324 resultados para Model choice

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo (BDPI/USP)


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Phylogenetic analyses of chloroplast DNA sequences, morphology, and combined data have provided consistent support for many of the major branches within the angiosperm, clade Dipsacales. Here we use sequences from three mitochondrial loci to test the existing broad scale phylogeny and in an attempt to resolve several relationships that have remained uncertain. Parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian analyses of a combined mitochondrial data set recover trees broadly consistent with previous studies, although resolution and support are lower than in the largest chloroplast analyses. Combining chloroplast and mitochondrial data results in a generally well-resolved and very strongly supported topology but the previously recognized problem areas remain. To investigate why these relationships have been difficult to resolve we conducted a series of experiments using different data partitions and heterogeneous substitution models. Usually more complex modeling schemes are favored regardless of the partitions recognized but model choice had little effect on topology or support values. In contrast there are consistent but weakly supported differences in the topologies recovered from coding and non-coding matrices. These conflicts directly correspond to relationships that were poorly resolved in analyses of the full combined chloroplast-mitochondrial data set. We suggest incongruent signal has contributed to our inability to confidently resolve these problem areas. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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This work aims to compare different nonlinear functions for describing the growth curves of Nelore females. The growth curve parameters, their (co) variance components, and environmental and genetic effects were estimated jointly through a Bayesian hierarchical model. In the first stage of the hierarchy, 4 nonlinear functions were compared: Brody, Von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, and logistic. The analyses were carried out using 3 different data sets to check goodness of fit while having animals with few records. Three different assumptions about SD of fitting errors were considered: constancy throughout the trajectory, linear increasing until 3 yr of age and constancy thereafter, and variation following the nonlinear function applied in the first stage of the hierarchy. Comparisons of the overall goodness of fit were based on Akaike information criterion, the Bayesian information criterion, and the deviance information criterion. Goodness of fit at different points of the growth curve was compared applying the Gelfand`s check function. The posterior means of adult BW ranged from 531.78 to 586.89 kg. Greater estimates of adult BW were observed when the fitting error variance was considered constant along the trajectory. The models were not suitable to describe the SD of fitting errors at the beginning of the growth curve. All functions provided less accurate predictions at the beginning of growth, and predictions were more accurate after 48 mo of age. The prediction of adult BW using nonlinear functions can be accurate when growth curve parameters and their (co) variance components are estimated jointly. The hierarchical model used in the present study can be applied to the prediction of mature BW in herds in which a portion of the animals are culled before adult age. Gompertz, Von Bertalanffy, and Brody functions were adequate to establish mean growth patterns and to predict the adult BW of Nelore females. The Brody model was more accurate in predicting the birth weight of these animals and presented the best overall goodness of fit.

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OBJECTIVES: The complexity and heterogeneity of human bone, as well as ethical issues, frequently hinder the development of clinical trials. The purpose of this in vitro study was to determine the modulus of elasticity of a polyurethane isotropic experimental model via tension tests, comparing the results to those reported in the literature for mandibular bone, in order to validate the use of such a model in lieu of mandibular bone in biomechanical studies. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Forty-five polyurethane test specimens were divided into 3 groups of 15 specimens each, according to the ratio (A/B) of polyurethane reagents (PU-1: 1/0.5, PU-2: 1/1, PU-3: 1/1.5). RESULTS: Tension tests were performed in each experimental group and the modulus of elasticity values found were 192.98 MPa (SD=57.20) for PU-1, 347.90 MPa (SD=109.54) for PU-2 and 304.64 MPa (SD=25.48) for PU-3. CONCLUSION: The concentration of choice for building the experimental model was 1/1.

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Motivated by a recently proposed biologically inspired face recognition approach, we investigated the relation between human behavior and a computational model based on Fourier-Bessel (FB) spatial patterns. We measured human recognition performance of FB filtered face images using an 8-alternative forced-choice method. Test stimuli were generated by converting the images from the spatial to the FB domain, filtering the resulting coefficients with a band-pass filter, and finally taking the inverse FB transformation of the filtered coefficients. The performance of the computational models was tested using a simulation of the psychophysical experiment. In the FB model, face images were first filtered by simulated V1- type neurons and later analyzed globally for their content of FB components. In general, there was a higher human contrast sensitivity to radially than to angularly filtered images, but both functions peaked at the 11.3-16 frequency interval. The FB-based model presented similar behavior with regard to peak position and relative sensitivity, but had a wider frequency band width and a narrower response range. The response pattern of two alternative models, based on local FB analysis and on raw luminance, strongly diverged from the human behavior patterns. These results suggest that human performance can be constrained by the type of information conveyed by polar patterns, and consequently that humans might use FB-like spatial patterns in face processing.

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In the last decade the Sznajd model has been successfully employed in modeling some properties and scale features of both proportional and majority elections. We propose a version of the Sznajd model with a generalized bounded confidence rule-a rule that limits the convincing capability of agents and that is essential to allow coexistence of opinions in the stationary state. With an appropriate choice of parameters it can be reduced to previous models. We solved this model both in a mean-field approach (for an arbitrary number of opinions) and numerically in a Barabaacutesi-Albert network (for three and four opinions), studying the transient and the possible stationary states. We built the phase portrait for the special cases of three and four opinions, defining the attractors and their basins of attraction. Through this analysis, we were able to understand and explain discrepancies between mean-field and simulation results obtained in previous works for the usual Sznajd model with bounded confidence and three opinions. Both the dynamical system approach and our generalized bounded confidence rule are quite general and we think it can be useful to the understanding of other similar models.

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The Random Parameter model was proposed to explain the structure of the covariance matrix in problems where most, but not all, of the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix can be explained by Random Matrix Theory. In this article, we explore the scaling properties of the model, as observed in the multifractal structure of the simulated time series. We use the Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima technique to obtain the multifractal spectrum dependence with the parameters of the model. The model shows a scaling structure compatible with the stylized facts for a reasonable choice of the parameter values. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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In this paper, we study the effects of introducing contrarians in a model of Opinion Dynamics where the agents have internal continuous opinions, but exchange information only about a binary choice that is a function of their continuous opinion, the CODA model. We observe that the hung election scenario that arises when contrarians are introduced in discrete opinion models still happens. However, it is weaker and it should not be expected in every election. Finally, we also show that the introduction of contrarians make the tendency towards extremism of the original model weaker, indicating that the existence of agents that prefer to disagree might be an important aspect and help society to diminish extremist opinions.

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Using data from a logging experiment in the eastern Brazilian Amazon region, we develop a matrix growth and yield model that captures the dynamic effects of harvest system choice on forest structure and composition. Multinomial logistic regression is used to estimate the growth transition parameters for a 10-year time step, while a Poisson regression model is used to estimate recruitment parameters. The model is designed to be easily integrated with an economic model of decisionmaking to perform tropical forest policy analysis. The model is used to compare the long-run structure and composition of a stand arising from the choice of implementing either conventional logging techniques or more carefully planned and executed reduced-impact logging (RIL) techniques, contrasted against a baseline projection of an unlogged forest. Results from log and leave scenarios show that a stand logged according to Brazilian management requirements will require well over 120 years to recover its initial commercial volume, regardless of logging technique employed. Implementing RIL, however, accelerates this recovery. Scenarios imposing a 40-year cutting cycle raise the possibility of sustainable harvest volumes, although at significantly lower levels than is implied by current regulations. Meeting current Brazilian forest policy goals may require an increase in the planned total area of permanent production forest or the widespread adoption of silvicultural practices that increase stand recovery and volume accumulation rates after RIL harvests. Published by Elsevier B.V.

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Conventional karyotyping detects anomalies in 3-15% of patients with multiple congenital anomalies and mental retardation (MCA/MR). Whole-genome array screening (WGAS) has been consistently suggested as the first choice diagnostic test for this group of patients, but it is very costly for large-scale use in developing countries. We evaluated the use of a combination of Multiplex Ligation-dependent Probe Amplification (MLPA) kits to increase the detection rate of chromosomal abnormalities in MCA/MR patients. We screened 261 MCA/MR patients with two subtelomeric and one microdeletion kits. This would theoretically detect up to 70% of all submicroscopic abnormalities. Additionally we scored the de Vries score for 209 patients in an effort to find a suitable cut-off for MLPA screening. Our results reveal that chromosomal abnormalities were present in 87 (33.3%) patients, but only 57 (21.8%) were considered causative. Karyotyping detected 15 abnormalities (6.9%), while MLPA identified 54 (20.7%). Our combined MLPA screening raised the total detection number of pathogenic imbalances more than three times when compared to conventional karyotyping. We also show that using the de Vries score as a cutoff for this screening would only be suitable under financial restrictions. A decision analytic model was constructed with three possible strategies: karyotype, karyotype + MLPA and karyotype + WGAS. Karyotype + MLPA strategy detected anomalies in 19.8% of cases which account for 76.45% of the expected yield for karyotype + WGAS. Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) of MLPA is three times lower than that of WGAS, which means that, for the same costs, we have three additional diagnoses with MLPA but only one with WGAS. We list all causative alterations found, including rare findings, such as reciprocal duplications of regions deleted in Sotos and Williams-Beuren syndromes. We also describe imbalances that were considered polymorphisms or rare variants, such as the new SNP that confounded the analysis of the 22q13.3 deletion syndrome. (C) 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

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In this article, we present the EM-algorithm for performing maximum likelihood estimation of an asymmetric linear calibration model with the assumption of skew-normally distributed error. A simulation study is conducted for evaluating the performance of the calibration estimator with interpolation and extrapolation situations. As one application in a real data set, we fitted the model studied in a dimensional measurement method used for calculating the testicular volume through a caliper and its calibration by using ultrasonography as the standard method. By applying this methodology, we do not need to transform the variables to have symmetrical errors. Another interesting aspect of the approach is that the developed transformation to make the information matrix nonsingular, when the skewness parameter is near zero, leaves the parameter of interest unchanged. Model fitting is implemented and the best choice between the usual calibration model and the model proposed in this article was evaluated by developing the Akaike information criterion, Schwarz`s Bayesian information criterion and Hannan-Quinn criterion.

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We introduce a stochastic heterogeneous interacting-agent model for the short-time non-equilibrium evolution of excess demand and price in a stylized asset market. We consider a combination of social interaction within peer groups and individually heterogeneous fundamentalist trading decisions which take into account the market price and the perceived fundamental value of the asset. The resulting excess demand is coupled to the market price. Rigorous analysis reveals that this feedback may lead to price oscillations, a single bounce, or monotonic price behaviour. The model is a rare example of an analytically tractable interacting-agent model which allows LIS to deduce in detail the origin of these different collective patterns. For a natural choice of initial distribution, the results are independent of the graph structure that models the peer network of agents whose decisions influence each other. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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OBJECTIVES: The complexity and heterogeneity of human bone, as well as ethical issues, most always hinder the performance of clinical trials. Thus, in vitro studies become an important source of information for the understanding of biomechanical events on implant-supported prostheses, although study results cannot be considered reliable unless validation studies are conducted. The purpose of this work was to validate an artificial experimental model based on its modulus of elasticity, to simulate the performance of human bone in vivo in biomechanical studies of implant-supported prostheses. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In this study, fast-curing polyurethane (F16 polyurethane, Axson) was used to build 40 specimens that were divided into five groups. The following reagent ratios (part A/part B) were used: Group A (0.5/1.0), Group B (0.8/1.0), Group C (1.0/1.0), Group D (1.2/1.0), and Group E (1.5/1.0). A universal testing machine (Kratos model K - 2000 MP) was used to measure modulus of elasticity values by compression. RESULTS: Mean modulus of elasticity values were: Group A - 389.72 MPa, Group B - 529.19 MPa, Group C - 571.11 MPa, Group D - 470.35 MPa, Group E - 437.36 MPa. CONCLUSION: The best mechanical characteristics and modulus of elasticity value comparable to that of human trabecular bone were obtained when A/B ratio was 1:1.

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The objective of the present study was to determine whether lesion of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) promoted by N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) would rescue nigrostriatal dopaminergic neurons after unilateral 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA) injection into the medial forebrain bundle (MFB). Initially, 16 mg 6-OHDA (6-OHDA group) or vehicle (artificial cerebrospinal fluid - aCSF; Sham group) was infused into the right MFB of adult male Wistar rats. Fifteen days after surgery, the 6-OHDA and SHAM groups were randomly subdivided and received ipsilateral injection of either 60 mM NMDA or aCSF in the right STN. Additionally, a control group was not submitted to stereotaxic surgery. Five groups of rats were studied: 6-OHDA/NMDA, 6-OHDA/Sham, Sham/NMDA, Sham/Sham, and Control. Fourteen days after injection of 6-OHDA, rats were submitted to the rotational test induced by apomorphine (0.1 mg/kg, ip) and to the open-field test. The same tests were performed again 14 days after NMDA-induced lesion of the STN. The STN lesion reduced the contralateral turns induced by apomorphine and blocked the progression of motor impairment in the open-field test in 6-OHDA-treated rats. However, lesion of the STN did not prevent the reduction of striatal concentrations of dopamine and metabolites or the number of nigrostriatal dopaminergic neurons after 6-OHDA lesion. Therefore, STN lesion is able to reverse motor deficits after severe 6-OHDA-induced lesion of the nigrostriatal pathway, but does not protect or rescue dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars compacta.

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This study ascertained whether under dental erosion models that closely mimics the real-life situation enamel and root dentin from bovine origin would be reliable substitutes for human counterparts. Through a 2x2 crossover design, in a first trial, 14 volunteers wore a palatal device containing slabs of bovine and human enamel. Half of the participants ingested (4x daily, for 10 days) orange juice first, crossing over to mineral water, while the remainder received the reverse sequence. In a second trial, volunteers wore devices with slabs of bovine and human root dentin. Except for the duration of each intraoral phase, which lasted 2 rather 10 days, the experiment with root dentin run exactly as for enamel. Dental substrates were analyzed for surface microhardness. Two-way ANOVAs (α=0.05) indicated no difference between the microhardness values recorded for human and bovine enamel (p=0.1350), but bovine root dentin had lower microhardness compared to its human counterpart (p=0.0432). While bovine enamel can reliably substitute its human counterpart in in situ dental erosion models, bovine root dentin does not seem to be a viable alternative to the corresponding human tissue.

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PURPOSE: To develop an experimental surgical model in rats for the study of craniofacial abnormalities. METHODS: Full thickness calvarial defects with 10x10-mm and 5x8-mm dimensions were created in 40 male NIS Wistar rats, body weight ranging from 320 to 420 g. The animals were equally divided into two groups. The periosteum was removed and dura mater was left intact. Animals were killed at 8 and 16 weeks postoperatively and cranial tissue samples were taken from the defects for histological analysis. RESULTS: Cranial defects remained open even after 16 weeks postoperatively. CONCLUSION: The experimental model with 5x8-mm defects in the parietal region with the removal of the periosteum and maintenance of the integrity of the dura mater are critical and might be used for the study of cranial bone defects in craniofacial abnormalities.