Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Pricing corporate bonds in Brazil: 2000 to 2004

This paper analyzes the factors that influence the issuing price of debentures in Brazil in the period from year 2000 to 2004, applying a factor model, in which exogenous variables explain return and price behavior. The variables in this study include: rating, choice of index, maturity, country risk, basic interest rate, long-term and short-term rate spread, the stock market index, and the foreign exchange rate. Results indicate that the index variable, probability of default and bond`s maturity influence pricing and points out associations of long-term bonds with better rating issues. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

FOOD, FUEL, FORESTS, AND THE PRICING OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science[DE-FG02-94ER61937]

Electrophysiological characteristics of the Marshall bundle in humans

BACKGROUND Marshall bundles (MBs) are the muscle bundles within the ligament of Marshall. OBJECTIVE This trial sought to the electrophysiological characteristics of the MB and the anatomical connections between MB and left atrium (LA) in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS We enrolled 72 patients (male: female 59: 13, age 59.9 +/- 9.4 years) who underwent MB mapping and ablation for AF. MB mapping was done via an endocardial or epicardial approach during sinus rhythm and AF. RESULTS Recordings were successful in 64 of 72 patients (89%). A single connection was noted in 11 of 64 patients between the MB and the coronary sinus (CS) muscle sleeves. The MB recordings showed distinct MB potentials with a proximal-to-distal activation pattern during sinus rhythm. During AF, organized passive activations and dissociated slow MB ectopic activities were commonly observed in this type of connection. Double connections to both CS and LA around left pulmonary veins were noted in 23 of 64 patients (36%). After the ablation of the distal connection, MB recording showed typical double potentials as in single connection. Multiple connections were noted in 30 of 64 patients (47%). During sinus rhythm, the earliest activation was in the middle of the MB. The activation patterns were irregular and variable in each patient. During AF, rapid and fractionated complex activations were noted in all patients of this group. CONCLUSION We documented 3 different types of MB-LA connections. Rapid and fractionated activations were most commonly observed in the MB that had multiple LA connections.

The medial forebrain bundle mediates cardiovascular responses to electrical stimulation of the medial prefrontal cortex

The medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) is involved in cardiovascular control. MPFC electrical stimulation has been reported to cause depressor and bradycardic responses in anesthetized rats. Although the pathway involved is yet unknown, there is evidence indicating the existence of a relay in the lateral hypothalamus (LH). The medial forebrain bundle (MFB) that courses in the lateral portion of the LH carries the vast majority of telencephalic afferent as well efferent projections, including those from the MPFC. To evaluate if the hypotensive pathway originating in the MPFC courses the MFB, we studied the effect of coronal or sagittal knife cuts through the LH and other brain areas on the cardiovascular responses to MPFC electrical stimulation. Knife cuts were performed using blades I to 6 mm wide. Results indicate that the neural pathway descending from the MFB decussates early in the vicinity of MPFC, crossing the midline within the corpus callosurn and yielding two descending pathways that travel rostro-caudally in the lateral portion of the LH, within the MFB. The decussation was confirmed by histological analysis of brain sections processed after the injection of biotinilated dextran amine in the site of the stimulation in the MPFC. Because knife cuts through the LH ipsilateral had minimal effects on the cardiovascular responses and knife cuts performed contralateral to the stimulated MPFC had no effect on the response to MPFC stimulation, data indicate that the contralateral limb of the pathway may be only activated as an alternative pathway when the ipsilateral pathway is blocked. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of estrogen neuroprotective effect on nigrostriatal dopaminergic neurons following 6-hydroxydopamine injection into the substantia nigra pars compacta or the medial forebrain bundle

Studies involving estrogen treatment of ovariectomized rats or mice have attributed to this hormone a neuroprotective effect on the substantia nigra pars compacta (SNpc) neurons. We investigated the effect of estradiol replacement in ovariectomized rats on the survival of dopaminergic mesencephalic cell and the integrity of their projections to the striatum after microinjections of 1 mu g of 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA) into the right SNpc or medial forebrain bundle (MFB). Estradiol replacement did not prevent the reduction either in the striatal concentrations of DA and metabolites or in the number of nigrostriatal dopaminergic neurons following lesion with 1 mu g of 6-OHDA into the SNpc. Nevertheless, estradiol treatment reduced the decrease in striatal DA following injection of 1 mu g of 6-OHDA into the MFB. Results suggest therefore that estrogen protect nigrostriatal dopaminergic neurons against a 6-OHDA injury to the MFB but not the SNpc. This may be due to the distinct degree of lesions promoted in these different rat models of Parkinson`s disease.

Minimal Lagrangian surfaces in the tangent bundle of a Riemannian surface

Given an oriented Riemannian surface (Sigma, g), its tangent bundle T Sigma enjoys a natural pseudo-Kahler structure, that is the combination of a complex structure 2, a pseudo-metric G with neutral signature and a symplectic structure Omega. We give a local classification of those surfaces of T Sigma which are both Lagrangian with respect to Omega and minimal with respect to G. We first show that if g is non-flat, the only such surfaces are affine normal bundles over geodesics. In the flat case there is, in contrast, a large set of Lagrangian minimal surfaces, which is described explicitly. As an application, we show that motions of surfaces in R(3) or R(1)(3) induce Hamiltonian motions of their normal congruences, which are Lagrangian surfaces in TS(2) or TH(2) respectively. We relate the area of the congruence to a second-order functional F = f root H(2) - K dA on the original surface. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental formaldehyde analysis by active diffusive sampling with a bundle of polypropylene porous capillaries followed by capillary zone electrophoretic separation and contactless conductivity detection

Compared to other volatile carbonylic compounds present in outdoor air, formaldehyde (CH2O) is the most toxic, deserving more attention in terms of indoor and outdoor air quality legislation and control. The analytical determination of CH2O in air still presents challenges due to the low-level concentration (in the sub-ppb range) and its variation with sampling site and time. Of the many available analytical methods for carbonylic compounds, the most widespread one is the time consuming collection in cartridges impregnated with 2,4-dinitrophenylhydrazine followed by the analysis of the formed hydrazones by HPLC. The present work proposes the use of polypropylene hollow porous capillary fibers to achieve efficient CH2O collection. The Oxyphan (R) fiber (designed for blood oxygenation) was chosen for this purpose because it presents good mechanical resistance, high density of very fine pores and high ratio of collection area to volume of the acceptor fluid in the tube, all favorable for the development of air sampling apparatus. The collector device consists of a Teflon pipe inside of which a bundle of polypropylene microporous capillary membranes was introduced. While the acceptor passes at a low flow rate through the capillaries, the sampled air circulates around the fibers, impelled by a low flow membrane pump (of the type used for aquariums ventilation). The coupling of this sampling technique with the selective and quantitative determination of CH2O, in the form of hydroxymethanesulfonate (HMS) after derivatization with HSO3-, by capillary electrophoresis with capacitively coupled contactless conductivity detection (CE-(CD)-D-4) enabled the development of a complete analytical protocol for the CH2O evaluation in air. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Lesion of the subthalamic nucleus reverses motor deficits but not death of nigrostriatal dopaminergic neurons in a rat 6-hydroxydopamine-lesion model of Parkinson's disease

The objective of the present study was to determine whether lesion of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) promoted by N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) would rescue nigrostriatal dopaminergic neurons after unilateral 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA) injection into the medial forebrain bundle (MFB). Initially, 16 mg 6-OHDA (6-OHDA group) or vehicle (artificial cerebrospinal fluid - aCSF; Sham group) was infused into the right MFB of adult male Wistar rats. Fifteen days after surgery, the 6-OHDA and SHAM groups were randomly subdivided and received ipsilateral injection of either 60 mM NMDA or aCSF in the right STN. Additionally, a control group was not submitted to stereotaxic surgery. Five groups of rats were studied: 6-OHDA/NMDA, 6-OHDA/Sham, Sham/NMDA, Sham/Sham, and Control. Fourteen days after injection of 6-OHDA, rats were submitted to the rotational test induced by apomorphine (0.1 mg/kg, ip) and to the open-field test. The same tests were performed again 14 days after NMDA-induced lesion of the STN. The STN lesion reduced the contralateral turns induced by apomorphine and blocked the progression of motor impairment in the open-field test in 6-OHDA-treated rats. However, lesion of the STN did not prevent the reduction of striatal concentrations of dopamine and metabolites or the number of nigrostriatal dopaminergic neurons after 6-OHDA lesion. Therefore, STN lesion is able to reverse motor deficits after severe 6-OHDA-induced lesion of the nigrostriatal pathway, but does not protect or rescue dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars compacta.

Reconstrução do ligamento cruzado anterior com a técnica de duplo feixe - avaliação no laboratório de biomecânica

OBJETIVO: O objetivo deste estudo é descrever a metodologia da análise da rotação do joelho utilizando instrumentos do laboratório de biomecânica e apresentar os resultados preliminares de um estudo comparativo com pacientes submetidos à reconstrução do ligamento cruzado anterior com a técnica de duplo feixe. MÉTODOS: Descreveu-se o protocolo atualmente utilizado em nosso laboratório e realizou-se a análise cinemática tridimensional e medida da amplitude de rotação do joelho de oito pacientes normais (grupo controle) e 12 pacientes operados com a técnica de duplo feixe em três tarefas no laboratório de biomecânica. RESULTADOS: Não indicam diferenças significativas entre os lados operados e não operados em relação às amplitudes médias da marcha, da marcha com mudança de direção ou da marcha com mudança de direção ao descer a escada (p > 0,13). CONCLUSÕES: Os resultados preliminares não demonstraram diferença da técnica de reconstrução de LCA em duplo feixe em relação ao lado contralateral e ao grupo controle.

Aspectos estratégicos e econômicos da política de bonificação em quantidade de produto

ste trabalho objetiva identificar a percepção dos gestores de controladoria de indústrias sobre os aspectos estratégicos e econômicos da decisão de bonificação em quantidade de produto. A premissa é que os resultados econômicos gerados pela decisão de desconto no preço e de bonificação em quantidade de produto são iguais, considerando a mesma quantidade de produto entregue ao cliente. Com base no banco de dados da FIPECAFI- FEA-USP, analisaram-se 91 questionários encaminhados a controllers atuantes em diversos setores. Os resultados revelam: 1) um número muito significativo de empresas da amostra selecionada adota a bonificação em produtos; 2) a área comercial é a principal responsável por essa decisão; e 3) identificação da percepção dos controllers sobre aspectos decisórios de bonificação em quantidade de produtos.

Time-resolved fluorescence spectroscopy of white-spot caries in human enamel

The objective is to differentiate noncavitated caries enamel through time-resolved fluorescence and to find excitation and emission parameters that can be applied in future clinical practice for detection of caries lesions that are not clearly visible to the professional. Sixteen human teeth with noncavitiated white-spot caries were selected for this work. Fluorescence intensity decay was measured by using an apparatus based on the time-correlated single-photon counting method. An optical fiber bundle was employed for sample excitation (440 nm), and the fluorescence collected by the same bundle (500 nm) was registered. The average lifetime for sound enamel was 7: 93 +/- 0: 09, 2: 46 +/- 0: 04, and 0: 51 +/- 0: 02 ns, whereas for the carious enamel the lifetimes were 4: 84 +/- 0: 06, 1: 35 +/- 0: 02, and 0: 16 +/- 0: 01 ns. It was concluded that it is possible to differentiate between carious and sound regions by time-resolved fluorescence and that, although the origin of enamel fluorescence is still uncertain, the lifetime values seem to be typical of fluorophores like collagen I. (C) 2010 Optical Society of America

Modeling and experimental study of nucleate boiling on a vertical array of horizontal plain tubes

An investigation of nucleate boiling on a vertical array of horizontal plain tubes is presented in this paper. Experiments were performed with refrigerant RI 23 at reduced pressures varying from 0.022 to 0.64, tube pitch to diameter ratios of 1.32, 1.53 and 2.00, and heat fluxes from 0.5 to 40 kW/m(2). Brass tubes with external diameters of 19.05 mm and average roughness of 0.12 mu m were used in the experiments. The effect of the tube spacing on the local heat transfer coefficient along the tube array was negligible within the present range of experimental conditions. For partial nucleate boiling, characterized by low heat fluxes, and low reduced pressures, the tube positioning shows a remarkable effect on the heat transfer coefficient. Based on these data, a general correlation for the prediction of the nucleate boiling heat transfer coefficient on a vertical array of horizontal tubes under flooded conditions was proposed. According to this correlation, the ratio between the heat transfer coefficients of a given tube and the lowest tube in the array depends only on the tube row number, the reduced pressure and the heat flux. By using the proposed correlation, most of the experimental heat transfer coefficients obtained in the present study were predicted within +/- 15%. The new correlation compares reasonably well with independent data from the literature. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.