Um modelo estocástico combinado de previsão sazonal para a precipitação no Brasil

Este artigo discute um modelo de previsão combinada para a realização de prognósticos climáticos na escala sazonal. Nele, previsões pontuais de modelos estocásticos são agregadas para obter as melhores projeções no tempo. Utilizam-se modelos estocásticos autoregressivos integrados a médias móveis, de suavização exponencial e previsões por análise de correlações canônicas. O controle de qualidade das previsões é feito através da análise dos resíduos e da avaliação do percentual de redução da variância não-explicada da modelagem combinada em relação às previsões dos modelos individuais. Exemplos da aplicação desses conceitos em modelos desenvolvidos no Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) mostram bons resultados e ilustram que as previsões do modelo combinado, superam na maior parte dos casos a de cada modelo componente, quando comparadas aos dados observados.

Impact of outdoor biomass air pollution on hypertension hospital admissions

Background This study aimed to evaluate the association between the total suspended particles (TSP) generated from burning sugar cane plantations and the incidence of hospital admissions from hypertension in the city of Araraquara. Methods The study was an ecological time-series study. Total daily records of hypertension (ICD 10th I10-15) were obtained from admitted patients of all ages in a hospital in Araraquara, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, from 23 March 2003 to 27 July 2004. The daily concentration of TSP (mu g/m(3)) was obtained using a Handi-Vol sampler placed in downtown Araraquara. The local airport provided daily measures of temperature and humidity. In generalised linear Poisson regression models, the daily number of hospital admissions for hypertension was considered to be the dependent variable and the daily TSP concentration the independent variable. Results TSP presented a lagged effect on hypertension admissions, which was first observed 1 day after a TSP increase and remained almost unchanged for the following 2 days. A 10 mu g/m(3) increase in the TSP 3 day moving average lagged in 1 day led to an increase in hypertension-related hospital admissions during the harvest period (12.5%, 95% CI 5.6% to 19.9%) that was almost 30% higher than during non-harvest periods (9.0%, 95% CI 4.0% to 14.3%). Conclusions Increases in TSP concentrations were associated with hypertension-related hospital admissions. Despite the benefits of reduced air pollution in urban cities achieved by using ethanol produced from sugar cane to power automobiles, areas where the sugar cane is produced and harvested were found to have increased public health risk.

Transformed generalized linear models

The estimation of data transformation is very useful to yield response variables satisfying closely a normal linear model, Generalized linear models enable the fitting of models to a wide range of data types. These models are based on exponential dispersion models. We propose a new class of transformed generalized linear models to extend the Box and Cox models and the generalized linear models. We use the generalized linear model framework to fit these models and discuss maximum likelihood estimation and inference. We give a simple formula to estimate the parameter that index the transformation of the response variable for a subclass of models. We also give a simple formula to estimate the rth moment of the original dependent variable. We explore the possibility of using these models to time series data to extend the generalized autoregressive moving average models discussed by Benjamin er al. [Generalized autoregressive moving average models. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 98, 214-223]. The usefulness of these models is illustrated in a Simulation study and in applications to three real data sets. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterization of organic matter in sediment cores of the Todos os Santos Bay, Bahia, Brazil, by elemental analysis and (13)C NMR

The impact of human activity on the sediments of Todos os Santos Bay in Brazil was evaluated by elemental analysis and (13)C Nuclear Magnetic Resonance ((13)C NMR). This article reports a study of six sediment cores collected at different depths and regions of Todos os Santos Bay. The elemental profiles of cores collected on the eastern side of Frades Island suggest an abrupt change in the sedimentation regime. Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) analysis corroborates this result. The range of depths of the cores corresponds to about 50 years ago, coinciding with the implantation of major onshore industrial projects in the region. Principal Component Analysis of the (13)C NMR spectra clearly differentiates sediment samples closer to the Subae estuary, which have high contents of terrestrial organic matter, from those closer to a local oil refinery. The results presented in this article illustrate several important aspects of environmental impact of human activity on this bay. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Eulerian Immersed Boundary Method for flow simulations over stationary and moving rigid bodies

The fluid flow over bodies with complex geometry has been the subject of research of many scientists and widely explored experimentally and numerically. The present study proposes an Eulerian Immersed Boundary Method for flows simulations over stationary or moving rigid bodies. The proposed method allows the use of Cartesians Meshes. Here, two-dimensional simulations of fluid flow over stationary and oscillating circular cylinders were used for verification and validation. Four different cases were explored: the flow over a stationary cylinder, the flow over a cylinder oscillating in the flow direction, the flow over a cylinder oscillating in the normal flow direction, and a cylinder with angular oscillation. The time integration was carried out by a classical 4th order Runge-Kutta scheme, with a time step of the same order of distance between two consecutive points in x direction. High-order compact finite difference schemes were used to calculate spatial derivatives. The drag and lift coefficients, the lock-in phenomenon and vorticity contour plots were used for the verification and validation of the proposed method. The extension of the current method allowing the study of a body with different geometry and three-dimensional simulations is straightforward. The results obtained show a good agreement with both numerical and experimental results, encouraging the use of the proposed method.

Effect of morphodynamics on annual average zonation pattern of benthic macrofauna of exposed sandy beaches in Santa Catarina, Brazil

This study investigated the effect of environmental factors on the annual average zonation pattern of benthic macrofauna of sub-aerial profile of three exposed sandy beaches of Santa Catarina with different morphodynamic characteristics. Sampling was carried out between March 2000 and March 2001, with monthly frequency on reflective and dissipative morphodynamic extremes and bimonthly frequency on the intermediate state. Results showed that macrobenthic zonation presented marked differences across the morphodynamic spectrum. The main differences observed from reflective to dissipative conditions were: a) increase in the number of species in lower zones of the beach; b) expansion of zones characterized by high water content of sediment and c) increase in the overlapping of zones, mainly on lower levels of the beach. Canonical Correspondence Analysis related these differences to distinctive cross-shore gradients in sediment moisture levels, sediment reworking and mean grain size that exist across the morphodynamic spectrum, showing that it is important to analyze these environmental factors in studies conducted to investigate zonation on microtidal exposed sandy beaches.

AVERAGE CONTINUOUS CONTROL OF PIECEWISE DETERMINISTIC MARKOV PROCESSES

This paper deals with the long run average continuous control problem of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) taking values in a general Borel space and with compact action space depending on the state variable. The control variable acts on the jump rate and transition measure of the PDMP, and the running and boundary costs are assumed to be positive but not necessarily bounded. Our first main result is to obtain an optimality equation for the long run average cost in terms of a discrete-time optimality equation related to the embedded Markov chain given by the postjump location of the PDMP. Our second main result guarantees the existence of a feedback measurable selector for the discrete-time optimality equation by establishing a connection between this equation and an integro-differential equation. Our final main result is to obtain some sufficient conditions for the existence of a solution for a discrete-time optimality inequality and an ordinary optimal feedback control for the long run average cost using the so-called vanishing discount approach. Two examples are presented illustrating the possible applications of the results developed in the paper.

Genetic analysis of average annual productivity of Nellore breeding cows (COWPROD)

With the aim of estimating the coefficient of heritability of average annual productivity of Nellore cows (COWPROD), a data set from 24,855 animals with known pedigree was analyzed. COWPROD is defined as the amount (in kilograms) of weaned calves produced yearly by one cow during her remaining time in herd ignoring a fixed period of 365 days. COWPROD was calculated regarding three standards: a) based on the post-weaning weight from the calves ignoring any kind of adjustment (COWPROD_NAJ), b) adjusted weight for the fixed effects (COWPROD_AJFIX) and c) adjusted weight for the fixed effects and for the genetic merit of the sire (COWPROD_AJFIN). The obtained heritabilities were 0.15, 0.15 and 0.16 for COWPROD_NAJ, COWPROD_AJFIX and COWPROD_AJFIN, respectively. A complete set composed of 105,158 COWPROD records on 130,740 animals in pedigree was also analyzed for predicting the genetic merit of all animals in the data set and for the calculation of the genetic, phenotypic and residual trends. Ranking correlation was high for the adjusted and non-adjusted data, yet, for some of the animals, the difference among the genetic values was large. This would be an indication that it would be better to work always with the adjusted weaning weights. The genetic trend was positive, but was of small magnitude (0.26% of the trait average) and the residual trend was negative as a consequence of the large intensification of the production system, which has been occurring in the last years in the farms studied. The phenotypic trend was also negative and intermediate between the genetic and the residual ones.

New constraints on the chemical evolution of the solar neighbourhood and Galactic disc(s) Improved astrophysical parameters for the Geneva-Copenhagen Survey

We present a re-analysis of the Geneva-Copenhagen survey, which benefits from the infrared flux method to improve the accuracy of the derived stellar effective temperatures and uses the latter to build a consistent and improved metallicity scale. Metallicities are calibrated on high-resolution spectroscopy and checked against four open clusters and a moving group, showing excellent consistency. The new temperature and metallicity scales provide a better match to theoretical isochrones, which are used for a Bayesian analysis of stellar ages. With respect to previous analyses, our stars are on average 100 K hotter and 0.1 dex more metal rich, which shift the peak of the metallicity distribution function around the solar value. From Stromgren photometry we are able to derive for the first time a proxy for [alpha/Fe] abundances, which enables us to perform a tentative dissection of the chemical thin and thick disc. We find evidence for the latter being composed of an old, mildly but systematically alpha-enhanced population that extends to super solar metallicities, in agreement with spectroscopic studies. Our revision offers the largest existing kinematically unbiased sample of the solar neighbourhood that contains full information on kinematics, metallicities, and ages and thus provides better constraints on the physical processes relevant in the build-up of the Milky Way disc, enabling a better understanding of the Sun in a Galactic context.

Dynamical Casimir effect for a massless scalar field between two concentric spherical shells with mixed boundary conditions

In this work we analyze the dynamical Casimir effect for a massless scalar field confined between two concentric spherical shells considering mixed boundary conditions. We thus generalize a previous result in literature [Phys. Rev. A 78, 032521 (2008)], where the same problem is approached for the field constrained to the Dirichlet-Dirichlet boundary conditions. A general expression for the average number of particle creation is deduced considering an arbitrary law of radial motion of the spherical shells. This expression is then applied to harmonic oscillations of the shells, and the number of particle production is analyzed and compared with the results previously obtained under Dirichlet-Dirichlet boundary conditions.

Dynamical Casimir effect for a massless scalar field between two concentric spherical shells

In this work we consider the dynamical Casimir effect for a massless scalar field-under Dirichlet boundary conditions-between two concentric spherical shells. We obtain a general expression for the average number of particle creation, for an arbitrary law of radial motion of the spherical shells, using two distinct methods: by computing the density operator of the system and by calculating the Bogoliubov coefficients. We apply our general expression to breathing modes: when only one of the shells oscillates and when both shells oscillate in or out of phase. Since our results were obtained in the framework of the perturbation theory, under resonant breathing modes they are restricted to a short-time approximation. We also analyze the number of particle production and compare it with the results for the case of plane geometry.

Intercepting moving targets: does memory from practice in a specific condition of target displacement affect movement timing?

This investigation aimed at assessing the extent to which memory from practice in a specific condition of target displacement modulates temporal errors and movement timing of interceptive movements. We compared two groups practicing with certainty of future target velocity either in unchanged target velocity or in target velocity decrease. Following practice, both experimental groups were probed in the situations of unchanged target velocity and target velocity decrease either under the context of certainty or uncertainty about target velocity. Results from practice showed similar improvement of temporal accuracy between groups, revealing that target velocity decrease did not disturb temporal movement organization when fully predictable. Analysis of temporal errors in the probing trials indicated that both groups had higher timing accuracy in velocity decrease in comparison with unchanged velocity. Effect of practice was detected by increased temporal accuracy of the velocity decrease group in situations of decreased velocity; a trend consistent with the expected effect of practice was observed for temporal errors in the unchanged velocity group and in movement initiation at a descriptive level. An additional point of theoretical interest was the fast adaptation in both groups to a target velocity pattern different from that practiced. These points are discussed under the perspective of integration of vision and motor control by means of an internal forward model of external motion.

Use of peripheral vision in the interception of moving targets

Use of peripheral vision to organize and reorganize an interceptive action was investigated in young adults. Temporal errors and kinematic variables were evaluated in the interception of a virtual moving target, in situations in which its initial velocity was kept unchanged or was unexpectedly decreased. Observation of target approach was made through continuous visual pursuit (focal vision) or keeping visual focus at the origin of the trajectory or at the contact spot (peripheral vision). Results showed that visual focus at the contact spot led to temporal errors similar to focal vision, although showing a distinct kinematic profile, while focus at the origin led to an impoverished performance

COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE SENSITIVITY OF DIABETIC LOWER EXTREMITIES WITH AND WITHOUT ULCERS USING THE PSSD (TM)

Introduction To determine and compare thresholds of cutaneous sensitivity of lower extremities in diabetic patients with an ulcer on only one lower extremity Methods and Materials The study group included 20 patients with mean age of 61 6 and average time with diabetes of 12 4 years All patients were previously tested using Semmes-Weinstein monofilament 5 07 Sensitivity was evaluated using the two point discrimination test and the PSSD (TM) (Pressure-Specified Sensory Device) in order to assess touch thresholds in a quantitative manner, in g/mm(2) Three skin areas were tested hallux pulp, dorsum of foot and medial heel, including four tests 1 point static, 1 point moving, 2 points static and 2 points moving Results Mean 2 point discrimination distance in mm was higher in feet with ulcers, but the difference between extremities was only statistically significant for the hallux. With the PSSD (TM), all patients had higher pressure thresholds in feet with ulcers when compared with feet without ulcers, in all tests, with statistical significance Conclusion The PSSD (TM) was able to differentiate levels of sensation between extremities with and without ulcers in diabetic patients, with statistical significance

Topological instability, average electronegativity difference and glass forming ability of amorphous alloys

In this paper, we report the remarkable agreement of the glass forming ability of binary alloys with a new criterion that combines the topological instability parameter (lambda) and the average electronegativity difference among the elements of an alloy, assuming both exert a synergetic effect. The best glass forming compositions for Zr-Cu and Ti-Ni systems are well predicted by this new approach. Although the new criterion needs further refinement, it is concluded that the proposed approach is a promising and simple tool to guide and reduce the tedious and labour intensive work to find good glass former compositions in metallic systems. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.