Comparison between detailed model simulation and artificial neural network for forecasting building energy consumption

There are several ways to attempt to model a building and its heat gains from external sources as well as internal ones in order to evaluate a proper operation, audit retrofit actions, and forecast energy consumption. Different techniques, varying from simple regression to models that are based on physical principles, can be used for simulation. A frequent hypothesis for all these models is that the input variables should be based on realistic data when they are available, otherwise the evaluation of energy consumption might be highly under or over estimated. In this paper, a comparison is made between a simple model based on artificial neural network (ANN) and a model that is based on physical principles (EnergyPlus) as an auditing and predicting tool in order to forecast building energy consumption. The Administration Building of the University of Sao Paulo is used as a case study. The building energy consumption profiles are collected as well as the campus meteorological data. Results show that both models are suitable for energy consumption forecast. Additionally, a parametric analysis is carried out for the considered building on EnergyPlus in order to evaluate the influence of several parameters such as the building profile occupation and weather data on such forecasting. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Neural network model for designing automotive devices using SMD LED

The advantages offered by the electronic component LED (Light Emitting Diode) have resulted in a quick and extensive application of this device in the replacement of incandescent lights. In this combined application, however, the relationship between the design variables and the desired effect or result is very complex and renders it difficult to model using conventional techniques. This paper consists of the development of a technique using artificial neural networks that makes it possible to obtain the luminous intensity values of brake lights using SMD (Surface Mounted Device) LEDs from design data. This technique can be utilized to design any automotive device that uses groups of SMD LEDs. The results of industrial applications using SMD LED are presented to validate the proposed technique.

Expectation Propagation with Factorizing Distributions: A Gaussian Approximation and Performance Results for Simple Models

We discuss the expectation propagation (EP) algorithm for approximate Bayesian inference using a factorizing posterior approximation. For neural network models, we use a central limit theorem argument to make EP tractable when the number of parameters is large. For two types of models, we show that EP can achieve optimal generalization performance when data are drawn from a simple distribution.

Neural network-based H(infinity) control for fully actuated and underactuated cooperative manipulators

This paper develops H(infinity) control designs based on neural networks for fully actuated and underactuated cooperative manipulators. The neural networks proposed in this paper only adapt the uncertain dynamics of the robot manipulators. They work as a complement of the nominal model. The H(infinity) performance index includes the position errors as well the squeeze force errors between the manipulator end-effectors and the object, which represents a complete disturbance rejection scenario. For the underactuated case, the squeeze force control problem is more difficult to solve due to the loss of some degrees of manipulator actuation. Results obtained from an actual cooperative manipulator, which is able to work as a fully actuated and an underactuated manipulator, are presented. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Treatment of Aqueous Effluents Containing Phenol by the O(3), O(3)-UV, and O(3)-H(2)O(2) Processes: Experimental Study and Neural Network Modeling

In this work, the oxidation of the model pollutant phenol has been studied by means of the O(3), O(3)-UV, and O(3)-H(2)O(2) processes. Experiments were carried out in a fed-batch system to investigate the effects of initial dissolved organic carbon concentration, initial, ozone concentration in the gas phase, the presence or absence of UVC radiation, and initial hydrogen peroxide concentration. Experimental results were used in the modeling of the degradation processes by neural networks in order to simulate DOC-time profiles and evaluate the relative importance of process variables.

Regression models for grouped survival data: Estimation and sensitivity analysis

In this study, regression models are evaluated for grouped survival data when the effect of censoring time is considered in the model and the regression structure is modeled through four link functions. The methodology for grouped survival data is based on life tables, and the times are grouped in k intervals so that ties are eliminated. Thus, the data modeling is performed by considering the discrete models of lifetime regression. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood and jackknife methods. To detect influential observations in the proposed models, diagnostic measures based on case deletion, which are denominated global influence, and influence measures based on small perturbations in the data or in the model, referred to as local influence, are used. In addition to those measures, the local influence and the total influential estimate are also employed. Various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the four link functions of the regression models for grouped survival data for different parameter settings, sample sizes and numbers of intervals. Finally, a data set is analyzed by using the proposed regression models. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Image indexing and retrieval using an ART-2A neural network architecture

Traditional content-based image retrieval (CBIR) systems use low-level features such as colors, shapes, and textures of images. Although, users make queries based on semantics, which are not easily related to such low-level characteristics. Recent works on CBIR confirm that researchers have been trying to map visual low-level characteristics and high-level semantics. The relation between low-level characteristics and image textual information has motivated this article which proposes a model for automatic classification and categorization of words associated to images. This proposal considers a self-organizing neural network architecture, which classifies textual information without previous learning. Experimental results compare the performance results of the text-based approach to an image retrieval system based on low-level features. (c) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A neural networks study of quinone compounds with trypanocidal activity

This work investigates neural network models for predicting the trypanocidal activity of 28 quinone compounds. Artificial neural networks (ANN), such as multilayer perceptrons (MLP) and Kohonen models, were employed with the aim of modeling the nonlinear relationship between quantum and molecular descriptors and trypanocidal activity. The calculated descriptors and the principal components were used as input to train neural network models to verify the behavior of the nets. The best model for both network models (MLP and Kohonen) was obtained with four descriptors as input. The descriptors were T(5) (torsion angle), QTS1 (sum of absolute values of the atomic charges), VOLS2 (volume of the substituent at region B) and HOMO-1 (energy of the molecular orbital below HOMO). These descriptors provide information on the kind of interaction that occurs between the compounds and the biological receptor. Both neural network models used here can predict the trypanocidal activity of the quinone compounds with good agreement, with low errors in the testing set and a high correctness rate. Thanks to the nonlinear model obtained from the neural network models, we can conclude that electronic and structural properties are important factors in the interaction between quinone compounds that exhibit trypanocidal activity and their biological receptors. The final ANN models should be useful in the design of novel trypanocidal quinones having improved potency.

Artificial Neural Networks and the Study of the Psychoactivity of Cannabinoid Compounds

Cannabinoid compounds have widely been employed because of its medicinal and psychotropic properties. These compounds are isolated from Cannabis sativa (or marijuana) and are used in several medical treatments, such as glaucoma, nausea associated to chemotherapy, pain and many other situations. More recently, its use as appetite stimulant has been indicated in patients with cachexia or AIDS. In this work, the influence of several molecular descriptors on the psychoactivity of 50 cannabinoid compounds is analyzed aiming one obtain a model able to predict the psychoactivity of new cannabinoids. For this purpose, initially, the selection of descriptors was carried out using the Fisher`s weight, the correlation matrix among the calculated variables and principal component analysis. From these analyses, the following descriptors have been considered more relevant: E(LUMO) (energy of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital), Log P (logarithm of the partition coefficient), VC4 (volume of the substituent at the C4 position) and LP1 (Lovasz-Pelikan index, a molecular branching index). To follow, two neural network models were used to construct a more adequate model for classifying new cannabinoid compounds. The first model employed was multi-layer perceptrons, with algorithm back-propagation, and the second model used was the Kohonen network. The results obtained from both networks were compared and showed that both techniques presented a high percentage of correctness to discriminate psychoactive and psychoinactive compounds. However, the Kohonen network was superior to multi-layer perceptrons.

COM-Poisson cure rate survival models and an application to a cutaneous melanoma data

In this paper, we develop a flexible cure rate survival model by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest to follow the Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution. This model includes as special cases some of the well-known cure rate models discussed in the literature. Next, we discuss the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of this cure rate survival model. Finally, we illustrate the usefulness of this model by applying it to a real cutaneous melanoma data. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Artificial neural networks analysis of Sao Paulo subway tunnel settlement data

Artificial neural networks have been used to analyze a number of engineering problems, including settlement caused by different tunneling methods in various types of ground mass. This paper focuses on settlement over shotcrete- supported tunnels on Sao Paulo subway line 2 (West Extension) that were excavated in Tertiary sediments using the sequential excavation method. The adjusted network is a good tool for predicting settlement above new tunnels to be excavated in similar conditions. The influence of network training parameters on the quality of results is also discussed. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Destructive weighted Poisson cure rate models

In this paper, we develop a flexible cure rate survival model by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest to follow a compound weighted Poisson distribution. This model is more flexible in terms of dispersion than the promotion time cure model. Moreover, it gives an interesting and realistic interpretation of the biological mechanism of the occurrence of event of interest as it includes a destructive process of the initial risk factors in a competitive scenario. In other words, what is recorded is only from the undamaged portion of the original number of risk factors.

Neural networks and statistical analysis for classification of corneal videokeratography maps based on Zernike coefficients: a quantitative comparison

PURPOSE: The main goal of this study was to develop and compare two different techniques for classification of specific types of corneal shapes when Zernike coefficients are used as inputs. A feed-forward artificial Neural Network (NN) and discriminant analysis (DA) techniques were used. METHODS: The inputs both for the NN and DA were the first 15 standard Zernike coefficients for 80 previously classified corneal elevation data files from an Eyesys System 2000 Videokeratograph (VK), installed at the Departamento de Oftalmologia of the Escola Paulista de Medicina, São Paulo. The NN had 5 output neurons which were associated with 5 typical corneal shapes: keratoconus, with-the-rule astigmatism, against-the-rule astigmatism, "regular" or "normal" shape and post-PRK. RESULTS: The NN and DA responses were statistically analyzed in terms of precision ([true positive+true negative]/total number of cases). Mean overall results for all cases for the NN and DA techniques were, respectively, 94% and 84.8%. CONCLUSION: Although we used a relatively small database, results obtained in the present study indicate that Zernike polynomials as descriptors of corneal shape may be a reliable parameter as input data for diagnostic automation of VK maps, using either NN or DA.

Observational Characterization of the Downward Atmospheric Longwave Radiation at the Surface in the City of Sao Paulo

This work describes the seasonal and diurnal variations of downward longwave atmospheric irradiance (LW) at the surface in Sao Paulo, Brazil, using 5-min-averaged values of LW, air temperature, relative humidity, and solar radiation observed continuously and simultaneously from 1997 to 2006 on a micrometeorological platform, located at the top of a 4-story building. An objective procedure, including 2-step filtering and dome emission effect correction, was used to evaluate the quality of the 9-yr-long LW dataset. The comparison between LW values observed and yielded by the Surface Radiation Budget project shows spatial and temporal agreement, indicating that monthly and annual average values of LW observed in one point of Sao Paulo can be used as representative of the entire metropolitan region of Sao Paulo. The maximum monthly averaged value of the LW is observed during summer (389 +/- 14 W m(-2): January), and the minimum is observed during winter (332 +/- 12 W m(-2); July). The effective emissivity follows the LW and shows a maximum in summer (0.907 +/- 0.032; January) and a minimum in winter (0.818 +/- 0.029; June). The mean cloud effect, identified objectively by comparing the monthly averaged values of the LW during clear-sky days and all-sky conditions, intensified the monthly average LW by about 32.0 +/- 3.5 W m(-2) and the atmospheric effective emissivity by about 0.088 +/- 0.024. In August, the driest month of the year in Sao Paulo, the diurnal evolution of the LW shows a minimum (325 +/- 11 W m(-2)) at 0900 LT and a maximum (345 12 W m-2) at 1800 LT, which lags behind (by 4 h) the maximum diurnal variation of the screen temperature. The diurnal evolution of effective emissivity shows a minimum (0.781 +/- 0.027) during daytime and a maximum (0.842 +/- 0.030) during nighttime. The diurnal evolution of all-sky condition and clear-sky day differences in the effective emissivity remain relatively constant (7% +/- 1%), indicating that clouds do not change the emissivity diurnal pattern. The relationship between effective emissivity and screen air temperature and between effective emissivity and water vapor is complex. During the night, when the planetary boundary layer is shallower, the effective emissivity can be estimated by screen parameters. During the day, the relationship between effective emissivity and screen parameters varies from place to place and depends on the planetary boundary layer process. Because the empirical expressions do not contain enough information about the diurnal variation of the vertical stratification of air temperature and moisture in Sao Paulo, they are likely to fail in reproducing the diurnal variation of the surface emissivity. The most accurate way to estimate the LW for clear-sky conditions in Sao Paulo is to use an expression derived from a purely empirical approach.

Kernel machines for epilepsy diagnosis via EEG signal classification: A comparative study

Objective: We carry out a systematic assessment on a suite of kernel-based learning machines while coping with the task of epilepsy diagnosis through automatic electroencephalogram (EEG) signal classification. Methods and materials: The kernel machines investigated include the standard support vector machine (SVM), the least squares SVM, the Lagrangian SVM, the smooth SVM, the proximal SVM, and the relevance vector machine. An extensive series of experiments was conducted on publicly available data, whose clinical EEG recordings were obtained from five normal subjects and five epileptic patients. The performance levels delivered by the different kernel machines are contrasted in terms of the criteria of predictive accuracy, sensitivity to the kernel function/parameter value, and sensitivity to the type of features extracted from the signal. For this purpose, 26 values for the kernel parameter (radius) of two well-known kernel functions (namely. Gaussian and exponential radial basis functions) were considered as well as 21 types of features extracted from the EEG signal, including statistical values derived from the discrete wavelet transform, Lyapunov exponents, and combinations thereof. Results: We first quantitatively assess the impact of the choice of the wavelet basis on the quality of the features extracted. Four wavelet basis functions were considered in this study. Then, we provide the average accuracy (i.e., cross-validation error) values delivered by 252 kernel machine configurations; in particular, 40%/35% of the best-calibrated models of the standard and least squares SVMs reached 100% accuracy rate for the two kernel functions considered. Moreover, we show the sensitivity profiles exhibited by a large sample of the configurations whereby one can visually inspect their levels of sensitiveness to the type of feature and to the kernel function/parameter value. Conclusions: Overall, the results evidence that all kernel machines are competitive in terms of accuracy, with the standard and least squares SVMs prevailing more consistently. Moreover, the choice of the kernel function and parameter value as well as the choice of the feature extractor are critical decisions to be taken, albeit the choice of the wavelet family seems not to be so relevant. Also, the statistical values calculated over the Lyapunov exponents were good sources of signal representation, but not as informative as their wavelet counterparts. Finally, a typical sensitivity profile has emerged among all types of machines, involving some regions of stability separated by zones of sharp variation, with some kernel parameter values clearly associated with better accuracy rates (zones of optimality). (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.