Dynamical models for computer viruses propagation

Nowadays, digital computer systems and networks are the main engineering tools, being used in planning, design, operation, and control of all sizes of building, transportation, machinery, business, and life maintaining devices. Consequently, computer viruses became one of the most important sources of uncertainty, contributing to decrease the reliability of vital activities. A lot of antivirus programs have been developed, but they are limited to detecting and removing infections, based on previous knowledge of the virus code. In spite of having good adaptation capability, these programs work just as vaccines against diseases and are not able to prevent new infections based on the network state. Here, a trial on modeling computer viruses propagation dynamics relates it to other notable events occurring in the network permitting to establish preventive policies in the network management. Data from three different viruses are collected in the Internet and two different identification techniques, autoregressive and Fourier analyses, are applied showing that it is possible to forecast the dynamics of a new virus propagation by using the data collected from other viruses that formerly infected the network. Copyright (c) 2008 J. R. C. Piqueira and F. B. Cesar. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Expectation Propagation with Factorizing Distributions: A Gaussian Approximation and Performance Results for Simple Models

We discuss the expectation propagation (EP) algorithm for approximate Bayesian inference using a factorizing posterior approximation. For neural network models, we use a central limit theorem argument to make EP tractable when the number of parameters is large. For two types of models, we show that EP can achieve optimal generalization performance when data are drawn from a simple distribution.

Rumor Propagation Model: An Equilibrium Study

Compartmental epidemiological models have been developed since the 1920s and successfully applied to study the propagation of infectious diseases. Besides, due to their structure, in the 1960s an interesting version of these models was developed to clarify some aspects of rumor propagation, considering that spreading an infectious disease or disseminating information is analogous phenomena. Here, in an analogy with the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) epidemiological model, the ISS (Ignorant-Spreader-Stifler) rumor spreading model is studied. By using concepts from the Dynamical Systems Theory, stability of equilibrium points is established, according to propagation parameters and initial conditions. Some numerical experiments are conducted in order to validate the model.

Generalized Sznajd model for opinion propagation

In the last decade the Sznajd model has been successfully employed in modeling some properties and scale features of both proportional and majority elections. We propose a version of the Sznajd model with a generalized bounded confidence rule-a rule that limits the convincing capability of agents and that is essential to allow coexistence of opinions in the stationary state. With an appropriate choice of parameters it can be reduced to previous models. We solved this model both in a mean-field approach (for an arbitrary number of opinions) and numerically in a Barabaacutesi-Albert network (for three and four opinions), studying the transient and the possible stationary states. We built the phase portrait for the special cases of three and four opinions, defining the attractors and their basins of attraction. Through this analysis, we were able to understand and explain discrepancies between mean-field and simulation results obtained in previous works for the usual Sznajd model with bounded confidence and three opinions. Both the dynamical system approach and our generalized bounded confidence rule are quite general and we think it can be useful to the understanding of other similar models.

Coupled reliability and boundary element model for probabilistic fatigue life assessment in mixed mode crack propagation

Fatigue and crack propagation are phenomena affected by high uncertainties, where deterministic methods fail to predict accurately the structural life. The present work aims at coupling reliability analysis with boundary element method. The latter has been recognized as an accurate and efficient numerical technique to deal with mixed mode propagation, which is very interesting for reliability analysis. The coupled procedure allows us to consider uncertainties during the crack growth process. In addition, it computes the probability of fatigue failure for complex structural geometry and loading. Two coupling procedures are considered: direct coupling of reliability and mechanical solvers and indirect coupling by the response surface method. Numerical applications show the performance of the proposed models in lifetime assessment under uncertainties, where the direct method has shown faster convergence than response surface method. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimization and Complexity Reduction of Switch-Reconfigured Antennas Using Graph Models

This letter addresses the optimization and complexity reduction of switch-reconfigured antennas. A new optimization technique based on graph models is investigated. This technique is used to minimize the redundancy in a reconfigurable antenna structure and reduce its complexity. A graph modeling rule for switch-reconfigured antennas is proposed, and examples are presented.

Dynamic models for computer viruses

Computer viruses are an important risk to computational systems endangering either corporations of all sizes or personal computers used for domestic applications. Here, classical epidemiological models for disease propagation are adapted to computer networks and, by using simple systems identification techniques a model called SAIC (Susceptible, Antidotal, Infectious, Contaminated) is developed. Real data about computer viruses are used to validate the model. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sexual differentiation of cortical spreading depression propagation after acute and kindled audiogenic seizures in the Wistar audiogenic rat (WAR)

Brain excitability diseases like epilepsy constitute one factor that influences brain electrophysiological features. Cortical spreading depression (CSD) is a phenomenon that can be altered by changes in brain excitability. CSD propagation was presently characterized in adult mate and female rats from a normal Wistar strain and from a genetically audiogenic seizure-prone strain, the Wistar audiogenic rat (WAR), both previously submitted (RAS(+)), or not (RAS(-)), to repetitive acoustic stimulation, to provoke audiogenic kindling in the WAR-strain. A gender-specific change in CSD-propagation was found. Compared to seizure-resistant animals, in the RAS- condition, mate and female WARs, respectively, presented CSD-propagation impairment and facilitation, characterized, respectively, by lower and higher propagation velocities (P<0.05). In contraposition, in the RAS(+) condition, mate and female WARs displayed, respectively, higher and tower CSD-propagation rates, as compared to the corresponding controls. In some Wistar and WAR females, we determined estrous cycle status on the day of the CSD-recording as being either estrous or diestrous; no cycle-phase-related differences in CSD-propagation velocities were detected. In contrast to other epilepsy models, such as Status Epilepticus induced by pilocarpine, despite the CSD-velocity reduction, in no case was CSD propagation blocked in WARs. The results suggest a gender-related, estrous cycle-phase-independent modification in the CSD-susceptibility of WAR rats, both in the RAS(+) and RAS(-) situation. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exact Search Directions for Optimization of Linear and Nonlinear Models Based on Generalized Orthonormal Functions

A novel technique for selecting the poles of orthonormal basis functions (OBF) in Volterra models of any order is presented. It is well-known that the usual large number of parameters required to describe the Volterra kernels can be significantly reduced by representing each kernel using an appropriate basis of orthonormal functions. Such a representation results in the so-called OBF Volterra model, which has a Wiener structure consisting of a linear dynamic generated by the orthonormal basis followed by a nonlinear static mapping given by the Volterra polynomial series. Aiming at optimizing the poles that fully parameterize the orthonormal bases, the exact gradients of the outputs of the orthonormal filters with respect to their poles are computed analytically by using a back-propagation-through-time technique. The expressions relative to the Kautz basis and to generalized orthonormal bases of functions (GOBF) are addressed; the ones related to the Laguerre basis follow straightforwardly as a particular case. The main innovation here is that the dynamic nature of the OBF filters is fully considered in the gradient computations. These gradients provide exact search directions for optimizing the poles of a given orthonormal basis. Such search directions can, in turn, be used as part of an optimization procedure to locate the minimum of a cost-function that takes into account the error of estimation of the system output. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is adopted here as the optimization procedure. Unlike previous related work, the proposed approach relies solely on input-output data measured from the system to be modeled, i.e., no information about the Volterra kernels is required. Examples are presented to illustrate the application of this approach to the modeling of dynamic systems, including a real magnetic levitation system with nonlinear oscillatory behavior.

Black-box decomposition approach for computational hemodynamics: One-dimensional models

Increasing efforts exist in integrating different levels of detail in models of the cardiovascular system. For instance, one-dimensional representations are employed to model the systemic circulation. In this context, effective and black-box-type decomposition strategies for one-dimensional networks are needed, so as to: (i) employ domain decomposition strategies for large systemic models (1D-1D coupling) and (ii) provide the conceptual basis for dimensionally-heterogeneous representations (1D-3D coupling, among various possibilities). The strategy proposed in this article works for both of these two scenarios, though the several applications shown to illustrate its performance focus on the 1D-1D coupling case. A one-dimensional network is decomposed in such a way that each coupling point connects two (and not more) of the sub-networks. At each of the M connection points two unknowns are defined: the flow rate and pressure. These 2M unknowns are determined by 2M equations, since each sub-network provides one (non-linear) equation per coupling point. It is shown how to build the 2M x 2M non-linear system with arbitrary and independent choice of boundary conditions for each of the sub-networks. The idea is then to solve this non-linear system until convergence, which guarantees strong coupling of the complete network. In other words, if the non-linear solver converges at each time step, the solution coincides with what would be obtained by monolithically modeling the whole network. The decomposition thus imposes no stability restriction on the choice of the time step size. Effective iterative strategies for the non-linear system that preserve the black-box character of the decomposition are then explored. Several variants of matrix-free Broyden`s and Newton-GMRES algorithms are assessed as numerical solvers by comparing their performance on sub-critical wave propagation problems which range from academic test cases to realistic cardiovascular applications. A specific variant of Broyden`s algorithm is identified and recommended on the basis of its computer cost and reliability. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A new class of survival regression models with heavy-tailed errors: robustness and diagnostics

Birnbaum-Saunders models have largely been applied in material fatigue studies and reliability analyses to relate the total time until failure with some type of cumulative damage. In many problems related to the medical field, such as chronic cardiac diseases and different types of cancer, a cumulative damage caused by several risk factors might cause some degradation that leads to a fatigue process. In these cases, BS models can be suitable for describing the propagation lifetime. However, since the cumulative damage is assumed to be normally distributed in the BS distribution, the parameter estimates from this model can be sensitive to outlying observations. In order to attenuate this influence, we present in this paper BS models, in which a Student-t distribution is assumed to explain the cumulative damage. In particular, we show that the maximum likelihood estimates of the Student-t log-BS models attribute smaller weights to outlying observations, which produce robust parameter estimates. Also, some inferential results are presented. In addition, based on local influence and deviance component and martingale-type residuals, a diagnostics analysis is derived. Finally, a motivating example from the medical field is analyzed using log-BS regression models. Since the parameter estimates appear to be very sensitive to outlying and influential observations, the Student-t log-BS regression model should attenuate such influences. The model checking methodologies developed in this paper are used to compare the fitted models.

Comparative study of dental arch width in plaster models, photocopies and digitized images

The aim of this study was to comparatively assess dental arch width, in the canine and molar regions, by means of direct measurements from plaster models, photocopies and digitized images of the models. The sample consisted of 130 pairs of plaster models, photocopies and digitized images of the models of white patients (n = 65), both genders, with Class I and Class II Division 1 malocclusions, treated by standard Edgewise mechanics and extraction of the four first premolars. Maxillary and mandibular intercanine and intermolar widths were measured by a calibrated examiner, prior to and after orthodontic treatment, using the three modes of reproduction of the dental arches. Dispersion of the data relative to pre- and posttreatment intra-arch linear measurements (mm) was represented as box plots. The three measuring methods were compared by one-way ANOVA for repeated measurements (α = 0.05). Initial / final mean values varied as follows: 33.94 to 34.29 mm / 34.49 to 34.66 mm (maxillary intercanine width); 26.23 to 26.26 mm / 26.77 to 26.84 mm (mandibular intercanine width); 49.55 to 49.66 mm / 47.28 to 47.45 mm (maxillary intermolar width) and 43.28 to 43.41 mm / 40.29 to 40.46 mm (mandibular intermolar width). There were no statistically significant differences between mean dental arch widths estimated by the three studied methods, prior to and after orthodontic treatment. It may be concluded that photocopies and digitized images of the plaster models provided reliable reproductions of the dental arches for obtaining transversal intra-arch measurements.

Linear dimensional changes in plaster die models using different elastomeric materials

Dental impression is an important step in the preparation of prostheses since it provides the reproduction of anatomic and surface details of teeth and adjacent structures. The objective of this study was to evaluate the linear dimensional alterations in gypsum dies obtained with different elastomeric materials, using a resin coping impression technique with individual shells. A master cast made of stainless steel with fixed prosthesis characteristics with two prepared abutment teeth was used to obtain the impressions. References points (A, B, C, D, E and F) were recorded on the occlusal and buccal surfaces of abutments to register the distances. The impressions were obtained using the following materials: polyether, mercaptan-polysulfide, addition silicone, and condensation silicone. The transfer impressions were made with custom trays and an irreversible hydrocolloid material and were poured with type IV gypsum. The distances between identified points in gypsum dies were measured using an optical microscope and the results were statistically analyzed by ANOVA (p < 0.05) and Tukey's test. The mean of the distances were registered as follows: addition silicone (AB = 13.6 µm, CD=15.0 µm, EF = 14.6 µm, GH=15.2 µm), mercaptan-polysulfide (AB = 36.0 µm, CD = 36.0 µm, EF = 39.6 µm, GH = 40.6 µm), polyether (AB = 35.2 µm, CD = 35.6 µm, EF = 39.4 µm, GH = 41.4 µm) and condensation silicone (AB = 69.2 µm, CD = 71.0 µm, EF = 80.6 µm, GH = 81.2 µm). All of the measurements found in gypsum dies were compared to those of a master cast. The results demonstrated that the addition silicone provides the best stability of the compounds tested, followed by polyether, polysulfide and condensation silicone. No statistical differences were obtained between polyether and mercaptan-polysulfide materials.

Allometric models for estimating the phytomass of a secondary Atlantic Forest area of southeastern Brazil

The purpose of this study was to develop and validate equations to estimate the aboveground phytomass of a 30 years old plot of Atlantic Forest. In two plots of 100 m², a total of 82 trees were cut down at ground level. For each tree, height and diameter were measured. Leaves and woody material were separated in order to determine their fresh weights in field conditions. Samples of each fraction were oven dried at 80 °C to constant weight to determine their dry weight. Tree data were divided into two random samples. One sample was used for the development of the regression equations, and the other for validation. The models were developed using single linear regression analysis, where the dependent variable was the dry mass, and the independent variables were height (h), diameter (d) and d²h. The validation was carried out using Pearson correlation coefficient, paired t-Student test and standard error of estimation. The best equations to estimate aboveground phytomass were: lnDW = -3.068+2.522lnd (r² = 0.91; s y/x = 0.67) and lnDW = -3.676+0.951ln d²h (r² = 0.94; s y/x = 0.56).

Descriptor-and fragment-based QSAR models for a series of Schistosoma mansoni purine nucleoside inhibitors

The enzyme purine nucleoside phosphorylase from Schistosoma mansoni (SmPNP) is an attractive molecular target for the treatment of major parasitic infectious diseases, with special emphasis on its role in the discovery of new drugs against schistosomiasis, a tropical disease that affects millions of people worldwide. In the present work, we have determined the inhibitory potency and developed descriptor- and fragment-based quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) for a series of 9-deazaguanine analogs as inhibitors of SmPNP. Significant statistical parameters (descriptor-based model: r² = 0.79, q² = 0.62, r²pred = 0.52; and fragment-based model: r² = 0.95, q² = 0.81, r²pred = 0.80) were obtained, indicating the potential of the models for untested compounds. The fragment-based model was then used to predict the inhibitory potency of a test set of compounds, and the predicted values are in good agreement with the experimental results