Malaria on the Amazonian frontier: Transmission dynamics, risk factors, spatial distribution, and prospects for control

Little follow-up data on malaria transmission in communities originating from frontier settlements in Amazonia are available. Here we describe a cohort study in a frontier settlement in Acre, Brazil, where 509 subjects contributed 489.7 person-years of follow-up. The association between malaria morbidity during the follow-up and individual, household, and spatial covariates was explored with mixed-effects logistic regression models and spatial analysis. Incidence rates for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria were 30.0/100 and 16.3/100 person-years at risk, respectively. Malaria morbidity was strongly associated with land clearing and farming, and decreased after five years of residence in the area, suggesting that clinical immunity develops among subjects exposed to low malaria endemicity. Significant spatial clustering of malaria was observed in the areas of most recent occupation, indicating that the continuous influx of nonimmune settlers to forest-fringe areas perpetuates the cycle of environmental change and colonization that favors malaria transmission in rural Amazonia.

Blowout bifurcation and spatial mode excitation in the bubbling transition to turbulence

The transition to turbulence (spatio-temporal chaos) in a wide class of spatially extended dynamical system is due to the loss of transversal stability of a chaotic attractor lying on a homogeneous manifold (in the Fourier phase space of the system) causing spatial mode excitation Since the latter manifests as intermittent spikes this has been called a bubbling transition We present numerical evidences that this transition occurs due to the so called blowout bifurcation whereby the attractor as a whole loses transversal stability and becomes a chaotic saddle We used a nonlinear three-wave interacting model with spatial diffusion as an example of this transition (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Stochastic lattice gas model describing the dynamics of the SIRS epidemic process

We study a stochastic process describing the onset of spreading dynamics of an epidemic in a population composed of individuals of three classes: susceptible (S), infected (I), and recovered (R). The stochastic process is defined by local rules and involves the following cyclic process: S -> I -> R -> S (SIRS). The open process S -> I -> R (SIR) is studied as a particular case of the SIRS process. The epidemic process is analyzed at different levels of description: by a stochastic lattice gas model and by a birth and death process. By means of Monte Carlo simulations and dynamical mean-field approximations we show that the SIRS stochastic lattice gas model exhibit a line of critical points separating the two phases: an absorbing phase where the lattice is completely full of S individuals and an active phase where S, I and R individuals coexist, which may or may not present population cycles. The critical line, that corresponds to the onset of epidemic spreading, is shown to belong in the directed percolation universality class. By considering the birth and death process we analyze the role of noise in stabilizing the oscillations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Neoproterozoic glacial dynamics revealed by provenance of diamictites of the Bebedouro Formation, Sao Francisco Craton, Central Eastern Brazil

One of the main questions on Neoproterozoic geology regards the extent and dynamics of the glacial systems that are recorded in all continents. We present evidence for short transport distances and localized sediment sources for the Bebedouro Formation, which records Neoproterozoic glaciomarine sedimentation in the central-eastern Sao Francisco Craton (SFC), Brazil. New data are presented on clast composition, based on point counting in thin section and SHRIMP dating of pebbles and detrital zircon. Cluster analysis of clast compositional data revealed a pronounced spatial variability of clast composition on diamictite indicating the presence of individual glaciers or ice streams feeding the basin. Detrital zircon ages reveal distinct populations of Archean and Palaeoproterozoic age. The youngest detrital zircon dated at 874 +/- 9 Ma constrains the maximum depositional age of these diamictites. We interpret the provenance of the glacial diamictites to be restricted to sources inside the SFC, suggesting deposition in an environment similar to ice streams from modern, high latitude glaciers.

PACKMOL: A Package for Building Initial Configurations for Molecular Dynamics Simulations

Adequate initial configurations for molecular dynamics simulations consist of arrangements of molecules distributed in space in such a way to approximately represent the system`s overall structure. In order that the simulations are not disrupted by large van der Waals repulsive interactions, atoms from different molecules Must keep safe pairwise distances. Obtaining Such a molecular arrangement can be considered it packing problem: Each type molecule must satisfy spatial constraints related to the geometry of the system, and the distance between atoms of different molecules Must be greater than some specified tolerance. We have developed a code able to pack millions of atoms. grouped in arbitrarily complex molecules, inside a variety of three-dimensional regions. The regions may be intersections of spheres, ellipses, cylinders, planes, or boxes. The user must provide only the structure of one molecule of each type and the geometrical constraints that each type of molecule must satisfy. Building complex mixtures, interfaces, solvating biomolecules in water, other solvents, or mixtures of solvents, is straight forward. In addition. different atoms belonging to the same molecule may also be restricted to different spatial regions, in Such a way that more ordered molecular arrangements call be built, as micelles. lipid double-layers, etc. The packing time for state-of-the-art molecular dynamics systems varies front a few seconds to a few Minutes in a personal Computer. The input files are simple and Currently compatible with PDB, Tinker, Molden, or Moldy coordinate files. The package is distributed as free software and call be downloaded front http://www.ime.unicamp.br/similar to martinez/packmol/. (C) 2009 Wiley Periodicals. Inc. J Comput Chem 30: 2157-2164, 2009