Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Risk optimization of a steel frame communications tower subject to tornado winds

The structural engineering community in Brazil faces new challenges with the recent occurrence of high intensity tornados. Satellite surveillance data shows that the area covering the south-east of Brazil, Uruguay and some of Argentina is one of the world most tornado-prone areas, second only to the infamous tornado alley in central United States. The design of structures subject to tornado winds is a typical example of decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Structural design involves finding a good balance between the competing goals of safety and economy. This paper presents a methodology to find the optimum balance between these goals in the presence of uncertainty. In this paper, reliability-based risk optimization is used to find the optimal safety coefficient that minimizes the total expected cost of a steel frame communications tower, subject to extreme storm and tornado wind loads. The technique is not new, but it is applied to a practical problem of increasing interest to Brazilian structural engineers. The problem is formulated in the partial safety factor format used in current design codes, with all additional partial factor introduced to serve as optimization variable. The expected cost of failure (or risk) is defined as the product of a. limit state exceedance probability by a limit state exceedance cost. These costs include costs of repairing, rebuilding, and paying compensation for injury and loss of life. The total expected failure cost is the sum of individual expected costs over all failure modes. The steel frame communications, tower subject of this study has become very common in Brazil due to increasing mobile phone coverage. The study shows that optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the cost (or consequences) of failure. Since failure consequences depend oil actual tower location, it turn,,; out that different optimum designs should be used in different locations. Failure consequences are also different for the different parties involved in the design, construction and operation of the tower. Hence, it is important that risk is well understood by the parties involved, so that proper contracts call be made. The investigation shows that when non-structural terms dominate design costs (e.g, in residential or office buildings) it is not too costly to over-design; this observation is in agreement with the observed practice for non-optimized structural systems. In this situation, is much easier to loose money by under-design. When by under-design. When structural material cost is a significant part of design cost (e.g. concrete dam or bridge), one is likely to lose significantmoney by over-design. In this situation, a cost-risk-benefit optimization analysis is highly recommended. Finally, the study also shows that under time-varying loads like tornados, the optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the selected design life.

Contribution margin model applied to the marketing planning of a container liner carrier

The implementation of confidential contracts between a container liner carrier and its customers, because of the Ocean Shipping Reform Act (OSRA) 1998, demands a revision in the methodology applied in the carrier's planning of marketing and sales. The marketing and sales planning process should be more scientific and with a better use of operational research tools considering the selection of the customers under contracts, the duration of the contracts, the freight, and the container imbalances of these contracts are basic factors for the carrier's yield. This work aims to develop a decision support system based on a linear programming model to generate the business plan for a container liner carrier, maximizing the contribution margin of its freight.

Análise técnica e econômica de prestadores de serviços na colheita florestal

The objective of this Study was to describe the financial conditions of forestry contractors, concerning life quality aspects, condition of work and equipments, operational costs, and economic credit to invest in new technologies. Five companies had been analyzed, with an annual income between US$ 400,000.00 and US$ 1,720,000.00, with an average of US$ 950,000.00. The number of employees varied between 33 and 181, and the companies were classified in terms of size as: one small, two average, and two big. The main difficulties to invest in new machines were high financial taxes, more than 12% an year, and a lack of long term contracts to guarantee the payment capability. It was observed that the contractors did not consider the capital remuneration and a correct depreciation of machines, resulting in an average machine life higher than 10 years. The final conclusions were that the costs were above the paid values for the services, when computed the depreciation and capital remuneration, with negative results In the financial analyzes of three companies. Finally, the mechanization process increased the workers life quality, however, the annual income was around US$ 2,112.00 per worker, approximately 39% lower than the average Brazilian population.

Finding the Higgs boson through supersymmetry

The study of displaced vertices containing two b-jets may provide a double discovery at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC): we show how it may not only reveal evidence for supersymmetry, but also provide a way to uncover the Higgs boson necessary in the formulation of the electroweak theory in a large region of the parameter space. We quantify this explicitly using the simplest minimal supergravity model with bilinear breaking of R-parity, which accounts for the observed pattern of neutrino masses and mixings seen in neutrino oscillation experiments.

TAXONOMIC POSITION OF GUIRATINGIA MENDESI (MEGADESMIDAE) AND THE EVOLUTION OF PERMIAN ENDEMIC BIVALVE FAUNA OF THE PARANA BASIN, BRAZIL

The unusual bivalve Guiratingia mendesi is redescribed from the original material. Detailed analysis of hinge and muscle scars allows more refined designation of its taxonomic position and affinities to other Permian bivalves from the Parana Basin. Guiratingia mendesi is characterized by very small, anteriorly expanded shells, with a great number of muscle striae within the area delimited by the pallial line. A flattened area is noted alongside the commissure of shell. The presence of a triangular blunt tooth in the right valve allows its designation to Megadesmidae. The absence of accessory muscle scars ""a"" and ""b"" and pedal elevator indicate that the genus belongs to the Plesiocyprinellinae, a group of bivalves considered endemic to the Passa Dois Group. Guiratingia mendesi is found, however, in limestones of the Palermo Formation (Middle Artinskian), nearly 100 in below the base of the Irati Formation (Late Artinskian). Until now, it was believed that within the Permian succession of Parana Basin, pre-Irati bivalves were all gondwanic or cosmopolitan. Guiratingia mendesi was an endemic, active burrower that resembles Runnegariella fragilis from the Permian Teresina Formation. This indicates that during Palermo times restricted paleogeographic conditions have existed within the huge Parana epeiric sea, favoring endemicity, probably in marine bayments close to its margins. The presence of an anteriorly expanded shell in G mendesi is a condition also seen in other Mesozoic and Cenozoic anomalodesmatans, demonstrating the recurrence of shell forms in distinct lineages of this interesting group of bivalves.

E-contracting with price configuration for Web services and QoS

The large amount of information in electronic contracts hampers their establishment due to high complexity. An approach inspired in Software Product Line (PL) and based on feature modelling was proposed to make this process more systematic through information reuse and structuring. By assessing the feature-based approach in relation to a proposed set of requirements, it was showed that the approach does not allow the price of services and of Quality of Services (QoS) attributes to be considered in the negotiation and included in the electronic contract. Thus, this paper also presents an extension of such approach in which prices and price types associated to Web services and QoS levels are applied. An extended toolkit prototype is also presented as well as an experiment example of the proposed approach.

Internal Residual Stresses in Sintered and Commercial Low Expansion Li(2)O-Al(2)O(3)-SiO(2) Glass-Ceramics

We performed Synchrotron X-ray diffraction (XRD) analyses of internal residual stresses in monolithic samples of a newly developed Li(2)O-Al(2)O(3)-SiO(2) (LAS) glass-ceramic produced by sintering and in a commercial LAS glass-ceramic, CERAN (R), produced by the traditional crystal nucleation and growth treatments. The elastic constants were measured by instrumented indentation and a pulse-echo technique. The thermal expansion coefficient of virgilite was determined by high temperature XRD and dilatometry. The c-axis contracts with the increasing temperature whereas the a-axis does not vary significantly. Microcracking of the microstructure affects the thermal expansion coefficients measured by dilatometry and thermal expansion hysteresis is observed for the sintered glass-ceramic as well as for CERAN (R). The measured internal stress is quite low for both glass-ceramics and can be explained by theoretical modeling if the high volume fraction of the crystalline phase (virgilite) is considered. Using a modified Green model, the calculated critical (glass) island diameter for spontaneous cracking agreed with experimental observations. The experimental data collected also allowed the calculation of the critical crystal grain diameters for grain-boundary microcracking due to the anisotropy of thermal expansion of virgilite and for microcracking in the residual glass phase surrounding the virgilite particles. All these parameters are important for the successful microstructural design of sintered glass-ceramics.

Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

The food business environment and the role of China and Brazil building a ""food bridge""

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to discuss the economic crisis of 2008/2009 and the major impacts on developing nations and food-producing countries Within this macro-environment of food chains, there is concern that food inflation might come back sooner than expected The role of China as one of the major food consumers in the future, and Brazil, as the major food producer, is described as the food bridge, and an agenda of common development of these countries suggested. Design/methodology/approach - This paper reviews literature on muses of food inflation, production shortages, and investigation of programs to solve the problem in the future, it is also based on author`s personal insights and experience of working on this field in the last 15 years, and recent discussions in forums and interviews Findings - The major factors that jointly caused food prices increase in 2007/2008 were population growth, Income distribution, urbanization, dollar devaluations, commodity funds, social programs, production shortages, and bionic`s A list of ten policies is suggested. horizontal expansion of food production, vertical expansion, reduction in transaction costs, in protectionism and other taxes, investment in logistics, technology and better coordination, contracts, new generation of fertilizers and to use the best sources of biofuels. Originality/value - Two major outputs from this paper are the ""food demand model"" that inserts in one model the trends and muses of food inflation and the solutions, and the ""food bridge concept"" that also aligns in one box the imminent major food chain cooperation between China and Brazil

Myotomy of the Levator Labii Superioris Muscle and Lip Repositioning: A Combined Approach for the Correction of Gummy Smile

Background: Treatment of excessive gingival display usually involves procedures such as Le Fort impaction or maxillary gingivectomies. The authors propose an alternative technique that reduces the muscular function of the elevator of the upper lip muscle and repositioning of the upper lip. Methods: Fourteen female patients with excessive gingival exposure were operated on between February of 2008 and March of 2009. They were filmed before and at least 6 months after the procedure. They were asked to perform their fullest smile, and the maximum gingival exposures were measured and analyzed using ImageJ software. Patients were operated on under local anesthesia. Their gingival mucosa was freed from the maxilla using a periosteum elevator. Skin and subcutaneous tissue were dissected bluntly from the underlying musculature of the upper lip. A frenuloplasty was performed to lengthen the upper lip. Both levator labii superioris muscles were dissected and divided. Results: The postoperative course was uneventful in all of the patients. The mean gingival exposure before surgery was 5.22 +/- 1.48 mm; 6 months after surgery, it was 1.91 +/- 1.50 mm. The mean gingival exposure reduction was 3.31 +/- 1.05 mm (p < 0.001), ranging from 1.59 to 4.83 mm. Conclusion: This study shows that the proposed technique was efficient in reducing the amount of exposed gum during smile in all patients in this series. (Plast. Reconstr. Surg. 126: 1014, 2010.)

Ageing and surface EMG activity patterns of masticatory muscles

P>The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of age on the electromyographic activity of masticatory muscles. All volunteers were Brazilian, fully dentate (except for Group I - mixed dentition), Caucasian, aged 7-80, and divided into five groups: I (7-12 years), II (13-20 years), III (21-40 years), IV (41-60 years) and V (61-80 years). Except for Group V, which comprised nine women and eight men, all groups were equally divided with respect to gender (20 M/20 F). Surface electromyographic records of masticatory muscles were obtained at rest and during maximal voluntary contraction, right and left laterality, maximal jaw protrusion and maximal clenching in the intercuspal position. Statistically significant differences (P < 0 center dot 05) were found in all clinical conditions among the different age groups. Considerably different patterns of muscle activation were found across ages, with greater electromyographic activity in children and youth, and decreasing from adults to aged people.