Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Health in Brazil 6 Health conditions and health-policy innovations in Brazil: the way forward

Brazil is a large complex country that is undergoing rapid economic, social, and environmental change In this Series of six articles, we have reported important improvements in health status and life expectancy, which can be ascribed largely to progress in social determinants of health and to implementation of a comprehensive national health system with strong social participation. Many challenges remain, however. Socioeconomic and regional disparities are still unacceptably large, reflecting the fact that much progress is still needed to improve basic living conditions for a large proportion of the population. New health problems arise as a result of urbanisation and social and environmental change, and some old health issues remain unabated. Administration of a complex, decentralised public-health system, in which a large share of services is contracted out to the private sector, together with many private insurance providers, inevitably causes conflict and contradiction. The challenge is ultimately political, and we conclude with a call for action that requires continuous engagement by Brazilian society as a whole in securing the right to health for all Brazilian people.

O difícil acesso a serviços de média complexidade do SUS: o caso da cidade de São Paulo, Brasil

O acesso aos serviços de média complexidade tem sido apontado, por gestores e pesquisadores, como um dos entraves para a efetivação da integralidade do SUS. Este artigo teve o objetivo de avaliar mecanismos utilizados pela gestão do SUS, no município de São Paulo, para garantir acesso à assistência de média complexidade, durante o período de 2005 a 2008. Optou-se pela estratégia de estudo de caso, utilizando as seguintes fontes de evidência: entrevistas com gestores; grupo focal com usuários e observação participante. Utilizouas técnica de análise temática, a partir do referencial teórico da integralidade da assistência, na dimensão da organização de serviços. Buscou-se descrever os caminhos percorridos pelos usuários para acessar os serviços da média complexidade, a partir da visão dos gestores e dos próprios usuários. A média complexidade foi identificada, pelos gestores, como o "gargalo" do SUS e um dos principais obstáculos para a construção da integralidade. Para enfrentar essa situação, o gestor municipal investiu na informatização dos serviços, como medida isolada e, ainda, sem considerar a necessidade dos usuários. Sendo assim, essa incorporação tecnológica teve pouco impacto na melhoria do acesso, o que se confirmou no relato dos usuários. Discute-se que para o enfrentamento de um problema tão complexo são necessárias ações articuladas, tanto no âmbito da política de saúde, quanto da organização dos serviços, bem como a (re)organização do processo de trabalho em todos os níveis do sistema de saúde.

O difícil acesso a serviços de média complexidade do SUS

O acesso aos serviços de média complexidade tem sido apontado, por gestores e pesquisadores, como um dos entraves para a efetivação da integralidade do SUS. Este artigo teve o objetivo de avaliar mecanismos utilizados pela gestão do SUS, no município de São Paulo, para garantir acesso à assistência de média complexidade, durante o período de 2005 a 2008. Optou-se pela estratégia de estudo de caso, utilizando as seguintes fontes de evidência: entrevistas com gestores; grupo focal com usuários e observação participante. Utilizouas técnica de análise temática, a partir do referencial teórico da integralidade da assistência, na dimensão da organização de serviços. Buscou-se descrever os caminhos percorridos pelos usuários para acessar os serviços da média complexidade, a partir da visão dos gestores e dos próprios usuários. A média complexidade foi identificada, pelos gestores, como o "gargalo" do SUS e um dos principais obstáculos para a construção da integralidade. Para enfrentar essa situação, o gestor municipal investiu na informatização dos serviços, como medida isolada e, ainda, sem considerar a necessidade dos usuários. Sendo assim, essa incorporação tecnológica teve pouco impacto na melhoria do acesso, o que se confirmou no relato dos usuários. Discute-se que para o enfrentamento de um problema tão complexo são necessárias ações articuladas, tanto no âmbito da política de saúde, quanto da organização dos serviços, bem como a (re)organização do processo de trabalho em todos os níveis do sistema de saúde

Influence of the technological innovation degree on knowledge creation: Evidence from a Brazilian firm

The aim of this paper is to analyze the process of knowledge creation when developing high technology products in projects having various innovation degrees. The main contribution to the literature is the systematization of an approach to analyze knowledge creation during the product innovation process. Three innovation projects developed by a company specialized in industrial automation systems were investigated using case studies. The knowledge creation processes, which took place in these three projects, were analyzed comparatively. As a distinctive result of this paper, the main features of the knowledge creation processes influenced by a degree of technological innovation are identified.

Brazilian foreign policy: Old and new paths as regards institutional aspects, multilateralism and foreign policy towards the South

This paper emphasizes the important changes in Brazilian foreign policy after Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took tip the power in 2002. The paper defends the idea that it is not possible to argue that there were deep changes in comparison to Cardoso's administration. However, evidence shows that new things are happening as regards the design of a more active and clear foreign action line which led to institutional changes and to more incisive multilateral paths. This results both from the political profile of the direct operators of foreign policy and the aims of lite presidential diplomacy, The hypothesis dealt with on this paper consists on the fact that Lula's administration has not fully broken with the old administration practices, however the aims of global and regional integration are being plotted more clearly and with a higher degree of activism. This becomes clear in three aspects of the Brazilian foreign policy: the institutional framework, the practice of multilateralism and the foreign policy towards the South, the three topics analyzed in this paper.

Cost risk benefit analysis to support chemoprophylaxis policy for travellers to malaria endemic countries

Background: In a number of malaria endemic regions, tourists and travellers face a declining risk of travel associated malaria, in part due to successful malaria control. Many millions of visitors to these regions are recommended, via national and international policy, to use chemoprophylaxis which has a well recognized morbidity profile. To evaluate whether current malaria chemo-prophylactic policy for travellers is cost effective when adjusted for endemic transmission risk and duration of exposure. a framework, based on partial cost-benefit analysis was used Methods: Using a three component model combining a probability component, a cost component and a malaria risk component, the study estimated health costs avoided through use of chemoprophylaxis and costs of disease prevention (including adverse events and pre-travel advice for visits to five popular high and low malaria endemic regions) and malaria transmission risk using imported malaria cases and numbers of travellers to malarious countries. By calculating the minimal threshold malaria risk below which the economic costs of chemoprophylaxis are greater than the avoided health costs we were able to identify the point at which chemoprophylaxis would be economically rational. Results: The threshold incidence at which malaria chemoprophylaxis policy becomes cost effective for UK travellers is an accumulated risk of 1.13% assuming a given set of cost parameters. The period a travellers need to remain exposed to achieve this accumulated risk varied from 30 to more than 365 days, depending on the regions intensity of malaria transmission. Conclusions: The cost-benefit analysis identified that chemoprophylaxis use was not a cost-effective policy for travellers to Thailand or the Amazon region of Brazil, but was cost-effective for travel to West Africa and for those staying longer than 45 days in India and Indonesia.

Psychometric properties of the Child Health Assessment Questionnaire (CHAQ) applied to children and adolescents with cerebral palsy

Background: Cerebral palsy (CP) patients have motor limitations that can affect functionality and abilities for activities of daily living (ADL). Health related quality of life and health status instruments validated to be applied to these patients do not directly approach the concepts of functionality or ADL. The Child Health Assessment Questionnaire (CHAQ) seems to be a good instrument to approach this dimension, but it was never used for CP patients. The purpose of the study was to verify the psychometric properties of CHAQ applied to children and adolescents with CP. Methods: Parents or guardians of children and adolescents with CP, aged 5 to 18 years, answered the CHAQ. A healthy group of 314 children and adolescents was recruited during the validation of the CHAQ Brazilian-version. Data quality, reliability and validity were studied. The motor function was evaluated by the Gross Motor Function Measure (GMFM). Results: Ninety-six parents/guardians answered the questionnaire. The age of the patients ranged from 5 to 17.9 years (average: 9.3). The rate of missing data was low(< 9.3%). The floor effect was observed in two domains, being higher only in the visual analogue scales (<= 35.5%). The ceiling effect was significant in all domains and particularly high in patients with quadriplegia (81.8 to 90.9%) and extrapyramidal (45.4 to 91.0%). The Cronbach alpha coefficient ranged from 0.85 to 0.95. The validity was appropriate: for the discriminant validity the correlation of the disability index with the visual analogue scales was not significant; for the convergent validity CHAQ disability index had a strong correlation with the GMFM (0.77); for the divergent validity there was no correlation between GMFM and the pain and overall evaluation scales; for the criterion validity GMFM as well as CHAQ detected differences in the scores among the clinical type of CP (p < 0.01); for the construct validity, the patients' disability index score (mean: 2.16; SD: 0.72) was higher than the healthy group ( mean: 0.12; SD: 0.23)(p < 0.01). Conclusion: CHAQ reliability and validity were adequate to this population. However, further studies are necessary to verify the influence of the ceiling effect on the responsiveness of the instrument.

Technological advances and mechanistic basis for fungal biopulping

Biopulping fundamentals, technology and mechanisms are reviewed in this article. Mill evaluation of Eucalyptus grandis wood chips biotreated by Ceriporiopsis subvermispora on a 50-tonne pilot-plant demonstrated that equivalent energy savings can be obtained in lab- and mill-scale biopulping. Some drawbacks concerning limited improvements in pulp strength and contamination of the chip pile with opportunist fungi have been observed. The use of pre-cultured wood chips as inoculum seed for the biotreatment process minimized contamination problems related to the use of blended mycelium and corn-steep liquor in the inoculation step. Alkaline wash restored part of the brightness in biopulps and marketable brightness values were obtained by one-stage bleaching with 5% H2O2 when bio-TMP pulps were under evaluation. Considering the current scenario, the understanding of biopulping mechanisms has gained renewed attention because more resistant and competitive fungal species could be selected with basis on a function-directed screening project. A series of studies aimed to elucidate structural changes in lignin during wood biodegradation by C. subvermispora had indicated that lignin depolymerization occurs during initial stages of wood biotreatment. Aromatic hydroxyls did not increase with the split of aryl-ether linkages, suggesting that the ether-cleavage-products remain as quitione-type structures. On the other hand, cellulose is more resistant to the attack by C subvermispora. MnP-initiated lipid peroxidation reactions have been proposed to explain degradation of non-phenolic lignin substructures by C subvermispora, while the lack of cellobiohydrolases and the occurrence of systems able to suppress Fenton`s reaction in the cultures have explained non-efficient cellulose degradation by this biopulping fungus. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relationship between technological properties and slab surface roughness of siliceous dimension stones

Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP)[06/52521-0]

Risk-based decision making method for maintenance policy selection of thermal power plant equipment

This study presents a decision-making method for maintenance policy selection of power plants equipment. The method is based on risk analysis concepts. The method first step consists in identifying critical equipment both for power plant operational performance and availability based on risk concepts. The second step involves the proposal of a potential maintenance policy that could be applied to critical equipment in order to increase its availability. The costs associated with each potential maintenance policy must be estimated, including the maintenance costs and the cost of failure that measures the critical equipment failure consequences for the power plant operation. Once the failure probabilities and the costs of failures are estimated, a decision-making procedure is applied to select the best maintenance policy. The decision criterion is to minimize the equipment cost of failure, considering the costs and likelihood of occurrence of failure scenarios. The method is applied to the analysis of a lubrication oil system used in gas turbines journal bearings. The turbine has more than 150 MW nominal output, installed in an open cycle thermoelectric power plant. A design modification with the installation of a redundant oil pump is proposed for lubricating oil system availability improvement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shedding light on technological development in Brazil

We try to shed some light oil the question of wily technology-intensive businesses often fail in less-developed countries and under what circumstances they are likely to be a Success from the perspective of both domestic and export markets. The answers were drawn from a set of empirical evidences from Brazilian firms applying photonics technologies. Sonic of the issues faced by them are related to the question of state versus private initiative, entering traditional versus niche market, and technology transfer versus product development management. In overall, we concluded that weakness of the institutions and inadequacy of social and organizational demography play a key role in explaining to a large extent wily countries differ in technological development and diffusion. In this context, we point out obstacles, which must be removed in order to make public policies and firm`s achievements more efficient. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Policy Iteration Algorithm for Average Continuous Control of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes

The main goal of this paper is to apply the so-called policy iteration algorithm (PIA) for the long run average continuous control problem of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP`s) taking values in a general Borel space and with compact action space depending on the state variable. In order to do that we first derive some important properties for a pseudo-Poisson equation associated to the problem. In the sequence it is shown that the convergence of the PIA to a solution satisfying the optimality equation holds under some classical hypotheses and that this optimal solution yields to an optimal control strategy for the average control problem for the continuous-time PDMP in a feedback form.

Technological characterization of phosphate ore types from the Salitre Alkaline Complex, MG - Fosfertil Area

The present study was carried out on six different ore types from the Salitre Alkaline Complex aiming to determine their mineralogical composition and the major features that are relevant in the mineral processing. The P(2)O(5) grades vary from 9 to 25%. The slime content (-0, 020 mm) varies between 20 and 34% (w/w) and carries 17-22% of the P(2)O(5) content. The samples essentially consist of apatite, iron oxi-hydroxides, ilmenite, clay minerals, carbonate, quartz, pyroxene, perovskite, secondary phosphates and other minor accessory minerals. Below 0.21 mm, apatite essentially occurs in free particles showing a clean surface or a weak coating of it-on oxi-hydroxides; the highly covered apatite (not recoverable by flotation) varies from 6 to 9%. In the deslimed fraction (above 0.020 mm) more than 97% of the total phosphor content occurs as apatite; the estimated P 2 0 5 potential recovery in flotation concentration is over 90% (71-76% overall recovery).