Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Práticas preventivas de detecção de câncer em mulheres: comparação das estimativas dos inquéritos de saúde (ISA - Capital) e vigilância de fatores de risco e proteção para doenças crônicas por inquérito telefônico (VIGITEL - São Paulo)

OBJETIVO: O objetivo deste estudo foi comparar estimativas obtidas em inquéritos domiciliar e telefônico, da realização dos exames de Papanicolaou e mamografia em mulheres residentes no município de São Paulo em 2008, segundo características sociodemográficas, bem como dimensionar as diferenças observadas. MÉTODOS: Foram utilizados os dados do ISA - Capital 2008, inquérito domiciliar realizado no município de São Paulo pela Universidade de São Paulo (USP), Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) e Secretaria de Estado da Saúde com apoio da Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de São Paulo, e do VIGITEL - São Paulo, inquérito telefônico realizado pelo Ministério da Saúde para Vigilância de Fatores de Risco e Proteção para Doenças Crônicas. Estimativas da realização do exame de Papanicolaou e mamografia na vida, bem como a realização no último ano foram comparadas segundo o tipo de inquérito (domiciliar/telefone) por meio de regressão de Poisson ajustada por idade e escolaridade. RESULTADOS: Não foram encontradas diferenças estatisticamente significantes entre as estimativas obtidas pelo VIGITEL e ISA - Capital para as prevalências de realização de mamografia no último ano. No entanto, para as estimativas globais de realização do exame de Papanicolaou alguma vez na vida e no último ano e da mamografia na vida, foi possível verificar diferenças estatisticamente significantes, com prevalências de cobertura superiores entre as entrevistadas pelo inquérito telefônico. CONCLUSÃO: Os resultados sinalizam a tendência de superestimação de alguns indicadores de cobertura de mamografia e de exame de Papanicolaou nos dados de pesquisa via telefone, apontando a necessidade de novos estudos que também contribuam para o melhor entendimento das diferenças observadas com o uso de diferentes modalidades de inquéritos.

Highlights from the I international symposium of thrombosis and anticoagulation in internal medicine, October 23–25, 2008, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Abstract The importance of thrombosis and anticoagulation in clinical practice is rooted firmly in several fundamental constructs that can be applied both broadly and globally. Awareness and the appropriate use of anticoagulant therapy remain the keys to prevention and treatment. However, to assure maximal efficacy and safety, the clinician must, according to the available evidence, choose the right drug, at the right dose, for the right patient, under the right indication, and for the right duration of time. The first International Symposium of Thrombosis and Anticoagulation in Internal Medicine was a scientific program developed by clinicians for clinicians. The primary objective of the meeting was to educate, motivate and inspire internists, cardiologists and hematologists by convening national and international visionaries, thought-leaders and dedicated clinician-scientists in Sao Paulo, Brazil. This article is a focused summary of the symposium proceedings

Students' collective knowledge construction in the virtual learning environment ""ToLigado - your school interactive newspaper""

Introduction. The ToLigado Project - Your School Interactive Newspaper is an interactive virtual learning environment conceived, developed, implemented and supported by researchers at the School of the Future Research Laboratory of the University of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Method. This virtual learning environment aims to motivate trans-disciplinary research among public school students and teachers in 2,931 schools equipped with Internet-access computer rooms. Within this virtual community, students produce collective multimedia research documents that are immediately published in the portal. The project also aims to increase students' autonomy for research, collaborative work and Web authorship. Main sections of the portal are presented and described. Results. Partial results of the first two years' implementation are presented and indicate a strong motivation among students to produce knowledge despite the fragile hardware and software infrastructure at the time. Discussion. In this new environment, students should be seen as 'knowledge architects' and teachers as facilitators, or 'curiosity managers'. The ToLigado portal may constitute a repository for future studies regarding student attitudes in virtual learning environments, students' behaviour as 'authors', Web authorship involving collective knowledge production, teachers' behaviour as facilitators, and virtual learning environments as digital repositories of students' knowledge construction and social capital in virtual learning communities.

The International LAM Registry: A Component of an Innovative Web-Based Clinician, Researcher, and Patient-Driven Rare Disease Research Platform

Background: A relative friability to capture a sufficiently large patient population in any one geographic location has traditionally limited research into rare diseases. Methods and Results: Clinicians interested in the rare disease lymphangioleiomyomatosis (LAM) have worked with the LAM Treatment Alliance, the MIT Media Lab, and Clozure Associates to cooperate in the design of a state-of-the-art data coordination platform that can be used for clinical trials and other research focused on the global LAM patient population. This platform is a component of a set of web-based resources, including a patient self-report data portal, aimed at accelerating research in rare diseases in a rigorous fashion. Conclusions: Collaboration between clinicians, researchers, advocacy groups, and patients can create essential community resource infrastructure to accelerate rare disease research. The International LAM Registry is an example of such an effort.

The International Collaboration on Air Pollution and Pregnancy Outcomes: Initial Results

BACKGROUND: The findings of prior studies of air pollution effects on adverse birth outcomes are difficult to synthesize because of differences in study design. OBJECTIVES: The International Collaboration on Air Pollution and Pregnancy Outcomes was formed to understand how differences in research methods contribute to variations in findings. We initiated a feasibility study to a) assess the ability of geographically diverse research groups to analyze their data sets using a common protocol and b) perform location-specific analyses of air pollution effects on birth weight using a standardized statistical approach. METHODS: Fourteen research groups from nine countries participated. We developed a protocol to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for the association between particulate matter <= 10 mu m in aerodynamic diameter (PM(10)) and low birth weight (LBW) among term births, adjusted first for socioeconomic status (SES) and second for additional location-specific variables. RESULTS: Among locations with data for the PM(10) analysis, ORs estimating the relative risk of term LBW associated with a 10-mu g/m(3) increase in average PM(10) concentration during pregnancy, adjusted for SES, ranged from 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.30-1.35] for the Netherlands to 1.15 (95% CI, 0.61-2.18) for Vancouver, with six research groups reporting statistically significant adverse associations. We found evidence of statistically significant heterogeneity in estimated effects among locations. CONCLUSIONS: Variability in PM(10)-LBW relationships among study locations remained despite use of a common statistical approach. A more detailed meta-analysis and use of more complex protocols for future analysis may uncover reasons for heterogeneity across locations. However, our findings confirm the potential for a diverse group of researchers to analyze their data in a standardized way to improve understanding of air pollution effects on birth outcomes.

A new indicator for international visibility: exploring Brazilian scientific community

Brazilian science has increased fast during the last decades. An example is the increasing in the country`s share in the world`s scientific publication within the main international databases. But what is the actual weight of international publications to the whole Brazilian productivity? In order to respond this question, we have elaborated a new indicator, the International Publication Ratio (IPR). The data source was Lattes Database, a database organized by one of the main Brazilian S&T funding agency, which encompasses publication data from 1997 to 2004 of about 51,000 Brazilian researchers. Influences of distinct parameters, such as sectors, fields, career age and gender, are analyzed. We hope the data presented may help S&T managers and other S&T interests to better understand the complexity under the concept scientific productivity, especially in peripheral countries in science, such as Brazil.

The impact of a 17-day training period for an international championship on mucosal immune parameters in top-level basketball players and staff members

This investigation examined the impact of a 17-d training period (that included basketball-specific training, sprints, intermittent running exercises, and weight training, prior to an international championship competition) on salivary immunoglobulin A (SIgA) levels in 10 subjects (athletes and staff members) from a national basketball team, as a biomarker for mucosal immune defence. Unstimulated saliva samples were collected at rest at the beginning of the preparation for the Pan American Games and 1 d before the first game. The recovery interval from the last bout of exercise was 4 h. The SIgA level was measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and expressed as absolute concentrations, secretion rate, and SIgA level relative to total protein. The decrease in SIgA levels following training was greater in athletes than in support staff; however, no significant differences between the two groups were detected. A decrease in SIgA level, regardless of the method used to express IgA results, was verified for athletes. Only one episode of upper respiratory tract illness symptoms was reported, and it was not associated with changes in SIgA levels. In summary, a situation of combined stress for an important championship was found to decrease the level of SIgA-mediated immune protection at the mucosal surface in team members, with greater changes observed in the athletes.

Understanding the strategies of late-movers in International Manufacturing

This paper analyzes the internationalization of new multinationals from emerging countries. It also focuses on Production`s role in firm internationalization, a subject seldom addressed because the discipline of International Manufacturing is still embryonic, while International Business tends to overlook production. The authors integrate International Business and International Manufacturing concepts and frameworks in order to analyze new multinationals from emerging countries, using the empirical evidence of a survey plus case studies of Brazilian multinationals for understanding late-movers` strategies and competences, with emphasis on production. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Country risk, national cultural differences between partners and survival of international joint ventures in Brazil

This article aims to identify the main and interaction effects of two country-level variables, namely national distance and country risk, on the survival of international joint ventures in emerging markets. Research hypotheses predicting the negative impact of national distance and country risk on survival of international joint ventures are formulated in this article. These research hypotheses are examined in a sample of 234 international joint ventures formed in Brazil between 1973 and 2004. These international joint ventures were subjected to an event history analysis over a period of time ranging from 1973 to 2006. The empirical results show that large national cultural differences between local and foreign partners increase the instability of international joint ventures, whereas the survival of these alliances does not seem to be affected either by the economic and political uncertainty of Brazil. Furthermore, the national distance between local and foreign partners has effects on survival that are variable according to the life cycle of international joint ventures. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hierarchical determinants of capital structure

We analyze the influence of time-, firm-, industry- and country-level determinants of capital structure. First, we apply hierarchical linear modeling in order to assess the relative importance of those levels. We find that time and firm levels explain 78% of firm leverage. Second, we include random intercepts and random coefficients in order to analyze the direct and indirect influences of firm/industry/country characteristics on firm leverage. We document several important indirect influences of variables at industry and country-levels on firm determinants of leverage, as well as several structural differences in the financial behavior between firms of developed and emerging countries. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Transfer and Reverse Transfer of Knowledge of International Acquisitions: the case of the acquisition of the Perez Companc by Petrobras in Argentina

The objective of this article was to analyze the processes of transfer and reverse trans fer of knowledge following. international acquisitions made by Brazilian multinational companies. Reverse transfer is understood,as the process of transferring knowledge from the acquired company to the acquirer. Therefore, a case study was conducted on the acquisition of the Perez Companc group by Petrobras in Argentina. The study is qualitative. Primary data were obtained and eight members of the international managing board of Petrobras were interviewed. After the first moment of integration, reported as conflictive, there was a better integration of the companies, mainly in the technical areas of, the oil and gas exploration activities. The size of Perez Companc, its aim (a company of energy, not only oil and gas company) and the length of time were critical factors for the transfer of best practices between the companies. The expatriation of the employees is seen as a key-tool, as well as the technical visits, for the transfer of knowledge.. An. additional contribution of the study was to present the results of the research on the process of transfer and reverse transfer of knowledge in Brazilian multinational companies, since most studies on the theme focus on the motivators and challenges concerning these processes.

Real exchange rate and elasticity of labour supply in a balance-of-payments-constrained macrodynamics

A macrodynamic model is proposed in which the real exchange rate and the elasticity of labour supply interact defining different trajectories of growth and income distribution in a developing economy. Growth depends on imports of capital goods which are paid with exports (there are no capital flows) and hence is constrained by equilibrium in current account. The role of the elasticity of labour supply is to prevent the real exchange rate from appreciating as the economy grows, thereby sustaining international competitiveness. The model allows for endogenous technological change and considers the impact of migration from the subsistence to the modern sector on the cumulative (Kaldor-Verdoorn) process of learning.