Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal childhood vaccination against varicella in Brazil

This study conducts a cost-effectiveness analysis of a childhood universal varicella vaccination program in Brazil. An age and time-dependent dynamic model was developed to estimate the incidence of varicella for 30 years. Assuming a single-dose schedule; vaccine efficacy of 85% and coverage of 80%, the program could prevent 74,422,058 cases and 2905 deaths. It would cost R$ 3,178,396,110 and save R$ 660,076,410 to the society and R$ 365,602,305 to the healthcare system. The program is cost-effective (R$ 14,749 and R$ 16,582 per life-year saved under the societal and the healthcare system`s perspective, respectively). The program`s cost-effectiveness is highly sensitive to the vaccine price and number of doses. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic impact of treatment for surgical site infections in cases of total knee arthroplasty in a tertiary public hospital in Brazil

The aim of this study was to estimate the additional cost of treatment of a group of nosocomial infections in a tertiary public hospital. A retrospective observational cohort study was conducted by means of analyzing the medical records of 34 patients with infection after total knee arthroplasty, diagnosed in 2006 and 2007, who met the criteria for nosocomial infection according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. To estimate the direct costs of treatment for these patients, the following data were gathered: length of hospital stay, laboratory tests, imaging examinations, and surgical procedures performed. Their costs were estimated from the minimum values according to the Brazilian Medical Association. The estimated cost of the antibiotics used was also obtained. The total length of stay in the ward was 976 days, at a cost of US$ 18,994.63, and, in the intensive care unit, it was 34 days at a cost of US$ 5,031.37. Forty-two debridement procedures were performed, at a cost of US$ 5,798.06, and 1965 tests (laboratory and imaging) were also performed, at a cost of US$ 15,359.25. US$ 20,845.01 was spent on antibiotics and US$ 1,735.16 on vacuum assisted closure therapy, microsurgical flaps, implant removal, spacer use, and surgical revision. The total additional cost of these cases of hospital infection in 2006 and 2007 was of US$ 91,843.75. Based on that, we demonstrate that the high cost of treatment for hospital infections emphasizes the importance of taking measures to prevent and control hospital infection.

Oxigenoterapia domiciliar prolongada em crianças e adolescentes: uma análise do uso clínico e de custos de um programa assistencial

OBJETIVOS: Descrever as características clínicas e laboratoriais dos pacientes em oxigenoterapia domiciliar prolongada acompanhados pelo programa de atendimento domiciliar do Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, durante um período de 8 anos, e comparar os grupos com e sem hipertensão pulmonar secundária. Estimar o custo do programa utilizando concentradores versus cilindros de oxigênio arcados pela instituição. MÉTODOS: Estudo descritivo retrospectivo e de coorte dos pacientes em oxigenoterapia domiciliar prolongada, em seguimento no período de 2002 a 2009, na Unidade de Pneumologia do Instituto da Criança do Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo. RESULTADOS: Foram estudados 165 pacientes, 53% do sexo masculino, com as medianas: idade de início da oxigenoterapia - 3,6 anos; tempo de oxigenoterapia - 7 anos; e tempo de sobrevida após início da oxigenoterapia - 3,4 anos. Os principais diagnósticos foram: fibrose cística (22%), displasia broncopulmonar (19%) e bronquiolite obliterante (15%). Dos 33 pacientes que realizaram espirometria, 70% apresentavam distúrbio ventilatório obstrutivo grave. O exame ecocardiográfico foi executado em 134 pacientes; 51% deles tinham hipertensão pulmonar secundária. Houve associação estatisticamente significante entre: presença de hipertensão pulmonar e necessidade de maiores fluxos de oxigênio (qui-quadrado, p = 0,011); e presença de hipertensão pulmonar e maior tempo de oxigenoterapia (Logrank, p = 0,0001). Não houve diferença estatisticamente significante entre tempo de sobrevida após início da oxigenoterapia e presença de hipertensão pulmonar. Os custos médios mensais do programa foram: US$ 7.392,93 para os concentradores e US$ 16.630,92 para cilindros. CONCLUSÕES: A oxigenoterapia domiciliar prolongada foi empregada em distintas doenças crônicas, predominantemente em lactentes e pré-escolares. Houve alta frequência de hipertensão pulmonar associada a maiores períodos de uso e fluxos de oxigênio, sem associação à sobrevida. A substituição dos cilindros por concentradores poderá reduzir custos significativamente.

Análise TG-ROC de testes de imunofluorescência no diagnóstico de leishmaniose visceral canina

OBJETIVO: Analisar a acurácia do diagnóstico de dois protocolos de imunofluorescência indireta para leishmaniose visceral canina. MÉTODOS: Cães provenientes de inquérito soroepidemiológico realizado em área endêmica nos municípios de Araçatuba e de Andradina, na região noroeste do estado de São Paulo, em 2003, e área não endêmica da região metropolitana de São Paulo, foram utilizados para avaliar comparativamente dois protocolos da reação de imunofluorescência indireta (RIFI) para leishmaniose: um utilizando antígeno heterólogo Leishmania major (RIFI-BM) e outro utilizando antígeno homólogo Leishmania chagasi (RIFI-CH). Para estimar acurácia utilizou-se a análise two-graph receiver operating characteristic (TG-ROC). A análise TG-ROC comparou as leituras da diluição 1:20 do antígeno homólogo (RIFI-CH), consideradas como teste referência, com as diluições da RIFI-BM (antígeno heterólogo). RESULTADOS: A diluição 1:20 do teste RIFI-CH apresentou o melhor coeficiente de contingência (0,755) e a maior força de associação entre as duas variáveis estudadas (qui-quadrado=124,3), sendo considerada a diluição-referência do teste nas comparações com as diferentes diluições do teste RIFI-BM. Os melhores resultados do RIFI-BM foram obtidos na diluição 1:40, com melhor coeficiente de contingência (0,680) e maior força de associação (qui-quadrado=80,8). Com a mudança do ponto de corte sugerido nesta análise para a diluição 1:40 da RIFI-BM, o valor do parâmetro especificidade aumentou de 57,5% para 97,7%, embora a diluição 1:80 tivesse apresentado a melhor estimativa para sensibilidade (80,2%) com o novo ponto de corte. CONCLUSÕES: A análise TG-ROC pode fornecer importantes informações sobre os testes de diagnósticos, além de apresentar sugestões sobre pontos de cortes que podem melhorar as estimativas de sensibilidade e especificidade do teste, e avaliá-los a luz do melhor custo-benefício.

Within- and between-person variations as determinant factors to calculate the number of observations to estimate usual dietary intake of adolescents

This cross-sectional study describes the variation in the dietary intake of energy and macronutrients based on estimated coefficients of within- and between-person variation and intends to calculate the number of days required to evaluate the dietary intake of adolescents in Piracicaba, Brazil. The sample was made up by ninety-two adolescents aged between eleven and sixteen years. Interviews were performed to assess demographic, anthropometric and dietary variables, which were evaluated by the answers obtained through two 24-hour recalls. Descriptive analyses were performed and variances and Coefficients of variation within- and between-person were obtained by results of one-way ANOVA. The mean energy intake observed was 2,326.2 kilocalories; mean macronutrient intake came to 89.0 grams of fatty acids, 305.3 grams of carbohydrates and 82.2 grams of proteins. Coefficients of within-person variation ranged from 36% to 45%, while between-person coefficients varied from 26% to 31%. Variance ratios ranged from 1.35 (carbohydrate) to 2.62 (protein). The lowest number of observations required to correctly evaluate the usual diet calculated (r = 0.90) was six days, for carbohydrates while the highest was eleven, for proteins. Coefficients of variation were similar to those observed in international studies. We conclude that, in this study, two observations were sufficient to obtain reasonable correlations. However, six evaluations are necessary for these adolescents in order to obtain excellent correlations.

A feasibility study of cell phone and landline phone interviews for monitoring of risk and protection factors for chronic diseases in Brazil

The study objective was to evaluate the feasibility of interviews by cell phone as a complement to interviews by landline to estimate risk and protection factors for chronic non-communicable diseases. Adult cell phone users were evaluated by random digit dialing. Questions asked were: age, sex, education, race, marital status, ownership of landline and cell phones, health condition, weight and height, medical diagnosis of hypertension and diabetes, physical activity, diet, binge drinking and smoking. The estimates were calculated using post-stratification weights. The cell phone interview system showed a reduced capacity to reach elderly and low educated populations. The estimates of the risk and protection factors for chronic non-communicable diseases in cell phone interviews were equal to the estimates obtained by landline phone. Eligibility, success and refusal rates using the cell phone system were lower than those of the landline system, but loss and cost were much higher, suggesting it is unsatisfactory as a complementary method in such a context.

Marcador in vitro da resposta glicêmica dos alimentos como ferramenta de auxílio à prescrição e avaliação de dietas

As dietas de baixo índice glicêmico e baixa carga glicêmica têm sido associadas à redução do risco de doenças crônicas. Por esse motivo há um interesse crescente na sua aplicação para avaliação e orientação nutricional. No entanto, existem limitações quanto ao uso de dados publicados de índice glicêmico e carga glicêmica, pela variedade e formas de processamento dos alimentos vegetais existentes. Devido à dificuldade de realização de ensaios in vivo, uma vez que são custosos, trabalhosos, invasivos e necessitam de período considerável de experimentação, foram desenvolvidas metodologias in vitro que, a partir da velocidade de digestão dos carboidratos, permitem estimar o índice glicêmico dos alimentos de forma prática, simples e econômica. O presente trabalho apresenta o uso de um marcador in vitro, o índice de hidrólise, na estimativa do índice glicêmico e da carga glicêmica, o método mais empregado por pesquisadores brasileiros, visando à sua aplicação por profissionais da área de Nutrição. Os cálculos e as interpretações para estimativa do Índice glicêmico e da carga glicêmica são apresentados por meio de um exemplo prático com alguns alimentos brasileiros e com o grão de amaranto submetido a diferentes processamentos. Na ausência de dados referentes à resposta glicêmica do alimento de interesse, os valores do marcador in vitro podem ser utilizados para estimar o índice glicêmico e a carga glicêmica dos alimentos. Porém, este marcador não deve ser utilizado indiscriminadamente, uma vez que leva em consideração apenas os fatores intrínsecos aos alimentos que influenciam o aproveitamento dos carboidratos disponíveis.

Trajectory Sensitivity Method and Master-Slave Synchronization to Estimate Parameters of Nonlinear Systems

A combination of trajectory sensitivity method and master-slave synchronization was proposed to parameter estimation of nonlinear systems. It was shown that master-slave coupling increases the robustness of the trajectory sensitivity algorithm with respect to the initial guess of parameters. Since synchronization is not a guarantee that the estimation process converges to the correct parameters, a conditional test that guarantees that the new combined methodology estimates the true values of parameters was proposed. This conditional test was successfully applied to Lorenz's and Chua's systems, and the proposed parameter estimation algorithm has shown to be very robust with respect to parameter initial guesses and measurement noise for these examples. Copyright (C) 2009 Elmer P. T. Cari et al.

Short-term triple therapy with azithromycin for Helicobacter pylori eradication: Low cost, high compliance, but low efficacy

Background: The Brazilian consensus recommends a short-term treatment course with clarithromycin, amoxicillin and proton-pump inhibitor for the eradication of Helicobacter pylori ( H. pylori). This treatment course has good efficacy, but cannot be afforded by a large part of the population. Azithromycin, amoxicillin and omeprazole are subsidized, for several aims, by the Brazilian federal government. Therefore, a short-term treatment course that uses these drugs is a low-cost one, but its efficacy regarding the bacterium eradication is yet to be demonstrated. The study's purpose was to verify the efficacy of H. pylori eradication in infected patients who presented peptic ulcer disease, using the association of azithromycin, amoxicillin and omeprazole. Methods: Sixty patients with peptic ulcer diagnosed by upper digestive endoscopy and H. pylori infection documented by rapid urease test, histological analysis and urea breath test were treated for six days with a combination of azithromycin 500 mg and omeprazole 20 mg, in a single daily dose, associated with amoxicillin 500 mg 3 times a day. The eradication control was carried out 12 weeks after the treatment by means of the same diagnostic tests. The eradication rates were calculated with 95% confidence interval. Results: The eradication rate was 38% per intention to treat and 41% per protocol. Few adverse effects were observed and treatment compliance was high. Conclusion: Despite its low cost and high compliance, the low eradication rate does not allow the recommendation of the triple therapy with azithromycin as an adequate treatment for H. pylori infection.

Cost risk benefit analysis to support chemoprophylaxis policy for travellers to malaria endemic countries

Background: In a number of malaria endemic regions, tourists and travellers face a declining risk of travel associated malaria, in part due to successful malaria control. Many millions of visitors to these regions are recommended, via national and international policy, to use chemoprophylaxis which has a well recognized morbidity profile. To evaluate whether current malaria chemo-prophylactic policy for travellers is cost effective when adjusted for endemic transmission risk and duration of exposure. a framework, based on partial cost-benefit analysis was used Methods: Using a three component model combining a probability component, a cost component and a malaria risk component, the study estimated health costs avoided through use of chemoprophylaxis and costs of disease prevention (including adverse events and pre-travel advice for visits to five popular high and low malaria endemic regions) and malaria transmission risk using imported malaria cases and numbers of travellers to malarious countries. By calculating the minimal threshold malaria risk below which the economic costs of chemoprophylaxis are greater than the avoided health costs we were able to identify the point at which chemoprophylaxis would be economically rational. Results: The threshold incidence at which malaria chemoprophylaxis policy becomes cost effective for UK travellers is an accumulated risk of 1.13% assuming a given set of cost parameters. The period a travellers need to remain exposed to achieve this accumulated risk varied from 30 to more than 365 days, depending on the regions intensity of malaria transmission. Conclusions: The cost-benefit analysis identified that chemoprophylaxis use was not a cost-effective policy for travellers to Thailand or the Amazon region of Brazil, but was cost-effective for travel to West Africa and for those staying longer than 45 days in India and Indonesia.

Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission

Background: Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk. Materials and methods: A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival. Results: The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit. Conclusions: Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of PCR for the rapid diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis

Background: Tuberculosis is one of the most prominent health problems in the world, causing 1.75 million deaths each year. Rapid clinical diagnosis is important in patients who have comorbidities such as Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection. Direct microscopy has low sensitivity and culture takes 3 to 6 weeks [1-3]. Therefore, new tools for TB diagnosis are necessary, especially in health settings with a high prevalence of HIV/TB co-infection. Methods: In a public reference TB/HIV hospital in Brazil, we compared the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic strategies for diagnosis of pulmonary TB: Acid fast bacilli smear microscopy by Ziehl-Neelsen staining (AFB smear) plus culture and AFB smear plus colorimetric test (PCR dot-blot). From May 2003 to May 2004, sputum was collected consecutively from PTB suspects attending the Parthenon Reference Hospital. Sputum samples were examined by AFB smear, culture, and PCR dot-blot. The gold standard was a positive culture combined with the definition of clinical PTB. Cost analysis included health services and patient costs. Results: The AFB smear plus PCR dot-blot require the lowest laboratory investment for equipment (US$ 20,000). The total screening costs are 3.8 times for AFB smear plus culture versus for AFB smear plus PCR dot blot costs (US$ 5,635,760 versus US$ 1,498, 660). Costs per correctly diagnosed case were US$ 50,773 and US$ 13,749 for AFB smear plus culture and AFB smear plus PCR dot-blot, respectively. AFB smear plus PCR dot-blot was more cost-effective than AFB smear plus culture, when the cost of treating all correctly diagnosed cases was considered. The cost of returning patients, which are not treated due to a negative result, to the health service, was higher in AFB smear plus culture than for AFB smear plus PCR dot-blot, US$ 374,778,045 and US$ 110,849,055, respectively. Conclusion: AFB smear associated with PCR dot-blot associated has the potential to be a cost-effective tool in the fight against PTB for patients attended in the TB/HIV reference hospital.

Cost effectiveness of OptiMal (R) rapid diagnostic test for malaria in remote areas of the Amazon Region, Brazil

Background: In areas with limited structure in place for microscopy diagnosis, rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) have been demonstrated to be effective. Method: The cost-effectiveness of the Optimal (R) and thick smear microscopy was estimated and compared. Data were collected on remote areas of 12 municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon. Data sources included the National Malaria Control Programme of the Ministry of Health, the National Healthcare System reimbursement table, hospitalization records, primary data collected from the municipalities, and scientific literature. The perspective was that of the Brazilian public health system, the analytical horizon was from the start of fever until the diagnostic results provided to patient and the temporal reference was that of year 2006. The results were expressed in costs per adequately diagnosed cases in 2006 U. S. dollars. Sensitivity analysis was performed considering key model parameters. Results: In the case base scenario, considering 92% and 95% sensitivity for thick smear microscopy to Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, respectively, and 100% specificity for both species, thick smear microscopy is more costly and more effective, with an incremental cost estimated at US$ 549.9 per adequately diagnosed case. In sensitivity analysis, when sensitivity and specificity of microscopy for P. vivax were 0.90 and 0.98, respectively, and when its sensitivity for P. falciparum was 0.83, the RDT was more cost-effective than microscopy. Conclusion: Microscopy is more cost-effective than OptiMal (R) in these remote areas if high accuracy of microscopy is maintained in the field. Decision regarding use of rapid tests for diagnosis of malaria in these areas depends on current microscopy accuracy in the field.

Comparison of different models to estimate genetic parameters for carcass traits in a commercial broiler line

The effect of genetic and non-genetic factors for carcass, breast meat and leg weights, and yields of a commercial broiler line were investigated using the restricted maximum likelihood method, considering four different animal models, including or excluding maternal genetic effect with covariance between direct and maternal genetic effects, and maternal permanent environmental effect. The likelihood ratio test was used to determine the most adequate model for each trait. For carcass, breast, and leg weight, and for carcass and breast yield, maternal genetic and permanent environmental effects as well as the covariance between direct and maternal genetic effects were significant. The estimates of direct and maternal heritability were 0.17 and 0.04 for carcass weight, 0.26 and 0.06 for breast weight, 0.22 and 0.02 for leg weight, 0.32 and 0.02 for carcass yield, and 0.52 and 0.04 for breast yield, respectively. For leg yield, maternal permanent environmental effect was important, in addition to direct genetic effects. For that trait, direct heritability and maternal permanent environmental variance as a proportion of the phenotypic variance were 0.43 and 0.02, respectively. The results indicate that ignoring maternal effects in the models, even though they were of small magnitude (0.02 to 0.06), tended to overestimate direct genetic variance and heritability for all traits.

Cost-effectiveness of Sick Leave Policies for Health Care Workers with Influenza-like Illness, Brazil, 2009

We describe the effect of influenza-like illness (ILI) during the outbreak of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 on health care worker (HCW) absenteeism and compare the effectiveness and cost of 2 sick leave policies for HCWs with suspected influenza. We assessed initial 2-day sick leaves plus reassessment until the HOW was asymptomatic (2-day + reassessment policy), and initial 7-day sick leaves (7-day policy). Sick leaves peaked in August 2009: 3% of the workforce received leave for ILI. Costs during May October reached R$798,051.87 (approximate to US $443,362). The 7-day policy led to a higher monthly rate of sick leave days per 100 HCWs than did the 2-day + reassessment policy (8.72 vs. 3.47 days/100 HCWs; p<0.0001) and resulted in higher costs (US $609 vs. US $1,128 per HCW on leave). ILI affected HCW absenteeism. The 7-day policy was more costly and not more effective in preventing transmission to patients than the 2-day + reassessment policy.