Use of a predictive model for food insecurity estimates in Brazil

In 2004 the National Household Survey (Pesquisa Nacional par Amostras de Domicilios - PNAD) estimated the prevalence of food and nutrition insecurity in Brazil. However, PNAD data cannot be disaggregated at the municipal level. The objective of this study was to build a statistical model to predict severe food insecurity for Brazilian municipalities based on the PNAD dataset. Exclusion criteria were: incomplete food security data (19.30%); informants younger than 18 years old (0.07%); collective households (0.05%); households headed by indigenous persons (0.19%). The modeling was carried out in three stages, beginning with the selection of variables related to food insecurity using univariate logistic regression. The variables chosen to construct the municipal estimates were selected from those included in PNAD as well as the 2000 Census. Multivariate logistic regression was then initiated, removing the non-significant variables with odds ratios adjusted by multiple logistic regression. The Wald Test was applied to check the significance of the coefficients in the logistic equation. The final model included the variables: per capita income; years of schooling; race and gender of the household head; urban or rural residence; access to public water supply; presence of children; total number of household inhabitants and state of residence. The adequacy of the model was tested using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p=0.561) and ROC curve (area=0.823). Tests indicated that the model has strong predictive power and can be used to determine household food insecurity in Brazilian municipalities, suggesting that similar predictive models may be useful tools in other Latin American countries.

Precipitation diurnal cycle and summer climatology assessment over South America: An evaluation of Regional Climate Model version 3 simulations

Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) simulations of 17 summers (1988-2004) over part of South America south of 5 degrees S were evaluated to identify model systematic errors. Model results were compared to different rainfall data sets (Climate Research Unit (CRU), Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis), including the five summers mean (1998-2002) precipitation diurnal cycle observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-Precipitation Radar (PR). In spite of regional differences, the RegCM3 simulates the main observed aspects of summer climatology associated with the precipitation (northwest-southeast band of South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)) and air temperature (warmer air in the central part of the continent and colder in eastern Brazil and the Andes Mountains). At a regional scale, the main RegCM3 failures are the underestimation of the precipitation in the northern branch of the SACZ and some unrealistic intense precipitation around the Andes Mountains. However, the RegCM3 seasonal precipitation is closer to the fine-scale analyses (CPC, CRU, and TRMM-PR) than is the NCEP reanalysis, which presents an incorrect north-south orientation of SACZ and an overestimation of its intensity. The precipitation diurnal cycle observed by TRMM-PR shows pronounced contrasts between Tropics and Extratropics and land and ocean, where most of these features are simulated by RegCM3. The major similarities between the simulation and observation, especially the diurnal cycle phase, are found over the continental tropical and subtropical SACZ regions, which present afternoon maximum (1500-1800 UTC) and morning minimum (0900-1200 UTC). More specifically, over the core of SACZ, the phase and amplitude of the simulated precipitation diurnal cycle are very close to the TRMM-PR observations. Although there are amplitude differences, the RegCM3 simulates the observed nighttime rainfall in the eastern Andes Mountains, over the Atlantic Ocean, and also over northern Argentina. The main simulation deficiencies are found in the Atlantic Ocean and near the Andes Mountains. Over the Atlantic Ocean the convective scheme is not triggered; thus the rainfall arises from the grid-scale scheme and therefore differs from the TRMM-PR. Near the Andes, intense (nighttime and daytime) simulated precipitation could be a response of an incorrect circulation and topographic uplift. Finally, it is important to note that unlike most reported bias of global models, RegCM3 does not trigger the moist convection just after sunrise over the southern part of the Amazon.

Formulation of the standard model in terms of spinor fields

We propose an alternative formulation of the Standard Model which reduces the number of free parameters. In our framework, fermionic fields are assigned to fundamental representations of the Lorentz and the internal symmetry groups, whereas bosonic field variables transform as direct products of fundamental representations of all symmetry groups. This allows us to reduce the number of fundamental symmetries. We formulate the Standard Model by considering the SU(3) and SU(2) symmetry groups as the underlying symmetries of the fundamental interactions. This allows us to suggest a model, for the description of the interactions of the intermediate bosons among themselves and interactions of fermions, that makes use of just two parameters. One parameter characterizes the symmetric phase, whereas the other parameter (the asymmetry parameter) gives the breakdown strength of the symmetries. All coupling strengths of the Standard Model are then derived in terms of these two parameters. In particular, we show that all fermionic electric charges result from symmetry breakdown.

Major shear zones of southern Brazil and Uruguay: escape tectonics in the eastern border of Rio de La plata and Paranapanema cratons during the Western Gondwana amalgamation

The Mantiqueira Province represents a series of supracrustal segments of the South-American counterpart formed during the Gondwana Supercontinent agglutination. In this crustal domain, the process of escape tectonics played a conspicuous role, generating important NE-N-S-trending lineaments. The oblique component of the motions of the colliding tectonic blocks defined the transpressional character of the main suture zones: Lancinha-Itariri, Cubato-Arcadia-Areal, Serrinha-Rio Palmital in the Ribeira Belt and Sierra Ballena-Major Gercino in the Dom Feliciano Belt. The process as a whole lasted for ca. 60 Ma, since the initial collision phase until the lateral escape phase predominantly marked by dextral and subordinate sinistral transpressional shear zones. In the Dom Feliciano Belt, southern Brazil and Uruguay, transpressional event at 630-600 Ma is recognized and in the Ribeira Belt, despite less coevally, the transpressional event occurred between 590 and 560 Ma in its northern-central portion and between ca. 625 and 595 Ma in its central-southern portion. The kinematics of several shear zones with simultaneous movement in opposite directions at their terminations is explained by the sinuosity of these lineaments in relation to a predominantly continuous westward compression.

Cambrian mafic to felsic magmatism and its connections with transcurrent shear zones of the Borborema Province (NE Brazil): Implications for the late assembly of the West Gondwana

New U-Pb (SHRIMP) and (40)Ar/(39)Ar isotopic data of igneous rocks and mylonites of the Borborema Province (NE Brazil) show that a wide range of tectonothermal events affected the province during the transition from the Precambrian to the Cambrian. Concordant zircon U-Pb data constrained the crystallization age of mafic stocks, mafic to felsic dikes and granite batholiths between 548 and 533 Ma. These bodies were emplaced in a regional strain field combining extension and dextral shearing. The ductile shear deformation overprinted an older basement fabric to develop a low- to medium metamorphic grade vertical mylonite belt that cut the province in the E-W direction. Magnetic fabrics of the Cambrian batholiths determined by anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility are consistent with syntectonic emplacement. The magmatic pulses and shear deformation would have supplied enough heat to reset the synkinematic micas of mylonites to yield (40)Ar/(39)Ar plateau cooling ages between ca. 550 and 510 Ma. These results provide evidence that emplacement of Early Cambrian mafic and felsic magmas were accompanied by regional-scale shear deformations, probably in the consequence of late collisions along the West Gondwana margin. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Formalization of an architectural model for exception handling coordination based on CA action concepts

Architectures based on Coordinated Atomic action (CA action) concepts have been used to build concurrent fault-tolerant systems. This conceptual model combines concurrent exception handling with action nesting to provide a general mechanism for both enclosing interactions among system components and coordinating forward error recovery measures. This article presents an architectural model to guide the formal specification of concurrent fault-tolerant systems. This architecture provides built-in Communicating Sequential Processes (CSPs) and predefined channels to coordinate exception handling of the user-defined components. Hence some safety properties concerning action scoping and concurrent exception handling can be proved by using the FDR (Failure Divergence Refinement) verification tool. As a result, a formal and general architecture supporting software fault tolerance is ready to be used and proved as users define components with normal and exceptional behaviors. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inference for a skew extension of the Grubbs model

In this paper, we discuss inferential aspects for the Grubbs model when the unknown quantity x (latent response) follows a skew-normal distribution, extending early results given in Arellano-Valle et al. (J Multivar Anal 96:265-281, 2005b). Maximum likelihood parameter estimates are computed via the EM-algorithm. Wald and likelihood ratio type statistics are used for hypothesis testing and we explain the apparent failure of the Wald statistics in detecting skewness via the profile likelihood function. The results and methods developed in this paper are illustrated with a numerical example.

Nested diets: a novel pattern of individual-level resource use

Many generalist populations may actually be composed of relatively specialist individuals. This `individual specialization` may have important ecological and evolutionary implications. Although this phenomenon has been documented in more than one hundred taxa, it is still unclear how individuals within a population actually partition resources. Here we applied several methods based on network theory to investigate the intrapopulation patterns of resource use in the gracile mouse opossum Gracilinanus microtarsus. We found evidence of significant individual specialization in this species and that the diets of specialists are nested within the diets of generalists. This novel pattern is consistent with a recently proposed model of optimal foraging and implies strong asymmetry in the interactions among individuals of a population.