Técnicas de diagnóstico de influência local na análise espacial da produtividade da soja

A modelagem da estrutura de dependência espacial pela abordagem da geoestatística é fundamental para a definição de parâmetros que definem esta estrutura, e que são utilizados na interpolação de valores em locais não amostrados pela técnica de krigagem. Entretanto, a estimação de parâmetros pode ser muito afetada pela presença de observações atípicas nos dados amostrados. O desenvolvimento deste trabalho teve por objetivo utilizar técnicas de diagnóstico de influência local em modelos espaciais lineares gaussianos, utilizados em geoestatística, para avaliar a sensibilidade dos estimadores de máxima verossimilhança e máxima verossimilhança restrita na presença de dados discrepantes. Estudos com dados experimentais mostraram que tanto a presença de valores atípicos como de valores considerados influentes, pela análise de diagnóstico, pode exercer forte influência nos mapas temáticos, alterando, assim, a estrutura de dependência espacial. As aplicações de técnicas de diagnóstico de influência local devem fazer parte de toda análise geoestatística a fim de garantir que as informações contidas nos mapas temáticos tenham maior qualidade e possam ser utilizadas com maior segurança pelo agricultor.

Untangling associations between chironomid taxa in Neotropical streams using local and landscape filters

1. Analyses of species association have major implications for selecting indicators for freshwater biomonitoring and conservation, because they allow for the elimination of redundant information and focus on taxa that can be easily handled and identified. These analyses are particularly relevant in the debate about using speciose groups (such as the Chironomidae) as indicators in the tropics, because they require difficult and time-consuming analysis, and their responses to environmental gradients, including anthropogenic stressors, are poorly known. 2. Our objective was to show whether chironomid assemblages in Neotropical streams include clear associations of taxa and, if so, how well these associations could be explained by a set of models containing information from different spatial scales. For this, we formulated a priori models that allowed for the influence of local, landscape and spatial factors on chironomid taxon associations (CTA). These models represented biological hypotheses capable of explaining associations between chironomid taxa. For instance, CTA could be best explained by local variables (e.g. pH, conductivity and water temperature) or by processes acting at wider landscape scales (e.g. percentage of forest cover). 3. Biological data were taken from 61 streams in Southeastern Brazil, 47 of which were in well-preserved regions, and 14 of which drained areas severely affected by anthropogenic activities. We adopted a model selection procedure using Akaike`s information criterion to determine the most parsimonious models for explaining CTA. 4. Applying Kendall`s coefficient of concordance, seven genera (Tanytarsus/Caladomyia, Ablabesmyia, Parametriocnemus, Pentaneura, Nanocladius, Polypedilum and Rheotanytarsus) were identified as associated taxa. The best-supported model explained 42.6% of the total variance in the abundance of associated taxa. This model combined local and landscape environmental filters and spatial variables (which were derived from eigenfunction analysis). However, the model with local filters and spatial variables also had a good chance of being selected as the best model. 5. Standardised partial regression coefficients of local and landscape filters, including spatial variables, derived from model averaging allowed an estimation of which variables were best correlated with the abundance of associated taxa. In general, the abundance of the associated genera tended to be lower in streams characterised by a high percentage of forest cover (landscape scale), lower proportion of muddy substrata and high values of pH and conductivity (local scale). 6. Overall, our main result adds to the increasing number of studies that have indicated the importance of local and landscape variables, as well as the spatial relationships among sampling sites, for explaining aquatic insect community patterns in streams. Furthermore, our findings open new possibilities for the elimination of redundant data in the assessment of anthropogenic impacts on tropical streams.

Inference From Aging Information

For many learning tasks the duration of the data collection can be greater than the time scale for changes of the underlying data distribution. The question we ask is how to include the information that data are aging. Ad hoc methods to achieve this include the use of validity windows that prevent the learning machine from making inferences based on old data. This introduces the problem of how to define the size of validity windows. In this brief, a new adaptive Bayesian inspired algorithm is presented for learning drifting concepts. It uses the analogy of validity windows in an adaptive Bayesian way to incorporate changes in the data distribution over time. We apply a theoretical approach based on information geometry to the classification problem and measure its performance in simulations. The uncertainty about the appropriate size of the memory windows is dealt with in a Bayesian manner by integrating over the distribution of the adaptive window size. Thus, the posterior distribution of the weights may develop algebraic tails. The learning algorithm results from tracking the mean and variance of the posterior distribution of the weights. It was found that the algebraic tails of this posterior distribution give the learning algorithm the ability to cope with an evolving environment by permitting the escape from local traps.

Inference and local influence assessment in skew-normal null intercept measurement error model

In this article, we discuss inferential aspects of the measurement error regression models with null intercepts when the unknown quantity x (latent variable) follows a skew normal distribution. We examine first the maximum-likelihood approach to estimation via the EM algorithm by exploring statistical properties of the model considered. Then, the marginal likelihood, the score function and the observed information matrix of the observed quantities are presented allowing direct inference implementation. In order to discuss some diagnostics techniques in this type of models, we derive the appropriate matrices to assessing the local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. The results and methods developed in this paper are illustrated considering part of a real data set used by Hadgu and Koch [1999, Application of generalized estimating equations to a dental randomized clinical trial. Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 9, 161-178].

DIAGNOSTIC TECHNIQUES OF LOCAL INFLUENCE IN SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF SOYBEAN YIELD

Modeling of spatial dependence structure, concerning geoestatistics approach, is an indispensable tool for fixing parameters that define this structure, applied on interpolation of values in places that are not sampled, by kriging techniques. However, the estimation of parameters can be greatly affected by the presence of atypical observations on sampled data. Thus, this trial aimed at using diagnostics techniques of local influence in spatial linear Gaussians models, applied at geoestatistics in order to evaluate sensitivity of maximum likelihood estimators and restrict maximum likelihood to small perturbations in these data. So, studies with simulated and experimental data were performed. Those results, obtained from the study of real data, allowed us to conclude that the presence of atypical values among the sampled data can have a strong influence on thematic maps, changing, therefore, the spatial dependence. The application of diagnostics techniques of local influence should be part of any geoestatistic analysis, ensuring that the information from thematic maps has better quality and can be used with greater security by farmers.

Características sociodemográficas da mortalidade por câncer de boca em Bauru, SP, no período de 1991 a 2001: uso de geoprocessamento

O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar as taxas de mortalidade por câncer de boca no período de 1991-2001, no município de Bauru-SP. A fonte de informação utilizada para o reconhecimento e seleção da população-alvo foram Certidões de Óbito dos Cartórios do município de Bauru com dados relativos ao período 1991-2001. Foram coletadas informações referentes a sexo, idade, localização da lesão e endereço. A coleta dos endereços visou à identificação no mapa do município de Bauru da localização geográfica do domicílio. Utilizando ferramentas do geoprocessamento, foi feita a inserção no mapa dos casos identificados. Foram registrados 67 casos de morte por câncer de boca na cidade de Bauru entre 1991 e 2001, com maiores taxas no sexo masculino e sexta década de vida. A análise da distribuição espacial mostra que a maioria dos casos encontra-se próxima à linha férrea que corta o município e foi responsável, em grande parte, pela ocupação territorial pela população, sendo esta também uma área que abrange os bairros mais antigos do município. O câncer de boca constitui importante causa de óbito no município, requerendo um planejamento de ações georreferenciadas pelo sistema local de saúde.

Diagnostic and clinical factors associated with pulpal and periapical pain

A retrospective survey was designed to identify diagnostic subgroups and clinical factors associated with odontogenic pain and discomfort in dental urgency patients. A consecutive sample of 1,765 patients seeking treatment for dental pain at the Urgency Service of the Dental School of the Federal University of Goiás, Brazil, was selected. Inclusion criteria were pulpal or periapical pain that occurred before dental treatment (minimum 6 months after the last dental appointment), and the exclusion criteria were teeth with odontogenic developmental anomalies and missing information or incomplete records. Clinical and radiographic examinations were performed to assess clinical presentation of pain complaints including origin, duration, frequency and location of pain, palpation, percussion and vitality tests, radiographic features, endodontic diagnosis and characteristics of teeth. Chi-square test and multiple logistic regression were used to analyze association between pulpal and periapical pain and independent variables. The most frequent endodontic diagnosis of pulpal pain were symptomatic pulpitis (28.3%) and hyperreactive pulpalgia (14.4%), and the most frequent periapical pain was symptomatic apical periodontitis of infectious origin (26.4%). Regression analysis revealed that closed pulp chamber and caries were highly associated with pulpal pain and, conversely, open pulp chamber was associated with periapical pain (p<0.001). Endodontic diagnosis and local factors associated with pulpal and periapical pain suggest that the important clinical factor of pulpal pain was closed pulp chamber and caries, and of periapical pain was open pulp chamber.

Nuclear and mitochondrial DNA markers in traceability of retail beef samples

Several characteristics are important in a traceability system of animal products, such as age at slaughter, breed composition, besides information of the productive chain. In general, the certification agent records information about the animals and the system which it came from, although cannot guarantee that the slaughtering, meat processing and distribution are error proof. Besides, there is a differential price, at least at the international market, based on sex and breed composition of the animals. Genetic markers allow identification of characteristics controlled in the beef cattle traceability program, as sex and breed composition, in order to correctly identify and appraise the final product for the consumer. The hypothesis of this study was that the majority beef samples retailed in the local market originate from female with a great participation of zebu breeds. Therefore, the objective of this work was to characterize retail beef samples with DNA markers that identify cattle sex and breed composition. Within 10 beef shops localized in Pirassununga, SP, Brazil, 61 samples were collected, all were genotyped as harboring Bos taurus mitochondrial DNA and 18 were positive for the Y chromosome amplification (male). For the marker sat1711b-Msp I the frequency of the allele A was 0.278 and for the marker Lhr-Hha I the frequency of the allele T was 0.417. The results of sat1711b-Msp I and Lhr-Hha I allelic frequencies are suggestive that the proportion of indicus genome compared with the taurine genome in the market meat is smaller than the observed in the Nellore breed. The procedure described in this study identified sex and subspecies characteristics of beef meat samples, with potential application in meat products certification in special as an auxiliary tool in beef cattle traceability programs.

Influência do transporte e mudança de local de manejo nas variáveis fisiológicas e produtivas de cabras Alpinas

Estudaram-se o efeito do transporte e a mudança de local de manejo sobre a produção e a composição do leite e sobre as variáveis fisiológicas, utilizando-se 12 cabras da raça Alpina em final de lactação. Semanalmente, foram mensuradas a produção e composição do leite e a contagem de células somáticas, além do volume do leite residual após administração de ocitocina. Foram colhidas amostras de sangue para dosagem hormonal (cortisol) e enzimática (glicose) no plasma no dia do transporte: antes (7h10min) e após (8h20min, 8h30min e 10h30min) o transporte. Nas três semanas subsequentes ao transporte, também foram colhidas amostras de sangue às 8h20min. Obtiveram-se teores mais elevados (P<0,05) de cortisol e glicose após o transporte e a mudança de local de manejo, e menor produção de leite (P<0,05) um dia após o evento. Porcentagem de gordura (P<0,05) e contagem de células somáticas apresentaram diferenças significativas (P<0,05) após o transporte. Os resultados permitem concluir que o transporte é um agente estressor que pode, momentaneamente, influenciar a produção animal.

Inbreeding levels in Northeast Brazil: strategies for the prospecting of new genetic disorders

A new autosomal recessive genetic condition, the SPOAN syndrome (an acronym for spastic paraplegia, optic atrophy and neuropathy syndrome), was recently discovered in an isolated region of the State of Rio Grande do Norte in Northeast Brazil, in a population that was identified by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) as belonging to the Brazilian communities with the highest rates of "deficiencies" (Neri, 2003), a term used to describe diseases, malformations, and handicaps in general. This prompted us to conduct a study of consanguinity levels in five of its municipal districts by directly interviewing their inhabitants. Information on 7,639 couples (corresponding to about 40% of the whole population of the studied districts) was obtained. The research disclosed the existence of very high frequencies of consanguineous marriages, which varied from about 9% to 32%, suggesting the presence of a direct association between genetic diseases such as the SPOAN syndrome, genetic drift and inbreeding levels. This fact calls for the introduction of educational programs for the local populations, as well as for further studies aiming to identify and characterize other genetic conditions. Epidemiological strategies developed to collect inbreeding data, with the collaboration of health systems available in the region, might be very successful in the prospecting of genetic disorders.

Notas sobre o antigo povoamento indígena do alto Trombetas e Mapuera

A 'Relação' de 1728 de frei Francisco de São Manços, com a narrativa da primeira exploração da bacia Trombetas-Mapuera, no noroeste do Estado do Pará, embora publicada há mais de cem anos, é aqui, pela primeira vez, objeto de análise e de interpretação geográfica e etno-histórica. A importância do documento está em nomear e em localizar com aproximação cerca de 50 'nações' indígenas, quase todas ignoradas pelas fontes históricas e etnográficas posteriores, além de mencionar muitas de suas aldeias e de seus chefes. A reconstituição do itinerário permitiu concluir que a viagem do 'descobridor do Trombetas' transcorreu, na verdade, em grande parte, pelo Mapuera, seu afluente, até o planalto das Guianas. A informação etnográfica, embora limitada, inclui referências a dois níveis de chefia política e à guerra como meio de obter escravos destinados ao escambo por mercadorias.

Emprego de regras de associação para extração de padrões mercadológicos de touros Nelore com avaliação genética

Objetivou-se com este trabalho utilizar regras de associação para identificar forças de mercado que regem a comercialização de touros com avaliação genética pelo programa Nelore Brasil. Essas regras permitem evidenciar padrões implícitos nas transações de grandes bases de dados, indicando causas e efeitos determinantes da oferta e comercialização de touros. Na análise foram considerados 19.736 registros de touros comercializados, 17 fazendas e 15 atributos referentes às diferenças esperadas nas progênies dos reprodutores, local e época da venda. Utilizou-se um sistema com interface gráfica usuário-dirigido que permite geração e seleção interativa de regras de associação. Análise de Pareto foi aplicada para as três medidas objetivas (suporte, confiança e lift) que acompanham cada uma das regras de associação, para validação das mesmas. Foram geradas 2.667 regras de associação, 164 consideradas úteis pelo usuário e 107 válidas para lift ≥ 1,0505. As fazendas participantes do programa Nelore Brasil apresentam especializações na oferta de touros, segundo características para habilidade materna, ganho de peso, fertilidade, precocidade sexual, longevidade, rendimento e terminação de carcaça. Os perfis genéticos dos touros são diferentes para as variedades padrão e mocho. Algumas regiões brasileiras são nichos de mercado para touros sem registro genealógico. A análise de evolução de mercado sugere que o mérito genético total, índice oficial do programa Nelore Brasil, tornou-se um importante índice para comercialização dos touros. Com o uso das regras de associação, foi possível descobrir forças do mercado e identificar combinações de atributos genéticos, geográficos e temporais que determinam a comercialização de touros no programa Nelore Brasil.

Keratoconus prediction using a finite element model of the cornea with local biomechanical properties

PURPOSE: The ability to predict and understand which biomechanical properties of the cornea are responsible for the stability or progression of keratoconus may be an important clinical and surgical tool for the eye-care professional. We have developed a finite element model of the cornea, that tries to predicts keratoconus-like behavior and its evolution based on material properties of the corneal tissue. METHODS: Corneal material properties were modeled using bibliographic data and corneal topography was based on literature values from a schematic eye model. Commercial software was used to simulate mechanical and surface properties when the cornea was subject to different local parameters, such as elasticity. RESULTS: The simulation has shown that, depending on the corneal initial surface shape, changes in local material properties and also different intraocular pressures values induce a localized protuberance and increase in curvature when compared to the remaining portion of the cornea. CONCLUSIONS: This technique provides a quantitative and accurate approach to the problem of understanding the biomechanical nature of keratoconus. The implemented model has shown that changes in local material properties of the cornea and intraocular pressure are intrinsically related to keratoconus pathology and its shape/curvature.

STM probing of local oscillations of the Fano-Kondo effect: a Doniach-Sunjic approach for the Kondo peak

The use of the scanning tunneling microscope (STM) for the investigation of Kondo adatoms on normal metallic surfaces reveals a Fano-Kondo behavior of the conductance as a function of the tip bias. In this work, the Doniach-Sunjic expression is used to describe the Kondo peak and we analyze the effect of a complex Fano phase, arising from an external magnetic field, on the conductance pattern. It is demonstrated that such phase generates local oscillations of the Fano-Kondo line shape and can lead to the suppression of anti-resonances.

A novel polar-based human face recognition computational model

Motivated by a recently proposed biologically inspired face recognition approach, we investigated the relation between human behavior and a computational model based on Fourier-Bessel (FB) spatial patterns. We measured human recognition performance of FB filtered face images using an 8-alternative forced-choice method. Test stimuli were generated by converting the images from the spatial to the FB domain, filtering the resulting coefficients with a band-pass filter, and finally taking the inverse FB transformation of the filtered coefficients. The performance of the computational models was tested using a simulation of the psychophysical experiment. In the FB model, face images were first filtered by simulated V1- type neurons and later analyzed globally for their content of FB components. In general, there was a higher human contrast sensitivity to radially than to angularly filtered images, but both functions peaked at the 11.3-16 frequency interval. The FB-based model presented similar behavior with regard to peak position and relative sensitivity, but had a wider frequency band width and a narrower response range. The response pattern of two alternative models, based on local FB analysis and on raw luminance, strongly diverged from the human behavior patterns. These results suggest that human performance can be constrained by the type of information conveyed by polar patterns, and consequently that humans might use FB-like spatial patterns in face processing.