Prediction of the economic activity from the short and long-term interest rate differential: new evidences in Chile and the United States of America cases

The purpose of this work is to verify the stability of the relationship between real activity and interest rate spread. The test is based on Chen (1988) and Osorio and Galea (2006). The analysis is applied to Chile and the United States, from 1980 to 1999. In general, in both cases the relationship was statistically significant in early 80s, but a break point is found in both countries during that decades, suggesting that the relationship depends on the monetary rule follow by the Central Bank.

Use of an Inflatable Silicone Balloon Improves the Success Rate of Bladder Autoaugmentation at Long-Term Followup

Purpose: Most groups have reported disappointing results with autoaugmentation or detrusor myectomy for low capacity/compliance neuropathic bladders. Failure may be due to an ischemic diverticulum or mucosal shrinkage. We investigated whether a Silimed (R) silicone balloon placed in the bladder after autoaugmentation could prevent these problems, improving surgical results. Materials and Methods: We compared the results of standard bladder autoaugmentation in 12 children (group 1) with those in 10 (group 2) who underwent the same surgery using a bladder conformer. The conformer was a silicone balloon filled with saline that remained in the bladder for 2 weeks. All patients had a neuropathic bladder with poor capacity and compliance, resulting in urinary leakage between catheterizations. Preoperative and postoperative evaluation included a voiding diary, ultrasound, voiding cystourethrogram and urodynamics. Results: In group 1 only 1 patient became dry, 4 had little improvement in continence, 4 remained unchanged and 3 became worse. In group 2, 6 patients (60%) become continent without medication, 2 (20%) become continent with oxybutynin and 2 remained unchanged. Bladder capacity and compliance did not change significantly in group 1. However, in group 2 capacity changed from a mean of 140 to 240 ml and mean +/- SD compliance increased from 15.6 +/- 16.8 to 34.3 +/- 22.8 ml/cm H(2)O (p = 0.02). Conclusions: The inflatable balloon improved our long-term results of bladder auto-augmentation. A larger series may be necessary to confirm procedure efficacy and safety.

A hands-on approach for fitting long-term survival models under the GAMLSS framework

In many data sets from clinical studies there are patients insusceptible to the occurrence of the event of interest. Survival models which ignore this fact are generally inadequate. The main goal of this paper is to describe an application of the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) framework to the fitting of long-term survival models. in this work the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution. In this way, some well known models found in the literature are characterized as particular cases of our proposal. The model is conveniently parameterized in terms of the cured fraction, which is then linked to covariates. We explore the use of the gamlss package in R as a powerful tool for inference in long-term survival models. The procedure is illustrated with a numerical example. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian Long-term Survival Model Parametrized in the Cured Fraction

The main goal of this paper is to investigate a cure rate model that comprehends some well-known proposals found in the literature. In our work the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution. The model is conveniently reparametrized through the cured fraction, which is then linked to covariates by means of the logistic link. We explore the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to develop a Bayesian analysis in the proposed model. The procedure is illustrated with a numerical example.

On the unification of long-term survival models

In this paper we extend the long-term survival model proposed by Chen et al. [Chen, M.-H., Ibrahim, J.G., Sinha, D., 1999. A new Bayesian model for survival data with a surviving fraction. journal of the American Statistical Association 94, 909-919] via the generating function of a real sequence introduced by Feller [Feller, W., 1968. An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications, third ed., vol. 1, Wiley, New York]. A direct consequence of this new formulation is the unification of the long-term survival models proposed by Berkson and Gage [Berkson, J., Gage, R.P., 1952. Survival cure for cancer patients following treatment. journal of the American Statistical Association 47, 501-515] and Chen et al. (see citation above). Also, we show that the long-term survival function formulated in this paper satisfies the proportional hazards property if, and only if, the number of competing causes related to the occurrence of an event of interest follows a Poisson distribution. Furthermore, a more flexible model than the one proposed by Yin and Ibrahim [Yin, G., Ibrahim, J.G., 2005. Cure rate models: A unified approach. The Canadian journal of Statistics 33, 559-570] is introduced and, motivated by Feller`s results, a very useful competing index is defined. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Surface Liming and Zinc Availability in a Long-Term Experiment under No-Till System

No-till (NT) system with crop rotation is one of the most effective strategies to improve agricultural sustainability in tropical and subtropical regions. To control soil acidity in NT, lime is broadcast on the surface without incorporation. The increase in soil pH due to surface liming may decrease zinc (Zn) availability and its uptake by crops. A field experiment was performed in Parana State, Brazil, on a loamy, kaolinitic, thermic Typic Hapludox to evaluate Zn bioavailability in a NT system after surface liming and re-liming. Dolomitic lime was surface applied on the main plots in July 1993 at the rates of 0, 2, 4, and 6 Mg ha-1. In June 2000, the main plots were divided in two subplots to study of the effect of surface re-liming at the rates of 0 and 3 Mg ha-1. The cropping sequence was soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merrill] (2001-2 and 2002-3), wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) (2003), soybean (2003-4), corn (Zea mays L.) (2004-5), and soybean (2005-6). Soil samples were collected at the following depths: 0-0.05, 0.05-0.10, and 0.10-0.20m, 10 years after surface liming and 3 years after surface re-liming. Soil Zn levels were extracted by four extractants: (i) 0.005molL-1 diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA) + 0.1molL-1 triethanolamine (TEA) + 0.01molL-1 calcium chloride (CaCl2) solution at pH7.3 (DTPA-TEA), (ii) 0.1molL-1 hydrochloric acid (HCl) solution, (iii) Mehlich 1 solution, and (iv) Mehlich 3 solution. Zinc concentrations in leaves and grains of soybean, wheat, and corn were also determined. Soil pH (0.01molL-1 CaCl2 suspension) varied from 4.4 to 6.1, at the 0- to 0.05-m depth, from 4.2 to 5.3 at the 0.05- to 0.10-m depth, and from 4.2 to 4.8 at the 0.10- to 0.20-m depth, after liming and re-liming. Zinc concentrations evaluated by DTPA-TEA, 0.1molL-1 HCl, Mehlich 1, and Mehlich 3 solutions were not changed as a result of lime rate application. Re-liming increased Zn concentrations extracted by 0.1molL-1 HCl at 0-0.05m deep and by DTPA-TEA at 0.05-0.10m deep. Surface-applied lime promoted a decrease in Zn concentrations of the crops, mainly in grains, because of increased soil pH at the surface layers. Regardless of the liming treatments, levels of Zn were sufficient to soybean, wheat, and corn nutrition under NT.

Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal?

We model and calibrate the arguments in favor and against short-term and long-term debt. These arguments broadly include: maturity premium, sustainability, and service smoothing. We use a dynamic-equilibrium model with tax distortions and government outlays uncertainty, and model maturity as the fraction of debt that needs to be rolled over every period. In the model, the benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. We then calibrate our artificial economy and solve for the optimal debt maturity for Brazil as an example of a developing country and the US as an example of a mature economy. We obtain that the calibrated costs from defaulting on long-term debt more than offset costs associated with short-term debt. Therefore, short-term debt implies higher welfare levels.

A randomized double-blind placebo-controlled study of the long-term efficacy and safety of diethylpropion in the treatment of obese subjects

Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of diethylpropion on a long-term basis, with emphasis in cardiovascular and psychiatric safety aspects. Design: Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial Measurements: Following a 2-week screening period, 69 obese healthy adults received a hypocaloric diet and were randomized to diethylpropion 50 mg BID (n = 37) or placebo (n = 32) for 6 months. After this period, all participants received diethylpropion in an open-label extension for an additional 6 months. The primary outcome was percentage change in body weight. Electrocardiogram (ECG), echocardiography and clinical chemistry were performed at baseline and every 6 months. Psychiatric evaluation and application of Hamilton rating scales for depression and anxiety were also performed by experienced psychiatrists at baseline and every 3 months. Results: After 6 months, the diethylpropion group lost an average of 9.8% (s.d. 6.9%) of initial body weight vs 3.2% (3.7%) in the placebo group (P < 0.0001). From baseline to month 12, the mean weight loss produced by diethylpropion was 10.6% (8.3%). Participants in the placebo group who were switched to diethylpropion after 6 months lost an average of 7.0% (7.7%) of initial body weight. The difference between groups at month 12 was not significant (P = 0.07). No differences in blood pressure, pulse rate, ECG and psychiatric evaluation were observed. Dry mouth and insomnia were the most frequent adverse events. Conclusion: Diethylpropion plus diet produced sustained and clinically significant weight loss over 1 year. It seems to be safe in relation to cardiovascular and psychiatric aspects in a well-selected population. International Journal of Obesity (2009) 33, 857-865; doi: 10.1038/ijo.2009.124; published online 30 June 2009

Acute effects of continuous and interval aerobic exercise on 24-h ambulatory blood pressure in long-term treated hypertensive patients

Background: Despite antihypertensive therapy, it is difficult to maintain optimal systemic blood pressure (BP) values in hypertensive patients (HPT). Exercise may reduce BP in untreated HPT. However, evidence regarding its effect in long-term antihypertensive therapy is lacking. Our purpose was to evaluate the acute effects of 40-minute continuous (CE) or interval exercise (IE) using cycle ergometers on BP in long-term treated HPT. Methods: Fifty-two treated HPT were randomized to CE (n=26) or IE (n=26) protocols. CE was performed at 60% of reserve heart rate (HR). IE alternated consecutively 2 min at 50% reserve HR with 1 min at 80%. Two 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring were made after exercise (postexercise) or a nonexercise control period (control) in random order. Results: CE reduced mean 24-h systolic (S) BP (2.6 +/- 6.6 mm Hg, p-0.05) and diastolic (D) BP (2.3 +/- 4.6, p-0.01), and nighttime SBP (4.8 +/- 6.4, p < 0.001) and DBP (4.6 +/- 5.2 mm Hg, p-0.001). IE reduced 24-h SBP (2.8 +/- 6.5, p-0.03) and nighttime SBP (3.4 +/- 7.2, p-0.02), and tended to reduce nighttime DBP (p=0.06). Greater reductions occurred in higher BP levels. Percentage of normal ambulatory BP values increased after CE (24-h: 42% to 54%; daytime: 42% to 61%; nighttime: 61% to 69%) and IE (24-h: 31% to 46%; daytime: 54% to 61%; nighttime: 46% to 69%). Conclusion: CE and IE reduced ambulatory BP in treated HPT, increasing the number of patients reaching normal ambulatory BP values. These effects suggest that continuous and interval aerobic exercise may have a role in BP management in treated HPT. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Results of Percutaneous Bilioenteric Anastomotic Stricture Treatment in Liver-Transplanted Children

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the mid- and long-term results of percutaneous transhepatic cholangiography (PTC) and biliary drainage in children with isolated bilioenteric anastomotic stenosis (BAS) after pediatric liver transplantation. Sixty-four children underwent PTC from March 1993 to May 2008. Nineteen cholangiograms were normal; 10 showed intrahepatic biliary stenosis and BAS, and 35 showed isolated BAS. Cadaveric grafts were used in 19 and living donor grafts in 16 patients. Four patients received a whole liver, and 31 patients received a left lobe or left lateral segment. Roux-en-Y hepaticojejunostomy was performed in all patients. Indication for PTC was based on clinical, laboratory, and histopathologic findings. In patients with isolated BAS, dilation and biliary catheter placement, with changes every 2 months, were performed. Patients were separated into 4 groups according to number of treatment sessions required. The drainage catheter was removed if cholangiogram showed no significant residual stenosis and normal biliary emptying time after a minimum of 6 months. The relationship between risk factors (recipient`s weight < 10 kg, previous exposure to Cytomegalovirus, donor-recipient sex and weight relations, autoimmune disease as indication for transplantion, previous Kasai`s surgery, use of reduced liver grafts, chronic or acute rejection occurrence) and treatment was evaluated. Before PTC, fever was observed in 46%, biliary dilation in 23%, increased bilirubin in 57%, and increased gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) in 100% of patients. In the group with BAS, 24 of 35 (69%) patients had histopathologic findings of cholestasis as did 9 of 19 (47%) patients in the group with normal PTC. Of the 35 patients, 23 (65.7%) needed 1 (group I), 7 needed 2 (group II), 4 needed 3 (group III), and 1 needed 4 treatment sessions (group IV). The best results were observed after 1 treatment session, and the mean duration of catheter placement and replacement was 10 months. The primary patency rate was 61.2%, and the recurrence rate was 34.3% (group I). Seven patients (7 of 35; 20%) had their stricture treated with a second treatment session (group II). The average drainage time in group II was 24 months. During a period > 20 months, 4 patients (4 of 35; 11.4%) required 1 additional treatment session (group III), and 1 patient (1 of 35; 2.9%) had a catheter placed at the end of the study period (group IV). Drainage time in group I was significantly shorter than those in groups II, III, and IV (p < 0.05). There was no statistically significant relation between therapeutic response and the selected risk factors (p > 0.05). The majority of complications, such as catheter displacement and leakage, were classified as minor; however, 2 patients (5.7%) with hemobilia were noted. Complications increased according to the need for reintervention. In conclusion, balloon dilation and percutaneous drainage placement is safe and effective, and it has long-term patency for children with BAS after liver transplantation. Because of prolonged treatment time, reintervention may be necessary, thereby increasing the complication rate. Balloon dilation and percutaneous drainage placement should be considered as the first treatment option because of its minimally invasive nature.

Peritonectomy for Peritoneal Carcinomatosis: Long-Term Outcomes from a Single Brazilian Institution

The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term outcomes of a single institution, Hospital Sirio-Libanes in SA o pound Paulo, Brazil, regarding the treatment of peritoneal carcinomatosis. Between October 2002 and October 2006, 46 consecutive patients were treated with radical cytoreduction and hyperthermic peritoneal chemotherapy. There were 21 patients with peritoneal surface malignancy (PSM) from colorectal origin (among whom 8 had an appendiceal primary), 15 with ovarian carcinomas, 2 with primary peritoneal mesotheliomas, and 8 with other cancers. The median age was 49 years (range 18-77 years). All patients were followed for a median of 20 months. Demographic data, tumor histology, the peritoneal carcinomatosis index (PCI), operative procedures (extension of resection, lymphadenectomy), and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) characteristics (drugs, temperature, duration) were prospectively recorded. Perioperative mortality and morbidity and the long-term outcome were assessed. Complete cytoreduction was achieved in 45 patients. The median PCI was 11, and the mean operating time was 17 h. There were no procedure-related deaths, but major morbidity was observed in 52% and included fistulas, abscesses, and hematologic complications. The overall Kaplan-Meier 4-year estimated survival was 56%. Among patients with PSM from colorectal carcinoma, the estimated 3-year survival was 70%. Nine (42%) patients had a recurrence, three with peritoneal disease. The median disease-free-interval was 16 months. The ovarian cancer patients had an estimated 4-year survival rate of 75% and median disease-free survival duration of 21 months. Cytoreductive surgery with HIPEC may improve survival of selected patients with peritoneal carcinomatosis, with acceptable morbidity.

Midterm and long-term results of percutaneous endovascular treatment of venous outflow obstruction after pediatric liver transplantation

PURPOSE: To evaluate retrospectively the midterm and long-term results of percutaneous endovascular treatment of venous outflow obstruction after pediatric liver transplantation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: During a 9-year period, 18 children with obstruction of a hepatic vein (HV) or inferior vena cava (IVC) anastomosis underwent percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) with balloon dilation or stent placement in case of PTA failure after liver transplantation. Patients` body weights ranged from 7.7 kg to 42.6 kg (mean, 18.8 kg +/- 9). Potential predictors of patency were compared between balloon dilation and stent placement groups. RESULTS: Forty-two procedures were performed (range, 1-11 per patient; mean, 2). Technical and initial clinical success were achieved in all cases. Major complications included one case of pulmonary artery stent embolization and one case of hemothorax. Three children (25%) with HV obstruction were treated with PTA and nine (75%) were treated with stent placement. Three children with IVC obstruction (75%) were treated with PTA and one (25%) was treated with a stent. There were two children with simultaneous obstruction at the HV and IVC; one was treated with PTA and the other with a stent. Cases of isolated HV stenosis have a higher probability of patency with balloon-expandable stent treatment compared with balloon dilation (P < .05). Follow-up time ranged from 7 days to 9 years (mean, 42 months +/- 31), and the primary assisted patency rate was 100% when stent placement was performed among the first three procedures. CONCLUSIONS: In cases of venous outflow obstruction resulting from HV and/or IVC lesions after pediatric liver transplantation, percutaneous endovascular treatment with balloon dilation or stent placement is a safe and effective alternative treatment that results in long-term patency.

Salvage of long-term central venous catheters during an outbreak of Pseudomonas putida and Stenotrophomonas maltophilia infections associated with contaminated heparin catheter-lock solution

objective. To describe the management of patients with long-term central venous catheters (CVCs) during an outbreak of infection due to Pseudomonas putida and Stenotrophomonas maltophilia associated with contaminated heparin catheter-lock solution. design. Descriptive study. setting. Private, 250-bed tertiary-care hospital. methods. In March 2003, we identified 2 febrile cancer patients with P. putida bacteremia. Over 2 days, 7 cases of bacteremia were identified; lots of syringes prefilled with heparin catheter-lock solution, supplied by a compounding pharmacy, were recalled and samples were cultured. More cases of bacteremia appeared during the following days, and any patient who had had a catheter lock infused with the suspect solution was asked to provide blood samples for culture, even if the patient was asymptomatic. Isolates that were recovered from culture were typed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. Antimicrobial salvage treatment of long-term CVCs was attempted. results. A total of 154 patients had had their catheter lock infused with solution from the lots that were suspected of being contaminated. Only 48 of these patients had CVCs. By day 7 of the outbreak, 18 of these patients had become symptomatic. Twenty-six of the remaining 30 asymptomatic patients then also provided blood samples for culture, 10 of whom developed fever shortly after samples were collected. Thirty-two patients were identified who had P. putida bacteremia; 9 also had infection due to S. maltophilia. Samples from 1 of the 3 lots of prefilled syringes in use at the time of the outbreak also grew P. putida on culture. Molecular typing identified 3 different clones of P. putida from patients and heparin catheter-lock solution, and 1 clone of S. maltophilia. A total of 27 patients received antimicrobial therapy regimens, some of which included decontamination of the catheter lock with anti- infective lock solution. Of 27 patients, 19 (70%) retained their long-term CVC during the 6-month follow-up period. conclusions. To our knowledge, this is one of the largest prospective experiences in the management of bloodstream infection associated with long-term CVCs. The infections were caused by gram-negative bacilli and were managed without catheter removal, with a high response rate. We emphasize the risks of using intravenous formulations of medications supplied by compounding pharmacies that produce large quantities of drugs.

Long-term outcomes of radical cystectomy with preservation of prostatic capsule

We report our results of orthotopic ileal neobladder after radical cystectomy with prostatic adenomectomy with regard to urinary continence, sexual outcome and disease control. Between March 2003 and July 2004, 22 men with bladder transitional cell carcinoma (mean age 65.0) were analyzed. They underwent radical cystectomy with prostatic adenomectomy with preservation of the prostatic capsule, seminal vesicles and orthotopic ileal neobladder. Urinary continence was assessed after 2 days, 2 months, 6 months and 1 year. Preservation of sexual function was defined as the ability to have sexual intercourse and was assessed after 2-, 6-, and 12-months postoperatively. Overall survival and cancer-specific survival were assessed. Median postoperative follow-up was 60 months. Daytime and nighttime urinary continence after 48 h was 47 and 14%, respectively. After 2, 6 and 12 months, these rates were 74 and 16%, 85 and 26%, and 94 and 31%, respectively. Sexual intercourse was achieved in 69% of patients. Overall survival rate was 68%, and cancer-specific survival rate was 73%. Overall survival rates according to pathologic stage for pT0, pT1, pT2 and pT3 were 100, 60, 71 and 57%, and cancer-specific survival were 100, 80, 71 and 57%, respectively. Urinary continence and sexual function achieved by radical cystectomy with prostatic adenomectomy with orthotopic ileal neobladder seem to be similar to those achieved by the conventional technique with satisfactory oncologic results.

Obstetric Outcome in Pregnant Women on Long-term Dialysis: A Case Series

Background: Although still uncommon, pregnancy frequency in women on maintenance hemodialysis therapy has increased in the past 20 years. Most published reports suggest that intensified hemodialysis regimens result in better pregnancy outcomes. The small number of patients investigated in all reported series is the main limitation of the available studies. Study Design: Retrospective case series. Setting & Participants: Data for all pregnancies that occurred in 1988-2008 in women undergoing maintenance hemodialysis (52 pregnancies) at the Sao Paulo University Medical School (Sao Paulo, Brazil). Outcomes & Measurements: We analyzed maternal and fetal outcomes of 52 pregnancies, as well as their relationship with various clinical, laboratory, and hemodialysis parameters, such as pre-eclampsia, pregnancy before or after dialysis therapy, hemodialysis dose, polyhydramnios, anemia, and predialysis serum urea level. In addition, logistic regression models for a composite adverse fetal outcome (perinatal death or extremely premature delivery) and linear regression models for birth weight were built. Results: 87% overall rate of successful delivery, with a mean gestational age of 32.7 +/- 3.1 weeks. Pre-eclampsia was associated with a poor prognosis compared with pregnancies without pre-eclampsia: a successful delivery rate of 60% versus 92.9% (P = 0.02), extremely premature delivery rate of 77.8% versus 3.3% (P = 0.001), lower gestational age (P = 0.001), and birth weight (P = 0.001). Patients with an adverse composite fetal outcome had a higher frequency of pre-eclampsia (P = 0.001), lower frequency of polyhydramnios (P = 0.03), lower third-trimester hematocrit (P = 0.03), and higher predialysis serum urea level (P = 0.03). The same results were seen for birth weight. Limitations: Retrospective data analysis. The absence of creatinine clearance measurements did not allow evaluation of the impact of residual renal function on fetal outcome. Conclusions: Outcomes of pregnancy in women undergoing hemodialysis often are good. Preeclampsia, third-trimester hematocrit, polyhydramnios, and predialysis serum urea level are important variables associated with fetal outcome and birth weight. Am J Kidney Dis 56:77-85. (C) 2010 by the National Kidney Foundation, Inc.Inc