Does using stepwise variable selection to build sequential path analysis models make sense?

Causal inference methods - mainly path analysis and structural equation modeling - offer plant physiologists information about cause-and-effect relationships among plant traits. Recently, an unusual approach to causal inference through stepwise variable selection has been proposed and used in various works on plant physiology. The approach should not be considered correct from a biological point of view. Here, it is explained why stepwise variable selection should not be used for causal inference, and shown what strange conclusions can be drawn based upon the former analysis when one aims to interpret cause-and-effect relationships among plant traits.

Frequência à creche e estado nutricional de pré-escolares: uma revisão sistemática

OBJETIVO: Descrever e comparar estudos longitudinais que permitam inferir sobre a influência da creche no estado nutricional de crianças pré-escolares. FONTES DE DADOS: Revisão sistemática de trabalhos científicos publicados entre janeiro de 1990 e dezembro de 2008. Buscaram-se os estudos nas seguintes bases de dados: Lilacs, Scielo e PubMed. Realizou-se também pesquisa manual dos artigos referenciados. A busca ocorreu no período de março de 2008 a junho de 2009, e os descritores utilizados foram: "creche", "estado nutricional", "antropometria", "consumo alimentar", "anemia" e "alimentação escolar". SÍNTESE DOS DADOS: Na primeira etapa do estudo, obtiveram-se 78 artigos, mas somente sete puderam ser incluídos. Os outros 71 não apresentaram dados para contribuir com o objetivo específico deste estudo. Entre os artigos pesquisados na literatura, existem poucos que permitem inferir sobre a influência que a creche pode ter em relação ao estado nutricional de pré-escolares. Contudo, estudos longitudinais têm mostrado a relação causal entre a presença frequente da criança na creche e a melhoria do estado nutricional. CONCLUSÕES: Existe uma relação positiva entre a frequência da criança na creche e a melhoria do estado nutricional.

CMB in a box: Causal structure and the Fourier-Bessel expansion

This paper makes two points. First, we show that the line-of-sight solution to cosmic microwave anisotropies in Fourier space, even though formally defined for arbitrarily large wavelengths, leads to position-space solutions which only depend on the sources of anisotropies inside the past light cone of the observer. This foretold manifestation of causality in position (real) space happens order by order in a series expansion in powers of the visibility gamma = e(-mu), where mu is the optical depth to Thomson scattering. We show that the contributions of order gamma(N) to the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies are regulated by spacetime window functions which have support only inside the past light cone of the point of observation. Second, we show that the Fourier-Bessel expansion of the physical fields (including the temperature and polarization momenta) is an alternative to the usual Fourier basis as a framework to compute the anisotropies. The viability of the Fourier-Bessel series for treating the CMB is a consequence of the fact that the visibility function becomes exponentially small at redshifts z >> 10(3), effectively cutting off the past light cone and introducing a finite radius inside which initial conditions can affect physical observables measured at our position (x) over right arrow = 0 and time t(0). Hence, for each multipole l there is a discrete tower of momenta k(il) (not a continuum) which can affect physical observables, with the smallest momenta being k(1l) similar to l. The Fourier-Bessel modes take into account precisely the information from the sources of anisotropies that propagates from the initial value surface to the point of observation-no more, no less. We also show that the physical observables (the temperature and polarization maps), and hence the angular power spectra, are unaffected by that choice of basis. This implies that the Fourier-Bessel expansion is the optimal scheme with which one can compute CMB anisotropies.

Inference of gene regulatory networks from time series by Tsallis entropy

Background: The inference of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from large-scale expression profiles is one of the most challenging problems of Systems Biology nowadays. Many techniques and models have been proposed for this task. However, it is not generally possible to recover the original topology with great accuracy, mainly due to the short time series data in face of the high complexity of the networks and the intrinsic noise of the expression measurements. In order to improve the accuracy of GRNs inference methods based on entropy (mutual information), a new criterion function is here proposed. Results: In this paper we introduce the use of generalized entropy proposed by Tsallis, for the inference of GRNs from time series expression profiles. The inference process is based on a feature selection approach and the conditional entropy is applied as criterion function. In order to assess the proposed methodology, the algorithm is applied to recover the network topology from temporal expressions generated by an artificial gene network (AGN) model as well as from the DREAM challenge. The adopted AGN is based on theoretical models of complex networks and its gene transference function is obtained from random drawing on the set of possible Boolean functions, thus creating its dynamics. On the other hand, DREAM time series data presents variation of network size and its topologies are based on real networks. The dynamics are generated by continuous differential equations with noise and perturbation. By adopting both data sources, it is possible to estimate the average quality of the inference with respect to different network topologies, transfer functions and network sizes. Conclusions: A remarkable improvement of accuracy was observed in the experimental results by reducing the number of false connections in the inferred topology by the non-Shannon entropy. The obtained best free parameter of the Tsallis entropy was on average in the range 2.5 <= q <= 3.5 (hence, subextensive entropy), which opens new perspectives for GRNs inference methods based on information theory and for investigation of the nonextensivity of such networks. The inference algorithm and criterion function proposed here were implemented and included in the DimReduction software, which is freely available at http://sourceforge.net/projects/dimreduction and http://code.google.com/p/dimreduction/.

INFERENCE FOR EIGENVALUES AND EIGENVECTORS OF GAUSSIAN SYMMETRIC MATRICES

This article presents maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) and log-likelihood ratio (LLR) tests for the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of Gaussian random symmetric matrices of arbitrary dimension, where the observations are independent repeated samples from one or two populations. These inference problems are relevant in the analysis of diffusion tensor imaging data and polarized cosmic background radiation data, where the observations are, respectively, 3 x 3 and 2 x 2 symmetric positive definite matrices. The parameter sets involved in the inference problems for eigenvalues and eigenvectors are subsets of Euclidean space that are either affine subspaces, embedded submanifolds that are invariant under orthogonal transformations or polyhedral convex cones. We show that for a class of sets that includes the ones considered in this paper, the MLEs of the mean parameter do not depend on the covariance parameters if and only if the covariance structure is orthogonally invariant. Closed-form expressions for the MLEs and the associated LLRs are derived for this covariance structure.

Haplotype distribution of five nuclear genes based on network genealogies and Bayesian inference indicates that Trypanosoma cruzi hybrid strains are polyphyletic

Chagas disease is still a major public health problem in Latin America. Its causative agent, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be typed into three major groups, T. cruzi I, T. cruzi II and hybrids. These groups each have specific genetic characteristics and epidemiological distributions. Several highly virulent strains are found in the hybrid group; their origin is still a matter of debate. The null hypothesis is that the hybrids are of polyphyletic origin, evolving independently from various hybridization events. The alternative hypothesis is that all extant hybrid strains originated from a single hybridization event. We sequenced both alleles of genes encoding EF-1 alpha, actin and SSU rDNA of 26 T. cruzi strains and DHFR-TS and TR of 12 strains. This information was used for network genealogy analysis and Bayesian phylogenies. We found T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II to be monophyletic and that all hybrids had different combinations of T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II haplotypes plus hybrid-specific haplotypes. Bootstrap values (networks) and posterior probabilities (Bayesian phylogenies) of clades supporting the monophyly of hybrids were far below the 95% confidence interval, indicating that the hybrid group is polyphyletic. We hypothesize that T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II are two different species and that the hybrids are extant representatives of independent events of genome hybridization, which sporadically have sufficient fitness to impact on the epidemiology of Chagas disease.

Development of novel microsatellites from Moniliophthora perniciosa, causal agent of the witches` broom disease of Theobroma cacao

Moniliophthora perniciosa is the causal agent of the witches` broom disease of cacao. Based on available genomic sequences, we identified 30 new microsatellite loci, which were analysed using 50 isolates from four populations sampled over a wide geographical area in Brazil, including three populations from the Amazon, the fungal putative centre of diversity, plus one from Bahia. Nine loci were polymorphic, with an average of 2.9 alleles per locus. The level of polymorphism observed was low, but these markers may allow the evaluation of pathogen diversity and the establishment of molecular standards for isolate fingerprinting to support cacao breeding.

A calibration approach based on Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy inference system for digital electronic compasses

Recently, the development of industrial processes brought on the outbreak of technologically complex systems. This development generated the necessity of research relative to the mathematical techniques that have the capacity to deal with project complexities and validation. Fuzzy models have been receiving particular attention in the area of nonlinear systems identification and analysis due to it is capacity to approximate nonlinear behavior and deal with uncertainty. A fuzzy rule-based model suitable for the approximation of many systems and functions is the Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model. IS fuzzy models are nonlinear systems described by a set of if then rules which gives local linear representations of an underlying system. Such models can approximate a wide class of nonlinear systems. In this paper a performance analysis of a system based on IS fuzzy inference system for the calibration of electronic compass devices is considered. The contribution of the evaluated IS fuzzy inference system is to reduce the error obtained in data acquisition from a digital electronic compass. For the reliable operation of the TS fuzzy inference system, adequate error measurements must be taken. The error noise must be filtered before the application of the IS fuzzy inference system. The proposed method demonstrated an effectiveness of 57% at reducing the total error based on considered tests. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Novel sources of witches` broom resistance (causal agent Moniliophthora perniciosa) from natural populations of Theobroma cacao from the Brazilian Amazon

Witches` broom is a severe disease of Theobroma cacao L. (cacao), caused by the basidiomycete Moniliophthora perniciosa. The use of resistant cultivars is the ultimate method of control, but there are limited sources of resistance. Further, resistance from the most widely used source (`Scavina 6`) has been overcome after a few years of deployment. New sources of resistance have been intensively searched for in the Amazon basin. Here, we evaluated for witches` broom resistance, cacao accessions from various natural cacao populations originally collected in the Brazilian Amazon. Resistance of 43 families was evaluated under nursery and/or field conditions by artificial or natural infection, respectively, based on disease incidence. Screening for resistance by artificial inoculation under nursery conditions appeared to be efficient in identifying these novel resistance sources, confirmed by natural field evaluation over a nine-year period. The increase in natural field infection of `Scavina 6` was clearly demonstrated. Among the evaluated families with the least witches` broom incidence, there were accessions originally collected from distinct river basins, including the Jamari river (`CAB 0371`; `CAB 0388`; `CAB 0392`; and `CAB 0410`); Acre (`CAB 0169`); Javari (`CAB 0352`); Solimes (`CAB 0270`); and from the Purus river basin, the two most outstanding resistant accessions, `CAB 0208` and `CAB 0214`. The large genetic diversity found in cacao populations occurring at river basins from Acre and Amazonas states, Brazil, increased the chance that the selected resistant accessions would be genetically more dissimilar, and represent distinct sources of resistance to M. perniciosa from `Scavina 6`.

Isolation and characterization of microsatellite loci in Colletotrichum acutatum, the causal agent of postbloom fruit drop on citrus

From a genomic enriched library, we developed 27 primer pairs from microsatellite flanking sequences for Colletotrichum acutatum, associated to postbloom fruit drop disease on citrus. Loci were characterized using 40 monosporic C. acutatum isolates. Nine primer pairs successfully amplified polymorphic microsatellite regions, with 3-6 alleles per locus, and mean heterozygosities ranging 0.093-0.590 across loci. The suitability of these primers was investigated in four Colletotrichum species as well. These microsatellite markers will be useful for genetic analyses and epidemiological studies of C. acutatum.

Volatile organic compounds produced by Saccharomyces cerevisiae inhibit the in vitro development of Guignardia citricarpa, the causal agent of citrus black spot

Due to the low chemical control effectiveness of citrus black spot, caused by the fungus Guignardia citricarpa at postharvest, and to the search for alternative control methods, this study aimed to evaluate the in vitro effect of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), produced by yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, on G. citricarpa. It was observed that the yeast strains evaluated acted as antagonists by VOC production, whose maximum inhibitory capacity was as high as 87.2%. The presence of fermentable carbon sources in the medium was essential for the bioactive VOC production by the yeast. The analysis of VOCs produced in PDA medium by SPME-GC-MS indicated the presence of high quantities of alcohols as well as esters. An artificial VOC mixture prepared on the basis of the composition of the VOCs mimicked the inhibitory effects of the natural VOCs released by S. cerevisiae. Thus, the VOCs produced by the yeast or the artificial mixtures can be a promising control method for citrus black spot or others postharvest diseases.

Colletotrichum gloeosporioides, a new causal agent of citrus post-bloom fruit drop

Citrus post-bloom fruit drop (caused by Colletotrichum acutatum) frequently occurs in the southwestern region of So Paulo State, Brazil. A survey of Colletotrichum isolates associated with symptoms of post-bloom fruit drop in So Paulo State showed C. gloeosporioides in addition to C. acutatum. The objectives of this study were to confirm the identification of C. gloeosporioides isolated from symptomatic citrus flowers, to test the pathogenicity of C. gloeosporioides isolates, to compare the development of disease caused by C. gloeosporioides and C. acutatum, and to determine the frequency of C. gloeosporioides in a sample of isolates obtained from symptomatic flowers in different regions of So Paulo State. Through the use of species-specific primers by PCR, 17.3% of 139 isolates were C. gloeosporioides, and the remaining 82.7% were C. acutatum. The pathogenicity tests, carried out in 3-year old potted plants of sweet oranges indicated that both species caused typical symptoms of the disease including blossom blight and persistent calyces. Incubation periods (3.5 and 3.9 days, respectively, for C. acutatum and C. gloeosporioides) and fruit sets (6.7 and 8.5%, respectively for C. acutatum and C. gloeosporioides) were similar for both species. The incidences of blossom blight and persistent calyces were higher on plants inoculated with C. acutatum than in those inoculated with C. gloeosporioides. Conidial germination was similar for both species under different temperatures and wetness periods. Under optimal conditions, appressorium formation and melanisation were higher for C. gloeosporioides than for C. acutatum. These results indicated that Colletotrichum gloeosporioides is a new causal agent of post-bloom fruit drop.

Mycovirus in Pseudocercospora griseola, the causal agent of angular leaf spot in common bean

Pseudocercospora griseola (Sacc.) Crous &. Braun is a widespread fungal phytopathogen that is responsible for angular leaf spot in the common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.). A number of fungal phytopathogens have been shown to harbour mycoviruses, and this possibility was investigated in populations of Pseudocercospora griseola. The total nucleic acid extracts of 61 fungal isolates were subjected to agarose gel electrophoresis. Small fragments (800-4800 bp) could be identified in 42 of the samples. The presence of dsRNA in isolate Ig838 was confirmed by treatment of total nucleic acid with DNase, RNase A, and nuclease S I. Transmission electron microscopy revealed the presence of viral-like particles 40 nm in diameter in the mycelia of 2 fungal isolates, namely 29-3 and Ig838. The transmission of dsRNA by means of conidia was 100% for isolate 29-3, but there was loss of 1-6 fragments of dsRNA in monosporic colonies of isolate Ig848. Cycloheximide treatment failed to inhibit the mycovirus in isolate 29-3, but proved efficient in the elimination of the 2.2, 2.0, 1.8, 1.2 and 1.0 kb fragments in 2 colonies of isolate Ig848. The occurrence of a mycovirus in Pseudocercospora griseola was demonstrated for the first time in the present study.

Molecular characterization of the Hepatitis B virus genotypes in Colombia: A Bayesian inference on the genotype F

Hepatitis B is a worldwide health problem affecting about 2 billion people and more than 350 million are chronic carriers of the virus. Nine HBV genotypes (A to I) have been described. The geographical distribution of HBV genotypes is not completely understood due to the limited number of samples from some parts of the world. One such example is Colombia, in which few studies have described the HBV genotypes. In this study, we characterized HBV genotypes in 143 HBsAg-positive volunteer blood donors from Colombia. A fragment of 1306 bp partially comprising HBsAg and the DNA polymerase coding regions (S/POL) was amplified and sequenced. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses were conducted using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to obtain the maximum clade credibility (MCC) tree using BEAST v.1.5.3. Of all samples, 68 were positive and 52 were successfully sequenced. Genotype F was the most prevalent in this population (77%) - subgenotypes F3 (75%) and Fib (2%). Genotype G (7.7%) and subgenotype A2 (15.3%) were also found. Genotype G sequence analysis suggests distinct introductions of this genotype in the country. Furthermore, we estimated the time of the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) for each HBV/F subgenotype and also for Colombian F3 sequences using two different datasets: (i) 77 sequences comprising 1306 bp of S/POL region and (ii) 283 sequences comprising 681 bp of S/POL region. We also used two other previously estimated evolutionary rates: (i) 2.60 x 10(-4) s/s/y and (ii) 1.5 x 10(-5) s/s/y. Here we report the HBV genotypes circulating in Colombia and estimated the TMRCA for the four different subgenotypes of genotype F. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vitamin D-Resistant Rickets Type II-A, Basal Ganglia Calcification, and Catatonia: A Casual or Causal Relationship?

Background: Vitamin D-resistant rickets type-IIA (VDRR-IIA) is a rare, congenital, metabolic disorder characterized by hypocalcemia, rickets, and alopecia. There are reports correlating calcium-metabolic disorders with basal ganglia calcification (BGC) and neuropsychiatric symptoms. Objective: The authors document and discuss the relationships of these phenomena. Method: The authors describe a patient born with VDRR-IIA who subsequently developed BGC at age 15, and catatonic symptoms of progressive severity at age 16. Results: There appeared to be a positive correlation between the severity of BGC and neuropsychiatric symptoms. Discussion: This is the first time VDRR-IIA, BGC, and catatonia have been reported in a patient, and the authors discuss the relationship among the conditions. (Psychosomatics 2009; 50: 420-424)