Is the unfolding of the group discussion off-pattern? Improving coordination support in educational forums using mobile devices

A forum is a valuable tool to foster reflection in an in-depth discussion; however, it forces the course mediator to continually pay close attention in order to coordinate learners` activities. Moreover, monitoring a forum is time consuming given that it is impossible to know in advance when new messages are going to be posted. Additionally, a forum may be inactive for a long period and suddenly receive a burst of messages forcing forum mediators to frequently log on in order to know how the discussion is unfolding to intervene whenever it is necessary. Mediators also need to deal with a large amount of messages to identify off-pattern situations. This work presents a piece of action research that investigates how to improve coordination support in a forum using mobile devices for mitigating mediator`s difficulties in following the status of a forum. Based on summarized information extracted from message meta-data, mediators consult visual information summaries on PDAs and receive textual notifications in their mobile phone. This investigation revealed that mediators used the mobile-based coordination support to keep informed on what is taking place within the forum without the need to log on their desktop computer. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On estimation and influence diagnostics for log-Birnbaum-Saunders Student-t regression models: Full Bayesian analysis

The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian approach for log-Birnbaum-Saunders Student-t regression models under right-censored survival data. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to develop a Bayesian procedure for the considered model. In order to attenuate the influence of the outlying observations on the parameter estimates, we present in this paper Birnbaum-Saunders models in which a Student-t distribution is assumed to explain the cumulative damage. Also, some discussions on the model selection to compare the fitted models are given and case deletion influence diagnostics are developed for the joint posterior distribution based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence. The developed procedures are illustrated with a real data set. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The log-exponentiated Weibull regression model for interval-censored data

In interval-censored survival data, the event of interest is not observed exactly but is only known to occur within some time interval. Such data appear very frequently. In this paper, we are concerned only with parametric forms, and so a location-scale regression model based on the exponentiated Weibull distribution is proposed for modeling interval-censored data. We show that the proposed log-exponentiated Weibull regression model for interval-censored data represents a parametric family of models that include other regression models that are broadly used in lifetime data analysis. Assuming the use of interval-censored data, we employ a frequentist analysis, a jackknife estimator, a parametric bootstrap and a Bayesian analysis for the parameters of the proposed model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influences on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to assess global influences. Furthermore, for different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulations are performed; in addition, the empirical distribution of some modified residuals are displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended to a modified deviance residual in log-exponentiated Weibull regression models for interval-censored data. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Generalized log-gamma regression models with cure fraction

In this paper, the generalized log-gamma regression model is modified to allow the possibility that long-term survivors may be present in the data. This modification leads to a generalized log-gamma regression model with a cure rate, encompassing, as special cases, the log-exponential, log-Weibull and log-normal regression models with a cure rate typically used to model such data. The models attempt to simultaneously estimate the effects of explanatory variables on the timing acceleration/deceleration of a given event and the surviving fraction, that is, the proportion of the population for which the event never occurs. The normal curvatures of local influence are derived under some usual perturbation schemes and two martingale-type residuals are proposed to assess departures from the generalized log-gamma error assumption as well as to detect outlying observations. Finally, a data set from the medical area is analyzed.

Log-Burr XII regression models with censored data

In survival analysis applications, the failure rate function may frequently present a unimodal shape. In such case, the log-normal or log-logistic distributions are used. In this paper, we shall be concerned only with parametric forms, so a location-scale regression model based on the Burr XII distribution is proposed for modeling data with a unimodal failure rate function as an alternative to the log-logistic regression model. Assuming censored data, we consider a classic analysis, a Bayesian analysis and a jackknife estimator for the parameters of the proposed model. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the log-logistic and log-Burr XII regression models. Besides, we use sensitivity analysis to detect influential or outlying observations, and residual analysis is used to check the assumptions in the model. Finally, we analyze a real data set under log-Buff XII regression models. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Deviance residuals in generalised log-gamma regression models with censored observations

In this article, we compare three residuals based on the deviance component in generalised log-gamma regression models with censored observations. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and the empirical distribution of each residual is displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. For all cases studied, the empirical distributions of the proposed residuals are in general symmetric around zero, but only a martingale-type residual presented negligible kurtosis for the majority of the cases studied. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended for the martingale-type residual in generalised log-gamma regression models with censored data. A lifetime data set is analysed under log-gamma regression models and a model checking based on the martingale-type residual is performed.

Missing data mechanisms and their implications on the analysis of categorical data

We review some issues related to the implications of different missing data mechanisms on statistical inference for contingency tables and consider simulation studies to compare the results obtained under such models to those where the units with missing data are disregarded. We confirm that although, in general, analyses under the correct missing at random and missing completely at random models are more efficient even for small sample sizes, there are exceptions where they may not improve the results obtained by ignoring the partially classified data. We show that under the missing not at random (MNAR) model, estimates on the boundary of the parameter space as well as lack of identifiability of the parameters of saturated models may be associated with undesirable asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators and likelihood ratio tests; even in standard cases the bias of the estimators may be low only for very large samples. We also show that the probability of a boundary solution obtained under the correct MNAR model may be large even for large samples and that, consequently, we may not always conclude that a MNAR model is misspecified because the estimate is on the boundary of the parameter space.

The log-bimodal-skew-normal model. A geochemical application

The main objective of this paper is to study a logarithm extension of the bimodal skew normal model introduced by Elal-Olivero et al. [1]. The model can then be seen as an alternative to the log-normal model typically used for fitting positive data. We study some basic properties such as the distribution function and moments, and discuss maximum likelihood for parameter estimation. We report results of an application to a real data set related to nickel concentration in soil samples. Model fitting comparison with several alternative models indicates that the model proposed presents the best fit and so it can be quite useful in real applications for chemical data on substance concentration. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Solvatochromism in Binary Mixtures: First Report on a Solvation Free Energy Relationship between Solvent Exchange Equilibrium Constants and the Properties of the Medium

We have employed UV-vis spectroscopy in order to investigate details of the solvation of six solvatochromic indicators, hereafter designated as ""probes"", namely, 2,6-diphenyl-4-(2,4,6-triphenylpyridinium-1-yl) phenolate (RB); 4-[(E)-2-(1-methylpyridinium-4-yl)ethenyl] phenolate, MePM; 1-methylquinolinium-8-olate, QB; 2-bromo-4-[(E)-2-(1-methylpyridinium-4-yl)ethenyl] phenolate, MePMBr, 2,6-dichloro-4-(2,4,6-triphenylpyridinium-1-yl) phenolate (WB); and 2,6-dibromo-4-[(E)-2-(1-methylpyridinium-4-yl)ethenyl] phenolate, MePMBr,, respectively. These can be divided into three pairs, each includes two probes of similar pK(a) in water and different lipophilicity. Solvation has been studied in binary mixtures, BMs, of water, W, with 12 protic organic solvents, S, including mono- and bifunctional alcohols (2-alkoxyethanoles, unsaturated and chlorinated alcohols). Each medium was treated as a mixture of S, W, and a complex solvent, S-W, formed by hydrogen bonding. Values of lambda(max) (of the probe intramolecular charge transfer) were converted into empirical polarity scales, E(T)(probe) in kcal/mol, whose values were correlated with the effective mole fraction of water in the medium, chi w(effective). This correlation furnished three equilibrium constants for the exchange of solvents in the probe solvation shell; phi(W/S) (W substitutes S): phi(S-W/W) (S-W substitutes W), and phi(S-W/S) (S-W substitutes S), respectively. The values of these constants depend on the physicochemical properties of the probe and the medium. We tested, for the first time, the applicability of a new solvation free energy relationship: phi = constant + a alpha(BM) + b beta(BM) + s(pi*(BM) + d delta) + p log P(BM), where a, b, s, and p are regression coefficients alpha(BM), beta(BM), and pi*(BM) are solvatochromic parameters of the BM, delta is a correction term for pi*, and log P is an empirical scale of lipophilicity. Correlations were carried out with two-, three-, and four-medium descriptors. In all cases, three descriptors gave satisfactory correlations; use of four parameters gave only a marginal increase of the goodness of fit. For phi(W/S), the most important descriptor was found to be the lipophilicity of the medium; for phi(S-W/W) and phi(S-W/S), solvent basicity is either statistically relevant or is the most important descriptor. These responses are different from those of E(T)(probe) of many solvatochromic indicators in pure solvents, where the importance of solvent basicity is usually marginal, and can be neglected.

Ion pair stabilization effects on a series of procaine structural analogs

In this work, a series of 10 structural procaine analogs have been synthesized in order to investigate the structural features affecting the stability of ion pair formation and its influence on the lipophilicity of ionizable compounds. The structural variation within this series was focused on the terminal nitrogen substituents and on the intermediate chain linkage nature. The hydrophobic parameters log P(n) and log P(i) (partition coefficient of the neutral and ionic species, respectively), as well as the ionization constants pK(a) and pK(a)(oct), were obtained from log D-pH profiles measured at pH values ranging from 2 to 12. The difference between log P(i) and log P(n) values (i.e. difflog P) of each prepared compound was considered a measure of the stability of ion pair formation. In this set, the difflog P values varied nearly over one log unit, ranging from -2.40 to -3.37. It has been observed that the presence of hydrogen bonding groups (especially donor) and low steric hindrance around the terminal amine ionizable group increases the relative lipophilicity of the ionic species as compared to the corresponding neutral species. These results were interpreted as due to the increased stability of ion pairs of the compounds bearing these structural features. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.