Software maintenance project delays prediction using Bayesian Networks

Managing software maintenance is rarely a precise task due to uncertainties concerned with resources and services descriptions. Even when a well-established maintenance process is followed, the risk of delaying tasks remains if the new services are not precisely described or when resources change during process execution. Also, the delay of a task at an early process stage may represent a different delay at the end of the process, depending on complexity or services reliability requirements. This paper presents a knowledge-based representation (Bayesian Networks) for maintenance project delays based on specialists experience and a corresponding tool to help in managing software maintenance projects. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keratoconus prediction using a finite element model of the cornea with local biomechanical properties

PURPOSE: The ability to predict and understand which biomechanical properties of the cornea are responsible for the stability or progression of keratoconus may be an important clinical and surgical tool for the eye-care professional. We have developed a finite element model of the cornea, that tries to predicts keratoconus-like behavior and its evolution based on material properties of the corneal tissue. METHODS: Corneal material properties were modeled using bibliographic data and corneal topography was based on literature values from a schematic eye model. Commercial software was used to simulate mechanical and surface properties when the cornea was subject to different local parameters, such as elasticity. RESULTS: The simulation has shown that, depending on the corneal initial surface shape, changes in local material properties and also different intraocular pressures values induce a localized protuberance and increase in curvature when compared to the remaining portion of the cornea. CONCLUSIONS: This technique provides a quantitative and accurate approach to the problem of understanding the biomechanical nature of keratoconus. The implemented model has shown that changes in local material properties of the cornea and intraocular pressure are intrinsically related to keratoconus pathology and its shape/curvature.

Histological and radiological changes in cranial bone in the presence of bone wax

PURPOSE: To quantify the amount of bone formation in the calvarial region of Wistar rats after craniotomy using bone wax as a haemostatic agent. METHODS: Surgery to produce bilateral, symmetric, full-thickness cranial defects (area: 18 mm²) was performed in eight animals. The right side of the cranium remained open and the edges of the left side osseous defect was covered with bone wax. Calvaria were imaged immediately after surgery and 12 weeks postoperatively by computerized tomography. The areas of the bone defects were measured in three-dimensional images using Magics 13.0 (Materialise-Belgic, software CAD). RESULTS: The average amount of bone formation on the left and right side respectively was 4.85 mm² and 8.16 mm². Statistically significant differences between the amount of bone formation on the left and right sides were seen. CONCLUSIONS: Bone wax significantly diminishes the rate of bone formation in calvarial defects in a rat model.

Alveolar osseous defect in rat for cell therapy: preliminary report

PURPOSE: To study were to reproduce an alveolar bone defect model in Wistar rats to be used for testing the efficacy of stem cell therapies. Additionally, we also aimed to determine the osteogenesis process of this osseous defect in the 1 month period post-surgery. METHODS: The animals were randomly divided into two groups of 7 animals each. A gingivobuccal incision was made, and a bone defect of 28 mm² of area was performed in the alveolar region. Animals were killed at 2 weeks after surgery (n=7) and 4 weeks after surgery (n=7). RESULTS: The average area of the alveolar defect at time point of 2 weeks was 22.27 ± 1.31 mm² and the average area of alveolar defect at time point of 4 weeks was 9.03 ± 1.17 mm². The average amount of bone formation at time point of 2 weeks was 5.73 ± 1.31 mm² and the average amount of bone formation at time point of 4 weeks was 19 ± 1.17 mm². Statistically significant differences between the amount of bone formation at 2 weeks and 4 weeks after surgery were seen (p=0.003). CONCLUSION: The highest rate of ossification occurred mostly from 2 to 4 weeks after surgery. This observation suggests that 4 weeks after the bone defect creation should be a satisfactory timing to assess the potential of bone inductive stem cells to accelerate bone regeneration in Wistar rats.

Synthesis, screening for antiacetylcholinesterase activity and binding mode prediction of a new series of [3-(disubstituted-phosphate)-4,4,4-trifluoro-butyl]-carbamic acid ethyl esters

A series of nine new [3-(disubstituted-phosphate)-4,4,4-trifluoro-butyl]-carbamic acid ethyl esters (phosphate-carbamate compounds) was obtained through the reaction of (4,4,4-trifluoro-3-hydroxybut-1-yl)-carbamic acid ethyl esters with phosphorus oxychloride followed by the addition of alcohols. The products were characterized by ¹H, 13C, 31P, and 19F NMR spectroscopy, GC-MS, and elemental analysis. All the synthesized compounds were screened for acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibitory activity using the Ellman method. All compounds containing phosphate and carbamate pharmacophores in their structures showed enzyme inhibition, being the compound bearing the diethoxy phosphate group (2b) the most active compound. Molecular modeling studies were performed to investigate the detailed interactions between AChE active site and small-molecule inhibitor candidates, providing valuable structural insights into AChE inhibition.

Prediction of good glass formers in the Al-Ni-La and Al-Ni-Gd systems using topological instability and electronegativity

A new criterion has been recently proposed combining the topological instability (lambda criterion) and the average electronegativity difference (Delta e) among the elements of an alloy to predict and select new glass-forming compositions. In the present work, this criterion (lambda.Delta e) is applied to the Al-Ni-La and Al-Ni-Gd ternary systems and its predictability is validated using literature data for both systems and additionally, using own experimental data for the Al-La-Ni system. The compositions with a high lambda.Delta e value found in each ternary system exhibit a very good correlation with the glass-forming ability of different alloys as indicated by their supercooled liquid regions (Delta T(x)) and their critical casting thicknesses. In the case of the Al-La-Ni system, the alloy with the largest lambda.Delta e value, La(56)Al(26.5)Ni(17.5), exhibits the highest glass-forming ability verified for this system. Therefore, the combined lambda.Delta e criterion is a simple and efficient tool to select new glass-forming compositions in Al-Ni-RE systems. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3563099]

System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

Estimation and prediction of parameters and breeding values in soybean using REML/BLUP and Least Squares

The aim of this study was to compare REML/BLUP and Least Square procedures in the prediction and estimation of genetic parameters and breeding values in soybean progenies. F(2:3) and F(4:5) progenies were evaluated in the 2005/06 growing season and the F(2:4) and F(4:6) generations derived thereof were evaluated in 2006/07. These progenies were originated from two semi-early, experimental lines that differ in grain yield. The experiments were conducted in a lattice design and plots consisted of a 2 m row, spaced 0.5 m apart. The trait grain yield per plot was evaluated. It was observed that early selection is more efficient for the discrimination of the best lines from the F(4) generation onwards. No practical differences were observed between the least square and REML/BLUP procedures in the case of the models and simplifications for REML/BLUP used here.

Shallow landslide prediction in the Serra do Mar, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Various methods are currently used in order to predict shallow landslides within the catchment scale. Among them, physically based models present advantages associated with the physical description of processes by means of mathematical equations. The main objective of this research is the prediction of shallow landslides using TRIGRS model, in a pilot catchment located at Serra do Mar mountain range, Sao Paulo State, southeastern Brazil. Susceptibility scenarios have been simulated taking into account different mechanical and hydrological values. These scenarios were analysed based on a landslide scars map from the January 1985 event, upon which two indexes were applied: Scars Concentration (SC - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells with scars within the catchment) and Landslide Potential (LP - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells in that same class). The results showed a significant agreement between the simulated scenarios and the scar's map. In unstable areas (SF <= 1), the SC values exceeded 50% in all scenarios. Based on the results, the use of this model should be considered an important tool for shallow landslide prediction, especially in areas where mechanical and hydrological properties of the materials are not well known.

Application of Low-Level Laser Irradiation (LLLI) and rhBMP-2 in Critical Bone Defect of Ovariectomized Rats: Histomorphometric Evaluation

Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the osteogenic potential of recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein-2 (rhBMP-2) and low-level laser irradiation (LLLI), isolated or combined in critical bone defects (5mm) in parietal bone using ovariectomized female rats as an experimental animal model. Materials and Methods: Forty-nine female Wistar rats, bilaterally ovariectomized (OVX), were divided into seven treatment groups of seven animals each: (I) laser in a single application, (II) 7 mu g of pure rhBMP-2, (III) laser and 7 mu g of pure rhBMP-2, (IV) 7 mu g of rhBMP-2/monoolein gel, (V) laser and 7 mu g of rhBMP-2/monoolein gel, (VI) laser and pure monoolein gel, and (VII) critical bone defect controls. The low-level laser source used was a gallium aluminum arsenide semiconductor diode laser device (lambda = 780 nm, D = 120 J/cm(2)). Results: Groups II and III presented higher levels of newly formed bone than all other groups with levels of 40.57% and 40.39%, respectively (p < 0.05). The levels of newly formed bone of groups I, IV, V, and VI were similar with levels of 29.67%, 25.75%, 27.75%, and 30.64%, respectively (p > 0.05). The area of new bone formation in group VII was 20.96%, which is significantly lower than groups I, II, III, and VI. Conclusions: It was concluded that pure rhBMP-2 and a single dose of laser application stimulated new bone formation, but the new bone formation area was significantly increased when only rhBMP-2 was used. Additionally, the laser application in combination with other treatments did not influence the bone formation area.

Biologically Plausible Connectionist Prediction of Natural Language Thematic Relations

In Natural Language Processing (NLP) symbolic systems, several linguistic phenomena, for instance, the thematic role relationships between sentence constituents, such as AGENT, PATIENT, and LOCATION, can be accounted for by the employment of a rule-based grammar. Another approach to NLP concerns the use of the connectionist model, which has the benefits of learning, generalization and fault tolerance, among others. A third option merges the two previous approaches into a hybrid one: a symbolic thematic theory is used to supply the connectionist network with initial knowledge. Inspired on neuroscience, it is proposed a symbolic-connectionist hybrid system called BIO theta PRED (BIOlogically plausible thematic (theta) symbolic-connectionist PREDictor), designed to reveal the thematic grid assigned to a sentence. Its connectionist architecture comprises, as input, a featural representation of the words (based on the verb/noun WordNet classification and on the classical semantic microfeature representation), and, as output, the thematic grid assigned to the sentence. BIO theta PRED is designed to ""predict"" thematic (semantic) roles assigned to words in a sentence context, employing biologically inspired training algorithm and architecture, and adopting a psycholinguistic view of thematic theory.

Systematic Management of Variability in UML-based Software Product Lines

This paper presents SMarty, a variability management approach for UML-based software product lines (PL). SMarty is supported by a UML profile, the SMartyProfile, and a process for managing variabilities, the SMartyProcess. SMartyProfile aims at representing variabilities, variation points, and variants in UML models by applying a set of stereotypes. SMartyProcess consists of a set of activities that is systematically executed to trace, identify, and control variabilities in a PL based on SMarty. It also identifies variability implementation mechanisms and analyzes specific product configurations. In addition, a more comprehensive application of SMarty is presented using SEI's Arcade Game Maker PL. An evaluation of SMarty and related work are discussed.

Accurate prediction of the Si/SiO(2) interface band offset using the self-consistent ab initio DFT/LDA-1/2 method

We use the density functional theory/local-density approximation (DFT/LDA)-1/2 method [L. G. Ferreira , Phys. Rev. B 78, 125116 (2008)], which attempts to fix the electron self-energy deficiency of DFT/LDA by half-ionizing the whole Bloch band of the crystal, to calculate the band offsets of two Si/SiO(2) interface models. Our results are similar to those obtained with a ""state-of-the-art"" GW approach [R. Shaltaf , Phys. Rev. Lett. 100, 186401 (2008)], with the advantage of being as computationally inexpensive as the usual DFT/LDA. Our band gap and band offset predictions are in excellent agreement with experiments.

Defect-induced effects on carrier migration through one-dimensional poly(para-phenylenevinylene) chains

Defects in one-dimensional (1D) systems can be intrinsically distinct from its three-dimensional counterparts, and polymer films are good candidates for showing both extremes that are difficult to individuate in the experimental data. We study theoretically the impact of simple hydrogen and oxygen defects on the electron transport properties of one-dimensional poly(para-phenylenevinylene) chains through a multiscale technique, starting from classical structural simulations for crystalline films to extensive ab initio calculations within density functional theory for the defects in single crystalline-constrained chains. The most disruptive effect on carrier transport comes from conjugation breaking imposed by the overcoordination of a carbon atom in the vinyl group independently from the chemical nature of the defect. The particular case of the [C=O] (keto-defect) shows in addition unexpected electron-hole separation, suggesting that the experimentally detected photoluminescence bleaching and photoconductivity enhancement could be due to exciton dissociation caused by the 1D characteristics of the defect.

Mechanism of point-defect diffusion in a two-dimensional colloidal crystal

The dynamics and mechanism of migration of a vacancy point defect in a two-dimensional (2D) colloidal crystal are studied using numerical simulations. We find that the migration of a vacancy is always realized by topology switching between its different configurations. From the temperature dependence of the topology switch frequencies, we obtain the activation energies for possible topology transitions associated with the vacancy diffusion in the 2D crystal. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3615287]