Variabilidade do regime de monções sobre o Brasil: o clima presente e projeções para um cenário com 2xCO2 usando o modelo MIROC

Este trabalho investiga a variabilidade do Sistema de Monções da América do Sul (SMAS) sobre o Brasil com particular interesse na região do cerrado brasileiro. O início, final e total de precipitação durante as monções de verão são examinados utilizando estimativas de precipitação por satélite (pêntadas) do Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) entre 1979-2004. Analogamente, as características do regime de monção simuladas pelo modelo climático global acoplado MIROC (Model for interdisciplinary Research on Climate) do IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) são examinadas em dois cenários distintos: o clima do século XX (1981-2000) e o clima em uma condição com o dobro da concentração atual de CO2 (2xCO2) na atmosfera (2061-2080). Mostra-se que a variabilidade espacial do início da monção de verão sobre o cerrado na simulação do clima do século XX pelo MIROC corresponde bem às observações. Além disso, há indicação de uma mudança das caudas da distribuição sazonal da precipitação no Cerrado para um cenário com 2xCO2, comparativamente com o clima presente. Este resultado sugere uma mudança na probabilidade de ocorrência de eventos extremos (secos ou úmidos) em um cenário com 2xCO2 sobre o cerrado, o que de acordo com o MIROC, indica uma maior exposição da região às conseqüências de possíveis mudanças climáticas resultantes do aumento de gases de efeito estufa.

Transforming Youth Identities: Interactions Across ""Races/Colors/Ethnicities,"" Gender, Class, and Sexualities in Johannesburg, South Africa

In South Africa, and especially in Johannesburg, apartheid's ""racial"" paradigms are being transformed. Fifteen years after the end of apartheid and the elimination of all forms of inequity based on notion of ""race,"" including the abolition of the Immorality Act of 1949 that prohibited mixed marriages, the discourses of youth challenge preestablished boundaries. Today, the South African Constitution gives people the right to proclaim their sexual orientation and to shape their own identities. Through ethnographic observations carried out in Johannesburg and in-depth interviews with young people, this paper explores transforming notions of identity based on ""race/color/ethnicity,"" gender, class, and sexuality. The dynamics and challenges faced by young people with regards to mixed interactions in post-apartheid Johannesburg are analyzed and the paper looks at how "" race,"" gender, and sexuality interact in the various spaces in Johannesburg and how they affect young people's lives, particularly their perceptions of risk, violence, and HIV/AIDS vulnerability.

Living Our Lives on the Edge: Power, Space and Sexual Orientation in Cape Town Townships, South Africa

Much of social science literature about South African cities fails to represent its complex spectrum of sexual practices and associated identities. The unintended effects of such representations are that a compulsory heterosexuality is naturalised in, and reiterative with, dominant constructions of blackness in townships. In this paper, we argue that the assertion of discreet lesbian and gay identities in black townships of a South African city such as Cape Town is influenced by the historical racial and socio-economic divides that have marked urban landscape. In their efforts to recoup a positive sense of gendered personhood, residents have constructed a moral economy anchored in reproductive heterosexuality. We draw upon ethnographic data to show how sexual minorities live their lives vicariously in spaces they have prised open within the extant sex/gender binary. They are able to assert the identities of moffie and man-vrou (mannish woman) without threatening the dominant ideology of heterosexuality.

Evolutionary history of dog rabies in Brazil

Although dogs are considered to be the principal transmitter of rabies in Brazil, dog rabies had never been recorded in South America before European colonization. In order to investigate the evolutionary history of dog rabies virus (RABV) in Brazil, we performed a phylogenetic analysis of carnivore RABV isolates from around the world and estimated the divergence times for dog RABV in Brazil. Our estimate for the time of introduction of dog RABV into Brazil was the late-19th to early-20th century, which was later than the colonization period but corresponded to a period of increased immigration from Europe to Brazil. In addition, dog RABVs appeared to have spread to indigenous animals in Brazil during the latter half of the 20th century, when the development and urbanization of Brazil occurred. These results suggest that the movement of rabid dogs, along with human activities since the 19th century, promoted the introduction and expansion of dog RABV in Brazil.

Neoproterozoic geodynamic evolution of SW-Gondwana: a southern African perspective

Our current understanding of the tectonic history of the principal Pan-African orogenic belts in southwestern Africa, reaching from the West Congo Belt in the north to the Lufilian/Zambezi, Kaoko, Damara, Gariep and finally the Saldania Belt in the south, is briefly summarized. On that basis, possible links with tectono-stratigraphic units and major structures on the eastern side of the Rio de la Plata Craton are suggested, and a revised geodynamic model for the amalgamation of SW-Gondwana is proposed. The Rio de la Plata and Kalahari Cratons are considered to have become juxtaposed already by the end of the Mesoproterozoic. Early Neoproterozoic rifting led to the fragmentation of the northwestern (in today`s coordinates) Kalahari Craton and the splitting off of several small cratonic blocks. The largest of these ex-Kalahari cratonic fragments is probably the Angola Block. Smaller fragments include the Luis Alves and Curitiba microplates in eastern Brazil, several basement inliers within the Damara Belt, and an elongate fragment off the western margin, named Arachania. The main suture between the Kalahari and the Congo-So Francisco Cratons is suspected to be hidden beneath younger cover between the West Congo Belt and the Lufilian/Zambezi Belts and probably continues westwards via the Cabo Frio Terrane into the Goias magmatic arc along the Brasilia Belt. Many of the rift grabens that separated the various former Kalahari cratonic fragments did not evolve into oceanic basins, such as the Northern Nosib Rift in the Damara Belt and the Gariep rift basin. Following latest Cryogenian/early Ediacaran closure of the Brazilides Ocean between the Rio de la Plata Craton and the westernmost fragment of the Kalahari Craton, the latter, Arachania, became the locus of a more than 1,000-km-long continental magmatic arc, the Cuchilla Dionisio-Pelotas Arc. A correspondingly long back-arc basin (Marmora Basin) on the eastern flank of that arc is recognized, remnants of which are found in the Marmora Terrane-the largest accumulation of oceanic crustal material known from any of the Pan-African orogenic belts in the region. Corresponding foredeep deposits that emerged from the late Ediacaran closure of this back-arc basin are well preserved in the southern areas, i.e. the Punta del Este Terrane, the Marmora Terrane and the Tygerberg Terrane. Further to the north, present erosion levels correspond with much deeper crustal sections and comparable deposits are not preserved anymore. Closure of the Brazilides Ocean, and in consequence of the Marmora back-arc basin, resulted from a change in the Rio de la Plata plate motion when the Iapetus Ocean opened between the latter and Laurentia towards the end of the Ediacaran. Later break-up of Gondwana and opening of the modern South Atlantic would have followed largely along the axis of the Marmora back-arc basin and not along major continental sutures.

Entre a ruína e a obra de arte: psicossociologia da percepção da cidade histórica turística

Este artigo objetiva discutir o processo de significação da cidade histórica turística de Ouro Preto. Desenvolve-se por meio de uma pesquisa em psicologia social baseada na fenomenologia e no estudo micro-histórico da percepção. O trabalho foi baseado em extensa pesquisa de artigos, livros e outras fontes sobre a cidade de Ouro Preto. Ao final, mostram-se os diferentes discursos concernentes a quatro campos perceptivos criados durante o século XX.

Trabalho e imigração: uma comparação Brasil-Argentina

O artigo busca discutir um novo padrão migratório da Bolívia para o Brasil e para a Argentina, especialmente vinculado à precarização do trabalho e à inserção desses imigrantes em formas de trabalho precário. Esse padrão & aparentemente novo em relação à integração dos contingentes migrantes ao longo do século XX & vem produzindo consequências que ainda estão por ser mapeadas. Uma delas é a presença de um contingente de bolivianos confinado ao setor de costura, trabalhando e vivendo em oficinas clandestinas, com pouca visibilidade pública, como face de uma precarização mundializada, resultante do assim chamado “custo chinês”. Resultante de um balanço bibliográfico e de uma incursão exploratória na pesquisa de campo tanto em São Paulo como em Buenos Aires, o artigo pretende apontar para aspectos específicos do fenômeno, combinando olhares e perspectivas que cruzam as dimensões migratórias, geracionais e de gênero.

Nutritive value and physical characteristics of Xaraes palisadegrass as affected by grazing strategy

The aim of this study was to ascertain whether the defoliation frequency based on a fixed rest period would generate variable sward structural and physiological conditions at each subsequent grazing event. The relative importance of the physiological age was established in comparison with the chronological age in the determination of the forage nutritive value of Xaraes palisadegrass [Brachiaria brizantha (Hochst ex A. RICH.) STAPF. cv. Xaraes]. Two grazing frequencies were defined by light interception (LI) at initiation of grazing (95% LI - ""target grazing"" [TG] or 100% LI - ""delayed grazing"" [DG]) and one based on chronological time, grazing every 28 days (28-d). Forage produced under the TG schedule was mostly leaves (93%) with a higher concentration of crude protein (CP; 138 g/kg in the whole forage), a lower concentrations of neutral detergent fibre (NDF) in the stems (740 g/kg), and higher in vitro dry matter digestibility (IVDMD) of the leaves (690 g/kg), compared to the other treatments. Lower grazing frequency strategies (DG and 28-d) resulted in forage with higher proportions of stems (10 and 9%, respectively). Strategies based on light interception did not produce pre-graze forage with a uniform nutritive value, as the indicators varied across grazing cycles. The treatment based on fixed days of rest did not result in uniformity.

Cross-national epidemiology of DSM-IV major depressive episode

Background: Major depression is one of the leading causes of disability worldwide, yet epidemiologic data are not available for many countries, particularly low- to middle-income countries. In this paper, we present data on the prevalence, impairment and demographic correlates of depression from 18 high and low-to middle-income countries in the World Mental Health Survey Initiative. Methods: Major depressive episodes (MDE) as defined by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition (DMS-IV) were evaluated in face-to-face interviews using the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Data from 18 countries were analyzed in this report (n = 89,037). All countries surveyed representative, population-based samples of adults. Results: The average lifetime and 12-month prevalence estimates of DSM-IV MDE were 14.6% and 5.5% in the ten high-income and 11.1% and 5.9% in the eight low- to middle-income countries. The average age of onset ascertained retrospectively was 25.7 in the high-income and 24.0 in low- to middle-income countries. Functional impairment was associated with recency of MDE. The female: male ratio was about 2: 1. In high-income countries, younger age was associated with higher 12-month prevalence; by contrast, in several low-to middle-income countries, older age was associated with greater likelihood of MDE. The strongest demographic correlate in high-income countries was being separated from a partner, and in low- to middle-income countries, was being divorced or widowed. Conclusions: MDE is a significant public-health concern across all regions of the world and is strongly linked to social conditions. Future research is needed to investigate the combination of demographic risk factors that are most strongly associated with MDE in the specific countries included in the WMH.

Multi-trait and random regression mature weight heritability and breeding value estimates in Nelore cattle

Mature weight breeding values were estimated using a multi-trait animal model (MM) and a random regression animal model (RRM). Data consisted of 82 064 weight records from 8 145 animals, recorded from birth to eight years of age. Weights at standard ages were considered in the MM. All models included contemporary groups as fixed effects, and age of dam (linear and quadratic effects) and animal age as covariates. In the RRM, mean trends were modelled through a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of animal age and genetic maternal and direct and maternal permanent environmental effects were also included as random. Legendre polynomials of orders 4, 3, 6 and 3 were used for animal and maternal genetic and permanent environmental effects, respectively, considering five classes of residual variances. Mature weight (five years) direct heritability estimates were 0.35 (MM) and 0.38 (RRM). Rank correlation between sires' breeding values estimated by MM and RRM was 0.82. However, selecting the top 2% (12) or 10% (62) of the young sires based on the MM predicted breeding values, respectively 71% and 80% of the same sires would be selected if RRM estimates were used instead. The RRM modelled the changes in the (co) variances with age adequately and larger breeding value accuracies can be expected using this model.

Influence of a polyclonal antibody preparation on the in situ degradability of three energy sources

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of a polyclonal antibody preparation (PAP) against specific ruminal bacteria on the in situ degradability of dry-grounded maize grain (DMG), high moisture maize silage (HMMS) starch and citrus pulp (CiPu) pectin. Nine ruminally cannulated cows were used in a 3 x 3 Latin square design, replicated three times in a factorial arrangement of treatments of two rumen modifiers represented by monensin and PAP plus a control group, and the three energy sources (DMG, HMMS and CiPu). Each period had 21 days, where 16 were used for adaptation to treatment and five for data collection. The group treated with PAP showed an effect on the soluble fraction (""a"") of DMG starch, decreasing it by respectively 45.3% and 45.4% compared to the CON and MON groups. No effect of PAP was observed for any in situ degradability parameters of starch from HMMS or pectin of CiPu. It was concluded that the polyclonal antibody preparation had limited effect on the in situ degradability of the tested energy sources.

Social Science; black movement; racial relations; identityThe Brazilian black movement in the social sciences (1950-2000)

When and how did the Brazilian Black movement appear in the social sciences? What are the theoretical approaches and explanations for the 20th century emergence and development? This article will address these principal issues by analyzing studies that have taken on the topic of collective black mobilization from various disciplinary vantage points, particularly, Sociology, History and Anthropology.

Pathogenesis of Endemic Pemphigus Foliaceus

Pemphigus refers to a group of human autoimmune blistering diseases involving skin and/or mucous membranes. Endemic pemphigus foliaceus (EPF), or fogo selvagem is an organ-specific autoimmune blistering disease, first reported in the beginning of the 20th century in rural areas of Brazil. The disease follows the course of streams and creeks, and vanishes after urbanization of the endemic areas. The auto-antigen related to EPF is desmoglein 1, a 160 kDa glycoprotein of the desmossomal core, targeted by in situ and circulating IgG autoantibodies, mainly of the IgG4 subclass.

Twelve-Month Prevalence of and Risk Factors for Suicide Attempts in the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys

Objective: Although suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, clinicians and researchers lack a data-driven method to assess the risk of suicide attempts. This study reports the results of an analysis of a large cross-national epidemiologic survey database that estimates the 12-month prevalence of suicidal behaviors, identifies risk factors for suicide attempts, and combines these factors to create a risk index for 12-month suicide attempts separately for developed and developing countries. Method: Data come from the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys (conducted 2001-2007), in which 108,705 adults from 21 countries were interviewed using the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview. The survey assessed suicidal behaviors and potential risk factors across multiple domains, including socio-demographic characteristics, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, DSM-IV disorders, and history of suicidal behavior. Results: Twelve-month prevalence estimates of suicide ideation, plans, and attempts are 2.0%, 0.6%, and 0.3%, respectively, for developed countries and 2.1%, 0.7%, and 0.4%, respectively, for developing countries. Risk factors for suicidal behaviors in both developed and developing countries include female sex, younger age, lower education and income, unmarried status, unemployment, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, and presence of diverse 12-month DSM-IV mental disorders. Combining risk factors from multiple domains produced risk indices that accurately predicted 12-month suicide attempts in both developed and developing countries (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.74-0.80). Conclusions: Suicidal behaviors occur at similar rates in both developed and developing countries. Risk indices assessing multiple domains can predict suicide attempts with fairly good accuracy and may be useful in aiding clinicians in the prediction of these behaviors. J Clin Psychiatry 2010;71(12):1617-1628 (C) Copyright 2010 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Childhood adversities and adult psychopathology in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys

Background Although significant associations of childhood adversities with adult mental disorders are widely documented, most studies focus on single childhood adversities predicting single disorders. Aims To examine joint associations of 12 childhood adversities with first onset of 20 DSM-IV disorders in World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys in 21 countries. Method Nationally or regionally representative surveys of 51 945 adults assessed childhood adversities and lifetime DSM-IV disorders with the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Results Childhood adversities were highly prevalent and interrelated. Childhood adversities associated with maladaptive family functioning (e.g. parental mental illness, child abuse, neglect) were the strongest predictors of disorders. Co-occurring childhood adversities associated with maladaptive family functioning had significant subadditive predictive associations and little specificity across disorders. Childhood adversities account for 29.8% of all disorders across countries. Conclusions Childhood adversities have strong associations with all classes of disorders at all life-course stages in all groups of WMH countries. Long-term associations imply the existence of as-yet undetermined mediators.