Reliability of orbital fits for resonant extrasolar planetary systems: the case of HD82943

We perform a statistical study of the process of orbital determination of the HD82943 extrasolar planetary system, using the current observational data set of N = 165 radial velocity (RV) measurements. Our aim is to analyse the dispersion of possible orbital fits leading to residuals compatible with the best solution, and to discuss the sensitivity of the results with respect to both the data set and the error distribution around the best fit. Although some orbital parameters (e.g. semimajor axis) appear well constrained, we show that the best fits for the HD82943 system are not robust, and at present it is not possible to estimate reliable solutions for these bodies. Finally, we discuss the possibility of a third planet, with a mass of 0.35M(Jup) and an orbital period of 900 d. Stability analysis and simulations of planetary migration indicate that such a hypothetical three-planet system could be locked in a double 2/1 mean-motion resonance, similar to the so-called Laplace resonance of the three inner Galilean satellites of Jupiter.

DETECTABILITY AND ERROR ESTIMATION IN ORBITAL FITS OF RESONANT EXTRASOLAR PLANETS

We estimate the conditions for detectability of two planets in a 2/1 mean-motion resonance from radial velocity data, as a function of their masses, number of observations and the signal-to-noise ratio. Even for a data set of the order of 100 observations and standard deviations of the order of a few meters per second, we find that Jovian-size resonant planets are difficult to detect if the masses of the planets differ by a factor larger than similar to 4. This is consistent with the present population of real exosystems in the 2/1 commensurability, most of which have resonant pairs with similar minimum masses, and could indicate that many other resonant systems exist, but are currently beyond the detectability limit. Furthermore, we analyze the error distribution in masses and orbital elements of orbital fits from synthetic data sets for resonant planets in the 2/1 commensurability. For various mass ratios and number of data points we find that the eccentricity of the outer planet is systematically overestimated, although the inner planet`s eccentricity suffers a much smaller effect. If the initial conditions correspond to small-amplitude oscillations around stable apsidal corotation resonances, the amplitudes estimated from the orbital fits are biased toward larger amplitudes, in accordance to results found in real resonant extrasolar systems.

Indoor and outdoor atmospheric fungal spores in the So Paulo metropolitan area (Brazil): species and numeric concentrations

The aim of this study was to estimate the indoor and outdoor concentrations of fungal spores in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo (MASP), collected at different sites in winter/spring and summer seasons. The techniques adopted included cultivation (samples collected with impactors) and microscopic enumeration (samples collected with impingers). The overall results showed total concentrations of fungal spores as high as 36,000 per cubic meter, with a large proportion of non culturable spores (around 91% of the total). Penicillium sp. and Aspergillus sp. were the dominant species both indoors and outdoors, in all seasons tested, occurring in more than 30% of homes at very high concentrations of culturable airborne fungi [colony forming units(CFU) m(-3)]. There was no significant difference between indoor and outdoor concentrations. The total fungal spore concentration found in winter was 19% higher than that in summer. Heat and humidity were the main factors affecting fungal growth; however, a non-linear response to these factors was found. Thus, temperatures below 16A degrees C and above 25A degrees C caused a reduction in the concentration (CFU m(-3)) of airborne fungi, which fits with MASP climatalogy. The same pattern was observed for humidity, although not as clearly as with temperature given the usual high relative humidity (above 70%) in the study area. These results are relevant for public health interventions that aim to reduce respiratory morbidity among susceptible populations.

Forest-obligate Sabethes mosquitoes suggest palaeoecological perturbations

The origin of tropical forest diversity has been hotly debated for decades. Although specific mechanisms vary, many such explanations propose some vicariance in the distribution of species during glacial cycles and several have been supported by genetic evidence in Neotropical taxa. However, no consensus exists with regard to the extent or time frame of the vicariance events. Here, we analyse the cytochrome oxidase II mitochondrial gene of 250 Sabethes albiprivus B mosquitoes sampled from western Sao Paulo in Brazil. There was very low population structuring among collection sites (Phi(ST) = 0.03, P = 0.04). Historic demographic analyses and the contemporary geographic distribution of genetic diversity suggest that the populations sampled are not at demographic equilibrium. Three distinct mitochondrial clades were observed in the samples, one of which differed significantly in its geographic distribution relative to the other two within a small sampling area (similar to 70 x 35 km). This fact, supported by the inability of maximum likelihood analyses to achieve adequate fits to simple models for the population demography of the species, suggests a more complex history, possibly involving disjunct forest refugia. This hypothesis is supported by a genetic signal of recent population growth, which is expected if population sizes of this forest-obligate insect increased during the forest expansions that followed glacial periods. Although a time frame cannot be reliably inferred for the vicariance event leading to the three genetic clades, molecular clock estimates place this at similar to 1 Myr before present.

Downward longwave radiation estimates for clear and all-sky conditions in the Sertozinho region of So Paulo, Brazil

The accurate estimate of the surface longwave fluxes contribution is important for the calculation of the surface radiation budget, which in turn controls all the components of the surface energy budget, such as evaporation and the sensible heat fluxes. This study evaluates the performance of the various downward longwave radiation parameterizations for clear and all-sky days applied to the Sertozinho region in So Paulo, Brazil. Equations have been adjusted to the observations of longwave radiation. The adjusted equations were evaluated for every hour throughout the day and the results showed good fits for most of the day, except near dawn and sunset, followed by nighttime. The seasonal variation was studied by comparing the dry period against the rainy period in the dataset. The least square linear regressions resulted in coefficients equal to the coefficients found for the complete period, both in the dry period and in the rainy period. It is expected that the best fit equation to the observed data for this site be used to produce estimates in other regions of the State of So Paulo, where such information is not available.

COMPARISONS OF THE INTERSTELLAR MAGNETIC FIELD DIRECTIONS OBTAINED FROM THE IBEX RIBBON AND INTERSTELLAR POLARIZATIONS

Variations in the spatial configuration of the interstellar magnetic field (ISMF) near the Sun can be constrained by comparing the ISMF direction at the heliosphere found from the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) spacecraft observations of a ""Ribbon"" of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs), with the ISMF direction derived from optical polarization data for stars within similar to 40 pc. Using interstellar polarization observations toward similar to 30 nearby stars within similar to 90 degrees of the heliosphere nose, we find that the best fits to the polarization position angles are obtained for a magnetic pole directed toward ecliptic coordinates of lambda, beta similar to 263 degrees, 37 degrees (or galactic coordinates of l, b similar to 38 degrees, 23 degrees), with uncertainties of +/- 35 degrees based on the broad minimum of the best fits and the range of data quality. This magnetic pole is 33 degrees from the magnetic pole that is defined by the center of the arc of the ENA Ribbon. The IBEX ENA ribbon is seen in sight lines that are perpendicular to the ISMF as it drapes over the heliosphere. The similarity of the polarization and Ribbon directions for the local ISMF suggests that the local field is coherent over scale sizes of tens of parsecs. The ISMF vector direction is nearly perpendicular to the flow of local interstellar material (ISM) through the local standard of rest, supporting a possible local ISM origin related to an evolved expanding magnetized shell. The local ISMF direction is found to have a curious geometry with respect to the cosmic microwave background dipole moment.

Discovery of two distinct red clumps in NGC 419: a rare snapshot of a cluster at the onset of degeneracy

Colour-magnitude diagrams (CMDs) of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) star cluster NGC 419, derived from Hubble Space Telescope (HST)/Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS) data, reveal a well-delineated secondary clump located below the classical compact red clump typical of intermediate-age populations. We demonstrate that this feature belongs to the cluster itself, rather than to the underlying SMC field. Then, we use synthetic CMDs to show that it corresponds very well to the secondary clump predicted to appear as a result of He-ignition in stars just massive enough to avoid e(-)-degeneracy settling in their H-exhausted cores. The main red clump instead is made of the slightly less massive stars which passed through e(-) degeneracy and ignited He at the tip of the red giant branch. In other words, NGC 419 is the rare snapshot of a cluster while undergoing the fast transition from classical to degenerate H-exhausted cores. At this particular moment of a cluster`s life, the colour distance between the main-sequence turn-off and the red clump(s) depends sensitively on the amount of convective core overshooting, Lambda(c). By coupling measurements of this colour separation with fits to the red clump morphology, we are able to estimate simultaneously the cluster mean age (1.35(-0.04)(+0.11) Gyr) and overshooting efficiency (Lambda(c) = 0.47(-0.04)(+0.14)). Therefore, clusters like NGC 419 may constitute important marks in the age scale of intermediate-age populations. After eye inspection of other CMDs derived from HST/ACS data, we suggest that the same secondary clump may also be present in the Large Magellanic Cloud clusters NGC 1751, 1783, 1806, 1846, 1852 and 1917.

Role of Surfactants in Carbon Nanotubes Density Gradient Separation

Several strategies aimed at sorting single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNT) by diameter and/or electronic structure have been developed in recent years. A nondestructive sorting method was recently proposed in which nanotube bundles are dispersed in water-surfactant solutions and submitted to ultracentrifugation in a density gradient. By this method, SWNTs of different diameters are distributed according to their densities along the centrifuge tube. A mixture of two anionic amphiphiles, namely sodium dodecylsulfate (SIDS) and sodium cholate (SC), presented the best performance in discriminating nanotubes by diameter. We present molecular dynamics studies of the water-surfactant-SWNT system. The simulations revealed one aspect of the discriminating power of surfactants: they can actually be attracted toward the interior of the nanotube cage. The binding energies of SDS and SC on the outer nanotube surface are very similar and depend weakly on diameter. The binding inside the tubes, on the contrary, is strongly diameter dependent: SDS fits best inside tubes with diameters ranging from 8 to 9 angstrom, while SC is best accommodated in larger tubes, with diameters in the range 10.5-12 angstrom. The dynamics at room temperature showed that, as the amphiphile moves to the hollow cage, water molecules are dragged together, thereby promoting the nanotube filling. The resulting densities of filled SWNT are in agreement with measured densities.

Isostructural M(RL)(2)(hfac)(2) complexes with RL=5-(4-[N-tert-butyl-N-aminoxyl]phenyl)pyrimidine

5-(4-(N-tert-Butyl-N-aminoxylphenyl)) pyrimidine (RL, 4PPN) forms crystallographically isostructural and isomorphic pseudo-octahedral M(RL)(2)(hfac)(2) complexes with M(hfac)(2), M = Zn, Cu, Ni, Co, and Mn. Multiple close contacts occur between sites of significant spin density of the organic radical units. Magnetic behavior of the Zn, Cu, Ni, Co complexes appears to involve multiple exchange pathways, with multiple close crystallographic contacts between sites that EPR (of 4PPN) indicates to have observable spin density. Powder EPR spectra at room temperature and low temperature are reported for each complex. Near room temperature, the magnetic moments of the complexes are roughly equal to those expected by a sum of non-interacting moments (two radicals plus ion). As temperature decreases, AFM exchange interactions become evident in all of the complexes. The closest fits to the magnetic data were found for a 1-D Heisenberg AFM chain model in the Zn(II) complex (J/k = (-)7 K), and for three-spin RL-M-RL exchange in the other complexes (J/k = (-)26 K, (-)3 K, (-) 6 K, for Cu(II), Ni(II), and Co(II) complexes, respectively). (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Proton-halo effects in the (8)B+(58)Ni reaction near the Coulomb barrier

Elastic scattering of (8)B and (7)Be on a (58)Ni target has been measured at energies near the Coulomb barrier. The total reaction cross sections were deduced from Optical-model fits to the experimental angular distributions. Comparison with other systems shows evidence for proton-halo effects on (8)B, as well as for neutron-halo on (6)He reactions. While the enhancement in the cross section observed for (8)B is explained in terms of projectile breakup, in the case of (6)He reactions, the particle transfer proces explains the observed enhancement.

Comparing diagnostic tests with missing data

When missing data occur in studies designed to compare the accuracy of diagnostic tests, a common, though naive, practice is to base the comparison of sensitivity, specificity, as well as of positive and negative predictive values on some subset of the data that fits into methods implemented in standard statistical packages. Such methods are usually valid only under the strong missing completely at random (MCAR) assumption and may generate biased and less precise estimates. We review some models that use the dependence structure of the completely observed cases to incorporate the information of the partially categorized observations into the analysis and show how they may be fitted via a two-stage hybrid process involving maximum likelihood in the first stage and weighted least squares in the second. We indicate how computational subroutines written in R may be used to fit the proposed models and illustrate the different analysis strategies with observational data collected to compare the accuracy of three distinct non-invasive diagnostic methods for endometriosis. The results indicate that even when the MCAR assumption is plausible, the naive partial analyses should be avoided.

A New Class of Non Negative Distributions Generated by Symmetric Distributions

In this article, we study a new class of non negative distributions generated by the symmetric distributions around zero. For the special case of the distribution generated using the normal distribution, properties like moments generating function, stochastic representation, reliability connections, and inference aspects using methods of moments and maximum likelihood are studied. Moreover, a real data set is analyzed, illustrating the fact that good fits can result.