Loss minimization by the predictor-corrector modified barrier approach

This paper presents a new approach, predictor-corrector modified barrier approach (PCMBA), to minimize the active losses in power system planning studies. In the PCMBA, the inequality constraints are transformed into equalities by introducing positive auxiliary variables. which are perturbed by the barrier parameter, and treated by the modified barrier method. The first-order necessary conditions of the Lagrangian function are solved by predictor-corrector Newton`s method. The perturbation of the auxiliary variables results in an expansion of the feasible set of the original problem, reaching the limits of the inequality constraints. The feasibility of the proposed approach is demonstrated using various IEEE test systems and a realistic power system of 2256-bus corresponding to the Brazilian South-Southeastern interconnected system. The results show that the utilization of the predictor-corrector method with the pure modified barrier approach accelerates the convergence of the problem in terms of the number of iterations and computational time. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exhaled nitric oxide as a predictor of exacerbation in children with moderate-to-severe asthma: a prospective, 5-month study

Background: Inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs) are recommended as the first line of treatment in children with moderate-to-severe asthma. Exhaled nitric oxide (ENO) has been proposed as a clinically useful marker of control that might help identify patients in whom ICS dose may be safely reduced. Objective: To evaluate the ability of ENO to predict future asthma exacerbations in children with moderate-to-severe asthma undergoing ICS tapering. Methods: This is an observational study with no control group. ENO was measured biweekly for 14 weeks in 32 children with moderate-to-severe asthma who were undergoing ICS tapering. Clinical evaluations and spirometry were performed concomitantly, and families kept daily diaries to record symptoms between visits. We used generalized estimating equations to model the In (odds) of an asthma exacerbation in the subsequent 2-week interval as a function of ENO level at the start of the interval while adjusting for age, sex, asthma severity, and current medication use. Results: We were able to successfully lower ICS doses in 10 (56%) of the 18 children with moderate asthma and in 3 (21%) of the 14 children with severe asthma. In 83 of the 187 follow-up clinical evaluations, children were determined to have had an exacerbation during the preceding 2 weeks. ENO levels, whether expressed as a continuous variable or dichotomized, were not associated with future risk for exacerbations in either unadjusted or adjusted models. Conclusion: ENO was not a useful clinical predictor of future asthma exacerbations for children with moderate-to-severe asthma undergoing ICS tapering. Ann Allergy Asthma Immunol. 2009; 103:206-211.

FGF-23 as a Predictor of Renal Outcome in Diabetic Nephropathy

Background and objectives Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF-23) has emerged as a new factor in mineral metabolism in chronic kidney disease (CKD). An important regulator of phosphorus homeostasis, FGF-23 has been shown to independently predict CKD progression in nondiabetic renal disease. We analyzed the relation between FGF-23 and renal outcome in diabetic nephropathy (DN). Design, setting, participants, & measurements DN patients participating in a clinical trial (enalapril+placebo versus enalapril+losartan) had baseline data collected and were followed until June 2009 or until the primary outcome was reached. Four patients were lost to follow-up. The composite primary outcome was defined as death, doubling of serum creatinine, and/or dialysis need. Results At baseline, serum FGF-23 showed a significant association with serum creatinine, intact parathyroid hormone, proteirturia, urinary fractional excretion of phosphate, male sex, and race. Interestingly, FGF-23 was not related to calcium, phosphorus, 25OH-vitamin D, or 24-hour urinary phosphorus. Mean follow-up time was 30.7 +/- 10 months. Cox regression showed that FGF-23 was an independent predictor of the primary outcome, even after adjustment for creatinine clearance and intact parathyroid hormone (10 pg/ml FGF-23 increase = hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.16, P = 0.02). Finally, Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significantly higher risk of the primary outcome in patients with FGF-23 values of >70 pg/ml. Conclusions FGF-23 is a significant independent predictor of renal outcome in patients with macroalbuminuric DN. Further studies should clarify whether this relation is causal and whether FGF-23 should be a new therapeutic target for CKD prevention. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol 6: 241-247, 2011. doi: 10.2215/CJN.04250510

Depression: a predictor of smoking relapse in a 6-month follow-up after hospitalization for acute coronary syndrome

Objective The objective of the study was to investigate whether depression is a predictor of postdischarge smoking relapse among patients hospitalized for myocardial infarction (MI) or unstable angina (ILIA), in a smoke-free hospital. Methods Current smokers with MI or UA were interviewed while hospitalized; patients classified with major depression (MD) or no humor disorder were reinterviewed 6 months post discharge to ascertain smoking status. Potential predictors of relapse (depression; stress; anxiety; heart disease risk perception; coffee and alcohol consumption; sociodemographic, clinical, and smoking habit characteristics) were compared between those with MD (n = 268) and no humor disorder (n = 135). Results Relapsers (40.4%) were more frequently and more severely depressed, had higher anxiety and lower self-efficacy scale scores, diagnosis of UA, shorter hospitalizations, started smoking younger, made fewer attempts to quit, had a consort less often, and were more frequently at the `precontemplation` stage of change. Multivariate analysis showed relapse-positive predictors to be MD [odds ratio (OR): 2.549; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.519-4.275] (P<0.001); `precontemplation` stage of change (OR: 7.798; 95% CI: 2.442-24.898) (P<0.001); previous coronary bypass graft surgery (OR: 4.062; 95% CI: 1.356-12.169) (P=0.012); and previous anxiolytic use (OR: 2.365; 95% CI: 1.095-5.107) (P=0.028). Negative predictors were diagnosis of MI (OR: 0.575; 95% CI: 0.361-0.916) (P=0.019); duration of hospitalization (OR: 0.935; 95% CI: 0.898-0.973) (P=0.001); smoking onset age (OR: 0.952; 95% CI: 0.910-0.994) (P=0.028); number of attempts to quit smoking (OR: 0.808; 95% CI: 0.678-0.964) (P=0.018); and `action` stage of change (OR: 0.065; 95% CI: 0.008-0.532) (P= 0.010). Conclusion Depression, no motivation, shorter hospitalization, and severity of illness contributed to postdischarge resumption of smoking by patients with acute coronary syndrome, who underwent hospital-initiated smoking cessation.

Development of an IgG4-Based Predictor of Endemic Pemphigus Foliaceus (Fogo Selvagem)

Fogo selvagem (FS) is mediated by pathogenic, predominantly IgG4, anti-desmoglein 1 (Dsg1) autoantibodies and is endemic in Limao Verde, Brazil. IgG and IgG subclass autoantibodies were tested in a sample of 214 FS patients and 261 healthy controls by Dsg1 ELISA. For model selection, the sample was randomly divided into training (50%), validation (25%), and test (25%) sets. Using the training and validation sets, IgG4 was chosen as the best predictor of FS, with index values above 6.43 classified as FS. Using the test set, IgG4 has sensitivity of 92% (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 82-95%), specificity of 97% (95% CI: 89-100%), and area under the curve of 0.97 ( 95% CI: 0.94-1.00). The IgG4 positive predictive value (PPV) in Limao Verde (3% FS prevalence) was 49%. The sensitivity, specificity, and PPV of IgG anti-Dsg1 were 87, 91, and 23%, respectively. The IgG4-based classifier was validated by testing 11 FS patients before and after clinical disease and 60 Japanese pemphigus foliaceus patients. It classified 21 of 96 normal individuals from a Limao Verde cohort as having FS serology. On the basis of its PPV, half of the 21 individuals may currently have preclinical FS and could develop clinical disease in the future. Identifying individuals during preclinical FS will enhance our ability to identify the etiological agent(s) triggering FS.

FibroTest is an independent predictor of virologic response in chronic hepatitis C patients retreated with pegylated interferon alfa-2b and ribavirin in the EPIC(3) program

Background & Aims: EPIC-3 is a prospective, international study that has demonstrated the efficacy of PEG-IFN alfa-2b plus weight-based ribavirin in patients with chronic hepatitis C and significant fibrosis who previously failed any interferon-alfa/ribavirin therapy. The aim of the present study was to assess FibroTest (FT), a validated non-invasive marker of fibrosis in treatment-naive patients, as a possible alternative to biopsy as the baseline predictor of subsequent early virologic (EVR) and sustained virologic response (SVR) in previously treated patients. Methods: Of 2312 patients enrolled, 1459 had an available baseline FT, biopsy, and complete data. Uni- (UV) and multi-variable (MV) analyses were performed using FT and biopsy. Results: Baseline characteristics were similar as in the overall population; METAVIR stage: 28% F2, 29% F3, and 43% F4, previous relapsers 29%, previous PEG-IFN regimen 41%, high baseline viral load (BVL) 64%. 506 patients (35%) had undetectable HCV-RNA at TW12 (TW12neg), with 58% achieving SVR. The accuracy of FT was similar to that in naive patients: AUROC curve for the diagnosis of F4 vs F2 = 0.80 (p<0.00001). Five baseline factors were associated (p<0.001) with SVR in UV and MV analyses (odds ratio: UV/MV): fibrosis stage estimated using FT (4.5/5.9) or biopsy (1.5/1.6), genotype 2/3 (4.5/5.1), BVL (1.5/1.3), prior relapse (1.6/1.6), previous treatment with non-PEG-IFN (2.6/2.0). These same factors were associated (p <= 0.001) with EVR. Among patients TW12neg, two independent factors remained highly predictive of SVR by MV analysis (p <= 0.001): genotype 2/3 (odds ratio = 2.9), fibrosis estimated with FT (4.3) or by biopsy (1.5). Conclusions: FibroTest at baseline is a possible non-invasive alternative to biopsy for the prediction of EVR at 12 weeks and SVR, in patients with previous failures and advanced fibrosis, retreated with PEG-IFN alfa-2b and ribavirin. (C) 2010 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Increased Immunoglobulin G Anti-Paracoccidioides brasiliensis Serum Antibody Avidity as a Predictor of Favorable Posttherapeutic Evolution in Paracoccidioidomycosis

Paracoccidioidomycosis is endemic in Latin America, and ca. 80% of all cases occur in Brazil. Little is known about antibody avidity or the evolution of such avidity in the posttherapeutic period for the different clinical presentations of the disease. In the present study, we evaluated 53 patients with paracoccidioidomycosis and calculated the avidity index. Medium-and high-avidity antibodies were found in 79.5% of patients with chronic presentation (n = 39). Among patients with the acute form (n = 14), 57.1% of the antibodies presented low avidity. In the posttherapeutic period, there was a significant increase in antibody avidity in patients presenting with the chronic multifocal form. In our preliminary study, which needs to be confirmed using a larger number of samples, the optimized method for studying antibody avidity detected differences among the clinical presentations of the mycosis and indicated the value of the avidity index as a marker of posttherapeutic evolution of patients with a multifocal chronic form of the disease.

Bowel dilation as a predictor of adverse outcome in isolated fetal gastroschisis

Objectives This study was designed to evaluate bowel diameter as a predictor of adverse outcome in isolated fetal gastroschisis Methods Retrospective study involving 94 singleton pregnancies Ultrasound measurements of herniated bowel transverse diameter (BTD) were performed up to 3 weeks before delivery Adverse outcome was intrauterine/neonatal death and/or bowel complications Results Last BTD was recorded at 35 6 +/- 1 6 weeks and mean interval to delivery was 6 2 +/- 5 0 days Intrauterine/neonatal death occurred in 10 (10 6%) cases, bowel complications were observed in 8 (8 5%) BTD >= 15, >= 20, >= 25, and >= 30 mm were found in 87, 46, 13, and 4% of pregnancies with a favorable outcome. respectively BTD >= 25 mm sensitivity was 38%. and positive and negative predictive values were 38 and 87% For BTD >= 30 mm. the values were 19, 50, and 85% Observed/expected BTD ROC curve showed an area of 0 67, best cut-off value at 1 39, prediction values were similar to those for BTD >= 25 mm Bowel dilatation was also significantly associated with lower rate of primary surgical closure. longer period to full oral feeding, and prolonged hospital stay Conclusions Bowel dilatation demonstrated up to 3 weeks before delivery is a predictor of intestinal complications and is associated with lower late of primary surgical closure, longer period to achieve full oral feeding. and hospital stay Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Endometrial leukemia inhibitory factor as a predictor of pregnancy after in vitro fertilization

Objective: To determine whether there is an association between endometrial expression of leukemia inhibitory factor (LIF) in the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle preceding in vitro fertilization (IVF) and treatment outcome. Methods: Biopsy specimens from the endometria of 52 women in the luteal. phase were immunostained against LIF Embryo culture and transfer were done according to standard procedures. Results: Clinical pregnancy occurred in 39% of the women following IVF, and strong endometrial immunohistochemical staining for LIF was associated with pregnancy (P=0.01). The women with a strong LIF expression had a 6.4-fold higher chance of becoming pregnant than those with weaker intensities (P=0.005). Conclusion: Endometrial expression of LIF during the luteal phase can be used as a predictor of IVF success. (C) 2008 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Myocardial Perfusion Imaging Is a Strong Predictor of Death in Women

OBJECTIVES We sought to assess the prognostic value and risk classification improvement using contemporary single-photon emission computed tomography myocardial perfusion imaging (SPECT-MPI) to predict all-cause mortality. BACKGROUND Myocardial perfusion is a strong estimator of prognosis. Evidence published to date has not established the added prognostic value of SPECT-MPI nor defined an approach to detect improve classification of risk in women from a developing nation. METHODS A total of 2,225 women referred for SPECT-MPI were followed by a mean period of 3.7 +/- 1.4 years. SPECT-MPI results were classified as abnormal on the presence of any perfusion defect. Abnormal scans were further classified as with mild/moderate reversible, severe reversible, partial reversible, or fixed perfusion defects. Risk estimates for incident mortality were categorized as <1%/year, 1% to 2%/year, and >2%/year using Cox proportional hazard models. Risk-adjusted models incorporated clinical risk factors, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and perfusion variables. RESULTS All-cause death occurred in 139 patients. SPECT-MPI significantly risk stratified the population; patients with abnormal scans had significantly higher death rates compared with patients with normal scans, 13.1% versus 4.0%, respectively (p < 0.001). Cox analysis demonstrated that after adjusting for clinical risk factors and LVEF, SPECT-MPI improved the model discrimination (integrated discrimination index = 0.009; p = 0.02), added significant incremental prognostic information (global chi-square increased from 87.7 to 127.1; p < 0.0001), and improved risk prediction (net reclassification improvement = 0.12; p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS SPECT-MPI added significant incremental prognostic information to clinical and left ventricular functional variables while enhancing the ability to classify this Brazilian female population into low-and high-risk categories of all-cause mortality. (J Am Coll Cardiol Img 2011;4:880-8) (C) 2011 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation

Isoforms of hyaluronidases can be a predictor of a prostate cancer of good prognosis

Introduction: Hyaluronidases (HAases) are enzymes related to cancer progression. Isoforms of HAases have been described as products of alternative splicing responsible for differences in enzyme activity. The heterogeneity of HAase expression has been identified in tumors and could be related to the differences in their biological behavior. Methods: Thirty-seven patients subjected to radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer were divided into 2 groups for the analyses: Low (<= 6-18) and high (>= 7-19) Gleason score and tumor behavior; recurrence 15 and nonrecurrence 22, mean follow-up 52.6 months. Conclusion: A profile of HAase related to low Gleason score and non-tumor recurrence was characterized by expression of HYAL3-v1, HYAL1-v3, and HYAL3-v2. More studies should be made in order to confirm with larger series. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Preoperative respiratory muscle dysfunction is a predictor of prolonged invasive mechanical ventilation in cardiorespiratory complications after heart valve surgery

Objective: To verify whether preoperative respiratory muscle strength and ventilometric parameters, among other clinically relevant factors, are associated with the need for prolonged invasive mechanical ventilation (PIMV) due to cardiorespiratory complications following heart valve surgery. Methods: Demographics, preoperative ventilometric and manometric data, and the hospital course of 171 patients, who had undergone heart valve surgery at Hospital das Clinicas da Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirao Preto, were prospectively collected and subjected to univariate analysis for identifying the risk factors for PIMV. Results: The hospital mortality was 7%. About 6% of the patients, who had undergone heart valve surgery required PIMV because of postoperative cardiorespiratory dysfunction. Their hospital mortality was 60% (vs 4%, p < 0.001). Univariate analysis revealed that preoperative respiratory muscle dysfunction, characterized by maximal inspiratory and expiratory pressure below 70% of the predicted values combined with respiratory rate above 15 rpm during ventilometry, was associated with postoperative PIMV (p = 0.030, odds ratio: 50, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2-18). Postoperative PIMV was also associated with: (1) body mass index (BMI) < 18.5 (odds ratio: 7.2, 95% CI: 1.5-32), (2) body weight < 50 kg (odds ratio: 6.5, 95% CI: 1.6-25), (3) valve operation due to acute endocarditis (odds ratio: 5.5, 95% CI: 0.98-30), and (4) concomitant operation for mitral and tricuspid valve dysfunction (p = 0.047, odds ratio: 5.0, 95% CI: 1.1-22). Conclusion: Our results have demonstrated that respiratory muscle dysfunction, among other clinical factors, is associated with the need for PIMV due to cardiovascular or pulmonary dysfunction after heart valve surgery. (C) 2010 European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Anti-mullerian hormone is the best predictor of poor response in ICSI cycles of patients with endometriosis

Purpose: To correlate ovarian reserve (OR) markers with response in assisted reproduction techniques (ART) and determine their ability to predict poor response among patients with endometriosis (EDT). Methods: We evaluated ART cycles of 27 women with EDT and 50 with exclusive male factor. Basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) and anti-mullerian hormone (AMH) levels were determined. Ovarian response to gonadotropin stimulation was assessed and correlation coefficients calculated between the variables and reserve markers. Areas under the curve (AUC) determined ability of tests to predict poor response. Results: AMH was significantly correlated with response in both groups and it was the only marker with significant discriminative capacity to predict poor response among EDT (AUC = 0.842; 95% CI: 0.651-0.952) and control group (AUC = 0.869; 95% CI: 0.743-0.947). Conclusion: Infertile patients with endometriosis can benefit from the pre-therapeutic assessment of OR markers. However, regardless of disease presence, only AMH predicts poor response to stimulus.

Oocyte diameter as a predictor of fertilization and embryo quality in assisted reproduction cycles

Objective: To assess the impact of the mean oocyte diameter (MOD) on occurrence of fertilization and embryo quality in assisted reproduction cycles. Design: Prospective observational study. Setting: Sector of Human Reproduction of the University Hospital, Faculty of Medicine of Ribeirao Preto, University of Sao Paulo (HCFMRP-USP). Patient(s): Thirty-five women undergoing intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) at the University Hospital of Ribeirao Preto from May to October 2007. Intervention(s): MOD assessment. Main Outcome Measure(s): Occurrence of fertilization and qualitative embryo classification on 2nd and 3rd day after ICSI. Result(s): We divided 160 metaphase II oocytes according to MOD into groups A (MOD below the 25th percentile), B (MOD between 25th and 75th percentile), and C (MOD above the 75th percentile). There was no statistically significant association between MOD and the occurrence of fertilization or the qualitative embryo classification on days 2 and 3. There was no statistically significant difference between groups regarding number of cells or the qualitative embryo classification on days 2 and 3. Conclusion(s): The MOD of mature oocytes does not seem to be related to the occurrence of fertilization or to the developmental quality of human embryos on days 2 and 3 after ICSI. (Fertil Steril(R) 2010;93:621-5. (C)2010 by American Society for Reproductive Medicine.)

Magnetization transfer ratio as a predictor of malignancy in breast lesions: Preliminary results

MRI is an important tool for investigating breast cancer. Although recognized as the method of choice for screening highrisk patients, and for other indications the role of MRI for lesion characterization remains controversial. Recently some authors have advocated the use of morphologic and postcontrast features for this purpose. Quantitative breast MRI techniques have not been applied extensively in breast diseases. Magnetization transfer (MT) is a quantitative MR technique commonly used to investigate neurological diseases. In breast diseases the use of MT has been limited to improving visualization of areas of enhancement in postcontrast images. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the feasibility and utility of MT in discriminating benign from malignant breast lesions. Fifty-two lesions, Bl-RADS 4 and 5, from 49 patients, were prospectively evaluated using the MT ratio (MTR). Patients were divided into two groups: benign and malignant lesions. The MTR of fat, pectoralis major muscle, fibroglandular tissue, and breast lesions were calculated. A statistically significant difference was found between MTR from benign and malignant lesions (P < 0.001). Preliminary results suggest that MT can be used to evaluate breast lesions. Further studies are necessary to better define the utility and applicability of this technique.