Complexity and anisotropy in host morphology make populations less susceptible to epidemic outbreaks

One of the challenges in epidemiology is to account for the complex morphological structure of hosts such as plant roots, crop fields, farms, cells, animal habitats and social networks, when the transmission of infection occurs between contiguous hosts. Morphological complexity brings an inherent heterogeneity in populations and affects the dynamics of pathogen spread in such systems. We have analysed the influence of realistically complex host morphology on the threshold for invasion and epidemic outbreak in an SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemiological model. We show that disorder expressed in the host morphology and anisotropy reduces the probability of epidemic outbreak and thus makes the system more resistant to epidemic outbreaks. We obtain general analytical estimates for minimally safe bounds for an invasion threshold and then illustrate their validity by considering an example of host data for branching hosts (salamander retinal ganglion cells). Several spatial arrangements of hosts with different degrees of heterogeneity have been considered in order to separately analyse the role of shape complexity and anisotropy in the host population. The estimates for invasion threshold are linked to morphological characteristics of the hosts that can be used for determining the threshold for invasion in practical applications.

Rumor Propagation Model: An Equilibrium Study

Compartmental epidemiological models have been developed since the 1920s and successfully applied to study the propagation of infectious diseases. Besides, due to their structure, in the 1960s an interesting version of these models was developed to clarify some aspects of rumor propagation, considering that spreading an infectious disease or disseminating information is analogous phenomena. Here, in an analogy with the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) epidemiological model, the ISS (Ignorant-Spreader-Stifler) rumor spreading model is studied. By using concepts from the Dynamical Systems Theory, stability of equilibrium points is established, according to propagation parameters and initial conditions. Some numerical experiments are conducted in order to validate the model.

Critical behavior of the susceptible-infected-recovered model on a square lattice

By means of numerical simulations and epidemic analysis, the transition point of the stochastic asynchronous susceptible-infected-recovered model on a square lattice is found to be c(0)=0.176 500 5(10), where c is the probability a chosen infected site spontaneously recovers rather than tries to infect one neighbor. This point corresponds to an infection/recovery rate of lambda(c)=(1-c(0))/c(0)=4.665 71(3) and a net transmissibility of (1-c(0))/(1+3c(0))=0.538 410(2), which falls between the rigorous bounds of the site and bond thresholds. The critical behavior of the model is consistent with the two-dimensional percolation universality class, but local growth probabilities differ from those of dynamic percolation cluster growth, as is demonstrated explicitly.

A new scale-invariant ratio and finite-size scaling for the stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered model

The critical behavior of the stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered model on a square lattice is obtained by numerical simulations and finite-size scaling. The order parameter as well as the distribution in the number of recovered individuals is determined as a function of the infection rate for several values of the system size. The analysis around criticality is obtained by exploring the close relationship between the present model and standard percolation theory. The quantity UP, equal to the ratio U between the second moment and the squared first moment of the size distribution multiplied by the order parameter P, is shown to have, for a square system, a universal value 1.0167(1) that is the same for site and bond percolation, confirming further that the SIR model is also in the percolation class.

Susceptible-infected-recovered and susceptible-exposed-infected models

Two stochastic epidemic lattice models, the susceptible-infected-recovered and the susceptible-exposed-infected models, are studied on a Cayley tree of coordination number k. The spreading of the disease in the former is found to occur when the infection probability b is larger than b(c) = k/2(k - 1). In the latter, which is equivalent to a dynamic site percolation model, the spreading occurs when the infection probability p is greater than p(c) = 1/(k - 1). We set up and solve the time evolution equations for both models and determine the final and time-dependent properties, including the epidemic curve. We show that the two models are closely related by revealing that their relevant properties are exactly mapped into each other when p = b/[k - (k - 1) b]. These include the cluster size distribution and the density of individuals of each type, quantities that have been determined in closed forms.

BALB/c Mice Infected with Antimony Treatment Refractory Isolate of Leishmania braziliensis Present Severe Lesions due to IL-4 Production

Background: Leishmania braziliensis is the main causative agent of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Brazil. Protection against infection is related to development of Th1 responses, but the mechanisms that mediate susceptibility are still poorly understood. Murine models have been the most important tools in understanding the immunopathogenesis of L. major infection and have shown that Th2 responses favor parasite survival. In contrast, L. braziliensis-infected mice develop strong Th1 responses and easily resolve the infection, thus making the study of factors affecting susceptibility to this parasite difficult. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here, we describe an experimental model for the evaluation of the mechanisms mediating susceptibility to L. braziliensis infection. BALB/c mice were inoculated with stationary phase promastigotes of L. braziliensis, isolates LTCP393(R) and LTCP15171(S), which are resistant and susceptible to antimony and nitric oxide (NO), respectively. Mice inoculated with LTCP393(R) presented larger lesions that healed more slowly and contained higher parasite loads than lesions caused by LTCP15171(S). Inflammatory infiltrates in the lesions and production of IFN-gamma, TNF-alpha, IL-10 and TGF-beta were similar in mice inoculated with either isolate, indicating that these factors did not contribute to the different disease manifestations observed. In contrast, IL-4 production was strongly increased in LTCP393(R)-inoculated animals and also arginase I (Arg I) expression. Moreover, anti-IL-4 monoclonal antibody (mAb) treatment resulted in decreased lesion thickness and parasite burden in animals inoculated with LTCP393(R), but not in those inoculated with LTCP15171(S). Conclusion/Significance: We conclude that the ability of L. braziliensis isolates to induce Th2 responses affects the susceptibility to infection with these isolates and contributes to the increased virulence and severity of disease associated with them. Since these data reflect what happens in human infection, this model could be useful to study the pathogenesis of the L. braziliensis infection, as well as to design new strategies of therapeutic intervention.

A modified epidemiological model for computer viruses

Since the computer viruses pose a serious problem to individual and corporative computer systems, a lot of effort has been dedicated to study how to avoid their deleterious actions, trying to create anti-virus programs acting as vaccines in personal computers or in strategic network nodes. Another way to combat viruses propagation is to establish preventive policies based on the whole operation of a system that can be modeled with population models, similar to those that are used in epidemiological studies. Here, a modified version of the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is presented and how its parameters are related to network characteristics is explained. Then, disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are calculated, stability and bifurcation conditions are derived and some numerical simulations are shown. The relations among the model parameters in the several bifurcation conditions allow a network design minimizing viruses risks. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Chemokines expression during Leptospira interrogans serovar Copenhageni infection in resistant BALB/c and susceptible C3H/HeJ mice

The role of innate immune responses in protection against leptospirosis remains unclear. We examined the expression of the chemokines CCL2/JE (MCP-1), CCL3/MIP-1 alpha (MIP-1 alpha) and CXCL1/KC (IL-8) regarding resistance and susceptibility to leptospirosis in experimental mice models BALB/c and C3H/HeJ, respectively. A virulent strain of Leptospira interrogans serovar Copenhageni was used in this study. Twenty-five animals of each mouse strain of C3H/HeJ and BALB/c, were infected intraperitoneally with 106 cells. Five un-infected animals of each strain were kept as control. Mortality of C3H/HeJ mouse was observed while BALB/c mice were asymptomatic. The presence of leptospire DNA in tissues of infected animals was demonstrated by PCR. Chemokines were measured in serum, spleen, liver, kidney and lung of both strains of animals using immunoenzymatic assay (ELISA). Elevations in the levels of chemokines MCP-1 and IL-8 occurred in all organs and sera of C3H/HeJ and BALB/c infected mice. The levels of MIP-1 alpha were lower when compared to MCP-1 and IL-8 in all analyzed organs, with a slight increase in liver and kidney. Our results indicate that the expression of inflammatory mediators can vary greatly, depending on the tissue and mouse strains. It is possible that the resistance to Leptospira can be partially correlated to the increase of MIP-1 alpha observed in BALB/c mice, while an increasing and a sustained expression of MCP-1 and IL-8 in the lungs of C3H/HeJ mice can be correlated to the severity and progression of leptospirosis. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

TLR2 Is a Negative Regulator of Th17 Cells and Tissue Pathology in a Pulmonary Model of Fungal Infection

To study the role of TLR2 in a experimental model of chronic pulmonary infection, TLR2-deficient and wild-type mice were intratracheally infected with Paracoccidioides brasiliensis, a primary fungal pathogen. Compared with control, TLR2(-/-) mice developed a less severe pulmonary infection and decreased NO synthesis. Equivalent results were detected with in vitro-infected macrophages. Unexpectedly, despite the differences in fungal loads both mouse strains showed equivalent survival times and severe pulmonary inflammatory reactions. Studies on lung-infiltrating leukocytes of TLR2(-/-) mice demonstrated an increased presence of polymorphonuclear neutrophils that control fungal loads but were associated with diminished numbers of activated CD4(+) and CD8(+) T lymphocytes. TLR2 deficiency leads to minor differences in the levels of pulmonary type 1 and type 2 cytokines, but results in increased production of KC, a CXC chemokine involved in neutrophils chemotaxis, as well as TGF-beta, IL-6, IL-23, and IL-17 skewing T cell immunity to a Th17 pattern. In addition, the preferential Th17 immunity of TLR2(-/-) mice was associated with impaired expansion of regulatory CD4(+)CD25(+)FoxP3(+) T cells. This is the first study to show that TLR2 activation controls innate and adaptive immunity to P. brasiliensis infection. TLR2 deficiency results in increased Th17 immunity associated with diminished expansion of regulatory T cells and increased lung pathology due to unrestrained inflammatory reactions. The Journal of Immunology, 2009, 183: 1279-1290.

Stochastic lattice gas model describing the dynamics of the SIRS epidemic process

We study a stochastic process describing the onset of spreading dynamics of an epidemic in a population composed of individuals of three classes: susceptible (S), infected (I), and recovered (R). The stochastic process is defined by local rules and involves the following cyclic process: S -> I -> R -> S (SIRS). The open process S -> I -> R (SIR) is studied as a particular case of the SIRS process. The epidemic process is analyzed at different levels of description: by a stochastic lattice gas model and by a birth and death process. By means of Monte Carlo simulations and dynamical mean-field approximations we show that the SIRS stochastic lattice gas model exhibit a line of critical points separating the two phases: an absorbing phase where the lattice is completely full of S individuals and an active phase where S, I and R individuals coexist, which may or may not present population cycles. The critical line, that corresponds to the onset of epidemic spreading, is shown to belong in the directed percolation universality class. By considering the birth and death process we analyze the role of noise in stabilizing the oscillations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Experimental Infection of Rhipicephalus sanguineus Ticks with the Bacterium Rickettsia rickettsii, Using Experimentally Infected Dogs

We evaluated if Rickettsia rickettsii-experimentally infected dogs could serve as amplifier hosts for Rhipicephalus sanguineus ticks. In addition, we checked if Rh. sanguineus ticks that acquired Ri. rickettsii from dogs could transmit the bacterium to susceptible hosts (vector competence), and if these ticks could maintain the bacterium by transstadial and transovarial transmissions. Uninfected larvae, nymphs, and adults of Rh. sanguineus were allowed to feed upon three groups of dogs: groups 1 (G1) and 2 (G2) composed of Ri. rickettsii-infected dogs, infected intraperitoneally and via tick bites, respectively, and group 3 composed of uninfected dogs. After larval and nymphal feeding on rickettsemic dogs, 7.1-15.2% and 35.8-37.9% of the molted nymphs and adults, respectively, were shown by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to be infected by Ri. rickettsii, confirming that both G1 and G2 dogs were efficient sources of rickettsial infection (amplifier host), resulting in transstadial transmission of the agent. These infected nymphs and adults successfully transmitted Ri. rickettsii to guinea pigs, confirming vector competence after acquisition of the infection from rickettsemic dogs. Transovarial transmission of Ri. rickettsii was observed in engorged females that had been infected as nymphs by feeding on both G1 and G2 dogs, but not in engorged females that acquired the infection during adult feeding on these same dogs. In the first case, filial infection rates were generally <50%. No tick exposed to G3 dogs was infected by rickettsiae in this study. No substantial mortality difference was observed between Ri. rickettsii-infected tick groups (G1 and G2) and uninfected tick group (G3). Our results indicate that dogs can be amplifier hosts of Ri. rickettsii for Rh. sanguineus, although only a minority of immature ticks (<45%) should become infected. It appears that Rh. sanguineus, in the absence of horizontal transmission, would not maintain Ri. rickettsii through successive generations, possibly because of low filial infection rates.

Animated solid model of the lung constructed from unsynchronized MR sequential images

This work discusses a 4D lung reconstruction method from unsynchronized MR sequential images. The lung, differently from the heart, does not have its own muscles, turning impossible to see its real movements. The visualization of the lung in motion is an actual topic of research in medicine. CT (Computerized Tomography) can obtain spatio-temporal images of the heart by synchronizing with electrocardiographic waves. The FOV of the heart is small when compared to the lung`s FOV. The lung`s movement is not periodic and is susceptible to variations in the degree of respiration. Compared to CT, MR (Magnetic Resonance) imaging involves longer acquisition times and it is not possible to obtain instantaneous 3D images of the lung. For each slice, only one temporal sequence of 2D images can be obtained. However, methods using MR are preferable because they do not involve radiation. In this paper, based on unsynchronized MR images of the lung an animated B-Repsolid model of the lung is created. The 3D animation represents the lung`s motion associated to one selected sequence of MR images. The proposed method can be divided in two parts. First, the lung`s silhouettes moving in time are extracted by detecting the presence of a respiratory pattern on 2D spatio-temporal MR images. This approach enables us to determine the lung`s silhouette for every frame, even on frames with obscure edges. The sequence of extracted lung`s silhouettes are unsynchronized sagittal and coronal silhouettes. Using our algorithm it is possible to reconstruct a 3D lung starting from a silhouette of any type (coronal or sagittal) selected from any instant in time. A wire-frame model of the lung is created by composing coronal and sagittal planar silhouettes representing cross-sections. The silhouette composition is severely underconstrained. Many wire-frame models can be created from the observed sequences of silhouettes in time. Finally, a B-Rep solid model is created using a meshing algorithm. Using the B-Rep solid model the volume in time for the right and left lungs were calculated. It was possible to recognize several characteristics of the 3D real right and left lungs in the shaded model. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biochemical responses of glyphosate resistant and susceptible soybean plants exposed to glyphosate

Glyphosate is a wide spectrum, non-selective, post-emergence herbicide. It acts on the shikimic acid pathway inhibiting 5-enolpyruvylshikimate-3-phosphate synthase (EPSPS), thus obstructing the synthesis of tryptophan, phenylalanine, tyrosine and other secondary products, leading to plant death. Transgenic glyphosate-resistant (GR) soybean [Glycine max (L.)] expressing an glyphosate-insensitive EPSPS enzyme has provided new opportunities for weed control in soybean production. The effect of glyphosate application on chlorophyll level, lipid peroxidation, catalase (CAT), ascorbate peroxidase (APX), guaiacol peroxidase (GOPX) and superoxide dismutase (SOD) activities, soluble amino acid levels and protein profile, in leaves and roots, was examined in two conventional (non-GR) and two transgenic (GR) soybean. Glyphosate treatment had no significant impact on lipid peroxidation, whilst the chlorophyll content decreased in only one non-GR cultivar. However, there was a significant increase in the levels of soluble amino acid in roots and leaves, more so in non-GR than in GR soybean cultivars. Root CAT activity increased in non-GR cultivars and was not altered in GR cultivars. In leaves, CAT activity was inhibited in one non-GR and one GR cultivar. GOPX activity increased in one GR cultivar and in both non-GR cultivars. Root APX activity increased in one GR cultivar. The soluble protein profiles as assessed by 1-D gel electrophoresis of selected non-GR and GR soybean lines were unaffected by glyphosate treatment. Neither was formation of new isoenzymes of SOD and CAT observed when these lines were treated by glyphosate. The slight oxidative stress generated by glyphosate has no relevance to plant mortality. The potential antioxidant action of soluble amino acids may be responsible for the lack of lipid peroxidation observed. CAT activity in the roots and soluble amino acids in the leaves can be used as indicators of glyphosate resistance.

Immunological responses and cytokine gene expression analysis to Cooperia punctata infections in resistant and susceptible Nelore cattle

Cellular and humoral immune response, as well as cytokine gene expression, was assessed in Nelore cattle with different degrees of resistance to Cooperia punctata natural infection. One hundred cattle (male, weaned, 11-12 months old), kept together on pasture, were evaluated. Faecal and blood samples were collected for parasitological and immunological assays. Based on nematode faecal egg counts (FEC) and worm burden, the seven most resistant and the eight most susceptible animals were selected. Tissue samples of the small intestine were collected for histological quantification of inflammatory cells and analysis of cytokine gene expression (IL-2, IL-4, IL-8, IL-1 2p35, IL-13, TNF-alpha, IFN-gamma, MCP-1, MCP-2, and MUC- 1) using real-time RT-PCR. Mucus samples were also collected for IgA levels determination. Serum IgG1 mean levels against C. punctata antigens were higher in the resistant group, but significant differences between groups were only observed 14 days after the beginning of the experiment against infective larvae (1-3) and 14 and 84 days against adult antigens. The resistant group also presented higher IgA levels against C. punctata (L3 and adult) antigens with significant difference 14 days after the beginning of the trial (P < 0.05). In the small-intestine mucosa, levels of IgA anti-L3 and anti-adult C. punctata were higher in the resistant group, compared with the susceptible group (P < 0.05). Gene expression of both T(H)2 cytokines (IL-4 and IL-13) in the resistant group and T(H)1 cytokines (IL-2, IL-1 2p35, IFN-gamma and MCP-1) in the susceptible group was up-regulated. Such results suggested that immune response to C. punctata was probably mediated by TH2 cytokines in the resistant group and by T(H)1 cytokines in the susceptible group. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of Carnobacterium maltaromaticum cultures and hydroalcoholic extract of Lippia sidoides Cham. against Listeria monocytogenes in fish model systems

Minimally processed refrigerated ready-to-eat fishes may offer health risk of severe infection to susceptible individuals due to contamination by the psychrotolerant bacterium L monocytogenes. In this work, inhibition of L monocytogenes by a plant extract and lactic acid bacteria (IAB) was studied in model fish systems kept at 5 degrees C for 35 days. For that, fillets of tropical fish ""surubim"" (Pseudoplatystoma sp.) and hydroalcoholic extract of the plant Lippia sidoides Cham. (""alecrim pimenta"") were used. Fish peptone broth (FPB), ""surubim"" broth and ""surubim"" homogenate were inoculated with combinations of L monocytogenes and bacteriocin-producing Carnobacterium maltaromaticum (C2 and A9b(+)) and non bacteriocin-producing C. maltaromaticum (A9b(-)), in the presence or absence of extract of ""alecrim pimenta"" (EAP). In all model systems, monocultures of L monocytogenes and carnobacteria reached final populations >= 10(8) CFU/ml after 35 days, except for L monocytogenes in ""surubim"" homogenate (10(4) CFU/ml). In FPB, EAP alone and combined with cultures of LAB inhibited L monocytogenes but carnobacteria without EAP were only weakly antilisterial. In ""surubim"" broth, EAP alone did not prevent L monocytogenes growth but cultures of carnobacteria combined or not with EAP inhibited L monocytogenes, with more pronounced effect being observed for C maltaromaticum C2, which produced bacteriocin. In ""surubim"" homogenate, EAP alone and combined with cultures of C. maltaromaticum A9b(-) and A9b(+) were strongly inhibitory to L monocytogenes, while C maltaromaticum C2 with EAP caused transient inhibition of L monocytogenes. No significant inhibition of L monocytogenes was observed for carnobacteria in ""surubim"" homogenate without EAP. In conclusion, it was observed that the use of EAP and cultures of carnobacteria have potential to inhibit L monocytogenes in fish systems and the applications should be carefully studied, considering the influence of food matrix. (c) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.