Stochastic simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation activity

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability. This study investigated the following questions. Do inter-annual-to-decadal variations in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) lead to substantial changes in MJO activity? Was there a change in the MJO in the 1970s? Can this change be associated to SST anomalies? What was the level of MJO activity in the pre-reanalysis era? These questions were investigated with a stochastic model of the MJO. Reanalysis data (1948-2008) were used to develop a nine-state first order Markov model capable to simulate the non-stationarity of the MJO. The model is driven by observed SST anomalies and a large ensemble of simulations was performed to infer the activity of the MJO in the instrumental period (1880-2008). The model is capable to reproduce the activity of the MJO during the reanalysis period. The simulations indicate that the MJO exhibited a regime of near normal activity in 1948-1972 (3.4 events year(-1)) and two regimes of high activity in 1973-1989 (3.9 events) and 1990-2008 (4.6 events). Stochastic simulations indicate decadal shifts with near normal levels in 1880-1895 (3.4 events), low activity in 1896 1917 (2.6 events) and a return to near normal levels during 1918-1947 (3.3 events). The results also point out to significant decadal changes in probabilities of very active years (5 or more MJO events): 0.214 (1880-1895), 0.076 (1896-1917), 0.197 (1918-1947) and 0.193 (1948-1972). After a change in behavior in the 1970s, this probability has increased to 0.329 (1973-1989) and 0.510 (1990-2008). The observational and stochastic simulations presented here call attention to the need to further understand the variability of the MJO on a wide range of time scales.

New perspectives on the synoptic and mesoscale structure of Hurricane Catarina

This work explores in detail synoptic and mesoscale features of Hurricane Catarina during its life cycle from a decaying baroclinic wave to a tropical depression that underwent tropical transition (TT) and finally to a Category 2 hurricane at landfall over Santa Catarina State coast, southern Brazil. This unique system caused 11 deaths mostly off the Brazilian coast and an estimated half billion dollars in damage in a matter of a few hours on 28 March 2004. Although the closest meteorological station available was tens of kilometres away from the eye, in situ meteorological measurements provided by a work-team sent to the area where the eye made landfall unequivocally reproduces the tropical signature with category 2 strength, adding to previous analysis where this data was not available. Further analyses are based mostly on remote sensing data available at the time of the event. A classic dipole blocking set synoptic conditions for Hurricane Catarina to develop, dynamically contributing to the low wind shear observed. On the other hand, on its westward transit, large scale subsidence limited its strength and vertical development. Catarina had relatively cool SST conditions, but this was mitigated by favourable air-sea fluxes leading to latent heat release-driven processes during the mature phase. The ocean`s dynamic topography also suggested the presence of nearby warm core rings which may have facilitated the transition and post-transition intensification. Since there were no records of such a system at least in the past 30 years and given that SSTs were generally below 26 degrees C and vertical shear was usually strong, despite all satellite data available, the system was initially classified as an extratropical cyclone. Here we hypothesise that this categorization was based oil inadequate regional scale model outputs which did not account for the importance of the latent heat fluxes over the ocean. Hurricane Catarina represents a dramatic event on weather systems in South America. It has attracted attention worldwide and poses questions as whether or not it is a symptom of global warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of climate changes on crop physiology and food quality

Carbon emissions related to human activities have been significantly contributing to the elevation of atmospheric [CO(2)] and temperature. More recently, carbon emissions have greatly accelerated, thus much stronger effects on crops are expected. Here, we revise literature data concerning the physiological effects of CO(2) enrichment and temperature rise on crop species. We discuss the main advantages and limitations of the most used CO(2)-enrichment technologies, the Open-Top Chambers (OTCs) and the Free-Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE). Within the conditions expected for the next few years, the physiological responses of crops suggest that they will grow faster, with slight changes in development, such as flowering and fruiting, depending on the species. There is growing evidence suggesting that C(3) crops are likely to produce more harvestable products and that both C(3) and C(4) crops are likely to use less water with rising atmospheric [CO(2)] in the absence of stressful conditions. However, the beneficial direct impact of elevated [CO(2)] on crop yield can be offset by other effects of climate change, such as elevated temperatures and altered patterns of precipitation. Changes in food quality in a warmer, high-CO(2) world are to be expected, e.g., decreased protein and mineral nutrient concentrations, as well as altered lipid composition. We point out that studies related to changes in crop yield and food quality as a consequence of global climatic changes should be priority areas for further studies, particularly because they will be increasingly associated with food security. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The comparative field body temperature among Liolaemus lizards: Testing the static and the labile hypotheses

Two competing hypotheses have been suggested to explain thermal sensitivity of lizards to environmental conditions. These are the static and the labile hypotheses. The static hypothesis posits that thermal physiology is evolutionary conservative and consequently relatively insensitive to directional selection. Contrarily, the labile hypothesis states that thermal physiology does respond readily to directional selection in some lizard taxa. In this paper, we tested both hypotheses among species of Liolaemus lizards. The genus Liolaemus is diverse with about 200 species, being broadly distributed from central Peru to Tierra del Fuego at the southern end of South America. Data of field body temperature (T(b)) from Liolaemus species were collected from the literature. Based on the distributional range of the species we also collected data of mean annual ambient temperatures. We observed that both the traditional analysis and the phylogenetic approach indicate that in the genus Liolaemus T(b) of species varies in a manner that is consistent with ecological gradient of ambient temperature. The data suggest that the thermal physiology of Liolaemus lizards is evolutionarily flexible, and that this plasticity has been partially responsible for the colonization of a wide array of thermal environments. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evidence of a genetic bottleneck in an El Nino affected population of South American fur seals, Arctocephalus australis

The South American fur seal, Arctocephalus australis, was one of the earliest otariid seals to be exploited by humans: at least 6000 years ago on the Atlantic coast and 4000 on the Pacific coast of South America. More than 750,000 fur seals were killed in Uruguay until 1991. However, a climatological phenomenon-the severe 1997-1998 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-was responsible for the decline of 72% Of the Peruvian fur seal population due to starvation as a consequence of warming of sea-surface temperatures and primary productivity reduction. Currently, there is no precise information on global population size or on the species` conservation status. The present study includes the first bottleneck test for the Pacific and Atlantic populations of A. australis based on the analysis of seven microsatellite loci. Genetic bottleneck compromises the evolutionary potential of a population to respond to environmental changes. The perspective becomes even more alarming due to current global warming models that predict stronger and more frequent ENSO events in the future. Our analysis found moderate support for deviation from neutrality-equilibrium for the Pacific population of fur seals and none for the Atlantic population. This difference among population reflects different demographic histories, and is consistent with a greater reduction in population size in the Pacific. Such an event could be a result of the synergic effects of recurrent ENSO events and the anthropogenic impact (sealing and prey overfishing) on this population.

Study of the carbon dioxide chemical fixation-activation by guanidines

Fixation of CO(2) is one of the most important priorities of the scientific community dedicated to reduce global warming. In this work, we propose new methods for the fixation of CO2 using the guanidine bases tetramethylguanidine (TMG) and 1,3,4,6,7,8-hexahydro-2H-pyrimido[1,2-a]-pyrimidine (TBD). In order to understand the reactions occurring during the CO(2) fixation and release processes, we employed several experimental methods, including solution and solid-state NMR, FTIR, and coupled TGA-FTIR. Quantum mechanical NMR calculations were also carried out. Based on the results obtained, we concluded that CO(2) fixation with both TMG and TBD guanidines is a kinetically reversible process, and the corresponding fixation products have proved to be useful as transcarboxylating compounds. Afterward, CO(2) thermal releasing from this fixation product with TBD was found to be an interesting process for CO(2) capture and isolation purposes. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.