A decision support system to facilitate management of patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding

Objective: To develop a model to predict the bleeding source and identify the cohort amongst patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) who require urgent intervention, including endoscopy. Patients with acute GIB, an unpredictable event, are most commonly evaluated and managed by non-gastroenterologists. Rapid and consistently reliable risk stratification of patients with acute GIB for urgent endoscopy may potentially improve outcomes amongst such patients by targeting scarce health-care resources to those who need it the most. Design and methods: Using ICD-9 codes for acute GIB, 189 patients with acute GIB and all. available data variables required to develop and test models were identified from a hospital medical records database. Data on 122 patients was utilized for development of the model and on 67 patients utilized to perform comparative analysis of the models. Clinical data such as presenting signs and symptoms, demographic data, presence of co-morbidities, laboratory data and corresponding endoscopic diagnosis and outcomes were collected. Clinical data and endoscopic diagnosis collected for each patient was utilized to retrospectively ascertain optimal management for each patient. Clinical presentations and corresponding treatment was utilized as training examples. Eight mathematical models including artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor, linear discriminant analysis (LDA), shrunken centroid (SC), random forest (RF), logistic regression, and boosting were trained and tested. The performance of these models was compared using standard statistical analysis and ROC curves. Results: Overall the random forest model best predicted the source, need for resuscitation, and disposition with accuracies of approximately 80% or higher (accuracy for endoscopy was greater than 75%). The area under ROC curve for RF was greater than 0.85, indicating excellent performance by the random forest model Conclusion: While most mathematical models are effective as a decision support system for evaluation and management of patients with acute GIB, in our testing, the RF model consistently demonstrated the best performance. Amongst patients presenting with acute GIB, mathematical models may facilitate the identification of the source of GIB, need for intervention and allow optimization of care and healthcare resource allocation; these however require further validation. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

GIS applied to geotechnical and environmental risk management in a Brazilian oil pipeline

The paper presents the development of a decision support system for the management of geotechnical and environmental risks in oil pipelines using a geographical information system. The system covers a 48.5 km long section of the So Paulo to Brasilia (OSBRA) oil pipeline, which crosses three municipalities in the northeast region of the So Paulo state (Brazil) and represents an area of 205.8 km(2). The spatial database was created using geo-processing procedures, surface and intrusive investigations and geotechnical reports. The risk assessment was based mainly on qualitative models (relative numeric weights and multicriteria decision analysis) and considered pluvial erosion, slope movements, soil corrosion and third party activities. The maps were produced at a scale of 1:10,000.

Contribution margin model applied to the marketing planning of a container liner carrier

The implementation of confidential contracts between a container liner carrier and its customers, because of the Ocean Shipping Reform Act (OSRA) 1998, demands a revision in the methodology applied in the carrier's planning of marketing and sales. The marketing and sales planning process should be more scientific and with a better use of operational research tools considering the selection of the customers under contracts, the duration of the contracts, the freight, and the container imbalances of these contracts are basic factors for the carrier's yield. This work aims to develop a decision support system based on a linear programming model to generate the business plan for a container liner carrier, maximizing the contribution margin of its freight.

PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL CALLED ACQUANETXL IN THE ALLOCATION OF WATER IN COMPLEX WATER RESOURCE SYSTEMS

This article presents a tool for the allocation analysis of complex systems of water resources, called AcquaNetXL, developed in the form of spreadsheet in which a model of linear optimization and another nonlinear were incorporated. The AcquaNetXL keeps the concepts and attributes of a decision support system. In other words, it straightens out the communication between the user and the computer, facilitates the understanding and the formulation of the problem, the interpretation of the results and it also gives a support in the process of decision making, turning it into a clear and organized process. The performance of the algorithms used for solving the problems of water allocation was satisfactory especially for the linear model.

Planning and operation of large-scale water distribution systems with preemptive priorities

This paper describes the development of an optimization model for the management and operation of a large-scale, multireservoir water supply distribution system with preemptive priorities. The model considers multiobjectives and hedging rules. During periods of drought, when water supply is insufficient to meet the planned demand, appropriate rationing factors are applied to reduce water supply. In this paper, a water distribution system is formulated as a network and solved by the GAMS modeling system for mathematical programming and optimization. A user-friendly interface is developed to facilitate the manipulation of data and to generate graphs and tables for decision makers. The optimization model and its interface form a decision support system (DSS), which can be used to configure a water distribution system to facilitate capacity expansion and reliability studies. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the utility and versatility of the developed DSS under different supply and demand scenarios, including applications to one of the largest water supply systems in the world, the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area Water Supply Distribution System in Brazil.

Parameterization and Evaluation of Predictions of DSSAT/CANEGRO for Brazilian Sugarcane

The DSSAT/CANEGRO model was parameterized and its predictions evaluated using data from five sugarcane (Sacchetrum spp.) experiments conducted in southern Brazil. The data used are from two of the most important Brazilian cultivars. Some parameters whose values were either directly measured or considered to be well known were not adjusted. Ten of the 20 parameters were optimized using a Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) algorithm using the leave-one-out cross-validation technique. Model predictions were evaluated using measured data of leaf area index (LA!), stalk and aerial dry mass, sucrose content, and soil water content, using bias, root mean squared error (RMSE), modeling efficiency (Eff), correlation coefficient, and agreement index. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT)/CANEGRO model simulated the sugarcane crop in southern Brazil well, using the parameterization reported here. The soil water content predictions were better for rainfed (mean RMSE = 0.122mm) than for irrigated treatment (mean RMSE = 0.214mm). Predictions were best for aerial dry mass (Eff = 0.850), followed by stalk dry mass (Eff = 0.765) and then sucrose mass (Eff = 0.170). Number of green leaves showed the worst fit (Eff = -2.300). The cross-validation technique permits using multiple datasets that would have limited use if used independently because of the heterogeneity of measures and measurement strategies.

Environmental management system and human resource practices: is there a link between them in four Brazilian companies?

The aim of this article is to analyze the theoretical model proposed by [Jabbour CJC, Santos FCA. Relationships between human resource dimensions and environmental management in companies: proposal of a model. Journal of Cleaner Production 2008;16(1):5 1-8.] based on the data collected in four Brazilian companies. This model investigates how the phases of the environmental management system can be linked to human resource practices in order to attain continuous improvement of a company`s environmental performance. Our aim is to contribute to a field, which has little empirical evidence. Although the interaction between the phases of the environmental management system and human resource practices is recommended by the specialized literature [Daily BE Huang S. Achieving sustainability through attention to human resource factors in environmental management. International Journal of Operations and Production Management 2001:21(12):1539-52.], the results indicate that most of the theoretical assumptions could not be confirmed in these Brazilian companies. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anthropogenic influences in a lagoonal environment: a multiproxy approach at the valo grande mouth, Cananéia-Iguape system (SE Brazil)

The Cananéia-Iguape system, SE Brazil, consists of a complex of lagoonal channels, located in a United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Biosphere Reserve. Nevertheless, important environmental changes have occurred in approximately the last 150 yrs due to the opening of an artificial channel, the Valo Grande, connecting the Ribeira de Iguape River to the lagoonal system. Our objective is to assess the historical record of the uppermost layers of the sedimentary column of the lagoonal system in order to determine the history of environmental changes caused by the opening of the artificial channel. In this sense, an integrated geochemical-faunal approach is used. The environmental changes led significant modifications in salinity, in changes of the depositional patterns of sediments and foraminiferal assemblages (including periods of defaunation), and, more drastically, in the input of heavy metals to the coastal environment. The concentrations Pb in the core analyzed here were up to two times higher than the values measured in contaminated sediments from the Santos estuary, the most industrialized coastal zone in Brazil.

An Environmental Friendly Procedure for Photometric Determination of Hypochlorite in Tap Water Employing a Miniaturized Multicommuted Flow Analysis Setup

A photometric procedure for the determination of ClO(-) in tap water employing a miniaturized multicommuted flow analysis setup and an LED-based photometer is described. The analytical procedure was implemented using leucocrystal violet (LCV; 4,4', 4 ''-methylidynetris (N, N-dimethylaniline), C(25)H(31)N(3)) as a chromogenic reagent. Solenoid micropumps employed for solutions propelling were assembled together with the photometer in order to compose a compact unit of small dimensions. After control variables optimization, the system was applied for the determination of ClO(-) in samples of tap water, and aiming accuracy assessment samples were also analyzed using an independent method. Applying the paired t-test between results obtained using both methods, no significant difference at the 95% confidence level was observed. Other useful features include low reagent consumption, 2.4 mu g of LCV per determination, a linear response ranging from 0.02 up to 2.0 mg L(-1) ClO(-), a relative standard deviation of 1.0% (n = 11) for samples containing 0.2 mg L(-1) ClO(-), a detection limit of 6.0 mu g L(-1) ClO(-), a sampling throughput of 84 determinations per hour, and a waste generation of 432 mu L per determination.

The family health system: analysis of a health survey in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background The Family Health Strategy (FHS) has been implemented as a strategy for primary care improvement in Brazil. Working with teams that include one doctor, one nurse, auxiliary nurses and community health workers in predefined areas, the FHS began in 1994 (known then as the Family Health Program) and has since grown considerably. The programme has only recently undergone assessment of outcomes, in contrast to more routine evaluations of infrastructure and process. Methods In 2001, a health survey was carried out in two administrative districts (with 190 000 inhabitants) on the outskirts of the city of Sao Paulo, both partially served by the FHS. Chronic morbidity (hypertension, diabetes and ischaemic heart disease) of individuals aged 15 or older was studied in areas covered and not covered by the programme. Stratified univariate analysis was applied for sex, age, education, income, working status and social insurance of these populations. Multivariate analysis was applied where applicable. Results There was a distinct pattern in the morbidity profile of these populations, suggesting differentiated self-knowledge on chronic disease status in the areas served by the FHS. Conclusion The FHS can increase population awareness of chronic diseases, possibly through increasing access to primary care.

Modeling Two-Oscillator Circadian Systems Entrained by Two Environmental Cycles

Several experimental studies have altered the phase relationship between photic and non-photic environmental, 24 h cycles (zeitgebers) in order to assess their role in the synchronization of circadian rhythms. To assist in the interpretation of the complex activity patterns that emerge from these ""conflicting zeitgeber'' protocols, we present computer simulations of coupled circadian oscillators forced by two independent zeitgebers. This circadian system configuration was first employed by Pittendrigh and Bruce (1959), to model their studies of the light and temperature entrainment of the eclosion oscillator in Drosophila. Whereas most of the recent experiments have restricted conflicting zeitgeber experiments to two experimental conditions, by comparing circadian oscillator phases under two distinct phase relationships between zeitgebers (usually 0 and 12 h), Pittendrigh and Bruce compared eclosion phase under 12 distinct phase relationships, spanning the 24 h interval. Our simulations using non-linear differential equations replicated complex non-linear phenomena, such as ""phase jumps'' and sudden switches in zeitgeber preferences, which had previously been difficult to interpret. Our simulations reveal that these phenomena generally arise when inter-oscillator coupling is high in relation to the zeitgeber strength. Manipulations in the structural symmetry of the model indicated that these results can be expected to apply to a wide range of system configurations. Finally, our studies recommend the use of the complete protocol employed by Pittendrigh and Bruce, because different system configurations can generate similar results when a ""conflicting zeitgeber experiment'' incorporates only two phase relationships between zeitgebers.

Ants Can Learn to Forage on One-Way Trails

The trails formed by many ant species between nest and food source are two-way roads on which outgoing and returning workers meet and touch each other all along. The way to get back home, after grasping a food load, is to take the same route on which they have arrived from the nest. In many species such trails are chemically marked by pheromones providing orientation cues for the ants to find their way. Other species rely on their vision and use landmarks as cues. We have developed a method to stop foraging ants from shuttling on two-way trails. The only way to forage is to take two separate roads, as they cannot go back on their steps after arriving at the food or at the nest. The condition qualifies as a problem because all their orientation cues-chemical, visual or any other - are disrupted, as all of them cannot but lead the ants back to the route on which they arrived. We have found that workers of the leaf-cutting ant Atta sexdens rubropilosa can solve the problem. They could not only find the alternative way, but also used the unidirectional traffic system to forage effectively. We suggest that their ability is an evolutionary consequence of the need to deal with environmental irregularities that cannot be negotiated by means of excessively stereotyped behavior, and that it is but an example of a widespread phenomenon. We also suggest that our method can be adapted to other species, invertebrate and vertebrate, in the study of orientation, memory, perception, learning and communication.

Development of a DNA-dosimeter system for monitoring the effects of solar-ultraviolet radiation

Solar radiation sustains and affects all life forms on Earth. In recent years, the increase in environmental levels of solar-UV radiation due to depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer, as a result of anthropogenic emission of destructive chemicals, has highlighted serious issues of social concern. This becomes still more dramatic in tropical and subtropical regions, where the intensity of solar radiation is higher. To better understand the impact of the harmful effects of solar-UV radiation on the DNA molecule, we developed a reliable biological monitoring system based on the exposure of plasmid DNA to artificial UV lamps and sunlight. The determination and quanti. cation of different types of UV photoproducts were performed through the use of specific DNA repair enzymes and antibodies. As expected, a significant number of CPDs and 6-4PPs was observed when the DNA-dosimeter system was exposed to increasing doses of UVB radiation. Moreover, CPDs could also be clearly detected in plasmid DNA when this system was exposed to either UVA or directly to sunlight. Interestingly, although less abundant, 6-4PPs and oxidative DNA damage were also generated after exposure to both UVA and sunlight. These results confirm the genotoxic potential of sunlight, reveal that UVA may also produce CPDs and 6-4PPs directly in naked DNA and demonstrate the applicability of a DNA-dosimeter system for monitoring the biological effects of solar-UV radiation.

Aspergillus nidulans as a biological system to detect the genotoxic effects of mercury fumes on eukaryotes

Mercury (Hg) pollution is one of the most serious environmental problems. Due to public concern prompted by the symptoms displayed by people who consumed contaminated fish in Minamata, Japan in 1956, Hg pollution has since been kept under constant surveillance. However, despite considerable accumulation of knowledge on the noxious effects of ingested or inhaled Hg, especially for humans, there is virtually nothing known about the genotoxic effects of Hg. Because increased mitotic crossing over is assumed to be the first step leading to carcinogenesis, we used a sensitive short-term test (homozygotization index) to look for DNA alterations induced by Hg fumes. In one Aspergillus nidulans diploid strain (UT448//UT184), the effects of the Hg fumes appeared scattered all over the DNA, causing 3.05 times more recombination frequencies than the mean for other strains. Another diploid (Dp II- I//UT184) was little affected by Hg. This led us to hypothesize that a genetic factor present in the UT184 master strain genome, close to the nicB8 genetic marker, is responsible for this behavior. These findings corroborate our previous findings that the homozygotization index can be used as a bioassay for rapid and efficient assessment of ecotoxicological hazards.

Protecting a quantum state from environmental noise by an incompatible finite-time measurement

We show that measurements of finite duration performed on an open two-state system can protect the initial state from a phase-noisy environment, provided the measured observable does not commute with the perturbing interaction. When the measured observable commutes with the environmental interaction, the finite-duration measurement accelerates the rate of decoherence induced by the phase noise. For the description of the measurement of an observable that is incompatible with the interaction between system and environment, we have found an approximate analytical expression, valid at zero temperature and weak coupling with the measuring device. We have tested the validity of the analytical predictions against an exact numerical approach, based on the superoperator-splitting method, that confirms the protection of the initial state of the system. When the coupling between the system and the measuring apparatus increases beyond the range of validity of the analytical approximation, the initial state is still protected by the finite-time measurement, according with the exact numerical calculations.