22 resultados para latent variables

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo (BDPI/USP)


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It is known that patients may cease participating in a longitudinal study and become lost to follow-up. The objective of this article is to present a Bayesian model to estimate the malaria transition probabilities considering individuals lost to follow-up. We consider a homogeneous population, and it is assumed that the considered period of time is small enough to avoid two or more transitions from one state of health to another. The proposed model is based on a Gibbs sampling algorithm that uses information of lost to follow-up at the end of the longitudinal study. To simulate the unknown number of individuals with positive and negative states of malaria at the end of the study and lost to follow-up, two latent variables were introduced in the model. We used a real data set and a simulated data to illustrate the application of the methodology. The proposed model showed a good fit to these data sets, and the algorithm did not show problems of convergence or lack of identifiability. We conclude that the proposed model is a good alternative to estimate probabilities of transitions from one state of health to the other in studies with low adherence to follow-up.

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In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian analysis for survival multivariate data in the presence of a covariate vector and censored observations. Different ""frailties"" or latent variables are considered to capture the correlation among the survival times for the same individual. We assume Weibull or generalized Gamma distributions considering right censored lifetime data. We develop the Bayesian analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

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Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is interest in studying latent variables. These latent variables are directly considered in the Item Response Models (IRM) and they are usually called latent traits. A usual assumption for parameter estimation of the IRM, considering one group of examinees, is to assume that the latent traits are random variables which follow a standard normal distribution. However, many works suggest that this assumption does not apply in many cases. Furthermore, when this assumption does not hold, the parameter estimates tend to be biased and misleading inference can be obtained. Therefore, it is important to model the distribution of the latent traits properly. In this paper we present an alternative latent traits modeling based on the so-called skew-normal distribution; see Genton (2004). We used the centred parameterization, which was proposed by Azzalini (1985). This approach ensures the model identifiability as pointed out by Azevedo et al. (2009b). Also, a Metropolis Hastings within Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm was built for parameter estimation by using an augmented data approach. A simulation study was performed in order to assess the parameter recovery in the proposed model and the estimation method, and the effect of the asymmetry level of the latent traits distribution on the parameter estimation. Also, a comparison of our approach with other estimation methods (which consider the assumption of symmetric normality for the latent traits distribution) was considered. The results indicated that our proposed algorithm recovers properly all parameters. Specifically, the greater the asymmetry level, the better the performance of our approach compared with other approaches, mainly in the presence of small sample sizes (number of examinees). Furthermore, we analyzed a real data set which presents indication of asymmetry concerning the latent traits distribution. The results obtained by using our approach confirmed the presence of strong negative asymmetry of the latent traits distribution. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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We review several asymmetrical links for binary regression models and present a unified approach for two skew-probit links proposed in the literature. Moreover, under skew-probit link, conditions for the existence of the ML estimators and the posterior distribution under improper priors are established. The framework proposed here considers two sets of latent variables which are helpful to implement the Bayesian MCMC approach. A simulation study to criteria for models comparison is conducted and two applications are made. Using different Bayesian criteria we show that, for these data sets, the skew-probit links are better than alternative links proposed in the literature.

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Objective: To estimate the prevalence of inadequate nutrient intake among adolescents and the association between socio-economic variables and nutritional status. Design: Cross-sectional study with a population-based sample. Settings: The usual nutrient intake distribution was estimated using the Iowa State University method. The Estimated Average Requirement cut-off point method was used to determine the proportion of adolescents with inadequate intake for each nutrient, according to sex, income, parental educational level and nutritional status. Subjects: Twenty-four-hour dietary recalls were applied in 525 male and female Brazilian adolescents aged 14-18 years. Results: The highest prevalence of inadequate nutrient intake was observed for vitamin E (99% in both sexes). For male and female adolescents, the prevalence of inadequate intake was: Mg, 89% and 84%; vitamin A, 78% and 71 %; vitamin C, 79% and 53%; and vitamin B(6), 21% and 33%, respectively. The prevalence of inadequate intake for niacin, thiamin, riboflavin, Se, Cu and vitamin B(12) was <15 %. Individuals in the lower income and lower parental educational level strata had the highest risk of having inadequate intake for P, riboflavin and vitamins A, B(6) and B(12). Compared with non-overweight individuals, overweight individuals had a higher risk of inadequate intake for Mg, vitamin A, P, thiamin and riboflavin. Conclusions: The present study found a high prevalence of inadequate intake of nutrients that are recognised as being protective against chronic diseases. Adolescents in the lower income and lower parental educational level strata were less likely to have their nutrient intake requirements met.

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Background: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a frequent respiratory disturbance in preterm newborns. Preceding investigations evaluated chronic physiotherapy effects on newborns with different lung diseases; however, no study analyzed acute physiotherapy treatment on premature newborns with ARDS. In this study we aimed to evaluate the acute effects of chest and motor physiotherapy treatment on hemodynamic variables in preterm newborns with ARDS. Methods: We evaluated heart rate (HR), respiratory rate (RR), systolic (SAP), mean (MAP) and diastolic arterial pressure (DAP), temperature and oxygen saturation (SO(2)%) in 44 newborns with ARDS. We compared all variables between six periods in one day: before first physiotherapy treatment vs. after first physiotherapy treatment vs. before second physiotherapy treatment vs. after second physiotherapy treatment vs. before third physiotherapy treatment vs. after third physiotherapy treatment. Variables were measured 2 minutes before and 5 minutes after each physiotherapy session. We applied Anova one way followed by post hoc Bonferroni test. Results: HR (147.5 +/- 9.5 bpm vs. 137.7 +/- 9.3 bpm; p<0.001), RR (45.5 +/- 8.7cpm vs. 41.5 +/- 6.7 cpm; p=0.001), SAP (70.3 +/- 10.4 mmHg vs. 60.1 +/- 7.1 mmHg; p=0.001) and MAP (55.7 +/- 10 mmHg vs. 46 +/- 6.6 mmHg; p=0.001) were significantly reduced after the third physiotherapy treatment compared to before the first session. There were no significant changes regarding temperature, DAP and SO(2) %. Conclusion: Chest and motor physiotherapy acutely improves HR, RR, SAP, MAP and SO(2) % in newborns with ARDS.

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A Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) 10-year (1990-1999) simulation over southwestern South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) is evaluated to assess the mean climatology and the simulation errors of turbulent fluxes over the sea. Moreover, the relationship between these fluxes and the rainfall over some cyclogenetic areas is also analyzed. The RegCM3 results are validated using some reanalyses datasets (ERA40, R2, GPCP and WHOI). The summer and winter spatial patterns of latent and sensible heat fluxes simulated by the RegCM3 are in agreement with the reanalyses (WHOI, R2 and ERA40). They show large latent heat fluxes exchange in the subtropical SAO and at higher latitudes in the warm waters of Brazil Current. In particular, the magnitude of RegCM3 latent heat fluxes is similar to the WHOI, which is probably related to two factors: (a) small specific humidity bias, and (b) the RegCM3 flux algorithm. In contrast, the RegCM3 presents large overestimation of sensible heat flux, though it simulates well their spatial pattern. This simulation error is associated with the RegCM3 underestimation of the 2-m air temperature. In southwestern SAO, in three known cyclogenetic areas, the reanalyses and the RegCM3 show the existence of different physical mechanisms that control the annual cycles of latent/sensible heating and rainfall. It is shown that over the eastern coast of Uruguay (35A degrees-43A degrees S) and the southeastern coast of Argentina (44A degrees-52A degrees S) the sea-air moisture and heat exchange play an important role to control the annual cycle of precipitation. This does not happen on the south/southeastern coast of Brazil.

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We have developed a spectrum synthesis method for modeling the ultraviolet (UV) emission from the accretion disk from cataclysmic variables (CVs). The disk is separated into concentric rings, with an internal structure from the Wade & Hubeny disk-atmosphere models. For each ring, a wind atmosphere is calculated in the comoving frame with a vertical velocity structure obtained from a solution of the Euler equation. Using simple assumptions, regarding rotation and the wind streamlines, these one-dimensional models are combined into a single 2.5-dimensional model for which we compute synthetic spectra. We find that the resulting line and continuum behavior as a function of the orbital inclination is consistent with the observations, and verify that the accretion rate affects the wind temperature, leading to corresponding trends in the intensity of UV lines. In general, we also find that the primary mass has a strong effect on the P Cygni absorption profiles, the synthetic emission line profiles are strongly sensitive to the wind temperature structure, and an increase in the mass-loss rate enhances the resonance line intensities. Synthetic spectra were compared with UV data for two high orbital inclination nova-like CVs-RW Tri and V347 Pup. We needed to include disk regions with arbitrary enhanced mass loss to reproduce reasonably well widths and line profiles. This fact and a lack of flux in some high ionization lines may be the signature of the presence of density-enhanced regions in the wind, or alternatively, may result from inadequacies in some of our simplifying assumptions.

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Both continuum and emission line flickering are phenomena directly associated with the mass-accretion process. In this work we simulated accretion-disk Doppler maps, including the effects of winds and flickering flares. Synthetic flickering Doppler maps were calculated and the effect of the flickering parameters on the maps was explored. Jets and winds occur in many astrophysical objects where accretion disks are present. Jets are generally absent among the cataclysmic variables (CVs), but there is evidence of mass loss by wind in many objects. CVs are ideal objects to study accretion disks, and consequently to study the wind associated with these disks. We also present simulations of accretion disks, including the presence of a wind with orbital phase resolution. Synthetic Ha line profiles in the optical region were obtained and their corresponding Doppler maps were calculated. The effect of the wind simulation parameters on the wind line profiles was also explored. From this study we verified that optically thick lines and/or emission by diffuse material into the primary Roche lobe are necessary to generate single peaked line profiles, often seen in CVs. The future accounting of these effects is suggested for interpreting Doppler tomography reconstructions.

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We describe the public ESO near-IR variability survey (VVV) scanning the Milky Way bulge and an adjacent section of the mid-plane where star formation activity is high. The survey will take 1929 h of observations with the 4-m VISTA telescope during 5 years (2010-2014), covering similar to 10(9) point sources across an area of 520 deg(2), including 33 known globular clusters and similar to 350 open clusters. The final product will be a deep near-IR atlas in five passbands (0.9-2.5 mu m) and a catalogue of more than 106 variable point sources. Unlike single-epoch surveys that, in most cases, only produce 2-D maps, the VVV variable star survey will enable the construction of a 3-D map of the surveyed region using well-understood distance indicators such as RR Lyrae stars, and Cepheids. It will yield important information on the ages of the populations. The observations will be combined with data from MACHO, OGLE, EROS, VST, Spitzer, HST, Chandra, INTEGRAL, WISE, Fermi LAT, XMM-Newton, GAIA and ALMA for a complete understanding of the variable sources in the inner Milky Way. This public survey will provide data available to the whole community and therefore will enable further studies of the history of the Milky Way, its globular cluster evolution, and the population census of the Galactic Bulge and center, as well as the investigations of the star forming regions in the disk. The combined variable star catalogues will have important implications for theoretical investigations of pulsation properties of stars. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Dystrophin is a protein found at the plasmatic membrane in muscle and postsynaptic membrane of some neurons, where it plays an important role on synaptic transmission and plasticity. Its absence is associated with Duchenne`s muscular dystrophy (DMD), in which cognitive impairment is found. Oxidative stress appears to be involved in the physiopathology of DMD and its cognitive dysfunction. In this regard, the present study investigated oxidative parameters (lipid and protein peroxidation) and antioxidant enzymes activities (superoxide dismutase and catalase) in prefrontal cortex, cerebellum, hippocampus, striatum and cortex tissues from male dystrophic mdx and normal C57BL10 mice. We observed (I) reduced lipid peroxidation in striatum and protein peroxidation in cerebellum and prefrontal cortex; (2) increased superoxide dismutase activity in cerebellum, prefrontal cortex, hippocampus and striatum: and (3) reduced catalase activity in striatum. It seems by our results, that the superoxide dismutase antioxidant mechanism is playing a protective role against lipid and protein peroxidation in mdx mouse brain. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The patterns of antibodies against latent and lytic antigens of human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8) were assessed using immunofluorescence assays of samples from 155 persons seropositive for HHV-8 seen at public health centers and 24 patients with Kaposi`s sarcoma (KS) from Mozambique. Of the 155 persons without KS, 48(31%) had antibodies against latent antigens only, 29 (18.7%) had antibodies against lytic antigens only, and 78 (50.3%) had antibodies against both types of antigen. The HHV-8 antibody titer tended to increase with age until age 40, after which it began to decrease. High titers of antibodies against latent and lytic antigens of HHV-8 were detected mostly in persons co-infected with HIV, and these increased titers could have a predictive value. All patients with KS except four patients who were seronegative for HHV-8 had elevated titers of HHV-8 antibodies, predominantly against latent antigens. The data suggest the potential for an increase in the development of KS in this endemic area for HHV-8. J. Med. Virol. 82:1576-1581, 2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

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Differences in the prevalence of human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8) and Kaposi`s sarcoma (KS) have been described, depending on the study population and their geographic origin. A cross-sectional study aimed at detecting the frequency and titers of antibodies against HHV-8 latent and lytic antigens in serum samples from individuals with different risk-factors for HHV-8 infection, as well as predictive marker identification in patients with KS, was conducted. Serum samples were collected from seven groups of individuals: 75 patients with AIDS-KS, 5 with classic KS, 16 with African KS, 495 with HIV/AIDS, 805 patients with chronic kidney disease, 683 handicapped individuals, and 757 health care workers. Samples were evaluated for the presence and titers of HHV-8-specific antibodies to latent and lytic antigens using ""in house"" immunofluorescence assays. The results were analyzed by the Chi-square, Fisher`s exact test, Kruskal-Wallis and/or Mann-Whitney U-tests. The frequencies of HHV-8 antibodies were as follows: 87.5-100% in patients with KS, 20.4% in patients with HIV/AIDS, 18% in patients with chronic kidney disease, 1.6% in handicapped individuals, and 1.1% in health care workers. A greater number of samples were antibody positive to lytic antigens. Elevated titers of antibodies to latent and lytic antigens, mostly among patients with KS, were detected. Using established serological assays, different ""at-risk"" populations for HHV-8 infection/disease were detected in this geographic area, confirming HIV/AIDS and identifying patients with chronic kidney disease as high-risk groups. It is suggested that a longitudinal evaluation of antibody titers in patients with chronic kidney disease be undertaken to confirm their predictive value in the development of KS. J. Med. Virol. 81: 1292-1297, 2009. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

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Considering the Wald, score, and likelihood ratio asymptotic test statistics, we analyze a multivariate null intercept errors-in-variables regression model, where the explanatory and the response variables are subject to measurement errors, and a possible structure of dependency between the measurements taken within the same individual are incorporated, representing a longitudinal structure. This model was proposed by Aoki et al. (2003b) and analyzed under the bayesian approach. In this article, considering the classical approach, we analyze asymptotic test statistics and present a simulation study to compare the behavior of the three test statistics for different sample sizes, parameter values and nominal levels of the test. Also, closed form expressions for the score function and the Fisher information matrix are presented. We consider two real numerical illustrations, the odontological data set from Hadgu and Koch (1999), and a quality control data set.

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Skew-normal distribution is a class of distributions that includes the normal distributions as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to develop a Bayesian analysis in a multivariate, null intercept, measurement error model [R. Aoki, H. Bolfarine, J.A. Achcar, and D. Leao Pinto Jr, Bayesian analysis of a multivariate null intercept error-in -variables regression model, J. Biopharm. Stat. 13(4) (2003b), pp. 763-771] where the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows a skew-normal distribution. The results and methods are applied to a real dental clinical trial presented in [A. Hadgu and G. Koch, Application of generalized estimating equations to a dental randomized clinical trial, J. Biopharm. Stat. 9 (1999), pp. 161-178].