Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparative Prevalence, Correlates of Impairment, and Service Utilization for Eating Disorders Across US Ethnic Groups: Implications for Reducing Ethnic Disparities in Health Care Access for Eating Disorders

Objective: The study compared the prevalence, correlates of functional impairment, and service utilization for eating disorders across Latinos, Asians, and African Americans living in the United States to non-Latino Whites. Method: Pooled data from the NIMH Collaborative Psychiatric Epidemiological Studies (CPES; NIMH, 2007) were used. Results: The prevalence of anorexia nervosa (AN) and binge-eating disorder (BED) were similar across all groups examined, but bulimia nervosa (BN) was more prevalent among Latinos and African Americans than non-Latino Whites. Despite similar prevalence of BED among ethnic groups examined, lifetime prevalence of any binge eating (ABE) was greater among each of the ethnic minority groups in comparison to non-Latino Whites. Lifetime prevalence of mental health service utilization was lower among ethnic minority groups studied than for non-Latino Whites for respondents with a lifetime history of any eating disorder. Discussion: These findings suggest the need for clinician training and health policy interventions to achieve optimal and equitable care for eating disorders across all ethnic groups in the United States. (C) 2010 by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY IN BIODIVERSITY SCIENCE, CONSERVATION, AND POLICY: A CALL TO ACTION

Evolutionary biologists have long endeavored to document how many species exist on Earth, to understand the processes by which biodiversity waxes and wanes, to document and interpret spatial patterns of biodiversity, and to infer evolutionary relationships. Despite the great potential of this knowledge to improve biodiversity science, conservation, and policy, evolutionary biologists have generally devoted limited attention to these broader implications. Likewise, many workers in biodiversity science have underappreciated the fundamental relevance of evolutionary biology. The aim of this article is to summarize and illustrate some ways in which evolutionary biology is directly relevant We do so in the context of four broad areas: (1) discovering and documenting biodiversity, (2) understanding the causes of diversification, (3) evaluating evolutionary responses to human disturbances, and (4) implications for ecological communities, ecosystems, and humans We also introduce bioGENESIS, a new project within DIVERSITAS launched to explore the potential practical contributions of evolutionary biology In addition to fostering the integration of evolutionary thinking into biodiversity science, bioGENESIS provides practical recommendations to policy makers for incorporating evolutionary perspectives into biodiversity agendas and conservation. We solicit your involvement in developing innovative ways of using evolutionary biology to better comprehend and stem the loss of biodiversity.

Demographic characteristics and prevalence of serologic markers among blood donors who use confidential unit exclusion (CUE) in Sao Paulo, Brazil: implications for modification of CUE polices in Brazil

BACKGROUND: This study evaluated demographic profiles and prevalence of serologic markers among donors who used confidential unit exclusion (CUE) to assess the effectiveness of CUE and guide public policies regarding the use of CUE for enhancing safety versus jeopardizing the blood supply by dropping CUE. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of whole blood donations at a large public blood center in Sao Paulo from July 2007 through June 2009, compared demographic data, and confirmed serologic results among donors who used and who have never used CUE (CUE never). RESULTS: There were 265,550 whole blood units collected from 181,418 donors from July 2007 through June 2009. A total of 9658 (3.6%) units were discarded, 2973 (1.1%) because CUE was used at the current donation (CUE now) and 6685 (2.5%) because CUE was used in the past (CUE past). The CUE rate was highest among donors with less than 8 years of education (odds ratio [OR], 2.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.51-3.08). CUE now donations were associated with higher positive infectious disease marker rates than CUE never donations (OR, 1.41; CI, 1.13-1.77), whereas CUE past donations were not (OR, 1.04; CI, 0.75-1.45). CONCLUSION: The CUE process results in a high rate of unit discard. CUE use on an individual donation appears predictive of a high-risk marker-positive donation and, thus, appears to contribute modestly to blood safety. The policy of discarding units from donors who have previously CUE-positive donations does not improve safety and should be discontinued.

Inferential Implications of Over-Parametrization: A Case Study in Incomplete Categorical Data

P>In the context of either Bayesian or classical sensitivity analyses of over-parametrized models for incomplete categorical data, it is well known that prior-dependence on posterior inferences of nonidentifiable parameters or that too parsimonious over-parametrized models may lead to erroneous conclusions. Nevertheless, some authors either pay no attention to which parameters are nonidentifiable or do not appropriately account for possible prior-dependence. We review the literature on this topic and consider simple examples to emphasize that in both inferential frameworks, the subjective components can influence results in nontrivial ways, irrespectively of the sample size. Specifically, we show that prior distributions commonly regarded as slightly informative or noninformative may actually be too informative for nonidentifiable parameters, and that the choice of over-parametrized models may drastically impact the results, suggesting that a careful examination of their effects should be considered before drawing conclusions.Resume Que ce soit dans un cadre Bayesien ou classique, il est bien connu que la surparametrisation, dans les modeles pour donnees categorielles incompletes, peut conduire a des conclusions erronees. Cependant, certains auteurs persistent a negliger les problemes lies a la presence de parametres non identifies. Nous passons en revue la litterature dans ce domaine, et considerons quelques exemples surparametres simples dans lesquels les elements subjectifs influencent de facon non negligeable les resultats, independamment de la taille des echantillons. Plus precisement, nous montrons comment des a priori consideres comme peu ou non-informatifs peuvent se reveler extremement informatifs en ce qui concerne les parametres non identifies, et que le recours a des modeles surparametres peut avoir sur les conclusions finales un impact considerable. Ceci suggere un examen tres attentif de l`impact potentiel des a priori.

Influence of spawning procedure on gametes fertilization success in Salminus hilarii Valenciennes, 1850 (Teleostei: Characidae): Implications for the conservation of this species

Artificial reproduction and gamete fertilization were evaluated in Salminus hilarii wild and domesticated broodstocks. Wild and domesticated broodstocks were artificially induced to reproduction using a carp pituitary treatment. Four groups were considered: Group 1 (G1), fish caught in the wild maintained for three years in the same conditions as the domesticated broodstocks and spawned naturally; Group 2 (G2), broodstock born and raised in captivity and spawned naturally; Group 3 (G3), wild broodstocks, which were manually stripped for gamete collection and dry fertilization; and Group 4 (G4), domesticated males and females, also manually stripped. Oocytes, eggs, and larvae were sampled at different time intervals throughout embryonic development. Yolk sac absorption occurred approximately 24-29 h after hatching. Twenty-six h after hatching, the larvae mouths opened. Cannibalism was identified just 28-30 h after hatching. There was no morphological difference in embryonic development among all groups. The number of released eggs per gram of female was: G1: 83.3 ± 24.5 and G2: 103.8 ± 37.4; however, the fertilization success was lower in G2 (42.0 ± 6.37 %) compared with G1 (54.7 ± 3.02%) (P = 0.011). Hand-stripping of oocytes was not successful and the fertilization rate was zero. The reproduction of this species in captivity is viable, but it is necessary to improve broodstock management to enhance fertilization rates and obtain better fingerling production for restocking programs.

Physiological implications of the regulation of vacuolar H+-ATPase by chloride ions

Vacuolar H+-ATPase is a large multi-subunit protein that mediates ATP-driven vectorial H+ transport across the membranes. It is widely distributed and present in virtually all eukaryotic cells in intracellular membranes or in the plasma membrane of specialized cells. In subcellular organelles, ATPase is responsible for the acidification of the vesicular interior, which requires an intraorganellar acidic pH to maintain optimal enzyme activity. Control of vacuolar H+-ATPase depends on the potential difference across the membrane in which the proton ATPase is inserted. Since the transport performed by H+-ATPase is electrogenic, translocation of H+-ions across the membranes by the pump creates a lumen-positive voltage in the absence of a neutralizing current, generating an electrochemical potential gradient that limits the activity of H+-ATPase. In many intracellular organelles and cell plasma membranes, this potential difference established by the ATPase gradient is normally dissipated by a parallel and passive Cl- movement, which provides an electric shunt compensating for the positive charge transferred by the pump. The underlying mechanisms for the differences in the requirement for chloride by different tissues have not yet been adequately identified, and there is still some controversy as to the molecular identity of the associated Cl--conducting proteins. Several candidates have been identified: the ClC family members, which may or may not mediate nCl-/H+ exchange, and the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator. In this review, we discuss some tissues where the association between H+-ATPase and chloride channels has been demonstrated and plays a relevant physiologic role.

Cyclic nitroxides inhibit the toxicity of nitric oxide-derived oxidants: mechanisms and implications

The substantial therapeutic potential of tempol (4-hydroxy-2,2,6,6-tetramethyl-1-piperidinyloxy) and related cyclic nitroxides as antioxidants has stimulated innumerous studies of their reactions with reactive oxygen species. In comparison, reactions of nitroxides with nitric oxide-derived oxidants have been less frequently investigated. Nevertheless, this is relevant because tempol has also been shown to protect animals from injuries associated with inflammatory conditions, which are characterized by the increased production of nitric oxide and its derived oxidants. Here, we review recent studies addressing the mechanisms by which cyclic nitroxides attenuate the toxicity of nitric oxidederived oxidants. As an example, we present data showing that tempol protects mice from acetaminophen-induced hepatotoxicity and discuss the possible protection mechanism. In view of the summarized studies, it is proposed that nitroxides attenuate tissue injury under inflammatory conditions mainly because of their ability to react rapidly with nitrogen dioxide and carbonate radical. In the process the nitroxides are oxidized to the corresponding oxammonium cation, which, in turn, can be recycled back to the nitroxides by reacting with upstream species, such as peroxynitrite and hydrogen peroxide, or with cellular reductants. An auxiliary protection mechanism may be down-regulation of inducible nitric oxide synthase expression. The possible therapeutic implications of these mechanisms are addressed.

Recommendations for folate intake in women: implications for public health strategies

Folate deficiency has been associated with anemia and other adverse outcomes in pregnancy such as neural tube defects. The current recommendations for prevention of such outcomes are difficult to achieve through diet only, and folic acid supplementation and food fortification are feasible public health strategies. However, it is necessary to determine the usual diet and supplement use among women of reproductive age, including an accurate assessment of other dietary micronutrients. In addition to the beneficial effects observed in randomized clinical trials, health risks to the population have also been widely evaluated and discussed in the scientific community: for a minority to benefit from fortification programs, many are exposed to high folic acid intake levels.

Influências metodológicas na mensuração de impacto: o caso das Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz e sua "qualificação"

In recent years, the availabity of citation indexes for evaluation of Brazilian scientific production has increased. The comparison between the results of the methodologies used to estimate indicators in the citation reports of SciELO database and in Journal Citation Reports (ISI-Thomson Scientific) made it possible to evaluate implications associated to the Brazilian scientific policy (Qualis), regarding some specific criteria. A period of 10 years was considered, taking into account two bibliometric indicators (the total of citations in a year and the Impact Factor) of the journal Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, which is indexed in both indexes. The correction of the indicators associated to this journal showed that the differences in the citation indexed were more expressive in 2001, having decreased in the last years. This reduction gives credibility to both databases, validating their systems for the production of bibliometric indicators.

Photolysis of ferric ions in the presence of sulfate or chloride ions: implications for the photo-Fenton process

The photo-Fenton process (Fe(2+)/Fe(3+), H(2)O(2), UV light) is one of the most efficient and advanced oxidation processes for the mineralization of the organic pollutants of industrial effluents and wastewater. The overall rate of the photo-Fenton process is controlled by the rate of the photolytic step that converts Fe(3+) back to Fe(2+). In this paper, the effect of sulfate or chloride ions on the net yield of Fe(2+) during the photolysis of Fe(3+) has been investigated in aqueous solution at pH 3.0 and 1.0 in the absence of hydrogen peroxide. A kinetic model based on the principal reactions that occur in the system fits the data for formation of Fe(2+) satisfactorily. Both experimental data and model prediction show that the availability of Fe(2+) produced by photolysis of Fe(3+) is inhibited much more in the presence of sulfate ion than in the presence of chloride ion as a function of the irradiation time at pH 3.0.

Brazilian foreign policy: Old and new paths as regards institutional aspects, multilateralism and foreign policy towards the South

This paper emphasizes the important changes in Brazilian foreign policy after Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took tip the power in 2002. The paper defends the idea that it is not possible to argue that there were deep changes in comparison to Cardoso's administration. However, evidence shows that new things are happening as regards the design of a more active and clear foreign action line which led to institutional changes and to more incisive multilateral paths. This results both from the political profile of the direct operators of foreign policy and the aims of lite presidential diplomacy, The hypothesis dealt with on this paper consists on the fact that Lula's administration has not fully broken with the old administration practices, however the aims of global and regional integration are being plotted more clearly and with a higher degree of activism. This becomes clear in three aspects of the Brazilian foreign policy: the institutional framework, the practice of multilateralism and the foreign policy towards the South, the three topics analyzed in this paper.

HTLV-1 Tax Specific CD8+ T Cells Express Low Levels of Tim-3 in HTLV-1 Infection: Implications for Progression to Neurological Complications

The T cell immunoglobulin mucin 3 (Tim-3) receptor is highly expressed on HIV-1-specific T cells, rendering them partially ""exhausted'' and unable to contribute to the effective immune mediated control of viral replication. To elucidate novel mechanisms contributing to the HTLV-1 neurological complex and its classic neurological presentation called HAM/TSP (HTLV-1 associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis), we investigated the expression of the Tim-3 receptor on CD8(+) T cells from a cohort of HTLV-1 seropositive asymptomatic and symptomatic patients. Patients diagnosed with HAM/TSP down-regulated Tim-3 expression on both CD8(+) and CD4(+) T cells compared to asymptomatic patients and HTLV-1 seronegative controls. HTLV-1 Tax-specific, HLA-A*02 restricted CD8(+) T cells among HAM/TSP individuals expressed markedly lower levels of Tim-3. We observed Tax expressing cells in both Tim-3(+) and Tim-3(-) fractions. Taken together, these data indicate that there is a systematic downregulation of Tim-3 levels on T cells in HTLV-1 infection, sustaining a profoundly highly active population of potentially pathogenic T cells that may allow for the development of HTLV-1 complications.

Cost risk benefit analysis to support chemoprophylaxis policy for travellers to malaria endemic countries

Background: In a number of malaria endemic regions, tourists and travellers face a declining risk of travel associated malaria, in part due to successful malaria control. Many millions of visitors to these regions are recommended, via national and international policy, to use chemoprophylaxis which has a well recognized morbidity profile. To evaluate whether current malaria chemo-prophylactic policy for travellers is cost effective when adjusted for endemic transmission risk and duration of exposure. a framework, based on partial cost-benefit analysis was used Methods: Using a three component model combining a probability component, a cost component and a malaria risk component, the study estimated health costs avoided through use of chemoprophylaxis and costs of disease prevention (including adverse events and pre-travel advice for visits to five popular high and low malaria endemic regions) and malaria transmission risk using imported malaria cases and numbers of travellers to malarious countries. By calculating the minimal threshold malaria risk below which the economic costs of chemoprophylaxis are greater than the avoided health costs we were able to identify the point at which chemoprophylaxis would be economically rational. Results: The threshold incidence at which malaria chemoprophylaxis policy becomes cost effective for UK travellers is an accumulated risk of 1.13% assuming a given set of cost parameters. The period a travellers need to remain exposed to achieve this accumulated risk varied from 30 to more than 365 days, depending on the regions intensity of malaria transmission. Conclusions: The cost-benefit analysis identified that chemoprophylaxis use was not a cost-effective policy for travellers to Thailand or the Amazon region of Brazil, but was cost-effective for travel to West Africa and for those staying longer than 45 days in India and Indonesia.