Assessing influence in survival data with a cure fraction and covariates

Diagnostic methods have been an important tool in regression analysis to detect anomalies, such as departures from error assumptions and the presence of outliers and influential observations with the fitted models. Assuming censored data, we considered a classical analysis and Bayesian analysis assuming no informative priors for the parameters of the model with a cure fraction. A Bayesian approach was considered by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods with Metropolis-Hasting algorithms steps to obtain the posterior summaries of interest. Some influence methods, such as the local influence, total local influence of an individual, local influence on predictions and generalized leverage were derived, analyzed and discussed in survival data with a cure fraction and covariates. The relevance of the approach was illustrated with a real data set, where it is shown that, by removing the most influential observations, the decision about which model best fits the data is changed.

Bayesian analysis of skew-t multivariate null intercept measurement error model

The multivariate skew-t distribution (J Multivar Anal 79:93-113, 2001; J R Stat Soc, Ser B 65:367-389, 2003; Statistics 37:359-363, 2003) includes the Student t, skew-Cauchy and Cauchy distributions as special cases and the normal and skew-normal ones as limiting cases. In this paper, we explore the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to develop a Bayesian analysis of repeated measures, pretest/post-test data, under multivariate null intercept measurement error model (J Biopharm Stat 13(4):763-771, 2003) where the random errors and the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows a Student t and skew-t distribution, respectively. The results and methods are numerically illustrated with an example in the field of dentistry.

O rap, o hip-hop e o funk: a "eróptica" da arte juvenil invade a cena das escolas públicas nas metrópoles brasileiras

A irreverência e a criticidade de alguns rappers e o gingar alegre do corpo erótico proposto pelo funk sugerem um novo cenário para as metrópoles do país, em que a pluralidade da arte juvenil surge como forma de enfrentamento das marcas deixadas por fraturas sociais profundas. Os conceitos de "visão dionisíaca de mundo", "estética extrema" e "transvaloração dos valores", de Nietzsche, e o "erotismo", segundo Bataille, nortearam o método de ruptura de campo, concebido por Herrmann. Este, essencial para se repensar as noções de autoridade e tradição na sociedade contemporânea a partir das ideias veiculadas pelo rap e pelo funk. Consideramos que somente uma etnografia do olhar que apanhe a dimensão erótica e irreverente - a "eróptica", segundo Canevacci - destas manifestações poderia nelas identificar uma estética afirmativa e crítica, como diria Nietzsche, capaz de produzir uma verdadeira reversão dos valores em nossa sociedade e, no caso, no interior da própria escola.

Migração e referenciais identificatórios: linguagem e preconceito

A ausência de diálogos no mundo massificado impõe um discurso padronizado. Tenta-se eliminar as diferenças e os limites que estruturam as identidades são ameaçados. A violência desse mundo joga para a periferia grandes segmentos da população, condenados a viver em condições desumanas. Migrantes e imigrantes, desenraizados dos fundamentos de suas identidades, constituem parte expressiva dessa população. Grandes metrópoles, como São Paulo, são verdadeiros lócus do embate intercultural que os ameaça. Nossa discussão se apóia em trabalho de pesquisa anterior com crianças nordestinas em escolas paulistas - pudemos constatar o preconceito, a humilhação que atingem essa população. O ponto de partida para a humilhação é, quase sempre, sua linguagem regional, vista como errada e inadequada. A lingüística e a sociolingüística nos mostram o contrário. Entretanto, tudo que enraíza e fortalece a identidade é negado. A “barbárie civilizada” destrói desejo, sonhos, esperança, alteridade.

O desafio da descentralização do Sistema Único de Saúde em município de grande porte: o caso de São Paulo, Brasil

A descentralização do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) ainda enfrenta importantes desafios, em particular a busca de alternativas para grandes municípios. Por se caracterizar como um processo eminentemente político, variáveis político-institucionais, dentre as quais se destaca a capacidade de gestão do nível local, são determinantes para a conformação da descentralização em cada contexto. Utilizando o referencial do triângulo de governo para avaliar a capacidade de gestão, realizou-se um estudo de caso, com o objetivo de analisar o processo de descentralização do SUS no Município de São Paulo, Brasil, a maior metrópole brasileira. Pela análise de entrevistas com gestores selecionados e documentos da gestão, identificou-se um movimento de centralização da saúde na gestão municipal 2005-2008, acompanhado do desconcerto das estruturas locorregionais da Secretaria Municipal de Saúde, o que resultou no esvaziamento técnico e político dessas instâncias. Apesar dos limites da descentralização, destaca-se sua potência enquanto estratégia operacional para alcançar os objetivos do SUS. Aponta-se a necessidade de retomar o processo de descentralização da saúde no Município de São Paulo que, além de avançar para instâncias locorregionais, esteja articulado à descentralização da gestão pública municipal.

Sao Paulo: globalisation and metropolitan transition

The recent transformations taking place in the city of Sao Paulo show how the global urban dimension goes hand in hand with local deprivation and segregation. Both globalisation trends and segregation dynamics orientate a social and spatial process of change which has as the main result the dissolution of the urban condition in Sao Paulo. The metropolisation dynamics currently at work in South American cities can be understood, taking into consideration evidences and facts coming from the analysis of Sao Paulo, as a transition resulting from the globalisation process which takes place in contemporary cities.

A urbanização crítica na metrópole de São Paulo, a partir de fundamentos da geografia urbana

Over time the city has been involved in constant changes related with its diversity, processes and internal structure. As urban reality, the concepts of urban geography as a discipline shows a metamorphosis based on the agitation of urban reality. This investigation aims to update the geographical literature, without extreme simplifications and including as much perspectives as possible. Pierre George gives and extraordinary example about the extension of that knowledge, abruptly become obsolete.

Some questions about the Metropolitan Areas in Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo and Santiago regions

Among the numerous problems that are common to the Latin-American metropolises, such as the deep socio-spatial segregation, the impressive territorial fragmentation and the real estate valorisation that overvalues some territories, whilst it depreciates others, we have chosen to focus on the management of the metropolitan regions. That question clearly indicates that due to the great current changes of the economical restructuring - a process that strengthened the capitalist logic of social development - the traditional form of thinking urban planning has found its limits. Consequently, this issue of metropolitan management shows the need to look for new ways of metropolitan administration that can answer to the The main metropolitan regions of South America: Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo and Santiago form our references to characterize the recent changes from a territorial point of view on the one hand; and relative to the new determinations of the metropolis on the other hand. This leads us to discuss the challenges that metropolitan management face in a scenario of governability fragmentation.

Thermodynamic origin of cooperativity in actomyosin interactions: The coupling of short-range interactions with actin bending stiffness in an Ising-like model

We present Monte Carlo simulations for a molecular motor system found in virtually all eukaryotic cells, the acto-myosin motor system, composed of a group of organic macromolecules. Cell motors were mapped to an Ising-like model, where the interaction field is transmitted through a tropomyosin polymer chain. The presence of Ca(2+) induces tropomyosin to block or unblock binding sites of the myosin motor leading to its activation or deactivation. We used the Metropolis algorithm to find the transient and the equilibrium states of the acto-myosin system composed of solvent, actin, tropomyosin, troponin, Ca(2+), and myosin-S1 at a given temperature, including the spatial configuration of tropomyosin on the actin filament surface. Our model describes the short- and long-range cooperativity during actin-myosin binding which emerges from the bending stiffness of the tropomyosin complex. We found all transition rates between the states only using the interaction energy of the constituents. The agreement between our model and experimental data also supports the recent theory of flexible tropomyosin.

Street children and their relationship with the police

Background: This paper explores and analyses the experiences of school-age street children. It specifically addresses the relationship of the street children who live on the streets of Sao Paulo (a large Brazilian metropolis), in relation to their experiences, with the policemen. Methods: The paper is a secondary analysis of date previously collected in 1999. The data were collected through individual semi-structured interviews, with 14 school-age children frequenting two city public refuges, with their legal guardians` consent. The text from transcribed interviews was organized according to the validity norms of `thematic analysis`, a technique of contents analysis method. The decomposing and reconstructing process of that analysis gave rise to thematic categories (among which `the police category`) that represented the reconstruction of the difficulties faced by the children in their development. Results and discussion: The children portrayed the police as an enemy, a fearful figure and one of the most agonizing street experiences. Rarely did the police have a positive image to them. According to the children, police violence occurs in three forms: through systematic police persecution in an effort to remove the children from the streets against their will; actions that had the deliberate intent to humiliate them with verbal or physical aggression; and through alleged sexual abuse, revealed by the children in a veiled manner. The authority that is supposedly intended to protect them is portrayed as one of the most feared social agents. Conclusion: The reported hostile behaviour of the policemen shows the state of vulnerability of those children living on the street. This situation must be focused like a health problem because it causes injury to development of children. Nurses can help them through organizing assistance to children in situation of personal and social risk in the school nursing and health institution.

Tiering strategic environmental assessment and project environmental impact assessment in highway planning in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Constructing highways in dense urban areas is always a challenge. In Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region, heavy truck traffic contributes to clog streets and expressways alike. As part of the traffic neither originates nor head to the region, a peripheral highway has been proposed to reduce traffic problems. This project called Rodoanel, is an expressway approximately 175 km long. The fact that the projected south and north sections would cross catchments that supply most of the metropolis water demand was strongly disputed and made the environmental permitting process particularly difficult. The agency in charge commissioned a strategic environmental assessment (SEA) of a revamped project, and called it the Rodoanel Programme. However, the SEA report failed to satisfactorily take account of significant strategic issues. Among these, the highway potential effect of inducing urban sprawl over water protection zones is the most critical issue, as it emerged later as a hurdle to project licensing. Conclusion is that, particularly where no agreed-upon framework for SEA exists, when vertical tiering with downstream project EIA is sought, then a careful scoping of strategic issues is more than necessary. If an agreement on `what is strategic` is not reached and not recognized by influential stakeholders, then the unsettled conflicts will be transferred to project EIA. In such a context, SEA will have added another loop to the usually long road to project approval. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Wet deposition of major ions in a rural area impacted by biomass burning emissions

This work concerns the influence of industrialized agriculture in the tropics on precipitation chemistry. A total of 264 rain events were sampled using a wet-only collector in central Sao Paulo State, Brazil, between January 2003 and July 2007. Electroneutrality balance calculations (considering H(+), K(+), Na(+), NH(4)(+), Ca(2)(+), Mg(2)(+), Cl(-), NO(3)(-), SO(4)(2-), F(-), PO(4)(3-), H(3)CCOO(-), HCOO(-), C(2)O(4)(2-) and HCO(3)(-)) showed that there was an excess of cations (similar to 15%), which was attributed to the presence of unmeasured organic anion species originating from biomass burning and biogenic emissions. On average, the three ions NH(4)(+), NO(3)(-) and H(+) were responsible for >55% of the total ion concentrations in the rainwater samples. Concentrations (except of H(+)) were significantly higher (t-test; P = 0.05), by between two to six-fold depending on species, during the winter sugar cane harvest period, due to the practice of pre-harvest burning of the crop. Principal component analysis showed that three components could explain 88% of the variance for measurements made throughout the year: PC1 (52%, biomass burning and soil dust resuspension); PC2 (26%, secondary aerosols); PC3 (10%, road transport emissions). Differences between harvest and non-harvest periods appeared to be mainly due to an increased relative importance of road transport/industrial emissions during the summer (non-harvest) period. The volume-weighted mean (VWM) concentrations of ammonium (23.4 mu mol L(-1)) and nitrate (17.5 mu mol L(-1)) in rainwater samples collected during the harvest period were similar to those found in rainwater from Sao Paulo city, which emphasizes the importance of including rural agro-industrial emissions in regional-scale atmospheric chemistry and transport models. Since there was evidence of a biomass burning source throughout the year, it appears that rainwater composition will continue to be affected by vegetation fires, even after sugar cane burning is phased out as envisaged by recent Sao Paulo State legislation. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global and diffuse solar irradiances in urban and rural areas in southeast Brazil

The seasonal evolution of daily and hourly values of global and diffuse solar radiation at the surface are compared for the cities of Sao Paulo and Botucatu, both located in Southeast Brazil and representative of urban and rural areas, respectively. The comparisons are based on measurements of global and diffuse solar irradiance carried out at the surface during a six year simultaneous period in these two cities. Despite the similar latitude and altitude, the seasonal evolution of daily values indicate that Sao Paulo receives, during clear sky days, 7.8% less global irradiance in August and 5.1% less in June than Botucatu. On the other hand, Sao Paulo receives, during clear sky days, 3.6% more diffuse irradiance in August and 15.6% more in June than Botucatu. The seasonal variation of the diurnal cycle confirms these differences and indicates that they are more pronounced during the afternoon. The regional differences are related to the distance from the Atlantic Ocean, systematic penetration of the sea breeze and daytime evolution of the particulate matter in Sao Paulo. An important mechanism controlling the spatial distribution of solar radiation, on a regional scale, is the sea breeze penetration in Sao Paulo, bringing moisture and maritime aerosol that in turn further increases the solar radiation scattering due to pollution and further reduces the intensity of the direct component of solar radiation at the surface. Surprisingly, under clear sky conditions the atmospheric attenuation of solar radiation in Botucatu during winter - the biomass burning period due to the sugar cane harvest - is equivalent to that at Sao Paulo City, indicating that the contamination during sugar cane harvest in Southeast Brazil has a large impact in the solar radiation field at the surface.

Robust linear mixed models with skew-normal independent distributions from a Bayesian perspective

Linear mixed models were developed to handle clustered data and have been a topic of increasing interest in statistics for the past 50 years. Generally. the normality (or symmetry) of the random effects is a common assumption in linear mixed models but it may, sometimes, be unrealistic, obscuring important features of among-subjects variation. In this article, we utilize skew-normal/independent distributions as a tool for robust modeling of linear mixed models under a Bayesian paradigm. The skew-normal/independent distributions is an attractive class of asymmetric heavy-tailed distributions that includes the skew-normal distribution, skew-t, skew-slash and the skew-contaminated normal distributions as special cases, providing an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of symmetric distributions in this type of models. The methods developed are illustrated using a real data set from Framingham cholesterol study. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Extending the use of canonical and microcanonical Monte Carlo algorithms to spin models

We describe the canonical and microcanonical Monte Carlo algorithms for different systems that can be described by spin models. Sites of the lattice, chosen at random, interchange their spin values, provided they are different. The canonical ensemble is generated by performing exchanges according to the Metropolis prescription whereas in the microcanonical ensemble, exchanges are performed as long as the total energy remains constant. A systematic finite size analysis of intensive quantities and a comparison with results obtained from distinct ensembles are performed and the quality of results reveal that the present approach may be an useful tool for the study of phase transitions, specially first-order transitions. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.