Hubble parameter reconstruction from a principal component analysis: minimizing the bias

Aims. A model-independent reconstruction of the cosmic expansion rate is essential to a robust analysis of cosmological observations. Our goal is to demonstrate that current data are able to provide reasonable constraints on the behavior of the Hubble parameter with redshift, independently of any cosmological model or underlying gravity theory. Methods. Using type Ia supernova data, we show that it is possible to analytically calculate the Fisher matrix components in a Hubble parameter analysis without assumptions about the energy content of the Universe. We used a principal component analysis to reconstruct the Hubble parameter as a linear combination of the Fisher matrix eigenvectors (principal components). To suppress the bias introduced by the high redshift behavior of the components, we considered the value of the Hubble parameter at high redshift as a free parameter. We first tested our procedure using a mock sample of type Ia supernova observations, we then applied it to the real data compiled by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) group. Results. In the mock sample analysis, we demonstrate that it is possible to drastically suppress the bias introduced by the high redshift behavior of the principal components. Applying our procedure to the real data, we show that it allows us to determine the behavior of the Hubble parameter with reasonable uncertainty, without introducing any ad-hoc parameterizations. Beyond that, our reconstruction agrees with completely independent measurements of the Hubble parameter obtained from red-envelope galaxies.

Bias-corrected estimators for dispersion models with dispersion covariates

In this paper we discuss bias-corrected estimators for the regression and the dispersion parameters in an extended class of dispersion models (Jorgensen, 1997b). This class extends the regular dispersion models by letting the dispersion parameter vary throughout the observations, and contains the dispersion models as particular case. General formulae for the O(n(-1)) bias are obtained explicitly in dispersion models with dispersion covariates, which generalize previous results obtained by Botter and Cordeiro (1998), Cordeiro and McCullagh (1991), Cordeiro and Vasconcellos (1999), and Paula (1992). The practical use of the formulae is that we can derive closed-form expressions for the O(n(-1)) biases of the maximum likelihood estimators of the regression and dispersion parameters when the information matrix has a closed-form. Various expressions for the O(n(-1)) biases are given for special models. The formulae have advantages for numerical purposes because they require only a supplementary weighted linear regression. We also compare these bias-corrected estimators with two different estimators which are also bias-free to order O(n(-1)) that are based on bootstrap methods. These estimators are compared by simulation. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Classificação de sistemas meteorológicos e comparação da precipitação estimada pelo radar e medida pela rede telemétrica na bacia hidrográfica do alto Tietê

Foram analisadas características da precipitação estimada a partir de 145.194 campos de refletividade, de um total de 827 dias entre 1998 e 2003, obtidos do Radar Meteorológico de São Paulo (RSP). Os eventos foram classificados de acordo com intensidades de precipitação; em Convectivos (EC) e Estratiformes (EE). Quanto à morfologia, cinco tipos de sistemas foram identificados; Convecção Isolada (CI), Brisa Marítima (BM), Linhas de Instabilidade (LI), Bandas Dispersas (BD) e Frentes Frias (FF). Eventos convectivos dominam na primavera e verão e estratiformes no outono e inverno. A CI e a BM tiveram maiores picos de atuação entre outubro e março enquanto as FF de abril a setembro. BD atuam durante todo o ano e as LI só não foram observadas nos meses de junho e julho. Uma comparação pontual entre a precipitação medida pela telemetria e estimada com o radar foi realizada e, mostrou haver, na maioria dos casos, um viés positivo do RSP, para acumulações de 10, 30 e 60 minutos. Com o objetivo de integrar as estimativas de precipitação do radar com as medidas da rede telemétrica, por meio de uma análise objetiva estatística, foram obtidas dos campos de precipitação do radar as estruturas das correlações espaciais em função da distância para acumulações de chuva de 15, 30, 60 e 120 minutos para os cinco tipos de sistemas precipitantes que foram caracterizados. As curvas das correlações espaciais médias de todos os eventos de precipitação de cada sistema foram ajustadas por funções polinomiais de sexta ordem. Os resultados indicam diferenças significativas na estrutura espacial das correlações entre os sistemas precipitantes.

Previsões climáticas sazonais sobre o Brasil: avaliação do RegCM3 aninhado no modelo global CPTEC/COLA

Este trabalho avalia o desempenho de previsões sazonais do modelo climático regional RegCM3, aninhado ao modelo global CPTEC/COLA. As previsões com o RegCM3 utilizaram 60 km de resolução horizontal num domínio que inclui grande parte da América do Sul. As previsões do RegCM3 e CPTEC/COLA foram avaliadas utilizando as análises de chuva e temperatura do ar do Climate Prediction Center (CPC) e National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP), respectivamente. Entre maio de 2005 e julho de 2007, 27 previsões sazonais de chuva e temperatura do ar (exceto a temperatura do CPTEC/COLA, que possui 26 previsões) foram avaliadas em três regiões do Brasil: Nordeste (NDE), Sudeste (SDE) e Sul (SUL). As previsões do RegCM3 também foram comparadas com as climatologias das análises. De acordo com os índices estatísticos (bias, coeficiente de correlação, raiz quadrada do erro médio quadrático e coeficiente de eficiência), nas três regiões (NDE, SDE e SUL) a chuva sazonal prevista pelo RegCM3 é mais próxima da observada do que a prevista pelo CPTEC/COLA. Além disto, o RegCM3 também é melhor previsor da chuva sazonal do que da média das observações nas três regiões. Para temperatura, as previsões do RegCM3 são superiores às do CPTEC/COLA nas áreas NDE e SUL, enquanto o CPTEC/COLA é superior no SDE. Finalmente, as previsões de chuva e temperatura do RegCM3 são mais próximas das observações do que a climatologia observada. Estes resultados indicam o potencial de utilização do RegCM3 para previsão sazonal, que futuramente deverá ser explorado através de previsão por conjunto.

Neural networks and statistical analysis for classification of corneal videokeratography maps based on Zernike coefficients: a quantitative comparison

PURPOSE: The main goal of this study was to develop and compare two different techniques for classification of specific types of corneal shapes when Zernike coefficients are used as inputs. A feed-forward artificial Neural Network (NN) and discriminant analysis (DA) techniques were used. METHODS: The inputs both for the NN and DA were the first 15 standard Zernike coefficients for 80 previously classified corneal elevation data files from an Eyesys System 2000 Videokeratograph (VK), installed at the Departamento de Oftalmologia of the Escola Paulista de Medicina, São Paulo. The NN had 5 output neurons which were associated with 5 typical corneal shapes: keratoconus, with-the-rule astigmatism, against-the-rule astigmatism, "regular" or "normal" shape and post-PRK. RESULTS: The NN and DA responses were statistically analyzed in terms of precision ([true positive+true negative]/total number of cases). Mean overall results for all cases for the NN and DA techniques were, respectively, 94% and 84.8%. CONCLUSION: Although we used a relatively small database, results obtained in the present study indicate that Zernike polynomials as descriptors of corneal shape may be a reliable parameter as input data for diagnostic automation of VK maps, using either NN or DA.

Inquérito de saúde: comparação dos entrevistados segundo posse de linha telefônica residencial

Analisar diferenças quanto a características sociodemográficas e relacionadas à saúde entre indivíduos com e sem linha telefônica residencial. Foram analisados os dados do Inquérito de Saúde (ISA-Capital) 2003, um estudo transversal realizado em São Paulo, SP, no mesmo ano. Os moradores que possuíam linha telefônica residencial foram comparados com os que disseram não possuir linha telefônica, segundo as variáveis sociodemográficas, de estilo de vida, estado de saúde e utilização de serviços de saúde. Foram estimados os vícios associados à não-cobertura por parte da população sem telefone, verificando-se sua diminuição após a utilização de ajustes de pós-estratificação. Dos 1.878 entrevistados acima de 18 anos, 80,1% possuía linha telefônica residencial. Na comparação entre os grupos, as principais diferenças sociodemográficas entre indivíduos que não possuíam linha residencial foram: menor idade, maior proporção de indivíduos de raça/cor negra e parda, menor proporção de entrevistados casada, maior proporção de desempregados e com menor escolaridade. Os moradores sem linha telefônica residencial realizavam menos exames de saúde, fumavam e bebiam mais. Ainda, esse grupo consumiu menos medicamentos, auto-avaliou-se em piores condições de saúde e usou mais o Sistema Único de Saúde. Ao se excluir da análise a população sem telefone, as estimativas de consultas odontológicas, alcoolismo, consumo de medicamentos e utilização do SUS para realização de Papanicolaou foram as que tiveram maior vício. Após o ajuste de pós-estratificação, houve diminuição do vício das estimativas para as variáveis associadas à posse de linha telefônica residencial. ) A exclusão dos moradores sem linha telefônica é uma das principais limitações das pesquisas realizadas por esse meio. No entanto, a utilização de técnicas estatísticas de ajustes de pós-estratificação permite a diminuição dos vícios de não cobertura

Turbulence in collisionless plasmas: statistical analysis from numerical simulations with pressure anisotropy

In recent years, we have experienced increasing interest in the understanding of the physical properties of collisionless plasmas, mostly because of the large number of astrophysical environments (e. g. the intracluster medium (ICM)) containing magnetic fields that are strong enough to be coupled with the ionized gas and characterized by densities sufficiently low to prevent the pressure isotropization with respect to the magnetic line direction. Under these conditions, a new class of kinetic instabilities arises, such as firehose and mirror instabilities, which have been studied extensively in the literature. Their role in the turbulence evolution and cascade process in the presence of pressure anisotropy, however, is still unclear. In this work, we present the first statistical analysis of turbulence in collisionless plasmas using three-dimensional numerical simulations and solving double-isothermal magnetohydrodynamic equations with the Chew-Goldberger-Low laws closure (CGL-MHD). We study models with different initial conditions to account for the firehose and mirror instabilities and to obtain different turbulent regimes. We found that the CGL-MHD subsonic and supersonic turbulences show small differences compared to the MHD models in most cases. However, in the regimes of strong kinetic instabilities, the statistics, i.e. the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of density and velocity, are very different. In subsonic models, the instabilities cause an increase in the dispersion of density, while the dispersion of velocity is increased by a large factor in some cases. Moreover, the spectra of density and velocity show increased power at small scales explained by the high growth rate of the instabilities. Finally, we calculated the structure functions of velocity and density fluctuations in the local reference frame defined by the direction of magnetic lines. The results indicate that in some cases the instabilities significantly increase the anisotropy of fluctuations. These results, even though preliminary and restricted to very specific conditions, show that the physical properties of turbulence in collisionless plasmas, as those found in the ICM, may be very different from what has been largely believed.

Searching for molecular markers in head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) by statistical and bioinformatic analysis of larynx-derived SAGE libraries

Background: Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is one of the most common malignancies in humans. The average 5-year survival rate is one of the lowest among aggressive cancers, showing no significant improvement in recent years. When detected early, HNSCC has a good prognosis, but most patients present metastatic disease at the time of diagnosis, which significantly reduces survival rate. Despite extensive research, no molecular markers are currently available for diagnostic or prognostic purposes. Methods: Aiming to identify differentially-expressed genes involved in laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) development and progression, we generated individual Serial Analysis of Gene Expression (SAGE) libraries from a metastatic and non-metastatic larynx carcinoma, as well as from a normal larynx mucosa sample. Approximately 54,000 unique tags were sequenced in three libraries. Results: Statistical data analysis identified a subset of 1,216 differentially expressed tags between tumor and normal libraries, and 894 differentially expressed tags between metastatic and non-metastatic carcinomas. Three genes displaying differential regulation, one down-regulated (KRT31) and two up-regulated (BST2, MFAP2), as well as one with a non-significant differential expression pattern (GNA15) in our SAGE data were selected for real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in a set of HNSCC samples. Consistent with our statistical analysis, quantitative PCR confirmed the upregulation of BST2 and MFAP2 and the downregulation of KRT31 when samples of HNSCC were compared to tumor-free surgical margins. As expected, GNA15 presented a non-significant differential expression pattern when tumor samples were compared to normal tissues. Conclusion: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study reporting SAGE data in head and neck squamous cell tumors. Statistical analysis was effective in identifying differentially expressed genes reportedly involved in cancer development. The differential expression of a subset of genes was confirmed in additional larynx carcinoma samples and in carcinomas from a distinct head and neck subsite. This result suggests the existence of potential common biomarkers for prognosis and targeted-therapy development in this heterogeneous type of tumor.

Continental passive microwave-based rainfall estimation algorithm: Application to the Amazon Basin

This paper presents a new statistical algorithm to estimate rainfall over the Amazon Basin region using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI). The algorithm relies on empirical relationships derived for different raining-type systems between coincident measurements of surface rainfall rate and 85-GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature as observed by the precipitation radar (PR) and TMI on board the TRMM satellite. The scheme includes rain/no-rain area delineation (screening) and system-type classification routines for rain retrieval. The algorithm is validated against independent measurements of the TRMM-PR and S-band dual-polarization Doppler radar (S-Pol) surface rainfall data for two different periods. Moreover, the performance of this rainfall estimation technique is evaluated against well-known methods, namely, the TRMM-2A12 [ the Goddard profiling algorithm (GPROF)], the Goddard scattering algorithm (GSCAT), and the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) algorithms. The proposed algorithm shows a normalized bias of approximately 23% for both PR and S-Pol ground truth datasets and a mean error of 0.244 mm h(-1) ( PR) and -0.157 mm h(-1)(S-Pol). For rain volume estimates using PR as reference, a correlation coefficient of 0.939 and a normalized bias of 0.039 were found. With respect to rainfall distributions and rain area comparisons, the results showed that the formulation proposed is efficient and compatible with the physics and dynamics of the observed systems over the area of interest. The performance of the other algorithms showed that GSCAT presented low normalized bias for rain areas and rain volume [0.346 ( PR) and 0.361 (S-Pol)], and GPROF showed rainfall distribution similar to that of the PR and S-Pol but with a bimodal distribution. Last, the five algorithms were evaluated during the TRMM-Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) 1999 field campaign to verify the precipitation characteristics observed during the easterly and westerly Amazon wind flow regimes. The proposed algorithm presented a cumulative rainfall distribution similar to the observations during the easterly regime, but it underestimated for the westerly period for rainfall rates above 5 mm h(-1). NESDIS(1) overestimated for both wind regimes but presented the best westerly representation. NESDIS(2), GSCAT, and GPROF underestimated in both regimes, but GPROF was closer to the observations during the easterly flow.

Quantum statistical correlations in thermal field theories: Boundary effective theory

We show that the one-loop effective action at finite temperature for a scalar field with quartic interaction has the same renormalized expression as at zero temperature if written in terms of a certain classical field phi(c), and if we trade free propagators at zero temperature for their finite-temperature counterparts. The result follows if we write the partition function as an integral over field eigenstates (boundary fields) of the density matrix element in the functional Schrodinger field representation, and perform a semiclassical expansion in two steps: first, we integrate around the saddle point for fixed boundary fields, which is the classical field phi(c), a functional of the boundary fields; then, we perform a saddle-point integration over the boundary fields, whose correlations characterize the thermal properties of the system. This procedure provides a dimensionally reduced effective theory for the thermal system. We calculate the two-point correlation as an example.

Phase transitions and spatially ordered counterion association in ionic-lipid membranes: A statistical model

We propose a statistical model to account for the gel-fluid anomalous phase transitions in charged bilayer- or lamellae-forming ionic lipids. The model Hamiltonian comprises effective attractive interactions to describe neutral-lipid membranes as well as the effect of electrostatic repulsions of the discrete ionic charges on the lipid headgroups. The latter can be counterion dissociated (charged) or counterion associated (neutral), while the lipid acyl chains may be in gel (low-temperature or high-lateral-pressure) or fluid (high-temperature or low-lateral-pressure) states. The system is modeled as a lattice gas with two distinct particle types-each one associated, respectively, with the polar-headgroup and the acyl-chain states-which can be mapped onto an Ashkin-Teller model with the inclusion of cubic terms. The model displays a rich thermodynamic behavior in terms of the chemical potential of counterions (related to added salt concentration) and lateral pressure. In particular, we show the existence of semidissociated thermodynamic phases related to the onset of charge order in the system. This type of order stems from spatially ordered counterion association to the lipid headgroups, in which charged and neutral lipids alternate in a checkerboard-like order. Within the mean-field approximation, we predict that the acyl-chain order-disorder transition is discontinuous, with the first-order line ending at a critical point, as in the neutral case. Moreover, the charge order gives rise to continuous transitions, with the associated second-order lines joining the aforementioned first-order line at critical end points. We explore the thermodynamic behavior of some physical quantities, like the specific heat at constant lateral pressure and the degree of ionization, associated with the fraction of charged lipid headgroups.

Statistical models of mixtures with a biaxial nematic phase

We consider a simple Maier-Saupe statistical model with the inclusion of disorder degrees of freedom to mimic the phase diagram of a mixture of rodlike and disklike molecules. A quenched distribution of shapes leads to a phase diagram with two uniaxial and a biaxial nematic structure. A thermalized distribution, however, which is more adequate to liquid mixtures, precludes the stability of this biaxial phase. We then use a two-temperature formalism, and assume a separation of relaxation times, to show that a partial degree of annealing is already sufficient to stabilize a biaxial nematic structure.

Experimental studies of di-jet survival and surface emission bias in Au plus Au collisions via angular correlations with respect to back-to-back leading hadrons

We report first results from an analysis based on a new multi-hadron correlation technique, exploring jet-medium interactions and di-jet surface emission bias at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). Pairs of back-to-back high-transverse-momentum hadrons are used for triggers to study associated hadron distributions. In contrast with two-and three-particle correlations with a single trigger with similar kinematic selections, the associated hadron distribution of both trigger sides reveals no modification in either relative pseudorapidity Delta eta or relative azimuthal angle Delta phi from d + Au to central Au + Au collisions. We determine associated hadron yields and spectra as well as production rates for such correlated back-to-back triggers to gain additional insights on medium properties.

Low-bias negative differential resistance in graphene nanoribbon superlattices

We theoretically investigate negative differential resistance (NDR) for ballistic transport in semiconducting armchair graphene nanoribbon (aGNR) superlattices (5 to 20 barriers) at low bias voltages V(SD) < 500 mV. We combine the graphene Dirac Hamiltonian with the Landauer-Buttiker formalism to calculate the current I(SD) through the system. We find three distinct transport regimes in which NDR occurs: (i) a ""classical"" regime for wide layers, through which the transport across band gaps is strongly suppressed, leading to alternating regions of nearly unity and zero transmission probabilities as a function of V(SD) due to crossing of band gaps from different layers; (ii) a quantum regime dominated by superlattice miniband conduction, with current suppression arising from the misalignment of miniband states with increasing V(SD); and (iii) a Wannier-Stark ladder regime with current peaks occurring at the crossings of Wannier-Stark rungs from distinct ladders. We observe NDR at voltage biases as low as 10 mV with a high current density, making the aGNR superlattices attractive for device applications.

Universal zero-bias conductance through a quantum wire side-coupled to a quantum dot

A numerical renormalization-group study of the conductance through a quantum wire containing noninteracting electrons side-coupled to a quantum dot is reported. The temperature and the dot-energy dependence of the conductance are examined in the light of a recently derived linear mapping between the temperature-dependent conductance and the universal function describing the conductance for the symmetric Anderson model of a quantum wire with an embedded quantum dot. Two conduction paths, one traversing the wire, the other a bypass through the quantum dot, are identified. A gate potential applied to the quantum wire is shown to control the current through the bypass. When the potential favors transport through the wire, the conductance in the Kondo regime rises from nearly zero at low temperatures to nearly ballistic at high temperatures. When it favors the dot, the pattern is reversed: the conductance decays from nearly ballistic to nearly zero. When comparable currents flow through the two channels, the conductance is nearly temperature independent in the Kondo regime, and Fano antiresonances in the fixed-temperature plots of the conductance as a function of the dot-energy signal interference between them. Throughout the Kondo regime and, at low temperatures, even in the mixed-valence regime, the numerical data are in excellent agreement with the universal mapping.