Signed likelihood ratio tests in the Birnbaum-Saunders regression model

The Birnbaum-Saunders regression model is becoming increasingly popular in lifetime analyses and reliability studies. In this model, the signed likelihood ratio statistic provides the basis for testing inference and construction of confidence limits for a single parameter of interest. We focus on the small sample case, where the standard normal distribution gives a poor approximation to the true distribution of the statistic. We derive three adjusted signed likelihood ratio statistics that lead to very accurate inference even for very small samples. Two empirical applications are presented. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved likelihood inference in Birnbaum-Saunders regressions

The Birnbaum-Saunders regression model is commonly used in reliability studies. We address the issue of performing inference in this class of models when the number of observations is small. Our simulation results suggest that the likelihood ratio test tends to be liberal when the sample size is small. We obtain a correction factor which reduces the size distortion of the test. Also, we consider a parametric bootstrap scheme to obtain improved critical values and improved p-values for the likelihood ratio test. The numerical results show that the modified tests are more reliable in finite samples than the usual likelihood ratio test. We also present an empirical application. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An empirical evaluation of imputation accuracy for association statistics reveals increased type-I error rates in genome-wide associations

Background: Genome wide association studies (GWAS) are becoming the approach of choice to identify genetic determinants of complex phenotypes and common diseases. The astonishing amount of generated data and the use of distinct genotyping platforms with variable genomic coverage are still analytical challenges. Imputation algorithms combine directly genotyped markers information with haplotypic structure for the population of interest for the inference of a badly genotyped or missing marker and are considered a near zero cost approach to allow the comparison and combination of data generated in different studies. Several reports stated that imputed markers have an overall acceptable accuracy but no published report has performed a pair wise comparison of imputed and empiric association statistics of a complete set of GWAS markers. Results: In this report we identified a total of 73 imputed markers that yielded a nominally statistically significant association at P < 10(-5) for type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and compared them with results obtained based on empirical allelic frequencies. Interestingly, despite their overall high correlation, association statistics based on imputed frequencies were discordant in 35 of the 73 (47%) associated markers, considerably inflating the type I error rate of imputed markers. We comprehensively tested several quality thresholds, the haplotypic structure underlying imputed markers and the use of flanking markers as predictors of inaccurate association statistics derived from imputed markers. Conclusions: Our results suggest that association statistics from imputed markers showing specific MAF (Minor Allele Frequencies) range, located in weak linkage disequilibrium blocks or strongly deviating from local patterns of association are prone to have inflated false positive association signals. The present study highlights the potential of imputation procedures and proposes simple procedures for selecting the best imputed markers for follow-up genotyping studies.

Context tree selection: A unifying view

Context tree models have been introduced by Rissanen in [25] as a parsimonious generalization of Markov models. Since then, they have been widely used in applied probability and statistics. The present paper investigates non-asymptotic properties of two popular procedures of context tree estimation: Rissanen's algorithm Context and penalized maximum likelihood. First showing how they are related, we prove finite horizon bounds for the probability of over- and under-estimation. Concerning overestimation, no boundedness or loss-of-memory conditions are required: the proof relies on new deviation inequalities for empirical probabilities of independent interest. The under-estimation properties rely on classical hypotheses for processes of infinite memory. These results improve on and generalize the bounds obtained in Duarte et al. (2006) [12], Galves et al. (2008) [18], Galves and Leonardi (2008) [17], Leonardi (2010) [22], refining asymptotic results of Buhlmann and Wyner (1999) [4] and Csiszar and Talata (2006) [9]. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A note on the likelihood and moments of the skew-normal distribution

In this paper an alternative approach to the one in Henze (1986) is proposed for deriving the odd moments of the skew-normal distribution considered in Azzalini (1985). The approach is based on a Pascal type triangle, which seems to greatly simplify moments computation. Moreover, it is shown that the likelihood equation for estimating the asymmetry parameter in such model is generated as orthogonal functions to the sample vector. As a consequence, conditions for a unique solution of the likelihood equation are established, which seem to hold in more general setting.

Logistics information systems adoption: an empirical investigation in Brazil

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the level of logistics information systems (LIS) adoption in manufacturing companies is influenced by organizational profile variables, such as the company`s size, the nature of its operations and their subsectors. Design/methodology/approach - A review of the mainstream literature on US was carried out to identify the factors influencing the adoption of such information systems and also some research gaps. The empirical study`s strategy is based on a survey research in Brazilian manufacturing firms from the capital goods industry. Data collected were analyzed through Kruskall-Wallis and Mann Whitney`s non-parametric tests. Findings - The analysis indicates that characteristics such as the size of companies and the nature of their operations influence the levels of LIS adoption, whilst comparisons regarding the subsectors appeared to be of little influence. Originality/value - This is the first known study to examine the influence of organizational profiles such as size, nature of operations and subsector on the level of US adoption in manufacturing companies. Moreover, it is unique in portraying the Brazilian scenario on this topic and addressing the adoption of seven types of LIS in a single study.

Evaluation of Characterization and Performance Modeling of Cementitiously Stabilized Layers in the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide

Cementitious stabilization of aggregates and soils is an effective technique to increase the stiffness of base and subbase layers. Furthermore, cementitious bases can improve the fatigue behavior of asphalt surface layers and subgrade rutting over the short and long term. However, it can lead to additional distresses such as shrinkage and fatigue in the stabilized layers. Extensive research has tested these materials experimentally and characterized them; however, very little of this research attempts to correlate the mechanical properties of the stabilized layers with their performance. The Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) provides a promising theoretical framework for the modeling of pavements containing cementitiously stabilized materials (CSMs). However, significant improvements are needed to bring the modeling of semirigid pavements in MEPDG to the same level as that of flexible and rigid pavements. Furthermore, the MEPDG does not model CSMs in a manner similar to those for hot-mix asphalt or portland cement concrete materials. As a result, performance gains from stabilized layers are difficult to assess using the MEPDG. The current characterization of CSMs was evaluated and issues with CSM modeling and characterization in the MEPDG were discussed. Addressing these issues will help designers quantify the benefits of stabilization for pavement service life.

Log-modified Weibull regression models with censored data: Sensitivity and residual analysis

This paper proposes a regression model considering the modified Weibull distribution. This distribution can be used to model bathtub-shaped failure rate functions. Assuming censored data, we consider maximum likelihood and Jackknife estimators for the parameters of the model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and we also present some ways to perform global influence. Besides, for different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulations are performed and the empirical distribution of the modified deviance residual is displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended for a martingale-type residual in log-modified Weibull regression models with censored data. Finally, we analyze a real data set under log-modified Weibull regression models. A diagnostic analysis and a model checking based on the modified deviance residual are performed to select appropriate models. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial portability of numerical models of leaf wetness duration based on empirical approaches

Leaf wetness duration (LWD) models based on empirical approaches offer practical advantages over physically based models in agricultural applications, but their spatial portability is questionable because they may be biased to the climatic conditions under which they were developed. In our study, spatial portability of three LWD models with empirical characteristics - a RH threshold model, a decision tree model with wind speed correction, and a fuzzy logic model - was evaluated using weather data collected in Brazil, Canada, Costa Rica, Italy and the USA. The fuzzy logic model was more accurate than the other models in estimating LWD measured by painted leaf wetness sensors. The fraction of correct estimates for the fuzzy logic model was greater (0.87) than for the other models (0.85-0.86) across 28 sites where painted sensors were installed, and the degree of agreement k statistic between the model and painted sensors was greater for the fuzzy logic model (0.71) than that for the other models (0.64-0.66). Values of the k statistic for the fuzzy logic model were also less variable across sites than those of the other models. When model estimates were compared with measurements from unpainted leaf wetness sensors, the fuzzy logic model had less mean absolute error (2.5 h day(-1)) than other models (2.6-2.7 h day(-1)) after the model was calibrated for the unpainted sensors. The results suggest that the fuzzy logic model has greater spatial portability than the other models evaluated and merits further validation in comparison with physical models under a wider range of climate conditions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An integrated molecular map of yellow passion fruit based on simultaneous maximum-likelihood estimation of linkage and linkage phases

The development of genetic maps for auto-incompatible species, such as the yellow passion fruit (Passiflora edulis Sims f.flavicarpa Deg.) is restricted due to the unfeasibility of obtaining traditional mapping populations based on inbred lines. For this reason, yellow passion fruit linkage maps were generally constructed using a strategy known as two-way pseudo-testeross, based on monoparental dominant markers segregating in a 1:1 fashion. Due to the lack of information from these markers in one of the parents, two individual (parental) maps were obtained. However, integration of these maps is essential, and biparental markers can be used for such an operation. The objective of our study was to construct an integrated molecular map for a full-sib population of yellow passion fruit combining different loci configuration generated from amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs) and microsatellite markers and using a novel approach based on simultaneous maximum-likelihood estimation of linkage and linkage phases, specially designed for outcrossing species. Of the total number of loci, approximate to 76%, 21%, 0.7%, and 2.3% did segregate in 1:1, 3:1, 1:2:1, and 1:1:1:1 ratios, respectively. Ten linkage groups (LGs) were established with a logarithm of the odds (LOD) score >= 5.0 assuming a recombination fraction : <= 0.35. On average, 24 markers were assigned per LG, representing a total map length of 1687 cM, with a marker density of 6.9 cM. No markers were placed as accessories on the map as was done with previously constructed individual maps.

Investigating the gap between citizens` sustainability attitudes and food purchasing behaviour: empirical evidence from Brazilian pork consumers

Consumers worldwide are increasingly concerned with sustainable production and consumption. Recently, a comprehensive study ranked 17 countries in regard to their environmentally friendly behaviour among consumers. Brazil was one of the top countries in the list. Yet, several studies highlight significant differences between consumers` intentions to consume ethically, and their actual purchase behaviour: the so-called `Attitude-Behaviour Gap`. In developing countries, few studies have been conducted on this issue. The objective of this study is therefore to investigate the gap between citizens` sustainability-related attitudes and food purchasing behaviour using empirical data from Brazil. To this end, Brazilian citizens` attitudes towards pig production systems were mapped through conjoint analysis and their coexistence with relevant pork product-related purchasing behaviour of consumers was investigated through cluster analysis. The conjoint experiment was carried Out with empirical data collected from 475 respondents surveyed in the South and Center-West regions of Brazil. The results of the conjoint analysis were used for a subsequent cluster analysis in order to identify clusters of Brazilian citizens with diversified attitudes towards pig production systems, using socio-demographics, attitudes towards sustainability-related themes that are expected to influence the way they evaluate pig production systems, and consumption frequency of various pork products as clusters` background information. Three clusters were identified as `indifferent`, `environmental conscious` and `sustainability-oriented` citizens. Although attitudes towards environment and nature had indeed an influence on citizens` specific attitudes towards pig farming at the cluster level, the relationship between `citizenship` and consumption behaviour was found to be weak. This finding is similar to previous research conducted with European consumers: what people (in their role of citizens) think about pig production systems does not appear to significantly influence their pork consumption choices. Improvements in the integrated management of this chain would better meet consumers` sustainability-related expectations towards pig production systems.

THE TEMPO AND MODE OF EVOLUTION OF TRANSPOSABLE ELEMENTS AS REVEALED BY MOLECULAR PHYLOGENIES RECONSTRUCTED FROM MOSQUITO GENOMES

Although many mathematical models exist predicting the dynamics of transposable elements (TEs), there is a lack of available empirical data to validate these models and inherent assumptions. Genomes can provide a snapshot of several TE families in a single organism, and these could have their demographics inferred by coalescent analysis, allowing for the testing of theories on TE amplification dynamics. Using the available genomes of the mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Anopheles gambiae, we indicate that such an approach is feasible. Our analysis follows four steps: (1) mining the two mosquito genomes currently available in search of TE families; (2) fitting, to selected families found in (1), a phylogeny tree under the general time-reversible (GTR) nucleotide substitution model with an uncorrelated lognormal (UCLN) relaxed clock and a nonparametric demographic model; (3) fitting a nonparametric coalescent model to the tree generated in (2); and (4) fitting parametric models motivated by ecological theories to the curve generated in (3).

Response to Sham and Active Gamma Ventral Capsulotomy in Otherwise Intractable Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder

This case regards a 34-year-old woman with severe and refractory obsessive-compulsive disorder, who was enrolled in a double-blind, randomized controlled trial of radiosurgery. She was at first submitted to a sham radiosurgical procedure, and 1 year later to an active intervention. Opposite clinical responses were observed in the follow-up of these different phases. During the sham surgery follow-up, no improvements were observed, but a remarkable amelioration was seen a few months after the active procedure. Detailed descriptions of psychopathological changes and neuroimaging findings as well as a discussion regarding the surgical technique are provided. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel

Comparative role of neuropsychological testing in the presurgical evaluation of children with medically intractable epilepsies

In the present study, we evaluated the preoperative demographic, clinical, and neuropsychological variables that could predict postoperative seizure outcome in a group of pediatric epileptic patients. We studied 40 consecutive pediatric patients, ages ranging from 6 to 16 years, that underwent resective surgery for the treatment of medically intractable epilepsy at the Clinical Hospital of RibeirA o pound Preto School of Medicine. We performed ictal electroencephalography (EEG), interictal EEG, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and a preoperative neuropsychological assessment in the presurgical workup. The following factors were correlated with seizure outcome: (1) duration of epilepsy, (2) surgery localization, (3) localized Neuropsychological (NPS) Evaluation, (4) ictal EEG, (5) interictal EEG, and (6) MRI. Mental retardation, NPS tests, and the other demographic variables failed to correlate with seizure reduction. The identification of predictor variables of epilepsy surgery outcome could improve the epileptic prognosis and guarantee the children`s full potential development.

Tailored resections for intractable rolandic cortex epilepsy in children: a single-center experience with 48 consecutive cases

A single-center experience with pediatric patients who underwent surgery for intractable rolandic epilepsy was reviewed with the aim of identifying putative factors that could influence postoperative seizure outcome in this population. Clinical data of 48 patients under 18 years of age with diagnosis of intractable rolandic epilepsy who underwent surgery from January 1996 to September 2009 were reviewed. Patients` mean age at surgery was 9.9 +/- 5.3 years; mean age at epilepsy onset was 3.9 years; mean seizure duration prior to surgery was 6 years; and mean follow-up was 5.1 years. The most frequent etiologies were cortical dysplasia, astrogliosis, tumors, tuberous sclerosis complex, and Sturge-Weber syndrome, which were observed in 20/48 (41.6%), 10/48 (20.8%), 10/48 (20.8%), 5/48 (10.4%), and 3/48 (6.2%) of the patients, respectively. After surgery, 20 patients (41.6%) showed neurological deficits, which in turn recovered within no longer than 6 months after surgery. Seizure outcome was classified as Engel class I in 29 (60.4%), Engel class II in 10 (20.8%), and Engel class III in 9 (18.8%) of the patients. The factors significantly related with seizure outcome were histological features (tumor versus non-tumor cases, p = 0.04) and lesion site (focal lesions versus non-focal lesions, p = 0.04). Tailored resection of rolandic cortex for intractable epilepsy can be safely performed in children. Accurate mapping of both functional cortex and epileptogenic areas may lead to improved seizure outcome. Tumor as well as focal lesions in hand and face motor areas are associated with good seizure outcome.