and air traffic management services. However, CNS/ATM poses new challenges and needs, mainly related to the safety assessment process. In face of these new challenges, and considering the main characteristics of the CNS/ATM, a methodology is proposed at this work by combining ""absolute"" and ""relative"" safety assessment methods adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in ICAO Doc.9689 [14], using Fluid Stochastic Petri Nets (FSPN) as the modeling formalism, and compares the safety metrics estimated from the simulation of both the proposed (in analysis) and the legacy system models. To demonstrate its usefulness, the proposed methodology was applied to the ""Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcasting"" (ADS-B) based air traffic control system. As conclusions, the proposed methodology assured to assess CNS/ATM system safety properties, in which FSPN formalism provides important modeling capabilities, and discrete event simulation allowing the estimation of the desired safety metric. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Menstrual cycles of 30 patients with juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (JSLE) were compared with 30 age-matched controls. The mean age of patients with JSLE and controls was similar (17.4 +/- 3.2 vs 17.06 +/- 2.08 years, P = 0.66). The mean menarche age was higher in JSLE than controls (13.13 +/- 1.4 vs 11.56 +/- 1.5 years, P = 0.0008). On the contrary, the mean maternal menarche age was similar in both groups (P = 0.62). Menstrual abnormalities and longer length cycles were more frequently observed in JSLE than controls (63% vs 10%, P = 0.0001; 23% vs 0%, P = 0.0105, respectively). The median of follicle stimulating hormone was significantly higher in patients with JSLE compared with controls (4.6 vs 3.4 IU/L, P = 0.0207), and the median of progesterone was lower (32.5 vs 70 ng/mL, P = 0.0033). The median Of luteinizing hormone was lower in patients with JSLE with menstrual abnormalities versus normal cycles (2.9 vs 5.5 IU/L, P = 0.019) and both had a high percentage of decreased progesterone levels (63% vs 73%, P = 0.70). Our findings support the notion that menstrual disturbances are frequent and may be associated with pituitary dysfunction leading to a decreased progesterone production. We also reported that in spite of premature ovarian failure being a rare event in JSLE the follicular reserve seems to be low regardless of intravenous cyclophosphamide treatment. Lupus (2009) 18, 38-43.
Resumo:
Femoral neck fracture without associated trauma following consolidation of a transtrochanteric fracture is a rare event. The authors report a case of transtrochanteric fracture that was treated with PFN and which presented fracturing of the femoral neck two weeks after removal of the device. This occurrence was treated with partial arthroplasty.
Resumo:
P>Objective Congenital hypogonadotropic hypogonadism with anosmia (Kallmann syndrome) or with normal sense of smell is a heterogeneous genetic disorder caused by defects in the synthesis, secretion and action of gonadotrophin-releasing hormone (GnRH). Mutations involving autosomal genes have been identified in approximately 30% of all cases of hypogonadotropic hypogonadism. However, most studies that screened patients with hypogonadotropic hypogonadism for gene mutations did not include gene dosage methodologies. Therefore, it remains to be determined whether patients without detected point mutation carried a heterozygous deletion of one or more exons. Measurements We used the multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) assay to evaluate the potential contribution of heterozygous deletions of FGFR1, GnRH1, GnRHR, GPR54 and NELF genes in the aetiology of GnRH deficiency. Patients We studied a mutation-negative cohort of 135 patients, 80 with Kallmann syndrome and 55 with normosmic hypogonadotropic hypogonadism. Results One large heterozygous deletion involving all FGFR1 exons was identified in a female patient with sporadic normosmic hypogonadotropic hypogonadism and mild dimorphisms as ogival palate and cavus foot. FGFR1 hemizygosity was confirmed by gene dosage with comparative multiplex and real-time PCRs. Conclusions FGFR1 or other autosomal gene deletion is a possible but very rare event and does not account for a significant number of sporadic or inherited cases of isolated GnRH deficiency.
Resumo:
This study presents the first analysis of the energetics associated with a hybrid cyclone`s transition in the Southern Hemisphere, Hurricane Catarina ( March 2004). Catarina has earned a place in history as the first documented South Atlantic hurricane, but its unusual tropical transition is still poorly understood. Here we show that Catarina`s transition was preceded by marked environmental changes in the Lorenz energy cycle, with an abrupt shift from a baroclinic to a predominantly barotropic state. Such changes help to explain the unusual vortex`s growth until its transition was completed. Although the vortex`s energy flux is not explicitly calculated, a likely mechanism linking the environmental energetics with Catarina is the extraction of eddy kinetic energy from horizontal momentum and heat transfers within the through component of the blocking. The results advance the understanding of this rare event and suggest that the technique has a great potential to study transitioning systems in general.
Resumo:
We report on the event structure and double helicity asymmetry (A(LL)) of jet production in longitudinally polarized p + p collisions at root s = 200 GeV. Photons and charged particles were measured by the PHENIX experiment at midrapidity vertical bar eta vertical bar < 0.35 with the requirement of a high-momentum (> 2 GeV/c) photon in the event. Event structure, such as multiplicity, p(T) density and thrust in the PHENIX acceptance, were measured and compared with the results from the PYTHIA event generator and the GEANT detector simulation. The shape of jets and the underlying event were well reproduced at this collision energy. For the measurement of jet A(LL), photons and charged particles were clustered with a seed-cone algorithm to obtain the cluster pT sum (p(T)(reco)). The effect of detector response and the underlying events on p(T)(reco) was evaluated with the simulation. The production rate of reconstructed jets is satisfactorily reproduced with the next-to-leading-order and perturbative quantum chromodynamics jet production cross section. For 4< p(T)(reco) < 12 GeV/c with an average beam polarization of < P > = 49% we measured Lambda(LL) = -0.0014 +/- 0.0037(stat) at the lowest p(T)(reco) bin (4-5 GeV= c) and -0.0181 +/- 0.0282(stat) at the highest p(T)(reco) bin (10-12 GeV= c) with a beam polarization scale error of 9.4% and a pT scale error of 10%. Jets in the measured p(T)(reco) range arise primarily from hard-scattered gluons with momentum fraction 0: 02 < x < 0: 3 according to PYTHIA. The measured A(LL) is compared with predictions that assume various Delta G(x) distributions based on the Gluck-Reya-Stratmann-Vogelsang parameterization. The present result imposes the limit -a.1 < integral(0.3)(0.02) dx Delta G(x, mu(2) = GeV2) < 0.4 at 95% confidence level or integral(0.3)(0.002) dx Delta G(x, mu(2) = 1 GeV2) < 0.5 at 99% confidence level.
Resumo:
The structural, dielectric, and vibrational properties of pure and rare earth (RE)-doped Ba(0.77) Ca(0.23)TiO(3) (BCT23; RE = Nd, Sm, Pr, Yb) ceramics obtained via solid-state reaction were investigated. The pure and RE-doped BCT23 ceramics sintered at 1450 degrees C in air for 4 h showed a dense microstructure in all ceramics. The use of RE ions as dopants introduced lattice-parameter changes that manifested in the reduction of the volume of the unit cell. RE-doped BCT23 samples exhibit a more homogenous microstructure due to the absence of a Ti-rich phase in the grain boundaries as demonstrated by scanning electron microscopy imaging. The incorporation of REs led to perturbations of the local symmetry of TiO(6) octahedra and the creation of a new Raman mode. The results of Raman scattering measurements indicated that the Curie temperature of the ferroelectric phase transition depends on the RE ion and ion content, with the Curie temperature shifting toward lower values as the RE content increases, with the exception of Yb(3+) doping, which did not affect the ferroelectric phase transition temperature. The phase transition behavior is explained using the standard soft mode model. Electronic paramagnetic resonance measurements showed the existence of Ti vacancies in the structure of RE-doped BCT23. Defects are created via charge compensation mechanisms due to the incorporation of elements with a different valence state relative to the ions of the pure BCT23 host. It is concluded that the Ti vacancies are responsible for the activation of the Raman mode at 840 cm(-1), which is in agreement with lattice dynamics calculations. (c) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3594710]
Resumo:
PRES is a neuroclinical and radiological syndrome that results from treatment with calcineurin inhibitor immunosuppressives. Severe hypertension is commonly present, but some patients may be normotensive. We report herein two children who received liver transplants, as treatment for biliary atresia in the first case and for Alagille`s syndrome in the second one. In the early postoperative, both patients presented hypertension and seizures. In both cases, the image findings suggested the diagnosis of PRES. The CT scan showed alterations in the posterior area of the brain, and brain MRI demonstrated parietal and occipital areas of high signal intensity. Both children were treated by switching the immunosuppressive regimen and controlling arterial blood pressure. They displayed full recuperation without any neurologic sequelae. Probably, the pathophysiology of PRES results from sparse sympathetic innervation of the vertebrobasilar circulation, which is responsible for supplying blood to the posterior areas of the brain. In conclusion, all liver-transplanted children who present with neurological symptoms PRES should be considered in the differential diagnosis, although this is a rare complication. As treatment, we recommend rigorous control of arterial blood pressure and switching the immunosuppressive regimen.
Resumo:
The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of intrapulpal pressure simulation on the bonding effectiveness of etch & rinse and self-etch adhesives to dentin. Eighty sound human molars were distributed into eight groups, according to the permeability level of each sample, measured by an apparatus to assess hydraulic conductance (Lp). Thus, a similar mean permeability was achieved in each group. Three etch & rinse adhesives (Prime & Bond NT - PB, Single Bond -SB, and Excite - EX) and one self-etch system (Clearfil SE Bond - SE) were employed, varying the presence or absence of an intrapulpal pressure (IPP) simulation of 15 cmH2O. After adhesive and restorative procedures were carried out, the samples were stored in distilled water for 24 hours at 37°C, and taken for tensile bond strength (TBS) testing. Fracture analysis was performed using a light microscope at 40 X magnification. The data, obtained in MPa, were then submitted to the Kruskal-Wallis test ( a = 0.05). The results revealed that the TBS of SB and EX was significantly reduced under IPP simulation, differing from the TBS of PB and SE. Moreover, SE obtained the highest bond strength values in the presence of IPP. It could be concluded that IPP simulation can influence the bond strength of certain adhesive systems to dentin and should be considered when in vitro studies are conducted.
Resumo:
Um evento extremo de precipitação ocorreu na primeira semana do ano 2000, de 1º a 5 de janeiro, no Vale do Paraíba, parte leste do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, causando enorme impacto socioeconômico, com mortes e destruição. Este trabalho estudou este evento em 10 estações meteorológicas selecionadas que foram consideradas como aquelas tendo dados mais homogêneos do Que outras estações na região. O modelo de distribuição generalizada de Pareto (DGP) para valores extremos de precipitação de 5 dias foi desenvolvido, individualmente para cada uma dessas estações. Na modelagem da DGP, foi adotada abordagem não-estacionaria considerando o ciclo anual e tendência de longo prazo como co-variaveis. Uma conclusão desta investigação é que as quantidades de precipitação acumulada durante os 5 dias do evento estudado podem ser classificadas como extremamente raras para a região, com probabilidade de ocorrência menor do que 1% para maioria das estações, e menor do que 0,1% em três estações.
Resumo:
Este trabalho apresenta uma análise das condições sinótica e dinâmica associadas ao desenvolvimento do ciclone ocorrido entre 12 e 19 de setembro de 2008, com o objetivo de destacar diferenças e semelhanças com o ambiente em que se inseriu o evento Catarina em março de 2004. As principais semelhanças foram encontradas no padrão sinótico geral: a ocorrência de um padrão típico de bloqueio do tipo dipolo associado à anomalia de vorticidade potencial em altos níveis; cavado em níveis médios com inclinação para oeste; a presença de uma coluna de vorticidade ciclônica desde a superfície até a baixa estratosfera; e, em superfície, o padrão de uma alta ao sul de uma baixa pressão. Apesar das semelhanças no padrão geral, diferenças ocorreram entre os dois eventos que influenciaram na intensidade dos sistemas: o Catarina ocorreu em latitudes mais baixas em relação ao caso de setembro de 2008; o padrão típico de bloqueio associado ao caso de setembro de 2008 durou um dia e meio, enquanto no evento Catarina foi de três dias; a configuração da advecção de temperatura na camada entre 1000-500 hPa favoreceu o deslocamento do evento de setembro de 2008 para leste/sudeste, ao contrário do Catarina, a advecção de ar quente a leste do ciclone foi praticamente suprimida e a tendência de altura geopotencial passou a ser positiva, padrões que impedem o deslocamento do sistema para leste; no caso de setembro de 2008 o padrão da inversão do gradiente meridional de temperatura potencial na superfície de -2,0 unidade de vorticidade potencial (UVP) foi caracterizado pela incursão de uma região alongada de ar quente vinda do equador em direção ao sul e ar frio vinda do sul em direção ao equador, enquanto no caso Catarina a inversão ocorre pelo isolamento de uma bolha de ar frio ao norte e uma bolha de ar quente ao sul, o que pode ter contribuído para maior duração do padrão de bloqueio, pois a dissipação neste caso é dificultada. Sistemas como o Catarina podem ser raros no Atlântico Sul, mas isso não ocorre em relação ao ambiente sinótico em que se formou o Catarina. Para melhor entender o processo atmosférico que levou à formação do Catarina, é necessário realizar experimentos numéricos de sensibilidade para o caso de setembro de 2008 com o objetivo de verificar a possibilidade do ciclone extratropical se tornar um ciclone tropical.
Resumo:
Below cloud scavenging processes have been investigated considering a numerical simulation, local atmospheric conditions and particulate matter (PM) concentrations, at different sites in Germany. The below cloud scavenging model has been coupled with bulk particulate matter counter TSI (Trust Portacounter dataset, consisting of the variability prediction of the particulate air concentrations during chosen rain events. The TSI samples and meteorological parameters were obtained during three winter Campaigns: at Deuselbach, March 1994, consisting in three different events; Sylt, April 1994 and; Freiburg, March 1995. The results show a good agreement between modeled and observed air concentrations, emphasizing the quality of the conceptual model used in the below cloud scavenging numerical modeling. The results between modeled and observed data have also presented high square Pearson coefficient correlations over 0.7 and significant, except the Freiburg Campaign event. The differences between numerical simulations and observed dataset are explained by the wind direction changes and, perhaps, the absence of advection mass terms inside the modeling. These results validate previous works based on the same conceptual model.
Resumo:
We describe paternal care in two pentatomid bugs, Lopadusa (Lopadusa) augur Stål, 1860 and Edessa nigropunctata Berg, 1884. Field and laboratory observations showed that males remain with their eggs and early hatched nymphs, while females abandon the eggs after oviposition. Guarding males defensive behaviors towards their clutches were similar to those described for guarding females of pentatomids. Since there is no detailed information on the internal phylogeny of Pentatomidae, it is not possible to make a robust inference on whether paternal care in L. augur and E. nigropunctata has arisen independently or not. If the latter, the two new cases of paternal care we describe here represent the fifth event of independent evolution of this rare behavioral trait in Heteroptera.