Risk Estimates of Dengue in Travelers to Dengue Endemic Areas Using Mathematical Models

Dengue has emerged as a frequent problem in international travelers. The risk depends on destination, duration, and season of travel. However, data to quantify the true risk for travelers to acquire dengue are lacking. We used mathematical models to estimate the risk of nonimmune persons to acquire dengue when traveling to Singapore. From the force of infection, we calculated the risk of dengue dependent on duration of stay and season of arrival. Our data highlight that the risk for nonimmune travelers to acquire dengue in Singapore is substantial but varies greatly with seasons and epidemic cycles. For instance, for a traveler who stays in Singapore for 1 week during the high dengue season in 2005, the risk of acquiring dengue was 0.17%, but it was only 0.00423% during the low season in a nonepidemic year such as 2002. Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling will help the travel medicine provider give better evidence-based advice for travelers to dengue endemic countries.

The constrained compartmentalized knapsack problem: mathematical models and solution methods

The constrained compartmentalized knapsack problem can be seen as an extension of the constrained knapsack problem. However, the items are grouped into different classes so that the overall knapsack has to be divided into compartments, and each compartment is loaded with items from the same class. Moreover, building a compartment incurs a fixed cost and a fixed loss of the capacity in the original knapsack, and the compartments are lower and upper bounded. The objective is to maximize the total value of the items loaded in the overall knapsack minus the cost of the compartments. This problem has been formulated as an integer non-linear program, and in this paper, we reformulate the non-linear model as an integer linear master problem with a large number of variables. Some heuristics based on the solution of the restricted master problem are investigated. A new and more compact integer linear model is also presented, which can be solved by a branch-and-bound commercial solver that found most of the optimal solutions for the constrained compartmentalized knapsack problem. On the other hand, heuristics provide good solutions with low computational effort. (C) 2011 Elsevier BM. All rights reserved.

Medida da visão em candelas: description of a psychophysical technique to quantify luminous intensity

OBJETIVO: Desenvolver um método e um dispositivo para quantificar a visão em candela (cd). Os estudos de medida da visão são importantes para todas as ciências visuais. MÉTODOS: É um estudo teórico e experimental. Foram descritos os detalhes do método psicofísico e da calibração do dispositivo. Foram realizados testes preliminares em voluntários. RESULTADOS: É um teste psicofísico simples e com resultado expresso em unidades do sistema internacional de medidas. Com a descrição técnica será possível reproduzir o experimento em outros centros de pesquisa. CONCLUSÃO: Os resultados aferidos em intensidade luminosa (cd) são uma opção para estudo visual. Esses resultados possibilitarão extrapolar medidas para modelos matemáticos e para simular efeitos individuais com dados aberrométricos.

Ventilation behavior in trained and untrained men during incremental test: evidence of one metabolic transition point

This study aimed to describe and compare the ventilation behavior during an incremental test utilizing three mathematical models and to compare the feature of ventilation curve fitted by the best mathematical model between aerobically trained (TR) and untrained ( UT) men. Thirty five subjects underwent a treadmill test with 1 km.h(-1) increases every minute until exhaustion. Ventilation averages of 20 seconds were plotted against time and fitted by: bi-segmental regression model (2SRM); three-segmental regression model (3SRM); and growth exponential model (GEM). Residual sum of squares (RSS) and mean square error (MSE) were calculated for each model. The correlations between peak VO2 (VO2PEAK), peak speed (Speed(PEAK)), ventilatory threshold identified by the best model (VT2SRM) and the first derivative calculated for workloads below (moderate intensity) and above (heavy intensity) VT2SRM were calculated. The RSS and MSE for GEM were significantly higher (p < 0.01) than for 2SRM and 3SRM in pooled data and in UT, but no significant difference was observed among the mathematical models in TR. In the pooled data, the first derivative of moderate intensities showed significant negative correlations with VT2SRM (r = -0.58; p < 0.01) and Speed(PEAK) (r = -0.46; p < 0.05) while the first derivative of heavy intensities showed significant negative correlation with VT2SRM (r = -0.43; p < 0.05). In UT group the first derivative of moderate intensities showed significant negative correlations with VT2SRM (r = -0.65; p < 0.05) and Speed(PEAK) (r = -0.61; p < 0.05), while the first derivative of heavy intensities showed significant negative correlation with VT2SRM (r= -0.73; p < 0.01), Speed(PEAK) (r = -0.73; p < 0.01) and VO2PEAK (r = -0.61; p < 0.05) in TR group. The ventilation behavior during incremental treadmill test tends to show only one threshold. UT subjects showed a slower ventilation increase during moderate intensities while TR subjects showed a slower ventilation increase during heavy intensities.

A Dynamic Analysis of Tuberculosis Dissemination to Improve Control and Surveillance

Background: Detailed analysis of the dynamic interactions among biological, environmental, social, and economic factors that favour the spread of certain diseases is extremely useful for designing effective control strategies. Diseases like tuberculosis that kills somebody every 15 seconds in the world, require methods that take into account the disease dynamics to design truly efficient control and surveillance strategies. The usual and well established statistical approaches provide insights into the cause-effect relationships that favour disease transmission but they only estimate risk areas, spatial or temporal trends. Here we introduce a novel approach that allows figuring out the dynamical behaviour of the disease spreading. This information can subsequently be used to validate mathematical models of the dissemination process from which the underlying mechanisms that are responsible for this spreading could be inferred. Methodology/Principal Findings: The method presented here is based on the analysis of the spread of tuberculosis in a Brazilian endemic city during five consecutive years. The detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal correlation of the yearly geo-referenced data, using different characteristic times of the disease evolution, allowed us to trace the temporal path of the aetiological agent, to locate the sources of infection, and to characterize the dynamics of disease spreading. Consequently, the method also allowed for the identification of socio-economic factors that influence the process. Conclusions/Significance: The information obtained can contribute to more effective budget allocation, drug distribution and recruitment of human skilled resources, as well as guiding the design of vaccination programs. We propose that this novel strategy can also be applied to the evaluation of other diseases as well as other social processes.

Ventilation behavior during upper-body incremental exercise

Pires, FO, Hammond, J, Lima-Silva, AE, Bertuzzi, RCM, and Kiss, MAPDM. Ventilation behavior during upper-body incremental exercise. J Strength Cond Res 25(1): 225-230, 2011-This study tested the ventilation (V(E)) behavior during upper-body incremental exercise by mathematical models that calculate 1 or 2 thresholds and compared the thresholds identified by mathematical models with V-slope, ventilatory equivalent for oxygen uptake (V(E)/(V) over dotO(2)), and ventilatory equivalent for carbon dioxide uptake (V(E)/(V) over dotCO(2)). Fourteen rock climbers underwent an upper-body incremental test on a cycle ergometer with increases of approximately 20 W.min(-1) until exhaustion at a cranking frequency of approximately 90 rpm. The V(E) data were smoothed to 10-second averages for V(E) time plotting. The bisegmental and the 3-segmental linear regression models were calculated from 1 or 2 intercepts that best shared the V(E) curve in 2 or 3 linear segments. The ventilatory threshold(s) was determined mathematically by the intercept(s) obtained by bisegmental and 3-segmental models, by V-slope model, or visually by V(E)/(V) over dotO(2) and V(E)/(V) over dotCO(2). There was no difference between bisegmental (mean square error [MSE] = 35.3 +/- 32.7 l.min(-1)) and 3-segmental (MSE = 44.9 +/- 47.8 l.min(-1)) models in fitted data. There was no difference between ventilatory threshold identified by the bisegmental (28.2 +/- 6.8 ml.kg(-1).min(-1)) and second ventilatory threshold identified by the 3-segmental (30.0 +/- 5.1 ml.kg(-1).min(-1)), V(E)/(V) over dotO(2) (28.8 +/- 5.5 ml.kg(-1).min(-1)), or V-slope (28.5 +/- 5.6 ml.kg(-1).min(-1)). However, the first ventilatory threshold identified by 3-segmental (23.1 +/- 4.9 ml.kg(-1).min(-1)) or by VE/(V) over dotO(2) (24.9 +/- 4.4 ml.kg(-1).min(-1)) was different from these 4. The V(E) behavior during upper-body exercise tends to show only 1 ventilatory threshold. These findings have practical implications because this point is frequently used for aerobic training prescription in healthy subjects, athletes, and in elderly or diseased populations. The ventilatory threshold identified by V(E) curve should be used for aerobic training prescription in healthy subjects and athletes.

Performance of different immobilized lipases in palm oil biodiesel synthesis

Performance of different immobilized lipases in palm oil biodiesel synthesis. Optimized conditions for palm oil and ethanol enzymatic biodiesel synthesis were determined with different immobilized lipases SiO(2)-PVA-immobilized lipase from Pseudomonas fluorescens and acrylic resin-immobilized lipase, Novozym (R) 435, from Candida antartica, in solvent-free medium. A full factorial design assessed the influence of temperature (42 - 58 degrees C) and ethanol: palm oil (6:1 - 18:1) molar ratio on the transesterification yield. Main effects were adjusted by multiple regression analysis to linear models and the maximum transesterification yield was obtained at 42 degrees C and 18:1 ethanol: palm oil molar ratio. Mathematical models featuring total yield for each immobilized lipase were suitable to describe the experimental results.

An approach based on neural networks for estimation and generalization of crossflow filtration processes

The crossflow filtration process differs of the conventional filtration by presenting the circulation flow tangentially to the filtration surface. The conventional mathematical models used to represent the process have some limitations in relation to the identification and generalization of the system behaviour. In this paper, a system based on artificial neural networks is developed to overcome the problems usually found in the conventional mathematical models. More specifically, the developed system uses an artificial neural network that simulates the behaviour of the crossflow filtration process in a robust way. Imprecisions and uncertainties associated with the measurements made on the system are automatically incorporated in the neural approach. Simulation results are presented to justify the validity of the proposed approach. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estudo de variabilidade e otimização do circuito de moagem SAG da Usina do Sossego

Sossego was the first Vale SAG mill operation to process copper-gold ore. It is located in the State of Para, southeastern Amazon region of Brazil. In the first three years of continuous operation, Vale investigated different alternatives for improving the circuit`s performance by investigating operating conditions, mainly focusing on the SAG mill. It was decided to further assess the performance of the comminution circuit as a function of ore characteristics. A comprehensive ore characterization program was then conducted, together with the calibration of mathematical models on the basis of surveys carried out at the industrial circuit. The simulator was then used to predict the throughput associated to each ore type, as well as to establish the optimized circuit configuration and tailored operating conditions. This paper describes in detail the main aspects of optimizing the industrial circuit performance, as well as the successful method for predicting the production as a function of ore characteristics and circuit configuration.

Modelling grain boundary migration during geometric dynamic recrystallization

High-angle grain boundary migration is predicted during geometric dynamic recrystallization (GDRX) by two types of mathematical models. Both models consider the driving pressure due to curvature and a sinusoidal driving pressure owing to subgrain walls connected to the grain boundary. One model is based on the finite difference solution of a kinetic equation, and the other, on a numerical technique in which the boundary is subdivided into linear segments. The models show that an initially flat boundary becomes serrated, with the peak and valley migrating into both adjacent grains, as observed during GDRX. When the sinusoidal driving pressure amplitude is smaller than 2 pi, the boundary stops migrating, reaching an equilibrium shape. Otherwise, when the amplitude is larger than 2 pi, equilibrium is never reached and the boundary migrates indefinitely, which would cause the protrusions of two serrated parallel boundaries to impinge on each other, creating smaller equiaxed grains.

Investigation of Cationic Polymerization of beta-Pinene Using Calorimetric Measurements

An experimental investigation of the kinetics of cationic polymerization of beta-pinene was performed using two different initiator systems under two different operating conditions (shot additions of initiator, and continuous feeding of monomer). The experiments were done using calorimetric measurements under isoperibolic conditions. The heat of polymerization of beta-pinene was found to be -30.6 kcal . mol(-1). A simple kinetic model was tentatively proposed, and the model fit reasonably well to the different experimental runs. Different values of the fitting parameters were obtained for runs carried out under different conditions, which can probably be ascribed to the presence of adventitious impurities in the commercial-grade monomer used.

Characterization of nicosulfuron availability in aged soils

Sorption-desorption interactions of pesticides with soil determine their availability for transport, plant uptake, and microbial degradation. These interactions are affected by the physical-chemical properties of the pesticide and soil, and for some pesticides, their residence time in the soil. This research evaluated changes in sorption/availability of nicosulfuron (2-[[[[(4,6-dimethoxy-2-pyrimidinyl]aminolcarbonyl]amino]sulfonyl]-N,N-dimethyl-3-pyridinecarboxamide) herbicide with aging in different soils, using a radiolabeled (C-14) tracer. Aging significantly increased sorption. For instance, after the 41-day incubation, calculated K-d,K-app increased by a factor of 2 to 3 in Mollisols from the Midwestern United States and by a factor of 5 to 9 in Oxisols from Brazil and Hawaii, as compared to freshly treated soils. In view of this outcome, potential transport of nicosulfuron would be overpredicted if freshly treated soil Kd values were used to predict transport. The fact that the nicosulfuron solution concentration decreased faster than the soil concentration with time suggested that the increase in sorption was because the rate of degradation in solution and on labile sites was faster than the rate of desorption of the neutral species from the soil particles. It may have also been due to nicosulfuron anion diffusion to less accessible sites with time, leaving the more strongly bound neutral molecules for the sorption characterization. Regardless of the mechanism, these results are further evidence that increases in sorption during pesticide aging should be taken into account during the characterization of the sorption process for mathematical models of pesticide degradation and transport.

Processing optimization of probiotic yogurt containing glucose oxidase using response surface methodology

Exposure to oxygen may induce a lack of functionality of probiotic dairy foods because the anaerobic metabolism of probiotic bacteria compromises during storage the maintenance of their viability to provide benefits to consumer health. Glucose oxidase can constitute a potential alternative to increase the survival of probiotic bacteria in yogurt because it consumes the oxygen permeating to the inside of the pot during storage, thus making it possible to avoid the use of chemical additives. This research aimed to optimize the processing of probiotic yogurt supplemented with glucose oxidase using response surface methodology and to determine the levels of glucose and glucose oxidase that minimize the concentration of dissolved oxygen and maximize the Bifidobacterium longum count by the desirability function. Response surface methodology mathematical models adequately described the process, with adjusted determination coefficients of 83% for the oxygen and 94% for the B. longum. Linear and quadratic effects of the glucose oxidase were reported for the oxygen model, whereas for the B. longum count model an influence of the glucose oxidase at the linear level was observed followed by the quadratic influence of glucose and quadratic effect of glucose oxidase. The desirability function indicated that 62.32 ppm of glucose oxidase and 4.35 ppm of glucose was the best combination of these components for optimization of probiotic yogurt processing. An additional validation experiment was performed and results showed acceptable error between the predicted and experimental results.

Pharmacodynamics of PEG-IFN-alpha-2a and HCV Response as a Function of IL28B Polymorphism in HIV/HCV-Coinfected Patients

We examined the association between IL28B single-nucleotide polymorphism rs12979860, hepatitis C virus (HCV) kinetic, and pegylated interferon alpha-2a pharmacodynamic parameters in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients from South America. Twenty-six subjects received pegylated interferon alpha-2a + ribavirin. Serum HCV-RNA and interferon concentrations were measured frequently during the first 12 weeks of therapy and analyzed using mathematical models. African Americans and whites had a similar distribution of IL28B genotypes (P = 0.5). The IL28B CC genotype was overrepresented (P = 0.015) in patients infected with HCV genotype-3 compared with genotype-1. In both genotype-1 and genotype-3, the first-phase viral decline and the average pegylated interferon-alpha-2a effectiveness during the first week of therapy were larger (trend P <= 0.12) in genotype-CC compared with genotypes-TC/TT. In genotype-1 patients, the second slower phase of viral decline (days 2-29) and infected cells loss rate, delta, were larger (P = 0.02 and 0.11, respectively) in genotype-CC than in genotypes-TC/TT. These associations were not observed in genotype-3 patients.

THE TEMPO AND MODE OF EVOLUTION OF TRANSPOSABLE ELEMENTS AS REVEALED BY MOLECULAR PHYLOGENIES RECONSTRUCTED FROM MOSQUITO GENOMES

Although many mathematical models exist predicting the dynamics of transposable elements (TEs), there is a lack of available empirical data to validate these models and inherent assumptions. Genomes can provide a snapshot of several TE families in a single organism, and these could have their demographics inferred by coalescent analysis, allowing for the testing of theories on TE amplification dynamics. Using the available genomes of the mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Anopheles gambiae, we indicate that such an approach is feasible. Our analysis follows four steps: (1) mining the two mosquito genomes currently available in search of TE families; (2) fitting, to selected families found in (1), a phylogeny tree under the general time-reversible (GTR) nucleotide substitution model with an uncorrelated lognormal (UCLN) relaxed clock and a nonparametric demographic model; (3) fitting a nonparametric coalescent model to the tree generated in (2); and (4) fitting parametric models motivated by ecological theories to the curve generated in (3).